As above, but the Cardassians attack us anyway hoping to quickly force concessions from us and preserve the government's domestic reputation. We are ready for them, and fight until either the regime is overthrown due to war weariness, or we invade Cardassia and do it ourselves.
Oh boy, I can't wait to play Quadrant in Conflict: Cardassian Assault.
"Comrades! It is good to be seeing you all here today. And it will be even better to see you soon, breaking through that Starbase! Then we'll teach those Federation voles how to fight! They thought they could bully us into submission! They thought we'd give way and fold! But today, we'll show them the Cardassian Militia bows to no one! Today, we'll show them the might of the Cardassian Union! Get to your ships, we go to war!"
Also you think our logistics shortage is bad? If the hole we're in is the Grand Canyon, I'm willing to bet the Cardassian balance sheet looks like the Marianas Trench. Remember, no member merchant navies for them.
Also you think our logistics shortage is bad? If the hole we're in is the Grand Canyon, I'm willing to bet the Cardassian balance sheet looks like the Marianas Trench. Remember, no member merchant navies for them.
When we're discussing war with Cardassia, it's also important to note that a lot of important Cardassian assests are close to the border with the Federation. We know that the core Cardassian territories are somewhat resource starved, and that a lot of their new income comes from Bajor and the Gabriel Expanse. From a Cardassian perspective, a first strike by the Federation could be devastating to their industry.
They might see maintaining the Ashala Pact as a key defensive measure to prevent the Federation from snatching their valuable new territories and client away from them. (after all, it's what they'd do, in the Federation's shoes)
Also you think our logistics shortage is bad? If the hole we're in is the Grand Canyon, I'm willing to bet the Cardassian balance sheet looks like the Marianas Trench. Remember, no member merchant navies for them.
Looking at the intel tracker, they have what could potentially be 9x800kt yards (exact tonnage unconfirmed) that they could devote to spamming cargo if they could be replaced with more valuable yard types for combat ships. I'm eagerly waiting on that shipyard report to see exactly where they stand.
Something to note that I haven't calculated: there should be a cost to maintaining all of this (this is the GBZ report) that we can estimate based on the logistics explanation we were just given, and I wonder what proportion of their merchant fleet goes to it. We'll also find out the size of that merchant fleet in the upcoming fleet strength report.
12 Sm for Cruisers
5 Sm for Frigates
3 Sm for Auxiliaries
5 Sm & 5 Blk for Starbase
6 Sm & 6 Blk for Outposts
3 Sm & 6 Blk for Mining Colonies
? for Civilian Colony, using double the mining colony which would be 2S & 4Blk
+1 Blk per 1 BR income
+1 Sm per 1 SR income
+significantly more per currently under construction project
Total Static Requirement:
36 Sm & 21 Blk
Assumed Income Requirement (four 25-income colonies split evenly):
50 Sm & 50 Blk (38 Sm & 37 Blk if that civilian colony has no income)
Total Income and Static Requirement:
86 Sm & 71 Blk (74 Sm & 58 Blk if the civilian colony has no income)
8 Cargo Ship provide 64 Sm and 16 Blk
4 Freighter provide 16 Sm and 40 Blk
Total Capacity is 80 Sm and 56 Blk
The Cardassians are over capacity in the GBZ before even accounting for construction projects. Even with only three productive colonies instead of four, they'd still close to capacity and wouldn't have room for construction.
It's worth remembering that, IIRC since finding quotes in this quest is surprisingly hard sometimes, for the Cardassians numbers of cargo ships/freighters is slightly misleading. Their warships also tend to pull double duty as transports.
One of the downsides to running a huge sprawling federal union of many species is that we can't afford to concentrate too much on any one border. Especially when something like the Hishmeri Septs could come rolling out of the darkness at any time. For that reason I'm reluctant to overcommitt to this idea that duplicating industry spinward should be such a high priority.
The Cardassians are over capacity in the GBZ before even accounting for construction projects. Even with only three productive colonies instead of four, they'd still close to capacity and wouldn't have room for construction.
