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Paths of Civilization

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@Academia Nut
Nemesis Fashion should probably be added to the stat sheet, and Astrology -> Predictive Astrology?

Anyway, here's a consolidated list of why I'm voting in favor of following the prediction

1) I'm actually now moderately convinced that this is a low-magic setting. The descriptions of our Martial genius go beyond mere extreme ability- they correctly predicted her brother's death when there really should've been no way that was possible. We do not have sufficient proof of this yet, but I suspect that everyone at 'genius' rating has some degree of magic.

2) The hypothesis has been tested before. While not enough, it has correctly predicted multiple disasters. It is making hard predictions that are being satisfied. While they might only be relevant to the weather, these predictions are coming from mathematics and history, not just random pattern-matching. There may not be causation, but they have definitely noticed some amount of correlation.

3) 'Yes' tests the prediction harsher than 'no'. If we do 'Yes' then we've got free reign to try to crush our Golden Age under the weight of kicks and advancements ASAP. If we do 'no' then any random thing going wrong will lead to them being more convinced that it's correct.

4) If we can keep the Thunder Horse and the Swamp People around, then we maintain more of a balance of powers. Just like how the Xoh ensured the lowlands weren't consolidated under the TH or the HK, we want to reinforce the weaker powers whenever we can to keep any one group from dominating.
 
Ok, a lot of people are voting for this based on the results of the prediction: war/peace/whatever.

This doesn't matter. This choice isn't about war or who we go to war with in the end. It isn't about any of that.

Think of this choice narratively. What does it mean?

Yes: Yes we accept this prediction and what at will entail for our future administrative choices and the position of the stars has measurable, significant effect on all mortal matters. We accept that we will change our entire course based upon a change in the stars. In the future, before making critical choices, we will consult the priests and the stars to divine any possible outcome.

No: We have never consulted the stars to divine the future before and have made both good and bad choices. We will continue as before. This information is interesting and certainly bears study, but we will not make a decision based solely upon this information. Ere must be other factors present.

There is a reason astrology developed so readily in ancient cultures. Correlating harvests to planetary movements is both easy and actually correct. Good harvests almost invariably leads to prosperity and happiness, and the motion of the planets and stars falls on a regular clock that can and should be used to align planting seasons. This is what our priests were studying. There is literally no logical basis to base predictions for wars, and events on stellar and planetary movements.

If this is a resurgence of the magic debate I will again remind you guys that we have exactly as much proof of magic here as we have of the fact that my Cancer horoscope says I'm going to have a shitty week, and I'm sitting here drinking margaritas on the beach.

I know a lot of you are choosing this action because the TH snubbed us or you don't want to attack the HK, but this choice will radically reshape how the people make big choices. We will likely see severe repercussions for avoiding the astrological choice in the future. Do you guys recall the metal is cursed malus? Please reconsider.
 
Could I collectively ask the thread that if you feel strongly enough about something that you would resort to insulting other posters, that you just back away from the thread for a bit?

I get that tempers can rise, but it would be for the best if we not let our tempers get the best of us and instead attempt to create a fun, inviting environment.
 
Academia Nut said:
The sophistication and complexity was extreme, and we began to literally dig up ancient records of harvest results to compare to noted astrological phenomena. You see, astrology is the study of history as much as it is the study of the heavens. The gods reveal their signs and portents through the motions of the heavens, but unless you know what they did the last time there was a certain alignment or disruption you can't have any idea what any given sign might mean.
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So from this what I'm getting is that this is less based upon pure mysticism, but arguably a proto form of historiography or social-economics. Us taking certain actions could lead to a negative spiral for our populace if we're being referenced to something else, particularly if they are refering to an ecological phenomena that could be upcoming. Thus it'd be quite easy with our various traits to take stability hits from environment, take stability hits from potential intrigue by either Highlander diplomatic/intrigue hero or the corruption within our society, and combined with the Priests being shown to be right ...

Academia Nut said:
At least -1 RA if they are completely wrong but ignored.
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when at minimum if they're completetly wrong we still lose RA, if they're right the consequences could pile up. Worsened further by the prior notes about our Blackbirds likely in some fashion being compromised, and a Mystic Genius being ignored, to suffer a rupture. Particularly with the new value meaning enough stabiity hits means our legitimacy starts being tanked, and we've already used our stability mitigator on the refugee's.

The fact is that the burden of proof seems to be drastically one sided in this discussion. If we pick no and anything bad happens, they're proven right with the likely severe consequences that follow. If we do what they say (and notably they quadruple checked this, so there's no getting out of it with "Oh you misinterpreted it"), and a century of golden age and peace and prosperity doesn't happen they're proven wrong and we can get this out of the way with potential improvements to Lore of Wisdom. The first one is simply far more likely to happen and the Priests being proven correct in some fashion due to the amount of things that simply could go wrong that they can point too, that makes me heavily dislike going for the no option. That's not regarding the possibility this is a magic setting in some function.

