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Fair enough. If I think Yammar's plan is kinda dumb, it does behoove me to explain why.I notice that the discussion has been bouncing endlessly around the whole, "evidence of absence," thing. While technically true, it does — fittingly — make the discussion impossible to usefully or conclusively resolve. Let's try another tack. Q, perhaps you could instead explain for the thread why exactly Yammar's displayed use of game theory is flawed/misconceived/etc. It occurs that we seem to have skipped that step, and I feel like it would be a more stable foundation for the discussion.
So. As near as we can tell, Yammar's policy for hostages is
Which, ok, fair enough! Precommiting to not let hostages work on you is one of the archetypal forms of precommitment. The problem is that Yammar doesn't know what he's doing, because the way he set things up gives him almost all of the downsides to precommiting without giving him many of the benefits; rather than a potent tool that exchanges flexibility for feats that would be ultimately impossible, he instead created a strategy which hurts his own interests.He was willing to call the bluff. Yammar is very much of the, "don't let hostage-taking work," mindset.
...Yammar is not willing to negotiate. Kakara locked him for a bit in the manner you saw, but threats against Dandeer's safety just result in Yammar charging, because he's of the opinion that the only way to not let hostages be effective is to refuse to negotiate with them as leverage.
To explain, here is what we know about yammar's stance in detail (aside from the parts seen in story):
andKakara tries to use Dandeer as cover while she heals people? I know for a fact that Yammar's response to that is a wide-area blast, forcing Kakara to break concentration to avoid her shield being vaporized. Have Kakara IT away? Well, the issue is that Yammar's response to Kakara trying that is, again, a wide-angle blast.
Yammar's anti-hostage trick is simultaneously so strong that he's willing to kill the person he's rescuing, rather than let them be used against his rescue (which is in itself a clear sign that his precommitment is broken), but also not strong enough to actually stop people from using hostages against him. Now, it's arguable that he was mind controlled into giving this reasoning, and that actually the sole reason he doesn't act is mind control rather than hostages; this solves that problem, right?As I said, this is about Yammar being afraid of what Dandeer might pull if she is challenged while she holds Yammar's family's minds in her grip. He is afraid of what contingencies she may have prepared, and is not confident in his ability to prevent them.
This is less a matter of governmental legitimacy, from Yammar's perspective, and more a matter of how he can get his son and grandson out of suicide vests while his daughter-in-law is holding something that may be a detonator, a dead man switch, or both.
No, voice inside my head who I'm expositing to, it doesn't. The main lever of precommitting is "being seen to precommit." It's why (in theory) organizations like the US government announce that they "won't negotiate with terrorists" or people tie blindfolds or take out their steering wheel if they're serious about winning games of chicken. The more credible you can make your commitment, the less you get called on it. The issue is, Yammar didn't do any of that. Not only has he not even made sure Kakara was aware of said policy, she's actively seen examples of him violating it, which reflects in her actions. The precommitment holds no force to prevent his opponent from using hostages, and leaves him with the unenviable position of "follow the precommitment to its stupid end and kill the person that is literally the sole reason he's having the fight and is his sole goal" and "abandon the precommitment, leaving you weaker than if you hadn't even tried in the first place."
You can't even make the argument that "it worked out, so maybe he just knew kakara" because those were, in fact, options we could have picked. Bear in mind that that update was the one where poptart cut off voting and just picked the choice with best chance of sucess; rather than "voters as kakara wouldn't choose to use dandeer as a shield to heal allies" it's "voters as kakara didn't get the choice." In short, the decision that got yammar the result he was aiming for came from an entirely different source than the one that all of Kakara's previous actions allow him to model, so there's just no way for him to have done so. It's definitely likely that we would have picked this anyway, and from kakara's PoV the results aren't that different, but the same isn't true of Ymmar's PoV, and it's nowhere near enough of a sure thing for that kind of a gamble to work from yammar.
This isn't really complex stuff, from a game theoretic PoV, and I hardly credit the possibility that you can have Mathematics of even modern levels without game theory this basic; if anything, I would consider saiyan!garenhuld's game theory to likely be better than ours. This leaves the only real possibilities that Yammar is too stupid to figure these out, or so arrogant and foolish he didn't even bother to learn the basics of what he was doing before blindly leaping to cripple himself by precommitment. Neither one of these speaks well of the intellect he's applying to the problem at hand.
I still like my take .Okay now THAT is a hilarious way to exploit the well-documented tendency of Dandeer's mind control victims to suck at Deceit checks.
I... may actually be able to come up with something more glorious than this, but I can't possibly come up with something funnier.
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