So what does this mean for our GBZ policy? Should we allow members to expand in the Gabriel Expanse more aggressively, since the Cardassians are already over their logistical capacity, and are probably going to be relatively quiescent? Or should we push for aggressive convoy raiding to try to stall them even further? Both?
Does this affect a potential decision to Green/Yellow Light civilian colonies?
This seems like a pretty important piece of intelligence, because it's a key factor restraining the Cardassian expansion in the GBZ.
It's worth remembering that, IIRC since finding quotes in this quest is surprisingly hard sometimes, for the Cardassians numbers of cargo ships/freighters is slightly misleading. Their warships also tend to pull double duty as transports.
Yeah, but that also means that if their logistics capacity is overstretched by construction and colony maintenance, their effective combat strength is lower because they have to substitute warships to make up for their missing logistics capacity.
It's worth remembering that, IIRC since finding quotes in this quest is surprisingly hard sometimes, for the Cardassians numbers of cargo ships/freighters is slightly misleading. Their warships also tend to pull double duty as transports.
So what does this mean for our GBZ policy? Should we allow members to expand in the Gabriel Expanse more aggressively, since the Cardassians are already over their logistical capacity, and are probably going to be relatively quiescent? Or should we push for aggressive convoy raiding to try to stall them even further? Both?
Does this affect a potential decision to Green/Yellow Light civilian colonies?
This seems like a pretty important piece of intelligence, because it's a key factor restraining the Cardassian expansion in the GBZ.
One presumes first, that T'Lorel already has this information, because I did it on the figurative back of a napkin. So we aren't talking military strategic policy or tactical policy, we're talking administrative policy, because that's what we are allowed to decide.
It means that the Cardassians have to make a choice between on one hand, contesting our expansion, and on the other, making resources and/or continuing their own expansion.
Administratively, it means that the aggressive scouting -> expansion the Apiata have been pursuing is viable because the Cardassians would have to give up a lot to contest it (and noting that the Apiata logistics ability is ridiculous), so long as we don't stray too close to Cardassian bases. This is because forward bases that extend the Cardassian reach are difficult for them to build right now. It also means that having the entire back half of the expanse open thanks to the defeat of the Sydraxians isn't something they can even begin to contest. An economic strategy of eating that all up in the next five years could be the death-knell to Cardassian economic ambitions.
On the other hand, it would be easy to surprise us with a delivery of additional cargo ships freighters that unlock additional strategic flexibility for them. I suspect "logistics situation resolved, Jalduns are disruptors hot again" is something we will see in the future.
Adding a civilian colony to the mix could change our defensive priorities such that we no longer have the flexibility to pin the Cardassians like we are currently doing. Realistically, however, such a colony wouldn't be located anywhere under present or future threat. Adding green light for civilian colonies to the mix would be very bad, I would want them approved on a case to case basis only.
e: Oh, and it means we are absolutely crushing them in the GBZ economic race, because our construction projects are continuing unabated since we just magic up more logistics ships from our members whenever we're short. Perhaps they thought a pocket war where they could fight us to stop our expansion would be more their speed, but bringing pressed logistics into the equation really slants it towards us.
e: Another huge takeaway is how much more logistically efficient SR colonies are compared to BR colonies.
Yet another race that have looked at our cruiser line up, seen the Rennie and gone, Nice!
(At least I assume they are after the Rennie and not the Constellation-A)
Obtaining prisoners proved impossible, though not through any lack of trying. The Honiani we encountered aboard were fanatical. The report from Ranger Team 37 tells us that they're members of a splinter faction hidden within the current Honiani government, among trusted Ministers, such as the Minister for Resources, that is attempting to bring back the older, less personal, more muscular interpretations of Lakhept.
What's ironic is that if they'd waited, they'd get all the War they could have wanted. Tensions with the Cardassians have been raising since the day we met and are going to boil over within the next couple decades even if we kept to the canon timeline.
Yan-Ros Ranger teams do things that we usually reserve for Explorer Corps ships. Can we do something silimar for us? Or only after Honiani and Yan-Ros get to be full members and we allow existing rangers to operate far and wide?
