As I go through the fun and delight of filling out the full set of shipyard orders for the other factions, I'm going to quickly check to make sure: no one has any special objections to member races building Constitution-Bs in their own yards?
Not at all. Better ships are always great for the home fleets of our members :)
 
First off, I'm not advocating for low reliability in favor of stats, but I need to point out that this math analysis is off.



3% failure repair rate means 95% reliability, due to 60% chance of at least serious failure upon hilarious breakdown event.

Also, starbases can do some minor repairs, and as research is pored into them, they'll be able to repair more.

edit: Also, it's likely that hilarious breakdowns are themselves events that can be passed, so the actual serious failure rate is probably lower.



This isn't correct and it's way too simplistic. There are multiple rolls involved in an event, and there are at least two that are affected by the ship's stats: the response roll, and the event success roll(s).

Information we know so far (AFAIK):
Sci-Fi - To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) | Page 301
Sci-Fi - To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) | Page 302 (analysis)

The response roll for an unplanned event is a (2d6 + <defense> + <presence or science>) >= 3d6. For a measly Constellation, this is 2d6+5>=3d6, which is ~70%. Incrementing one of the relevant stats results in 2d6+6>=3d6, which is ~78%.

The event roll is 2d6 + <relevant stat> >= difficulty DC. Difficulty DC is highly variable, but the example shows a hard DC of 11 for non-EC-ships like Constellations. For science hard difficulty event, this is 2d6+2>=11, which is ~28%. Incrementing science results in 2d6+3>=11, which is ~42%.

This is all still a very incomplete analysis because it depends on the ship, all the possible difficulty DCs, how the event handles multiple ships, etc., and we don't even know what the response roll is for a planned event.

But clearly, even a single stat increment can have a large impact.

It was a quick and fast analysis, and I stated my assumptions for reasons. The one year rate was intended to be a cost that covered the breakdown is a non-event and the breakdown is the ship blowing up.

Also some events are 'normal' ship operations, so we don't always need to roll responses.

2d6+2>11 is 2d6 against 9 , 2d6+3>11 is 2d6 vs 8, which is 5/36 or ~13.8%, this is almost the best odds for the curve of a 2d6, but the bonus is smaller at lower and higher numbers as you are needed to roll easy numbers, or are likely to fail harder ones either way.

A complete analysis really needs someone to count occurrences of the different kinds of events, estimate the likely difficulties, and conduct a monte-carlo analysis.
 
Ok, so snakepit thoughts. Looks like we're locked in on a Excelsior requisition.

We SHOULDN'T build the near-Dawair colony unless that situation has been resolved without using that card, because we want that as diplo bait. This WAS a cultural botch that we're partly responsible for as it turns out.

We want a budget increase. It's been a while since we tried and 30pp for even a 30/20 increase in yearly income is a good deal, and it's been better than that.

Need more berths as always. Location depends on best deal.

And I'm still angling for a Betazed Starbase (to free up ships and match the pattern) or CBZ starbase (to provide a logistics hub and field repair base).

Notably the Indorians do NOT have a proper starbase and are still in what the Cardassians see as disputed territory so the minute they join fully we'll want to start on that starbase.

I am unsure if getting a new tech team is needed. We're not going to need to stop any teams this turn, but that's because still had an immense surplus and I'm not sure if we're going to have one after the next research turn. If we do get one, lets go for Starbase Design. It's the last thing we don't have. Yes, techs there start expensive, but they're quite powerful.
 
not necessarily, you see the Reni is our Light Cruiser and will be our main combatant, the ship I'm discussing will be a middle ground between the explorer and light crusier....able to be built in numbers our explorer can't and be able to put up more of a fight than the Reni and Constitution-B.
The Renaissance is actually very close to our CURRENT Excelsior design in performance. There isn't a lot of room for a ship "in between" the two classes. On the other hand, the Renaissance is brand-new- newer than that, it's so new it doesn't exist yet! And the Excelsior design is over twenty years old. A refitted Excelsior-A might well be quite a bit stronger... and one of our other options in the immediate future is to start the Ambassador-class explorers.