Regardless, if you guys that dislike the Highkingdom to such an extent believe that they are untrustworthy, then this is arguably the ideal opportunity. If we listen and go attack the Thunder Horse and they take the logical opportunity of aiming to strike while we'd be in a two front war, then there's nothing stopping us from forcing a white peace on the Thunder Horse and swinging around with out admin hero/military genius + her heir/mysticism genius, our large martial score and military techs, and double mercanary company to take care of them once and for all.

And if they don't do that, then perhaps that's just as good a thing. It means we can likely mitigate the debilitating belief, invite them to the Games for more diplomacy, and given just how close we are given we surround them on three sides, and the fact we've assimilated one of their beliefs, have an overwelming cultural and religious dominance (+mysticism hero), then we can likely diplomatic vassal them.

Going to war with the Thunder Horse does make a certain amount of sense too if we can preserve the Swamp People, the old Thunder Speaker territory seems prime for us given there is a clear border with a river, and there should be another natural wonder there. We've alse seen them be quite beligerant in the last couple turns so should they win the war I wouldn't be surprised if they turned their attention to attacking us anyway. Another benefit is making them come to the Games could mean that those to the east of them get word of it given they're connected, and that could be pretty phenomnal if we get some people from not-India coming over.

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@Academia Nut - is there a reason the Law didn't proc on the province actions?
 
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[X] No (???)

Fuck no people are gonna have to accept that they can't predict everything, or appease their deities to avoid pain. Shit happens make black soil and plant some trees.
 
[X] Yes (Forfeits the CB against the Highlanders, declares war against the Thunder Horse, brings Yenyna out of retirement, ???)

Religious junk aside, I want it to be known that the Ymaryn can put aside their personal enmity if the situation calls for it.

Besides, Thunder Horse have been insulting us, let us not let that stand.
 
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pbluekan said:
Do you guys recall the metal is cursed malus? Please reconsider.
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I consider this a major reason to vote for yes. If we do no and things go wrong, we effectively have significant evidence towards that. If we do yes, we can purposefully push as hard as possible and see if things go wrong (likely) and then we've disproved the superstition.
Neptune said:
@Academia Nut - is there a reason the Law didn't proc on the province actions?
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Yeah, Balanced can only double Expand Economy. Which is why I disagree with our admin guy choosing Balanced, we've still got the Population Explosion going and more megaprojects are still viable.
 
[X] Yes (Forfeits the CB against the Highlanders, declares war against the Thunder Horse, brings Yenyna out of retirement, ???)
 
notgreat said:
Yeah, Balanced can only double Expand Economy. Which is why I disagree with our admin guy choosing Balanced, we've still got the Population Explosion going and more megaprojects are still viable.
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We fulfilled faction quests more easily with Balanced, so it isn't a bad choice. Plus, we're working on one other megaproject anyway.
 
pbluekan said:
Ok, a lot of people are voting for this based on the results of the prediction: war/peace/whatever.

This doesn't matter. This choice isn't about war or who we go to war with in the end. It isn't about any of that.

Think of this choice narratively. What does it mean?

Yes: Yes we accept this prediction and what at will entail for our future administrative choices and the position of the stars has measurable, significant effect on all mortal matters. We accept that we will change our entire course based upon a change in the stars. In the future, before making critical choices, we will consult the priests and the stars to divine any possible outcome.

No: We have never consulted the stars to divine the future before and have made both good and bad choices. We will continue as before. This information is interesting and certainly bears study, but we will not make a decision based solely upon this information. Ere must be other factors present.

There is a reason astrology developed so readily in ancient cultures. Correlating harvests to planetary movements is both easy and actually correct. Good harvests almost invariably leads to prosperity and happiness, and the motion of the planets and stars falls on a regular clock that can and should be used to align planting seasons. This is what our priests were studying. There is literally no logical basis to base predictions for wars, and events on stellar and planetary movements.

If this is a resurgence of the magic debate I will again remind you guys that we have exactly as much proof of magic here as we have of the fact that my Cancer horoscope says I'm going to have a shitty week, and I'm sitting here drinking margaritas on the beach.

I know a lot of you are choosing this action because the TH snubbed us or you don't want to attack the HK, but this choice will radically reshape how the people make big choices. We will likely see severe repercussions for avoiding the astrological choice in the future. Do you guys recall the metal is cursed malus? Please reconsider.
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Just because the first iterations of pattern recognition seem silly to us now, does not mean they should be tossed out of hand. This is both looking at the stars and our own history. Just like with our traits, if we want it to be move beyond that, we need to take the first step.

[X] Yes (Forfeits the CB against the Highlanders, declares war against the Thunder Horse, brings Yenyna out of retirement, ???)
 
Kiba said:
[X] No (???)

@pbluekan got a good point, but a lot of people are arguing that following the prediction tests with LoW harder.

@Academia Nut Which tests the prediction harder? No or yes?
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I dunno, I think the thing here is going with he prediction is a strike against love of wisdom. Essentially just accepting the truth of these predictions, when we have never relied heavily on them for decision making before is pretty much antithetical to the entire idea that love of wisdom espouses.

Stealthy said:
[x] No
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Needs to be No (???)
 
[X] Yes (Forfeits the CB against the Highlanders, declares war against the Thunder Horse, brings Yenyna out of retirement, ???)
 
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