I'll bring up something pointed out to me which was that it's probably not safe to integrate the Stallions while the Nomads are still brawling in the attic.
It's not
inherently suicidal but we would have to be
confident that we could stand those nomads off before we can integrate. It's possible but other plans are probably more viable.
I don't quite agree with your starting premise about us being able to finish this even on offensive in a single turn. They are a peer and that means a lot in any age. We would finish it quicker however, and the rest of your points in the first two paragraphs I don't disagree with.
Anyway! All that aside I
highly suggest you go read these three things Yeargst showed us.
http://epublications.bond.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007&context=cewces_papers
A Mandala for the Southeast Asian International System
Mandala of Power - ScienceDirect
They support your conclusion quite nicely. Pay extra attention to the first. You should see some
striking similarities to the Ymaryn.
It is a good point about the Stallions and, to be fair, its something I'd like to support but the reality of the situation will probably change priorities.
While I freely admit it is unlikely we would be able to conclude this war within a single turn, Offensive gives the best chance of a decisive knockout blow and we are currently built for that. We have iron and are fighting on terrain we are familiar with. I feel on balance we have more advantages than disadvantages for attacking. To be honest, I look at the map and feel distinctly uneasy about just sitting and turtling while the Khemetri attack us. We're surrounded by too many hostile powers and it just feels indecisive.
Very interesting links. I'm about halfway through them and I see what you mean.
Except Defensive isn't a do nothing at all plan. We are not just going to sit twiddling our thumbs expecting our provinces to solve the problem for us. We would be sending War Mission as well as anything else the peripheries might need.
Oh, I am aware of that. We'd be sending War Missions no matter which policy is on. Offence just appeals to me far more at this moment, as an opportunity to push the Khemetri away from our territory and make them react to us. As I said above, defensive feels indecisive and that doesn't appeal at a time when we are surrounded by hostile neighbours looking for weakness. I'd rather take the chance for a quick end to the war, no matter how slim, than a grinding defence of our lands.
Fighting a war, whether we win or lose, will make us actually weakened.
Our neighbors are very beatable. We have a decent idea of where they are, how they fight, and how strong they are. We've beaten them before. They watched us torch Xohyr. They have no stake in a fight besides the opportunity to take out a threat, so as soon as it doesn't seem feasible to exterminate us, they'll come to terms.
The Khemetri, though - we don't know their size, except that at some point they were much bigger than us, or their military capabilities, except that they're fabulously wealthy in an age of mercenaries, or their fighting style, except guesses from RL history that they'll use chariots. They have their reputation on the line here, so they won't back down until they either win or take crippling losses. And with DS, quite frankly, we're much more vulnerable to crippling losses.
We can beat off all our neighbors, even at once. We even get a chance this turn at preemptively establishing negotiations/bribery with them. But taking on the Khemetri, OTOH, is a huge risk.
And if the war gets costly - especially land loss - even if we ultimately win, we'll be more vulnerable to our neighbors than ever.
You have valid points, and I understand your reasoning for them. Ultimately, I think the risk is worth it to protect our reputation, and not appear weak to the sharks surrounding us, or our subordinates. Thanks for giving your reasons and being willing to discuss them
