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Puella Magi Adfligo Systema

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Wander said:
I'm confused here- what do you expect Oriko to do with a note if Sabrina is readng it? She is utterly incapable of effecting Sabrina's thoughts, so even though Firn is probably making her retroactively predict our actions, Oriko still can't guide our actions in directions that are favorable to her.
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Idle comment: I've been trying to run Oriko with as little fiat as possible. The only part of Oriko's actions I've had to fiat was her showing up on the bus to Shirome, because I honestly expected someone to cotton on to the fact that maybe going to the precog's school was a bad idea.
 
Torgamous said:
So, what causal chain are you envisioning for this note? Because it's already there in front of us. Clearly Oriko expected it to do something. Is it going to be retconned away if we vote not to read it?

Oriko's precognition has limits, and we don't know what those are. If it turns out that she can only predict our actions to a tree of probable paths instead of a single timeline, for example, your plan would fuck Sayaka.

And, as you need to be reminded, we have as much time as we need. Wasting time in timestop does not a fucking thing.
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... when I have I missed that we have infinite time in timestop?

The problem is, this wasn't a particularly good time to use it. But oh well.

And the causal chain I'm envisioning is "Oriko leaves the note -> predicts we don't look at it -> says 'phooey,' and runs off."

And in that case, it would depend on probabilities - some of those paths would lead to her getting what she wants, some of them would lead to her wasting time and effort, and whether or not she'd go through on the blackmail would depend on her judgement (aka Fir's) of what we would be likely to do.
 
linkhyrule5 said:
And the causal chain I'm envisioning is "Oriko leaves the note -> predicts we don't look at it -> says 'phooey,' and runs off."

And in that case, it would depend on probabilities - some of those paths would lead to her getting what she wants, some of them would lead to her wasting time and effort, and whether or not she'd go through on the blackmail would depend on her judgement (aka Fir's) of what we would be likely to do.
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That doesn't really work. If leaving the note wasn't going to help she wouldn't have left it in the first place because she'd have predicted it wouldn't do anything.
 
inverted_helix said:
That doesn't really work. If leaving the note wasn't going to help she wouldn't have left it in the first place because she'd have predicted it wouldn't do anything.
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Indeed. This is strange.

If we precommit to destroy it immediately and not look at it, then we conclude that Oriko's precog is simply not that accurate (or that the ashes of the note are a chemical weapon or something, I suppose.)
 
With the Homura Timestop + Sabrina Cleansing = Infinite Hax combo, I'm guessing it will turn out that either
A) Magical girls need to eat/sleep to keep their bodies alive even if they are liches, or
B) Homura's timestop will indeed count as "active magic" and cancel as soon as she's within Kirika's range, as speculated earlier, or
C) Having piles and piles of grief marbles lying around is a terrible idea,
simply because it's too OP otherwise. Oriko loses instantly as soon as Homura and Sabrina have reason to off her. Well, instantly from her perspective anyway.
 
Torgamous said:
Setting up a distraction for someone with infinite time is a flawed idea from the start.
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... Well, first of all, we don't actually have infinite time because we will go insane from the monotony eventually.

Second, it's not a distraction, it's a test. It implies, by the way, that she finds it helpful to follow through on an action when predicting how it turns out.
 
Silver said:
With the Homura Timestop + Sabrina Cleansing = Infinite Hax combo, I'm guessing it will turn out that either
A) Magical girls need to eat/sleep to keep their bodies alive even if they are liches, or
B) Homura's timestop will indeed count as "active magic" and cancel as soon as she's within Kirika's range, as speculated earlier, or
C) Having piles and piles of grief marbles lying around is a terrible idea,
simply because it's too OP otherwise. Oriko loses instantly as soon as Homura and Sabrina have reason to off her. Well, instantly from her perspective anyway.
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One other idea that occurs to me:
D) Firnagzen misled originally about Oriko being the primary antagonist of the quest and killing her leads to whatever she was working to prevent coming to pass and it being far worse.
 
linkhyrule5 said:
... Well, first of all, we don't actually have infinite time because we will go insane from the monotony eventually.
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That assumes Oriko has infinite hostages. Which do you think will happen first, we'll get bored of saving people from death traps or Oriko will run out of people in death traps, bearing in mind that Oriko has only been a magical girl for a couple days?
linkhyrule5 said:
Second, it's not a distraction, it's a test. It implies, by the way, that she finds it helpful to follow through on an action when predicting how it turns out.
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And now I'm back to having no idea what you expect to happen if we read the note.
 