Commodore ka'Sharren has apparently chosen to announce her presence to the Cardassian fleet. They had commenced some more aggressive patrol patterns, when one of their Jalduns encountered the Commodore on the USS Kumari. It appears that this news has led to a far more conservative patrol pattern for the time being.
The old familiar Kumari, an opponent of years now, to be treated with caution-and then a bolt of lightning from a clear sky. ka'Sharren was here. There was no reprimand when the Jaldun captain didn't even try to shadow the Federation dreadnought. The commanding admiral considered it lucky he got the ship back at all. The fact the Kumari had altered course and come straight at them the moment they were detected should probably have been enough to tip them off in the first place. Not even Ainsworth was that aggressive.
Any other Starfleet commodore or admiral would be a danger, at most. But not ka'Sharren. ka'Sharren was a thing they knew in intimate detail, but did not understand; her capablities remained a closed book despite their knowledge, being only "more than we have seen, but how much we do not know". Her legend had only grown with her time away from the Cardassian front, with the Obsidian Order have greedily sucked up every detail about the Battle of Ixaria Approach and the death of the Arcadian Emperor. Aggressive patrol schedules were restricted. Civilian craft were called to port. Plans to expand were abandoned. The defensive perimeter contracted.
Look, the Basilica of Lakhept and Enterprise both inspire a similar amount of dread when they're bearing down on you. When either one is bearing down on you, you know you fucked up!
Something that I want to bring up while I was chewing the numbers:
We operate a Starfleet Logistics arm. Other than resources, what exactly stops us from building Starfleet cargo ships and freighters with military-spec warp drives? Surely there's a demand for transport that cruises at warp seven rather than warp five, and while I understand the security issues with releasing such equipment to civilians, we wouldn't be doing that. More than doubling the speed of our internal logistics arm would correspond to a significant increase in capacity, in addition to making interception more difficult and giving us more flexibility in a crisis.
The Seyek Space Service Seyek Military Identifier
The Seyek Space Service is a long-existing organization, stretching back to the earliest attempts at exploration beyond the homeworld. The organization quickly militarized after encountering several hostile powers, including what are now speculated to be far-ranging Caitian or Hishmeri vessels and an attempt by Gorn to conquer the planet. The apex of the Space Service's military might came almost a century ago during the last Fiiral-Seyek war, where they decisively crushed the Fiiral fleet at the Battle of Spirit's Gate before laying siege to their homeworld. The fleet has contracted in overall numbers and firepower since then, as the Seyek economy crashed post-war and subsequent governments focused on civil development projects and Fiiral integration.
The Space Service has since become increasingly focused on exploratory duties rather than existing as a purely military force, similar to the Federation, but still continues research into cutting-edge technology and heavily arms their ships for war. The reasons for this are long-term awareness of the Cardassian threat and pressure from the Indorians, the latter threat effectively removed by Federation diplomacy. Their focus is on Lone Ranger-style tactics involving well-built explorers, built to tackle any problem but with a more militaristic bent than Starfleet designs.
The Space Service has worked hard to recruit Fiiral members, highly prized for their manual dexterity and natural wiring for three-dimensional thinking. However, recent tensions have seen many Fiiral stripped of their rank under intense suspicion. This has only fueled resentment amongst the Fiiral, who have begun to talk openly of forming their own fleet. In the interim, Starfleet has benefitted from a large flow of Fiiral personnel into their ranks - after requisite background checks.
Seyek military vessels are identified by the above logo, and personnel wear armbands with stripes in the above pattern. This is to distinguish them from civilian authorities, such as police and government vehicles, who use a different pattern altogether. Changes in color to the center snake device can indicate seniority, or be replaced entirely to indicate a specialization. Fiiral Personnel wear the identifier as a pattern on their collar, device centerline.
