Not actually true. A bog-standard Excelsior loses significantly more often than not.
I'm a bit surprised by that result. Not denying it outright, but surprised.
The
Excelsior has Combat 6 Hull 4 Shields 5, the
Lorgot has Combat 7 Hull 3 Shields 5. Given how combat reductions as a function of damage go, the
Excelsior can take six hits before it starts losing firepower, with three hits remaining before 'boom.' The
Lorgot can take five, and its combat power drops off more dramatically with each of the three successive hits after that point.
While the
Lorgot has superior combat power, its hit probability (all else being equal) SHOULD only be 7/13. To win the battle, the
Lorgot basically needs to land seven hits faster than the
Excelsior can land six, because whichever ship crosses that line of diminished combat power has greatly reduced odds of survival... ah. I begin to see, though I can't clearly articulate the issue.
What percentage did you actually arrive at?
@SuperSonicSound
Put this way. Your argument regarding the
Centaur-As makes sense in the context of our decision to do the refits. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but it's coherent. It's coherent because there weren't very many
Centaurs around. But for ship classes where we've already built a dozen of them, the argument breaks down.
Look at
Excelsiors. Right now we're building them in large numbers because they are literally the best we've got, and the best we are going to have for some years to come, and we have good mechanical synergies that make them even better. We're not going to be changing that decision- realistically we will lay down at least one
Excelsior a year until a superior replacement becomes widely available, which won't be for quite a few years to come. By the time it happens, we will probably have something like 15-20
Excelsiors lying around. Maybe even more.
So what happens when the proposal comes around in 2325 or so to refit the
Excelsiors?
If you say "no, it would be better to build new
Ambassadors than refitted
Excelsiors," you're right... But that doesn't actually answer the question "what about those
Excelsiors?" It would be idiotic to scrap each
Excelsior and build an
Ambassador replacement one-for-one, because then we'd wind up with a fleet roughly half the size it could have been, and a lot of functional, useful ships would be going on the garbage heap.
So the old
Excelsiors will still be around in 2330 and 2340- just like the old
Mirandas are still around right now, and are unlikely to be replaced by new escorts of any type for the foreseeable future.
In that case, refitting
Excelsiors makes a heck of a lot of sense... because it extends their useful life, and increases the probability that they will survive and succeed when sent into difficult situations.
...
Now, if you look
VERY far forward, say to 2350, maybe by then it will be very easy for us to build a 2.1 (or 2.4) megaton cruiser hull that effortlessly outpoints any plausible
Excelsior refit.
By that point I'm all in favor of a new design as opposed to a refit, because by that point the original
Excelsiors will be old ships and we'll have gotten our money's worth out of them. Retiring them in favor of sleeker, more powerful ships will start to make sense, just as it now makes sense to retire
Constellations in order to crew
Renaissance-class cruisers once we actually have enough Rennies to start filling the
Constellations' role.
At that point, by all means let us build a 2.1 to 2.4 megaton cruiser of high performance. We can call it... the
Lakota-class!