Put it this way. Here is your problem. This is the statline of the Rennies.
Renaissance 2320-2360 [330m 1m t]

C5 S3 H4 L5 P4 D5
Cost[100br, 80sr, 3 years], Crew [O-3, E-5, T-3]

This is the statline of the Excelsiors.
Excelsior 2287-Now [511m, 2.3m t]

C6 S5 H4 L5 P5 D6
Cost [230br 150sr, 4 years], Crew [O-6, E-5, T-5]
...

Now, suppose we design a medium cruiser that's half way between the Excelsior and the Renaissance in performance. For the sake of argument, EXACTLY in between the two classes, even though that's mathematically impossible since stat numbers are integers.

We'd have, uh... Combat 5.5, Science 4, Hull 4, Shields 5, Presence 4.5, Defense 5.5, costing 165 bulk and 115 special resources, with a mass of 1.65 million tons, taking 3.5 years to build. The crew requires 4.5 units of officers, 5 units of enlisted, and 4 units of techs.

Gee, that sounds useless. We could build four or five Renaissances for the resource cost of three of these "medium cruisers." The "medium cruisers" displace Excelsiors from berths (bad because our doctrine favors EXPLORERS, not cruisers), take about as long to build, and take comparable amounts of crew.

Of course, this is an artificial example, because the Renaissance actually is nearly as good as an Excelsior, despite being much much cheaper. The reason is that as noted, the Renaissance is a newer than brand new design, while the Excelsior is a twenty year old design- there's a thirty year gap between the introduction of the prototypes.

So let's compare ships of the same generation.

Again, here are the Renaissances.
Renaissance 2320-2360 [330m 1m t]

C5 S3 H4 L5 P4 D5
Cost[100br, 80sr, 3 years], Crew [O-3, E-5, T-3]

And here are the Ambassadors.
Ambassador 2325-Now [524m, 3.1 3.0m t]

C7 S7 H5 L8 P7 D7
Cost [310br, 240sr, 4 years], Crew [O-6, E-6, T-6]
(note that it LOOKS like, with a bit of customization, we can slim down the Ambassador to three million tons even, allowing us to fit them in our existing berths).

Now, a "midpoint" ship between these would have a mass of two million tons. Its statline would be Combat 6, Science 5, Hull 4.5, Shields 6.5, Presence 5.5, Defense 6. It would cost 205 bulk and 160 special resources, and take 3.5 years to build. And require 4.5 units of officers, 5.5 units of enlisted, and 4.5 units of techs.

...In other words, allowing for a bit of rounding error, it would be an Excelsior. It would weigh about as much as an Excelsior, have almost the same stats, and be only very, very slightly tougher and more capable and cheaper. In other words, it would be basically the same as a refit version of the Excelsior that uses 2320 technology instead of 2380 technology.

Let me recap that. If we custom-designed a 'medium cruiser' halfway between the near-future Renaissances and Ambassadors that will make up the cutting edge of our fleet in 2330 or so... then that medium cruiser would be little or no different from an Excelsior


...

Now, we COULD design a medium cruiser that was smaller (say, 1.5 million tons), and sure, that would cost significantly less than an Excelsior. But it would also offer only a very, very narrow performance increase over the Renaissance-class. And we'd have to spend... I don't know, easily 60-100 political will to get the project started, plus needing build ANY berths capable of handling this new ship, aside from the ones we're already using for Excelsior/Ambassador production.

It just isn't worth it.
 
We want a budget increase. It's been a while since we tried and 30pp for even a 30/20 increase in yearly income is a good deal, and it's been better than that.

Need more berths as always. Location depends on best deal.

A 1mt on Tellar Prime should be a cheap 10pp.

And I'm still angling for a Betazed Starbase (to free up ships and match the pattern) or CBZ starbase (to provide a logistics hub and field repair base).

Trouble with a CBZ base is that the CBZ is moving around. What was the CBZ last year is now Apiata sector.

I'd like an Academy expansion. Agree if we get a tech team it should be Starbase.

A Betazoid starbase is a good idea before 2311 because we've been told defense requirements for all key systems go up that year.
 
[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard
[X][NAME1] Thalisar
Why not name an Explorer after an explorer?