Active Ship Classes
(courtesy of @Leila Hann of course)
Sunrise Class Explorer
C9 S6 H4 L6 P4 D5
2,488,000t mass, 480m length
Period of Service - 2300-Now
9 Officer, 5 Enlisted, 6 Technician
Possessing nearly unmatched firepower for its size, the Sunrise class is the pride of the Seyek fleet. It represents the culmination of Seyek capital ship research and development, a perfect distillation of their heavy fleet doctrine. Unlike Starfleet designs, however, the Sunrise lacks the advanced diplomatic facilities of the Federation, preferring to focus on the installation of powerful sensors and well-equipped labs instead.
The powerful photonic lances that serve as the backbone of its firepower were originally derived from Fiiral designs, and have been refined on the Audacious class to their absolute apex on the Sunrise.
Audacious Class Heavy Cruiser
C7 S4 H3 L5 P4 D4
1,495,000t mass, 291m length
Period of Service - 2280-Now
7 Officer, 4 Enlisted, 4 Technician
The stepping-stone to the Sunrise, the Audacious is part replacement, part radical refit of the older Starburst class. The initial ship, the Audacious itself, was slated to be the Supernova until the design project was completed and it was commissioned as the new class, and maintains subtle visual distinctions from its sister ships. The next of the class, the Serene, is considered the true first ship of the Audacious class. The vessels were designed around the powerful photonic lances, and they give the Audacious class a punch above its weight.
Constrictor Class Destroyer
C6 S3 H3 L4 P3 D4
1,250,000t, 193m length
Period of Service - 2290-Now
3 Officer, 4 Enlisted, 3 Technician
The constrictor is based on older Fiiral designs, when their capital ships were wrapped around a lone photonic lance. Advancements in miniaturization has allowed them to fit a pair of the weapons onto the Constrictor, giving it excellent firepower for its size. She was designed to complement the Audacious class as a cheaper but high-powered combatant.
Peacemaker Class Corvette
C3 S3 H2 L2 P2 D2
729,000t, 158m Length
Period of Service - 2307-Now
1 Officer, 2 Enlisted, 3 Technician
The Peacemaker is an upgrade to the older Soxistin class, expanding her sickbay and recreational facilities for better crew endurance and adding several thousand tons of armor to the hull for improved survivability.
As a basic patrol design, Peacemakers are not armed with photonic lances, and use more conventional plasma cannons as their primary armament. While slow at warp, they very maneuverable at sublight, and primarily serve as in-system interdictors and first responders, assisted by a robust sensor package for the ship's size.
Soxistin Class Corvette
C3 S3 H1 L2 P1 D2
562,000t, 155m length
Period of Service - 2280-Now
1 Officer, 1 Enlisted, 3 Technician
The Soxistin Class Corvette is named for a large rodent on Rethelia. Given the Seyek natural dislike of small, scurrying mammals is similar to the stereotypical human revulsion towards spiders, its name could best be translated in intent as the Tarantula class. It is armed with long-range plasma torpedoes, which were removed on the subsequent Peacemaker class due to improvements in plasma cannon design, in turn derived from improvements to photonic lances.
Seeker Class Science Ship
C1 S5 H1 L2 P2 D2
635,000t, 155m Length
Period of Service - 2290-now
1 Officer, 1 Enlisted, 5 Technician
When a Sunrise or Audacious are unavailable to study an anomaly, or the other designs are insufficient, the Seyek send in a Seeker. A primarily non-combat design, the Seeker is intended to follow in the tracks of exploratory vessels and either study identified points of interest more in-depth, or survey for more interesting finds. Based on the Soxistin hull, the Seeker replaces her obvious torpedos for high-gain sensors; magazines with extensive laboratory facilities. It also improves on the crew facilities, a necessity for long survey missions.
Personnel
Unlike other species, the Seyek do not have a traditional Enlisted/Officer divide. Their organization is also extremely flat, with specializations being seen as much more important than the constellation of Enlisted and Officer ranks that the Federation has. The five ranks of the Seyek are Spacer, Sergeant, Supervisor, Overseer, and Marshal. These are further modified by technical and position ratings. One can be a Sensor Spacer, roughly equivalent to a Sensor Operator petty officer in Starfleet. While in theory there are only five ranks, the addition of a 'senior' prefix effectively doubles the ranks, and is often given to section heads at the lower levels. As something of a parallel, however, leadership training at Seyek space academies can lead to being commissioned at a higher rank, typically Sargeant.
