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I notice that the discussion has been bouncing endlessly around the whole, "evidence of absence," thing. While technically true, it does — fittingly — make the discussion impossible to usefully or conclusively resolve. Let's try another tack. Q, perhaps you could instead explain for the thread why exactly Yammar's displayed use of game theory is flawed/misconceived/etc. It occurs that we seem to have skipped that step, and I feel like it would be a more stable foundation for the discussion.
Fair enough. If I think Yammar's plan is kinda dumb, it does behoove me to explain why.

So. As near as we can tell, Yammar's policy for hostages is
He was willing to call the bluff. Yammar is very much of the, "don't let hostage-taking work," mindset.

...Yammar is not willing to negotiate. Kakara locked him for a bit in the manner you saw, but threats against Dandeer's safety just result in Yammar charging, because he's of the opinion that the only way to not let hostages be effective is to refuse to negotiate with them as leverage.
Which, ok, fair enough! Precommiting to not let hostages work on you is one of the archetypal forms of precommitment. The problem is that Yammar doesn't know what he's doing, because the way he set things up gives him almost all of the downsides to precommiting without giving him many of the benefits; rather than a potent tool that exchanges flexibility for feats that would be ultimately impossible, he instead created a strategy which hurts his own interests.

To explain, here is what we know about yammar's stance in detail (aside from the parts seen in story):
Kakara tries to use Dandeer as cover while she heals people? I know for a fact that Yammar's response to that is a wide-area blast, forcing Kakara to break concentration to avoid her shield being vaporized. Have Kakara IT away? Well, the issue is that Yammar's response to Kakara trying that is, again, a wide-angle blast.
and
As I said, this is about Yammar being afraid of what Dandeer might pull if she is challenged while she holds Yammar's family's minds in her grip. He is afraid of what contingencies she may have prepared, and is not confident in his ability to prevent them.

This is less a matter of governmental legitimacy, from Yammar's perspective, and more a matter of how he can get his son and grandson out of suicide vests while his daughter-in-law is holding something that may be a detonator, a dead man switch, or both.
Yammar's anti-hostage trick is simultaneously so strong that he's willing to kill the person he's rescuing, rather than let them be used against his rescue (which is in itself a clear sign that his precommitment is broken), but also not strong enough to actually stop people from using hostages against him. Now, it's arguable that he was mind controlled into giving this reasoning, and that actually the sole reason he doesn't act is mind control rather than hostages; this solves that problem, right?

No, voice inside my head who I'm expositing to, it doesn't. The main lever of precommitting is "being seen to precommit." It's why (in theory) organizations like the US government announce that they "won't negotiate with terrorists" or people tie blindfolds or take out their steering wheel if they're serious about winning games of chicken. The more credible you can make your commitment, the less you get called on it. The issue is, Yammar didn't do any of that. Not only has he not even made sure Kakara was aware of said policy, she's actively seen examples of him violating it, which reflects in her actions. The precommitment holds no force to prevent his opponent from using hostages, and leaves him with the unenviable position of "follow the precommitment to its stupid end and kill the person that is literally the sole reason he's having the fight and is his sole goal" and "abandon the precommitment, leaving you weaker than if you hadn't even tried in the first place."
You can't even make the argument that "it worked out, so maybe he just knew kakara" because those were, in fact, options we could have picked. Bear in mind that that update was the one where poptart cut off voting and just picked the choice with best chance of sucess; rather than "voters as kakara wouldn't choose to use dandeer as a shield to heal allies" it's "voters as kakara didn't get the choice." In short, the decision that got yammar the result he was aiming for came from an entirely different source than the one that all of Kakara's previous actions allow him to model, so there's just no way for him to have done so. It's definitely likely that we would have picked this anyway, and from kakara's PoV the results aren't that different, but the same isn't true of Ymmar's PoV, and it's nowhere near enough of a sure thing for that kind of a gamble to work from yammar.