[X][NAME2] Avandar

[X] Rear Admiral Shey ch'Tharvasse
[X][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype
 
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We don't have the SR for six Connie-A's so it has to be the B. Plus the whole thread has been talking about ConnieBees so Oneiros would have to be a jerk to take it as regular Constitutions.
Furthermore, Briefvoice's original vote actually specifies exactly which type of Connie they are, it's just that most of us have voted the plan name rather than the full details.

Yes. The Cardassian designs certainly mean the Rennie will have to fill the "light" category.
That decision was made for us by the fact that we squeezed them into one-megaton berths. They're not as powerful as explorers, nothing we do can change that... and yet they are comparable in performance to the Cardassian Jaldun, which is a physically larger ship. And probably superior as utility cruisers (let us not forget the utility role) to the handful of combat-cruisers the Cardassians possess.

[I am hereby calling the Kaldar-class ships combat-cruisers, by the way, to indicate that they don't appear to be much bigger than the Jalduns, clearly are not capital ships, but are more focused on fighting instead of utility.]

Unless Intelligence has totally missed half the Cardassian fleet in their intelligence report or something, we have as many explorers as they have heavy cruisers and battlecruisers combined. If we keep building, then once we have a solid core of modern cruisers, our explorers are quite capable of handling the Cardassians' handful of combat cruisers and battlecruisers one-on-one, while the rest of our fleet mops the floor with the Jalduns and smaller fry.

[snip stick figure drawing]
I am a man of my word. Also, I am now hypnotized by the stick figures.

If you pick one of them, I will vote for that one. Otherwise, I will vote for Selnas, because Gear.

As I go through the fun and delight of filling out the full set of shipyard orders for the other factions, I'm going to quickly check to make sure: no one has any special objections to member races building Constitution-Bs in their own yards?
Why would I ever, ever object to that? :)

Ok, so snakepit thoughts. Looks like we're locked in on a Excelsior requisition.

We SHOULDN'T build the near-Dawair colony unless that situation has been resolved without using that card, because we want that as diplo bait. This WAS a cultural botch that we're partly responsible for as it turns out.

We want a budget increase. It's been a while since we tried and 30pp for even a 30/20 increase in yearly income is a good deal, and it's been better than that.
Agreed.

Need more berths as always. Location depends on best deal.
More berths would be nice, but I think they need to get in line behind:

1) Budget- we need to ask for more resources, both in the short term and maybe in the long term.

2) Border defense- especially any permanent installations that increase overall Defense. A starbase on the Cardassian border zone is a really good idea. A starbase at Betazed is ALSO a good idea, but we could really use at least one explicitly Federation owned strongpoint in the area we're trying to exert some control over. Right now the only thing on that border the Cardassians can't just casually brush away is our free-ranging explorer corps. We have no permanent security.

3) Diplomacy- we really, REALLY need to get as many of the species on our own border affiliated with us as possible. Some of us seem willing to accept a situation where the border species split 50/50 between us and the Cardassians. The problem is that this will result in the Cardassians having ALL the species closer to their own space (such as the Bajorans), AND half of 'ours.' Also, diplomatic pushes to neutrals will hopefully increase our total level of contact with them, so that we aren't caught completely by surprise if it turns out the Cardassians are trying to suborn them into attacking us. As we were surprised with the Dawiar, and the Sydraxians, and effectively by the Lecarre who the Cardassians got to first.

4) Academy- Briefvoice is not wrong about us needing lots of crew, although with so many affiliates likely to join in the next 1-5 years, IF we make an effort, it may not matter so much.

Right now, we have enough berths to build a huge force of cruisers and explorers over the next three to six years. So many that we're struggling to provide the resources to assemble them and the people to crew them all. That means, on the one hand, that we need more crew... but on the other hand, it ALSO means that we don't pressingly need more berths until we actually have more crew and resources on a regular basis.

And I'm still angling for a Betazed Starbase (to free up ships and match the pattern) or CBZ starbase (to provide a logistics hub and field repair base).

Notably the Indorians do NOT have a proper starbase and are still in what the Cardassians see as disputed territory so the minute they join fully we'll want to start on that starbase.
Agreed.