The basic rank is Spacer. A standard spacer can start with a specialization if they went to a specific technical school or join the Space Service with specialized knowledge. Those that don't are posted to a variety of departments as their skills are nurtured and developed, working menial tasks and providing whatever manual labour is needed. Some Spacers may stay at this rank their entire time in the service, showing some level of aptitude for their work but unable to demonstrate the leadership abilities to advance. Senior Spacers can be equivilent to petty officers and Ensigns.
Where one would see Lieutenants, and chief petty officers there is the Sergeant rank providing the junior leadership in the fleet. Technical Sergeant is a catch-all term for specialized Sergeants, such as Lab Sergeants, Administrative Sergeants, or Security Sergeants. They are equivalent to a whole class of Chief Petty Officers and junior officers with highly prized knowledge and education, and who also coordinate teams to carry out their work. Confusingly for outside observers, Senior Sergeants are often equivalent to senior enlisted ranks in other navies, but unmodified Sergeants are usually those with promising leadership careers, given generalist duties to prepare them for the complex world of Starship operations. This is not a hard and fast rule, however.
Those with the Supervisor rank, the equivalent of the Commander ranks in Starfleet, are often very effective coordinators who are well-versed in organizational behaviour and also highly knowledgeable in their areas of expertise. There are very few Technical Supervisors, and those who are are often not posted to ships, being in charge of research teams or large technical or defense arrays. At the Supervisor level the Senior prefix is often only required by the ship's XO, the rest usually being department heads. There is an additional prefix - Ship Supervisor - for those Supervisors who command the smaller vessels in the Seyek fleet.
The Overseer class is equivalent to ship Captains, Directors, or junior admiralty. Standard overseers are ship captains or installation commanders. A research director would be a Technical Overseer. A Overseer who commanded multiple vessels would be a Fleet Overseer. The Senior prefix is only used on an ad-hoc basis for formations of vessels commanded by Overseers, equivalent to the obsolete Federation Fleet Captain position.
Finally, the Marshal rank covers the senior-most leadership of the Seyek. A Senior Marshal is equivalent to a Vice-Admiral, and the High Marshal is the Commander of the Space Service. There is a Strategic Marshal rank that is only used in time of emergency, but has been floated as a special rank if the upper ranks of the Space Service ever expanded.
Space Schools
Unlike Starfleet, the Seyek will often commission individuals at the Technical Sergeant rank if they passed leadership courses while obtaining a STEM at civilian institutes of higher learning, and will occasionally commission flat Sergeants from other bachelor-equivalent programs if they acquired specialized training or show leadership in other areas of their life. For those Seyek or Fiiral hoping to have the best chance at being commissioned at a higher rank and also seeing their careers blossom, an education at the Hassonus Space School is seen as a major asset. Other reputable academies include the Royal Spire Military College on Fiiral and the Zencien Space School. Highly-reputable civilian institutions that the Space Service recruits from include the Masscenchenxinet Institute of Science, the Tiqesset Campus, and Prixseton School.
Sky Shrikes
The Seyek orbit-to-ground service, equivalent to the Orion Aerocommandos, is the Special Assault Service, or colloquially, the Sky Shrikes. Most Seyek ships have a small Shrike detachment onboard for assistance in specialized tactical situations, similar to United Earth MACOs. Larger Shrike formations are held in reserve for wartime operations, designed to be transported to the front by the Seyek Cruisers and Explorers. Their specialized insertion shuttles are often flown by hand-picked Fiiral pilots. The most storied shuttle unit is the infamous 203rd Special Aviation Wing, known as the Night Kings. Fiiral also serve, in smaller numbers, in the Shrike infantry units. While it is a widespread idea that the Seyek are fearsome close-in fighters and the Fiiral are easily-crushed weaklings, this is something of an incorrect meme that speaks more to the overwhelming physical strength of Seyek than the weakness of Fiiral. A Fiiral Shrike can, and will, easily kick you to death - or into the coils of a Seyek that will then proceed to crush you to death.