This isn't really complex stuff, from a game theoretic PoV, and I hardly credit the possibility that you can have Mathematics of even modern levels without game theory this basic; if anything, I would consider saiyan!garenhuld's game theory to likely be better than ours. This leaves the only real possibilities that Yammar is too stupid to figure these out, or so arrogant and foolish he didn't even bother to learn the basics of what he was doing before blindly leaping to cripple himself by precommitment. Neither one of these speaks well of the intellect he's applying to the problem at hand.


Okay now THAT is a hilarious way to exploit the well-documented tendency of Dandeer's mind control victims to suck at Deceit checks.

I... may actually be able to come up with something more glorious than this, but I can't possibly come up with something funnier. :p
I still like my take :p .
 
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This isn't really complex stuff, from a game theoretic PoV, and I hardly credit the possibility that you can have Mathematics of even modern levels without game theory this basic; if anything, I would consider saiyan!garenhuld's game theory to likely be better than ours. This leaves the only real possibilities that Yammar is too stupid to figure these out, or so arrogant and foolish he didn't even bother to learn the basics of what he was doing before blindly leaping to cripple himself by precommitment. Neither one of these speaks well of the intellect he's applying to the problem at hand.
Again, magically enforced lobotomy; I find it VERY hard to believe Yammar was making optimal decisions while under the influence of multiple mind control spells.

But that being said, I think you're oversimplifying a good deal, and thus missing some nuance between the "Yammar is optimally rational" and "Yammar is just plain dumb" options.

I think the most likely explanation is that Yammar has deep-seated personal trauma related to hostages* such that ever since he has dogmatically adhered to a pre-commitment to never, ever, EVER let a hostage-taker win. Like, he would rather lose everything than let anyone ever score a tactical victory against him by taking hostages. Because that's already happened to him, once, and he did lose almost everything, and has lived a hollow life for roughly thirty years since that time, so what more can he possibly lose that would be significant compared to what's already happened?

Which isn't so much 'stupid' as, well, the product of a horrific personal experience that triggered a descent into madness from which he never really recovered.

----------------------------------------

*(Ever wonder what happened to Yammar's wife, Lord Vegeta's mother? How about Yammar's mother? Siblings? It's plausible that they were just never mentioned, but that's far from the only explanation, and given that the Talts were aggressive enough to ambush his father, the then-Patriarch, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they tried to take members of his family hostage to force him to stand down)
 
No, voice inside my head who I'm expositing to, it doesn't. The main lever of precommitting is "being seen to precommit." It's why (in theory) organizations like the US government announce that they "won't negotiate with terrorists" or people tie blindfolds or take out their steering wheel if they're serious about winning games of chicken. The more credible you can make your commitment, the less you get called on it. The issue is, Yammar didn't do any of that. Not only has he not even made sure Kakara was aware of said policy, she's actively seen examples of him violating it, which reflects in her actions. The precommitment holds no force to prevent his opponent from using hostages, and leaves him with the unenviable position of "follow the precommitment to its stupid end and kill the person that is literally the sole reason he's having the fight and is his sole goal" and "abandon the precommitment, leaving you weaker than if you hadn't even tried in the first place."
Except Yammar did not know that Kakara had seen him violate that commitment at that time. At that point in time, he had no awareness of that, thanks to the mind control wiping away anything to do with Dandeer's bad stuff.

Yammar would have been operating under the assumption that his stance is public knowledge, which he has never backed down on. The fact that Kakara tried anyway is now a problem to that precommitment.

Also, you're assuming that Dandeer's safety at that point was his only/main concern. Besides the fact that he has to maintain that precommitment, there's the fact that he likely was viewing the whole fight as either an attempted coup, or at least three of the other Royals going crazy and needing to be stopped.

Basically, your whole argument comes from the assumption that Dandeer's safety was his highest priority, rather then just being a high priority.
 