I am unsure if getting a new tech team is needed. We're not going to need to stop any teams this turn, but that's because still had an immense surplus and I'm not sure if we're going to have one after the next research turn. If we do get one, lets go for Starbase Design. It's the last thing we don't have. Yes, techs there start expensive, but they're quite powerful.
I largely agree, but I think tech teams need to get in line behind the budget.

We can burn through even hundreds of surplus RP eventually, provided we have a strong border. Also, we tend to get free tech teams when species join the Federation, and sometimes from omakes.

Trouble with a CBZ base is that the CBZ is moving around. What was the CBZ last year is now Apiata sector.
Yes, but if the border zone moves, the starbase is still there- only now it's a starbase providing defense for one of our own sectors.

A Betazoid starbase is a good idea before 2311 because we've been told defense requirements for all key systems go up that year.
You're not wrong- I'm a little conflicted myself.
 
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[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard

[X][NAME1] Salnas
[X][NAME2] Avandar

[X][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype
2309Q1 - Start an Excelsior build in Utopia Planitia berth vacated by the Caitian ship; allow Tellarites to begin building an Excelsior for themselves in Tellar Prime berth.
2309Q2 - Start three Constitution-B builds: 1 in new Lor'Vela Orbital Construction Facility 1mt shipyard opening in Q2, 1 in UP 1mt berth after the Yukikaze finishes its refit, and 1 in new 3mt UP berth opening in Q2
2309Q4 - Start three Constitution-B builds; in SF berths freed up by launching Centaur-Bs; 1 in 40 Eridani berth. Start Renaissance prototype in new UP 1mt berth opening in Q2.

[X] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu
 
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Regarding building a Starbase at Betazoid, if the system Defense requirements are expected to go up in 2311, let's hold off building there until 2310, or until it's the only place left to build one. At D3, it's the lowest requirement we have, and each other location will free up 5 defense of ships.
 
The Renaissance is actually very close to our CURRENT Excelsior design in performance. There isn't a lot of room for a ship "in between" the two classes. On the other hand, the Renaissance is brand-new- newer than that, it's so new it doesn't exist yet! And the Excelsior design is over twenty years old. A refitted Excelsior-A might well be quite a bit stronger... and one of our other options in the immediate future is to start the Ambassador-class explorers.

Put it this way. Here is your problem. This is the statline of the Rennies.
Renaissance 2320-2360 [330m 1m t]

C5 S3 H4 L5 P4 D5
Cost[100br, 80sr, 3 years], Crew [O-3, E-5, T-3]

This is the statline of the Excelsiors.
Excelsior 2287-Now [511m, 2.3m t]

C6 S5 H4 L5 P5 D6
Cost [230br 150sr, 4 years], Crew [O-6, E-5, T-5]

...

Now, suppose we design a medium cruiser that's half way between the Excelsior and the Renaissance in performance. For the sake of argument, EXACTLY in between the two classes, even though that's mathematically impossible since stat numbers are integers.

We'd have, uh... Combat 5.5, Science 4, Hull 4, Shields 5, Presence 4.5, Defense 5.5, costing 165 bulk and 115 special resources, with a mass of 1.65 million tons, taking 3.5 years to build. The crew requires 4.5 units of officers, 5 units of enlisted, and 4 units of techs.

Gee, that sounds useless. We could build four or five Renaissances for the resource cost of three of these "medium cruisers." The "medium cruisers" displace Excelsiors from berths (bad because our doctrine favors EXPLORERS, not cruisers), take about as long to build, and take comparable amounts of crew.

Of course, this is an artificial example, because the Renaissance actually is nearly as good as an Excelsior, despite being much much cheaper. The reason is that as noted, the Renaissance is a newer than brand new design, while the Excelsior is a twenty year old design- there's a thirty year gap between the introduction of the prototypes.

So let's compare ships of the same generation.

Again, here are the Renaissances.
Renaissance 2320-2360 [330m 1m t]

C5 S3 H4 L5 P4 D5
Cost[100br, 80sr, 3 years], Crew [O-3, E-5, T-3]

And here are the Ambassadors.
Ambassador 2325-Now [524m, 3.1 3.0m t]

C7 S7 H5 L8 P7 D7
Cost [310br, 240sr, 4 years], Crew [O-6, E-6, T-6]
(note that it LOOKS like, with a bit of customization, we can slim down the Ambassador to three million tons even, allowing us to fit them in our existing berths).