Appendix A - Typical Rank Prefixes
Administrative - Roughly equivalent to the Yeoman and Ops positions in Starfleet, depending on rank. Administrative Spacers fill yeoman and personal assistant roles, while Sergeant and above handles more large-scale organization.
Biological/Chemical/Physical - Standard prefix for personnel with specialized skills in Biology, Chemistry and Physics, respectively.
Engineering - Same connotations as in Starfleet.
Intelligence - Same general duties as Intelligence officers or enlisted in Starfleet.
Medical - Same duties as Starfleet medical officers. Often confusingly for outsiders, the best doctors in the fleet tend to have spent long careers at the Spacer and Sergeant rank, while Supervisors and Overseers are more competent in handling medical administrative duties. Senior Medical Spacers are often the closest Doctor analogue, with normal medical spacers being more akin to nurses.
Security - Roughly equivalent to security personnel in Starfleet. A Security Spacer is a typical combatant, with Security Sergeants and Senior Security Sergeants providing the junior leadership.
Sensor - In charge of sensor operation and maintenance. At higher rankings it implies sub-department heads who oversee all sensor usage on a ship.
Tactical - Typically reserved for Supervisor and higher ranks, Tactical has the same connotations as in Starfleet. They are responsible for deploying ship weapons systems in engagements, developing plans, and evaluating regional threats to the ship. They work closely with Intelligence section to effectively prepare the ship for possible dangers.
Weapons - in charge of shipborne weapons operations, roughly equivalent to certain aspects of the Tactical role, but usually limited to Technical Sergeants and occasionally Supervisors who directly oversee the physical systems.
A/N: if you've got suggestions let me hear them
Appendix B - Worked Example of a Seyek Command Structure - Serene
Overseer: Xintisschel "Xinti" Zole
Senior Supervisor: Hessic Grenassad
Tactical Supervisor: Constricca Asseop
Senior Weapons Sargent
Senior Tactical Sargent
Engineering Sargent
Intelligence Sargent
Science Supervisor: Eissten Abrexis
Sensors Sargent
Labs Sargent
Biology, Chemical, and Physical Sargents
Engineering Supervisor: Yexess Lessat
Senior Damage Control Sargent
Senior Warp Core Sargent
Senior Engineering Sargent
Navigation Supervisor: Tiiridium
Senior Astogation Sargent
Senior Helm Spacer
Security Supervisor
Senior Security Sargent
Security Sargent, Shrikes.
Medical Supervisor
Counselling Sargent
Senior Medical Sargent
Senior Medical Spacer [ie: probably the best doctor onboard]
A/N: source for that nice little snek is Icons & Insignia by Kydoimos. Service dates are a complete stab in the dark.
We operate a Starfleet Logistics arm. Other than resources, what exactly stops us from building Starfleet cargo ships and freighters with military-spec warp drives? Surely there's a demand for transport that cruises at warp seven rather than warp five, and while I understand the security issues with releasing such equipment to civilians, we wouldn't be doing that. More than doubling the speed of our internal logistics arm would correspond to a significant increase in capacity, in addition to making interception more difficult and giving us more flexibility in a crisis.
Is it possible that there's design barriers to building cargo ships that fast? Like, if you build a cargo ship that's twice as fast, but with half the cargo capacity because you need to upsize all the other systems, you haven't actually increased the cargo per time value, and the new ship is probably more expensive, too. Although it would be less vulnerable to commerce raiders...
I'd actually be willing to eat a cost increase per freighter if we could just get more speed without more logistics capacity, when I think about it. Transporting time-sensitive goods and carrying cargo through a warzone is a role that we could maybe justify a new design for?
Is it possible that there's design barriers to building cargo ships that fast? Like, if you build a cargo ship that's twice as fast, but with half the cargo capacity because you need to upsize all the other systems, you haven't actually increased the cargo per time value, and the new ship is probably more expensive, too. Although it would be less vulnerable to commerce raiders...