Unless someone makes a better argument I'm advocating for

[ ] Planet Zebul. It has absolutely everything you need, if you can just dodge the soldiers. Dazarel has a point; Bassoon's used to doing just that, and the Refugees will be out of their element. And a part of you really wants to find out what the dragon has to teach you...

as I actually agree with the dragon for once and I'm curious about that teaching thing.
 
Yes, I should have voted to scry Zebul when someone made a decent argument. I'm just not in the habit of actually voting. As-is, I'm not strongly for or against any of our present options, but I present another possibility:
[ ] Send Bassoon to Pura, and visit someone else in the meantime. Maybe we can reach the Guru if we try?
Okay now THAT is a hilarious way to exploit the well-documented tendency of Dandeer's mind control victims to suck at Deceit checks.

I... may actually be able to come up with something more glorious than this, but I can't possibly come up with something funnier. :p
I didn't actually write it as humor. It was just a case of 'Poptart thinks we're in checkmate, but may have misses one of the social options'. (Partly because 'Dandeer is possessed by an unknown party' actually is a fairly plausible explanation for her actions.)
Then I realized that since the spell edits out knowledge of why to oppose Dandeer immediately, he might indeed give Dandelor the benefit of the doubt. Which gave me an ending!
Pfhahahaha! That's brilliant. Nicely done. Bonus to deceit checks. Non-canon, obviously.
How plausible is it that it would have worked? Would we have needed to roll significantly higher than he did?
 
Do not trust the dragon. The dragon is trying to escape.
The dragon still has its powers sealed.

Yeah, he's operating on, like 0.05 PL right now. I highly doubt he could get away with much, particularly when he somewhat literally has the fear of god in him, and he knows that the number of beings that would object to him being killed can likely be counted on one hand.

By the by, can you tell us what exactly the terms of the deal was @PoptartProdigy ? I mean, I can't see how it would hurt Dandeer's efforts, and Kakara's probably just as curious what Dandeer thought it was a good idea to offer the genocidal maniac with no reason to do what she said if he were unSealed as we are.
 
I'm not sure why everybody is assuming that she's detecting Kakara. Dazarel has far more people angry with him.

The mentions of "a price on people like that" and "one of them" and "the big guy" seem pretty clearly to be referring to a generic bounty on Saiyans rather than any specific bounty on Dazarel. There might also be a generic bounty on dragons, for some reason, but if so I'd expect Bassoon to mention it at the same point he mentions the generic bounty on Saiyans?

"Y'know that there's a price on people like that. That's not even mentioning what happens to folks to let one slip by without dropping a line to the...big guy...so to speak." He tilts his head. "A lot of folks might call that unkind, you know. Trying to slip one of them by us like that."

Can Kakara masque as a shade? If she isn't distinctively saiyan they would be far less interested.
This is an extremely good idea, though. @PoptartProdigy ?


Do not trust the dragon. The dragon is trying to escape.
The dragon is absolutely untrustworthy, but his current actual ability to escape is negligible, and he has enough self-preservation instinct to know that Gohan will squash him if he betrays Kakara.
 
Do not trust the dragon. The dragon is trying to escape.
I still remember that time you had me convinced the Tastreyan airborne assault on our home city was a specific saiyan-led conspiracy to target the Scions and I voted to freak the hell out and teleport Jaron out of the city limits entirely. :p

How plausible is it that it would have worked? Would we have needed to roll significantly higher than he did?
I mean, we didn't actually try to use Deceit checks to trick Yammar into thinking we were nonhostile, as I recall.

It's not necessarily a question of "would we have needed to roll higher."

Of course, that might have categorically failed just because of the limits of what Deceit can and cannot be used to do. It's not at all clear that you could use even, say, a relative margin of +200 or even +300 on the die roll from a Deceit check to convince someone to believe something completely counterfactual to their own immediately past actions like "you are a ham sandwich" or "that guy you thought you were fighting was actually a different guy."

Not without having something like the magical compulsions Dandeer can deploy, anyway.
 