You know the world doesn't revolve around Sabrina, right?

The assumption that "Everyone around me clearly has no value to Oriko except that they happen to know me" is arrogant and baseless. The people in Sabrina's life aren't empty possessions that only have relevance in their connection to her. They happen to be people, and Oriko might want them on her board for any number of other reasons. Why does Sabrina have to be the lynchpin in Oriko's mystery plan? Why can't it be someone else? For all we know the master plan involves something in Kasamino and we're just a potential interloper that's being kept occupied. Maybe Sabrina's just not that important, what she's done isn't exactly a massive time investment. Assigning someone this much imaginary importance to someone in relation to someone we know almost nothing about is going to lead to getting blindsided and looking like an asshole.
 
Torgamous said:
That assumes Oriko has infinite hostages. Which do you think will happen first, we'll get bored of saving people from death traps or Oriko will run out of people in death traps, bearing in mind that Oriko has only been a magical girl for a couple days?

And now I'm back to having no idea what you expect to happen if we read the note.
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No, I'm assuming that Oriko can hide well enough with her precog that we will get bored and sloppy before we findin d her.

And if we read the note, we'll find out that, oh, Oriko has set Madoka up the bomb. And I don't trust SV to just ignore that note and not change our actions because of - meaning that it's worthwhile for Oriko to have retroactively actually set Madoka up the bomb, and since it will be much more difficult to search the whole city for Madoka, we have no chance to survive even though we can make infinite time.

On a side note: @Firnagzen - roughly, how much potential does Madoka have right now? You noted earlier that we can roughly judge potential by shades of Grief, so...
 
linkhyrule5 said:
And if we read the note, we'll find out that, oh, Oriko has set Madoka up the bomb. And I don't trust SV to just ignore that note and not change our actions because of - meaning that it's worthwhile for Oriko to have retroactively actually set Madoka up the bomb, and since it will be much more difficult to search the whole city for Madoka, we have no chance to survive even though we can make infinite time.
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And some of us would argue that ignoring the note would DEFINITELY doom Madoka, as oppose to only possibly dooming her. I think what you're arguing is that we can't barter with terrorists, but a) this assumes that Oriko's precog is as good as you think it is, and b) we have better things to do than "waste" our time ensuring the safety of our friends/innocent bystandersnon-MGs.

linkhyrule5 said:
On a side note: @Firnagzen - roughly, how much potential does Madoka have right now? You noted earlier that we can roughly judge potential by shades of Grief, so...
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I would be interested in this question too.

Edit: Ah, already answered! I am still interested. :p
 
Well we should read the note because more info can only help us. We can either figure out she's trying to mess with us, or if this is part of some set up against a future super boss or something.

Don't forget, we're OP for a reason. Oriko's foresight has yet to appear to need our full level of power. Something's lurking in the shadows~ Something Strange~

Let's try and use Oriko to find it? Best Defense is an unstoppable assault!
 
Duskwitch said:
And some of us would argue that ignoring the note would DEFINITELY doom Madoka, as oppose to only possibly dooming her. I think what you're arguing is that we can't barter with terrorists, but a) this assumes that Oriko's precog is as good as you think it is, and b) we have better things to do than "waste" our time ensuring the safety of our friends/innocent bystandersnon-MGs.
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Not arguing b) at all. Of course we want to protect them. But sometimes
Duskwitch said:
SO MUCH THIS.
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you're safer not knowing.

*sigh*

I'm giving up for now. At some point I need to go run a Quest from the PoV of a precog/timetraveler, though, because geez there are some basic Time Travel 101 things people are getting wrong.
 
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