I'd actually be willing to eat a cost increase per freighter if we could just get more speed without more logistics capacity, when I think about it. Transporting time-sensitive goods and carrying cargo through a warzone is a role that we could maybe justify a new design for?
Is it possible that there's design barriers to building cargo ships that fast? Like, if you build a cargo ship that's twice as fast, but with half the cargo capacity because you need to upsize all the other systems, you haven't actually increased the cargo per time value, and the new ship is probably more expensive, too. Although it would be less vulnerable to commerce raiders...
I'd actually be willing to eat a cost increase per freighter if we could just get more speed without more logistics capacity, when I think about it. Transporting time-sensitive goods and carrying cargo through a warzone is a role that we could maybe justify a new design for?
I'm certain there's some design barriers, but the main justification I've seen given is that warp cores are dangerous enough that they need to be black boxed, so civilians get the warp five standbys and we put the crazy sprint drives in fast-reacting military ships and auxiliaries.
But there shouldn't be enough of a design barrier, because the engineering ships we have do military cruise, and so do a large number of purpose-built auxiliary ships we have. Just not cargo or freighter because we use civilian designs.
e: And our other auxiliaries which have military drives don't draw from our regular crew pool either.
Assumption - the faster warp drive consultant nes at a cost of more build time and/or cost, and more critically for the role, much high maintenance requirements.
For the cargo role you need engines that will run with minimum support for a very long time.
If we do have a war against the cardassians (which actually doesn't seem as sure a bet as it once did) our goal should be to make it so catastrophic for them that we force a regime change. Otherwise, we end up creating the same status quo as in canon, which only led to another, even worse, war a few decades down the line.
Other's have already chimed in, but unless we see some serious escalation of atrocities or threats on the scale of the Licori star destabilizer, I'm expecting the most the Federation and its tailward constituents can stomach would be a war characteristic of most of the conflicts in Europe's late Middle and Renaissance ages. Namely, warring until you can force (or be forced) a territorial or similar concession.
Plus, the Federation - or at least the vast majority of it - is not geared for an offensive war reaching all the way to Cardassia. It would a huge logistical challenge and could require substantial long-term organization of the member fleets.
Remember we did call this out back in 2312, and although the context has changed somewhat, the overall substance of it remains true:
[X][WAR] War is a terrible thing, Madame President. Even in the best case we'll take massive losses, and I truly hope that there's a path to a diplomatic solution. That's not high-minded idealism; it's my people who will be the first to die. That said, you asked me a question. If you told me to go right now we could be sure of victory only with the support of the Member Fleets to both guard the home sectors and in some cases support us on the attack.
-[X] We would definitely win a defensive war with Cardassians and their allies, right now. Whether the Cardassians and Sydraxians attack from coreward, spinward, or rimward, we have strong member fleets and bases on those borders that can augment Starfleet forces for rapid response, and sufficient time to muster the other member fleets for reinforcements. The war would be costly, but it would be far costlier for the Cardassians.
-[X] I'm less confident for the Federation's prospects for striking at Cardassia. Starfleet alone is unlikely to succeed, and to be blunt, the Federation is not geared politically or logistically for a large scale war that requires the offensive support of the member fleets.
-[X] (Holds up 3 fingers.) Three years. If you can hold off a full scale war for 3 years, the fleet will be far stronger. We'll have all our Mirandas refitted, we'll have 14 new ships that we don't have today... a dozen of them cruisers or Excelsiors. Admiral Kahurangi once told me that if we can build two Excelsiors for every two Jalduns the Cardassians build then this conflict is a mountain out of a molehill. We can- but we need to actually get them built.
Or a massive wave of refits. We've been speculating whether they could actually afford to nearly double their shipbuilding throughput back when we heard about their new shipyard constructions.
The Cardassians are over capacity in the GBZ before even accounting for construction projects. Even with only three productive colonies instead of four, they'd still close to capacity and wouldn't have room for construction.
In addition to that, there's likely a route penalty in their feeder loop, which the GBZ is bound to be included in. Starfleet's route penalty is 1.25, and the same probably applies to the Cardassians.
