Not "An Amarki Heritage Minute"?
I don't think he's making that mistake. The normal distribution you're talking about is caused by the fact that of the 36 permutations, most of them correspond to numbers near the mean value of seven.Okay, I think I see the misunderstanding. You're correctly treating multiple dice rolls as independent events. However, the sum of multiple dice rolls is NOT a uniform distribution - it's more of a normal distribution (not quite one, but taking # dice rolls to the limit, you get a continuous normal distribution). Two 6-sided dice rolls may have 36 possible permutations, but the sum of them "2d6" only has outcomes possible from 2 to 12, with the higher probabilities trending toward the mean.
Yes, I do. That said, I hope you take my meaning. A medium cruiser built using near-future technology may be better than an Excelsior; it may even be slightly better than a refit Excelsior. But it won't be so much better than an Excelsior that it justifies a whole new ship project and several new berths to be constructed in the next few years.
There's a complication.You know, you'd think that garrison requirements would be based on the sum of BOTH local (member fleet) assets and Starfleet assets. Assuming that's the case, then letting member fleets build their Excelsiors and Constitution-Bs would lower - or at least, delay - Starfleet defense requirements. Refits for Constellations would also really help with increasing local defense (but not Miranda refits, sadly).
Unfortunately, it might be too late to affect the expected 2311 garrison requirements bump, but this is something to keep in mind for ones after that.
Member world coordination office might also help.
Yes- and hopefully they contribute defense to the Apiata sector. Moreover, they are not strictly Apiata outposts as such; they are Federation outposts in or near Apiata space. This is an important distinction.Technically, we did build 4 outposts in the CBZ.
Also technically, those outposts are now Apiata outposts.
I'm aware of this, but it doesn't invalidate my point. What I'm getting at is, we put a lot of effort both into building new berths in the first few years, and in creating an entire new shipyard or two. And it's paid off- we now have space to build as many ships as we can find crew and special resources for!Actually, Utopia Planitia by itself had an inefficient pp cost for the berths it provided. It cost 135pp, while the equivalent in berths in other shipyards at that time is 90pp (now would likely cost 100pp), although that excludes the additional research team (which typically cost 10-15pp). The main benefit of Utopia Planitia is that berth expansions are expected to be cheaper there than in other shipyards.
Putting the new starbase close to Indorion or Apiata space might make a lot of sense. In either of those locations it would serve as a base to monitor and interdict Cardassian traffic to one or more of their proxies. And putting the starbase near them might well get us a head start on HAVING a starbase in their sector when they join the Federation.CBZ Starbase doesn't make sense since there is nowhere in the new CBZ to put it yet and it might end up being behind the borderzone later. Better a starbase at Betazed and one at Indoria after they join.
Put this way. Sooner or later, the Cardassians will decide to fight us. When that day comes, I very much doubt we will feel ANY desire to say "wow, thank Q we didn't put that extra starbase on the Cardassian border." There are a lot more situations I can imagine where we'd be thanking Q for the extra starbase near Apiata or Indorion space than there are where we'd be doing it for a starbase in Betazoid space.Well I wouldn't say it makes no sense at all, since whatever sector the starbase ends up in you still have a starbase there, and it's still valuable. And until it does, it's a hard point in the CBZ that ships can retreat to. (On the other hand, the Apiata are also now a hard point that ships can retreat to, so.)
Agreed. It's not a bad choice per se, it's just that in my honest opinion it's not the best choice.Betazed is a reasonable alternative, though. If nothing else, it would mean we don't have to station any ships there for now.
Another point is that the available shipbuilding resources of the Federation are not fully capped by the physically available resources. A lot depends on politics, and us getting the funds/materials to build another ship doesn't mean anyone else decided NOT to build that ship.That would certainly make it less desirable, and it makes sense. Resources don't just appear out of nowhere after all. If Starfleet has more, logically member worlds have less. I suspect it's also influenced by civilian shipping to some degree, and we might get a better look at those mechanics with the Member World Coordination office.
At least... not yet. Maybe ten years from now we'll be able to do that out of pocket change.By voting for the build schedule people are voting for, they are committing to the allocation of resources request. You don't start an Excelsior and seven cruisers in the same year without asking for some extra resources.
Ah see I assumed u10 meant it is 1 through 10 and could be positive or negative not -10 to 10, the first would not include 0 while the second would include 0 as a valueThis is a bit off. d10*d{-1,1} doesn't include 0. It should be d{-10..10}, for 2d{-10..10} (or 2u10, but I don't think AnyDice supports that syntax).