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I still remember that time you had me convinced the Tastreyan airborne assault on our home city was a specific saiyan-led conspiracy to target the Scions and I voted to freak the hell out and teleport Jaron out of the city limits entirely. :p

I mean, we didn't actually try to use Deceit checks to trick Yammar into thinking we were nonhostile, as I recall.

It's not necessarily a question of "would we have needed to roll higher."

Of course, that might have categorically failed just because of the limits of what Deceit can and cannot be used to do. It's not at all clear that you could use even, say, a relative margin of +200 or even +300 on the die roll from a Deceit check to convince someone to believe something completely counterfactual to their own immediately past actions like "you are a ham sandwich" or "that guy you thought you were fighting was actually a different guy."

Not without having something like the magical compulsions Dandeer can deploy, anyway.
A relative margin of + 200 is by comparison, is (about?) the gap that being ten times as strong as someone gives via the power level system (which by pretty much any standard is insurmountable, even if you are miss pseudo-ultra instinct). I mean, that's probably 'automatic no contest total victory' range, even given the absurd heights that fighting skill gets to in dragon ball. So, maybe?
I don't think that it is possible to get a margin that large without using something like Seer Path to Victory, some sort of magical deception effect, or some crazy elite / legendary talent akin to Papata's exploding dice trick.
That being said, the QM said that even with the massive margins she had with exploding dice (she had a margin of 159 on the roll they were referring to), she can't get people who have properly pre-committed not to say anything no matter what to give up their secrets, so I suspect that any mundane method would have similar limitations.
 
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Of course, that might have categorically failed just because of the limits of what Deceit can and cannot be used to do. It's not at all clear that you could use even, say, a relative margin of +200 or even +300 on the die roll from a Deceit check to convince someone to believe something completely counterfactual to their own immediately past actions like "you are a ham sandwich" or "that guy you thought you were fighting was actually a different guy."

A 200 point disparity on a deceit check generally comes with the ability to rapidly induce first existentialism and then existential dread.
"How can I know anything is true? For that matter, how can I actually know anything? Maybe I am a ham sandwich so lost in delusion that it believes that it is the patriarch of a Saiyan clan?"
 
Alright, it's been a night. Vote's open! Here are your defaults:

[ ] Planet Zebul. It has absolutely everything you need, if you can just dodge the soldiers. Dazarel has a point; Bassoon's used to doing just that, and the Refugees will be out of their element. And a part of you really wants to find out what the dragon has to teach you...
[ ] Planet 42-G. What with the strange characters and the need to time your exit right, this prospect is all about chance, but unlike the other options, it'll at least give you all some downtime, and let you plan your next step with less pressure.
[ ] Planet Pura. The middle-of-the-road option, but prone to cascade failures if you manage the risks poorly. Furthermore, you now know that here you're going to run into a psychic motivated to capture you to turn over to the Enemy. That said, Bassoon has a mind shielding ability; that should hopefully allow you to avoid this specific danger.

Somebody has written in the following:

[ ] Send Bassoon to Pura, and visit someone else in the meantime. Maybe we can reach the Guru if we try?

If you like it, vote for it.
How plausible is it that it would have worked? Would we have needed to roll significantly higher than he did?
Implausibly significantly, yes. The big issue with tactics like that is that, even with the nerf, what you're trying to convince him of is incredibly implausible on every level. It's the first Yammar's hearing of it (which is unlikely), why didn't you tell him any of these things at the start of the fight rather than as you start losing, how the hell would the aliens have gotten a mage onto Garenhuld in the first place, he has literally never heard of a spell acting as you describe, he knows as well as you do that while Dandelor and Dandeer are awesome mages Clan Goku has some nine thousand from which you could find another master, why would you be working with traitors for a year (their whole reason for being traitors being bound up in excellent reasons to dislike or disobey Dandeer, Yammar thinks that they are traitors with no justification for their actions), you despise Dandeer with every fiber of your being and have been acting like it, etc. Each one of these gives Yammar more circumstance bonuses on the check, and your Deceit is frankly not incredible.
Yeah, he's operating on, like 0.05 PL right now. I highly doubt he could get away with much, particularly when he somewhat literally has the fear of god in him, and he knows that the number of beings that would object to him being killed can likely be counted on one hand.

