Yeah, no. They have control of their waters and do have ties/raids with Tin Tribes. So even if all their privateers do not notice our ships (and they may well do), one of tribes will soon notice fires of camps and change in wildlife patterns and....basically, I give it at most a couple of years until Trelli notice it, and that is *if* our trade post does not initiate its own contacting with locals to, you know, trade
The Western Trade post is not however, in their waters, so they'd notice it...once the Trade Post lays down the settlement and opens up for business. At the least that means a settlement + docks + the Red Banner. Given the risks of the region, it is plausible, but not a given for them to build basic walls before docks.
A probing attack can happen the very same turn it's built, but the Red Banner would be there.
As such a 'real' attack can be expected some time the turn after. The Trelli need to pull back their mercenaries deployed to slave raiding and engaged in the Saffron island wars(which I may note, will piss off the Saffron islanders if their hired mercs just left suddenly without finishing the turn or war).
The challenge from there is basically beefing up our naval power and transferring aid to the Trade post while outlasting the Trelli piggybank. Fortunately, Greenshore is likely to be taking More Boats aggressively at this point to catch up.
@veekie, wouldn't you agree though, that since the north yields great benefits after some time, the sooner its there the better? Especially since an inexhaustible supply of varied timber is vital for many things, including dealing with a possible trelli conflict. And furs, herbs and Amber are a plus, along with the possibility of mineral deposits and ivory if we hit the white sea cost later on.
Yes? But not Now, because as per word of AN, we need:
-At least 1 Mercenary Company stationed there, possibly more.
-Enough Econ invested into the project that they cannot die from the 3 turns of shitty weather roll needed to learn how to survive winters. We know climate can inflict 1-3 Econ damage per turn, and that Trade Posts start with 2+1(initial settlement) Econ.
--Mathematically we need this sequence to ENSURE it survives in the worst case of climate:
---1) Found Trading Post +2 Econ + Main Support Subordinate +2 Econ - 3 Weather damage = 1 Econ. Trade Post takes Main New Settlement and Main Expand Economy(which may fail!), taking them to 6 Econ
---2) Main Support Subordiinate +2 Econ - 3 Weather damage = 5 Econ. Trade post probably wants to put up walls and spend some Econ here, so lets call it an expense of 2, taking them to 3 Econ
---3) Main Support Subordinate +2 Econ - 3 Weather damage = 2 Econ. Trade post has survived the weather crisis and figured out what to do about it. Probably will keep living from here.