You know, thinking about it, the only reason the Klingons have for going to war with the Romulans is weak in the extreme, however due to the fact that there wouldn't be much in the way of negative repercussions for them starting a war, they will go ahead and do so. Currently, the Romulans won't strike first due to the Kitomer accords between the Federation and the Klingons. Now, due to the thawing relations between the Federation and the Romulans, combined with the fact that due to the Romulans still recovering from the biophague, it is likely that they aren't prepared for a war if it does occur, there is an opportunity of ending this war, before it can begin. I propose that a pact be created, akin to the Kitomer accords, between the United Federation of Planets and the Romulan Star Empire. This pact would be created not only to normalise the relations between our two powers, but to prevent the beginning of a war that, at its base, is utterly pointless and lead to the deaths of thousands, if not millions of individuals within both sides of the conflict.
We're building an Excelsior this turn. It's just that the Excelsior was higher priority than the Connie-Bs so if we didn't get the infusion we'd ax some Connies instead. And budget increase is being seriously discussed.Instead of doing that one every turn you guys should really go for an increased budget... (And if I remember correctly you don't even want to use this turns resources on an Execlsior which makes me rather doubtful this is a good idea anyhow)
She probably should have been – (dash) they didn't have to go through this.
Instead of doing that one every turn you guys should really go for an increased budget... (And if I remember correctly you don't even want to use this turns resources on an Execlsior which makes me rather doubtful this is a good idea anyhow)
If I remember correctly most Klingons war's have much more to do with internal politics than external issues - war stabilises the Klingon empire and puts an (temporary) end to the endless infighting. And I would guess that the Roms wouldn't be to unhappy about it either since it also legitimize's their own actions/positions.
(Provided the war doesn't escalate to TOTAL WAR, BURN AND SALT THE FIELDS)
What do you think? Are people chomping at the bit to go for a Budget Increase that we have to roll for, or would you rather take a sure bet option like the Coordination Office?
Executive summary: he's right. Adding +1 to a ship's stats matters most when the DC is very close to seven plus the existing bonus. If the DC is more like "you have to roll an eleven," then the probability of success is small either way. If the DC is "you have to roll a three," then the probability of success is large either way.
But if the DC is "you have to roll a six," or some other intermediate number, then adding a +1 to an ability score causes a considerably larger jump in probability for that particular roll. Because now you have to roll a five or higher instead of a six or higher, and the probability of accomplishing that is quite a bit more favorable (30/36 instead of 26/36, or 84% instead of 72%).
There's a complication.
One thing to remember is that the Starfleet defense requirement targets are based on Starfleet presence. See... the Defense statistic doesn't have much to do with how militarily safe you feel with the ship orbiting your world. That's why Risan corvettes have high Defense despite having puny armament. Because it's not about whether the ship is physically powerful. It has to do with the ship's ability to respond to crises and to patrol the sector.
If a member world has a very strong fleet with high total Defense, and is capable of meeting all its own Defense needs, but Starfleet is contributing zero Defense to the sector... That's a good argument for seceding from the Federation, or at least for ceasing to fund Starfleet! Because they're not actually doing anything to help you secure, map, colonize, or patrol your immediate region of space.
So I wouldn't be so hasty to talk about counting member fleets towards sector defense. If we create a situation where we try to meet sector defense needs by bulking up member fleets, we may end up with various powers losing interest in supporting a Starfleet that has no presence in their sector.
Of course, one can make the case that if your nation is only stable in times of war, your nation should look into changing internal policy.
The Romulans are chronically distrustful and it has been roughly four years in game since the biophage crisis ended. I see no reason to assume the Romulans are "unprepared" for war, especially since the Klingons have been harassing them and vice versa.You know, thinking about it, the only reason the Klingons have for going to war with the Romulans is weak in the extreme, however due to the fact that there wouldn't be much in the way of negative repercussions for them starting a war, they will go ahead and do so. Currently, the Romulans won't strike first due to the Kitomer accords between the Federation and the Klingons. Now, due to the thawing relations between the Federation and the Romulans, combined with the fact that due to the Romulans still recovering from the biophague, it is likely that they aren't prepared for a war if it does occur...