By the by, can you tell us what exactly the terms of the deal was @PoptartProdigy ? I mean, I can't see how it would hurt Dandeer's efforts, and Kakara's probably just as curious what Dandeer thought it was a good idea to offer the genocidal maniac with no reason to do what she said if he were unSealed as we are.
Good idea for an [ASK] vote, that.
This is an extremely good idea, though. @PoptartProdigy ?
You can do that.
 
[X] Planet Zebul. It has absolutely everything you need, if you can just dodge the soldiers. Dazarel has a point; Bassoon's used to doing just that, and the Refugees will be out of their element. And a part of you really wants to find out what the dragon has to teach you...
 
[X] Planet Zebul. It has absolutely everything you need, if you can just dodge the soldiers. Dazarel has a point; Bassoon's used to doing just that, and the Refugees will be out of their element. And a part of you really wants to find out what the dragon has to teach you...
 
[X] Planet Zebul. It has absolutely everything you need, if you can just dodge the soldiers. Dazarel has a point; Bassoon's used to doing just that, and the Refugees will be out of their element. And a part of you really wants to find out what the dragon has to teach you...
 
[X] Planet Zebul. It has absolutely everything you need, if you can just dodge the soldiers. Dazarel has a point; Bassoon's used to doing just that, and the Refugees will be out of their element. And a part of you really wants to find out what the dragon has to teach you...

[X] [ASK] How has Bassoon's anti-psychic measures held up in the past?
[X] [ASK] Basssoon, could you give me a quick rundown of your abilities?
[X] [ASK] How powerful are infantry blasters?
[X] [ASK] What did dandeer promise you Dazazel?
 
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[X] Planet Pura. The middle-of-the-road option, but prone to cascade failures if you manage the risks poorly. Furthermore, you now know that here you're going to run into a psychic motivated to capture you to turn over to the Enemy. That said, Bassoon has a mind shielding ability; that should hopefully allow you to avoid this specific danger.
[] Make sure to Masque yourself, and ask if Bassoon is good enough to apply an additional shield to our mind. Defense in depth is important.
[] Try to use your memory of the ki signatures of the ambushers to avoid that city. There is no need to take any unnecessary risks with them.
I think that the risks here are manageable. A psychic would have to penetrate into Bassoon's mind, get past Bassoon's wards, and read our mind through our ki based defense. I think that in a world where psychics are competitive with ki fighters who tend to be around 20 million, it seems like it would require exceptional mastery to do it quickly even if they are dedicated to the task, and there is no real indication this is anything more than a passing scan.
[X] Planet Zebul. It has absolutely everything you need, if you can just dodge the soldiers. Dazarel has a point; Bassoon's used to doing just that, and the Refugees will be out of their element. And a part of you really wants to find out what the dragon has to teach you...
That being said, Zebul seems like a sensible option that is hard to say is a bad idea.
[X] [ASK] How has Bassoon's anti-psychic measures held up in the past?
[X] [ASK] Basssoon, could you give me a quick rundown of your abilities?
[X] [ASK] How powerful are infantry blasters?
[X] While flying to our destination, ask to experiment with transferring Basssoon ki.
Bassoon seems to be a competent mage and ki user, and possesses some form of shielding magic, and we have quite a bit of time to go before we reach the planets. This seems like a win-win.
Also, spending five seconds thinking about it, there has to be some hidden reason why the Enemy hasn't just blown up the galaxy, going 'scorched earth' to prevent the Saiyan's from resupplying from anywhere.
 