Now, a "midpoint" ship between these would have a mass of two million tons. Its statline would be Combat 6, Science 5, Hull 4.5, Shields 6.5, Presence 5.5, Defense 6. It would cost 205 bulk and 160 special resources, and take 3.5 years to build. And require 4.5 units of officers, 5.5 units of enlisted, and 4.5 units of techs.

...In other words, allowing for a bit of rounding error, it would be an Excelsior. It would weigh about as much as an Excelsior, have almost the same stats, and be only very, very slightly tougher and more capable and cheaper. In other words, it would be basically the same as a refit version of the Excelsior that uses 2320 technology instead of 2380 technology.

Let me recap that. If we custom-designed a 'medium cruiser' halfway between the near-future Renaissances and Ambassadors that will make up the cutting edge of our fleet in 2330 or so... then that medium cruiser would be little or no different from an Excelsior


...

Now, we COULD design a medium cruiser that was smaller (say, 1.5 million tons), and sure, that would cost significantly less than an Excelsior. But it would also offer only a very, very narrow performance increase over the Renaissance-class. And we'd have to spend... I don't know, easily 60-100 political will to get the project started, plus needing build ANY berths capable of handling this new ship, aside from the ones we're already using for Excelsior/Ambassador production.

It just isn't worth it.

You can't run ship design analysis this way and get anything meaningful, It's basically completely wrong.



Note the 6's in everything outside of hull which sits at 3. 98% reliability is better than what we can achieve on the Ambassador with current tech using the same saucer and secondary scale Oneiros showed us for the Ambi in the example ship project.

 
We don't have the SR for six Connie-A's so it has to be the B. Plus the whole thread has been talking about ConnieBees so Oneiros would have to be a jerk to take it as regular Constitutions.

Also we aren't actually allowed to build Constitution-As because the design is considered outdated. If we were allowed, I suspect we would have built some years ago. Those 23rd century engineers were miracle workers to squeeze those stats out of that technology.
 
Right now, we have enough berths to build a huge force of cruisers and explorers over the next three to six years. So many that we're struggling to provide the resources to assemble them and the people to crew them all. That means, on the one hand, that we need more crew... but on the other hand, it ALSO means that we don't pressingly need more berths until we actually have more crew and resources on a regular basis.

My estimates suggest we could use 1 more 1mt berth for the second Centaur refit and maybe sneak in another new Centaur-A build. That's why I suggest picking up one dirt cheap at Tellar Prime and call it good. I'm sure we can squeeze out 9pp (taking our discount into account).

Yes, but if the border zone moves, the starbase is still there- only now it's a starbase providing defense for one of our own sectors.

You're not wrong- I'm a little conflicted myself.

Okay, that's a good argument. I'd go for a CBZ Starbase.
 
What I want to know is just what the actual reliability rate on Gaeni ships is. Has this been ianswered on the SDB thread?
The Gaeni ships were designed before the reliability mechanic was implemented, so. Ironically, due to the way reliability is calculated, unless they get a low base reliability their ships won't be too unreliable, since they don't use many fudge factors.

Meanwhile, votes:
[X][EARTH] Allow the Excelsior build in Ana Font Shipyard


[X][NAME1] Salnas
[X][NAME2] Avandar

[X][BUILD] Excelsior, 6 Constitutions, Renaissance Prototype
2309Q1 - Start an Excelsior build in Utopia Planitia berth vacated by the Caitian ship; allow Tellarites to begin building an Excelsior for themselves in Tellar Prime berth.
2309Q2 - Start three Constitution-B builds: 1 in new Lor'Vela Orbital Construction Facility 1mt shipyard opening in Q2, 1 in UP 1mt berth after the Yukikaze finishes its refit, and 1 in new 3mt UP berth opening in Q2
2309Q4 - Start three Constitution-B builds; in SF berths freed up by launching Centaur-Bs; 1 in 40 Eridani berth. Start Renaissance prototype in new UP 1mt berth opening in Q2.

[X] Rear Admiral Hikaru Sulu

I strongly considered Patricia Chen, but, well, Sulu.
 
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