While I would not be opposed to this, or to the formation of a trilateral pact along similar lines, getting the Romulans to agree is going to be REALLY HARD....there is an opportunity of ending this war, before it can begin. I propose that a pact be created, akin to the Kitomer accords, between the United Federation of Planets and the Romulan Star Empire. This pact would be created not only to normalise the relations between our two powers, but to prevent the beginning of a war that, at its base, is utterly pointless and lead to the deaths of thousands, if not millions of individuals within both sides of the conflict.
Actually, this is exactly the situation where we would reasonably use the "request resources" option, because we are specifically planning to "surge" an unusually large amount of expensive construction. Most of the time it would make more sense to request a budget increase, I agree- in the long run we're better off paying 30pp every turn or so to build up high income over time, as opposed to spending 20pp nearly every turn to get a handout on that specific turn.Instead of doing that one every turn you guys should really go for an increased budget... (And if I remember correctly you don't even want to use this turns resources on an Execlsior which makes me rather doubtful this is a good idea anyhow)
That's a relevant point. While the Federation is basically pacifist, the Romulans and Klingons very much are not. While it would be fitting and proper for us to try and discourage them from going to war, we should not assume that a Romulan-Klingon war in and of itself represents a disastrous state of affairs. Among other things, it gives us a chance to earn gratitude from both sides in 5-10 years by brokering the peace agreement.If I remember correctly most Klingons war's have much more to do with internal politics than external issues - war stabilises the Klingon empire and puts an (temporary) end to the endless infighting. And I would guess that the Roms wouldn't be to unhappy about it either since it also legitimize's their own actions/positions.
Yes, but for the Klingons that would entail dismantling the Great Houses and probably also the entire 'honor' culture that dominates their society. Given that Klingons don't seem to consider getting killed in a war to be a bad thing, it's not easy to convince them that it's important to reform their society so as to reduce the risk of getting killed in a war.Of course, one can make the case that if your nation is only stable in times of war, your nation should look into changing internal policy.
Yes, and he was entirely correct to do so, because it is the set of five out of 36 permutations that lead to rolling an "8" that is the increase in probability of success, which is what he was talking about.I already agreed that there are diminishing returns of stat increases for a given DC.
The confusion lies in this particular quote: "2d6+2>11 is 2d6 against 9 , 2d6+3>11 is 2d6 vs 8, which is 5/36 or ~13.8%"
First, I was treating DC as inclusive, i.e. 2d6+3>=11 rather than 2d6+3>11.
Second, he was actually only providing the probability of 2d6+3=11, or 2d6=8...
That would probably have ramifications in the political system, which is Oneiros's main mechanism of "moderating" the quest and preventing us from gaming it too blatantly.I'm aware of what the defense stat means. Though I do find it odd that core worlds, even martial ones, could in theory be "satisfied" with a bunch of what would effectively be fast cargo ships. Imagine a ship with stats 1C 1S 1H 1L 1P 6D. I mean, yes there are other mechanics that disincentive this, but it's still an interesting quirk of the garrison requirements system.
The point is that the member worlds expect Starfleet to provide relevant, tangible benefits in return for their financial and logistical support. That support can be scientific, economic, political, or military- it doesn't matter. But if a given member world does not receive this support, and is relying entirely on their own homeworld fleet that they own in fee simple...That's quite the exaggeration that member worlds would cease funding Starfleet with larger member fleets, especially when Starfleet's main purpose is exploration and effectively a shared mobile military. After all, it's not like you need armies/navies/etc. in every major city in the modern world. (That may not be the perfect analogy, but I deem it close enough.)
That may well prove to be the case, and I certainly hope it does.But I do think that improved member fleets can delay increased garrison requirements.
I'm aware of what the defense stat means. Though I do find it odd that core worlds, even martial ones, could in theory be "satisfied" with a bunch of what would effectively be fast cargo ships. Imagine a ship with stats 1C 1S 1H 1L 1P 6D. I mean, yes there are other mechanics that disincentive this, but it's still an interesting quirk of the garrison requirements system./QUOTE]
Yes, and he was entirely correct to do so, because it is the set of five out of 36 permutations that lead to rolling an "8" that is the increase in probability of success, which is what he was talking about.
That would probably have ramifications in the political system, which is Oneiros's main mechanism of "moderating" the quest and preventing us from gaming it too blatantly.
The point is that the member worlds expect Starfleet to provide relevant, tangible benefits in return for their financial and logistical support. That support can be scientific, economic, political, or military- it doesn't matter. But if a given member world does not receive this support, and is relying entirely on their own homeworld fleet that they own in fee simple...
Why would they feel any compelling reason to continue supporting Starfleet?