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I listed some big ones in that post, but we also see it in that update itself with him backing off a few times at dandeer flail and iirc a few times earlier? I'll try to track them down for you if I need to but it'd be kinda annoying because I don't remember, like, details of phrasing that I would require for a thread search tool to be very fruitful.

Again, magically enforced lobotomy; I find it VERY hard to believe Yammar was making optimal decisions while under the influence of multiple mind control spells.

But that being said, I think you're oversimplifying a good deal, and thus missing some nuance between the "Yammar is optimally rational" and "Yammar is just plain dumb" options.

I think the most likely explanation is that Yammar has deep-seated personal trauma related to hostages* such that ever since he has dogmatically adhered to a pre-commitment to never, ever, EVER let a hostage-taker win. Like, he would rather lose everything than let anyone ever score a tactical victory against him by taking hostages. Because that's already happened to him, once, and he did lose almost everything, and has lived a hollow life for roughly thirty years since that time, so what more can he possibly lose that would be significant compared to what's already happened?

Which isn't so much 'stupid' as, well, the product of a horrific personal experience that triggered a descent into madness from which he never really recovered.

----------------------------------------

*(Ever wonder what happened to Yammar's wife, Lord Vegeta's mother? How about Yammar's mother? Siblings? It's plausible that they were just never mentioned, but that's far from the only explanation, and given that the Talts were aggressive enough to ambush his father, the then-Patriarch, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they tried to take members of his family hostage to force him to stand down)
I'll own that, yeah. I don't think it's as dogmatic as you suspect, given how he reacted to dandeer-flail in the timeline we did see, but you're definitely right that there's a spectrum between "Is actually stupid / uninformed" and "is traumatized / completely uninformed" that I was glossing over and shouldn't have. I definitely think that Yammar doesn't know what he's doing, and that the first of the two plays a significant part rather than merely the latter, but that's not exactly the same thing as saying he's actually dumb and I should (and thus will) walk back those claims.

Thanks for the sanity check there.



[X] Planet Zebul. It has absolutely everything you need, if you can just dodge the soldiers.
-[X] While flying to our destination, ask to experiment with transferring Basssoon ki.

Like, the choices were mostly competative when we didn't know about the psychic. Now we've updated our priors on Zebul and Pura's Payoff : Downside ratios, which leaves me with this choice. Wouldn't be totally opposed to 42-B though.

[X] [ASK] How has Bassoon's anti-psychic measures held up in the past?
[X] [ASK] Basssoon, could you give me a quick rundown of your abilities?
[X] [ASK] How powerful are infantry blasters?
[X] [ASK] What did dandeer promise you Dazazel?

also, considering that we do have a psychic who's used their powers on people with masques

[X] [ASK] Can psychic powers see through masques, and if so how difficult is it?
 
Isn't this irrelevant? I mean, when masqued, we remember being Saiyan, but have the ki of a human. Human minds can be read so...
Psychic powers aren't just limited to reading minds, and in specific our midnd is no longer easy to read. They can see shades, though, so the question is if they could detetct that we were masqued, that we were a masqued saiyan, or none of the above without reading the mind directly first?

Quite frankly, if we knew more about psychic powers the question might well be irrelevant, but we don't, so...
 
[X] Planet Pura. The middle-of-the-road option, but prone to cascade failures if you manage the risks poorly. Furthermore, you now know that here you're going to run into a psychic motivated to capture you to turn over to the Enemy. That said, Bassoon has a mind shielding ability; that should hopefully allow you to avoid this specific danger.
- [X] Make sure to Masque yourself, and ask if Bassoon is good enough to apply an additional shield to our mind. Defense in depth is important.
I think that the risks here are manageable. A psychic would have to penetrate into Bassoon's mind, get past Bassoon's wards, and read our mind through our ki based defense. I think that in a world where psychics are competitive with ki fighters who tend to be around 20 million, it seems like it would require exceptional mastery to do it quickly even if they are dedicated to the task, and there is no real indication this is anything more than a passing scan.
 
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