"Literally" no point, eh? How about not wasting actions and resources? It is enough reason for me.


Look over the history of the Red Banner. So far, they've steamrolled everything even close to the same size as them. Unless the Trelli literally send 4 or more mercenaries at us immediately, I don't see us losing the land in one turn. And if it takes longer than that, we can commit the army actions then.


Have you ever heard of logistics?

This time Banner will have almost no reinforcement due to low local population, no source of Iron resupply unless we win the sea, no steady source of food or coin unless we win the sea...logistically we have never ever done anything even remotely this hard in war.
 
We used to be a lot more conservative in our policy. I don't know when or why the thread has done a complete 180, but what amazes me is the lack of awareness here. I say this as one of the more traditionally aggressive people too!

Sigh, the pains of being a moderate.
I think this is partially due to you winning on the action economy argument. Our action count has DOUBLED in the past 220 years (from 18->36). That means that we actually can juggle a lot more stuff at once.
 
There is no reason to take the risks of settling the North now, either. If you want to do something less immediately risky, vote for the Eastern Trading Post, or join me in my vote to Found Mercenary Company.
I am already voting for the Eastern Trading Post. In my mind the Eastern Trading post + More Boats combo should help deter / prepare for Trelli raiders.
 
We used to be a lot more conservative in our policy. I don't know when or why the thread has done a complete 180, but what amazes me is the lack of awareness here. I say this as one of the more traditionally aggressive people too!
This whole series of events has happened before with the Spirit Talkers whenever we feel that a civ will be a major threat in the future we sabotage them we did it when we sent out the nomads to cause chaos in the lowlands, we did it to the spirit talkers when they were about to diplo annex the nomads, we blocked the HK from getting access to the sea now we are about to do it to the Trelli.
 
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We used to be a lot more conservative in our policy. I don't know when or why the thread has done a complete 180, but what amazes me is the lack of awareness here. I say this as one of the more traditionally aggressive people too!
It is very simple to explain: people just go by whatever they saw last.

Consider our latest couple of turns.
Cultural friction - We had just learned about the tax crisis. Hit things off by going Palace x2, trying to finish it ASAP.
Palace plans - We just saw the palace annexes. A multitude of people vote for 8 annexes, despite it adding 7 extra actions on our palace megaproject. There is also widespread support for a capital that requires a significant amount of short-term work in return for benefits way in the future.
Make the punching stop - We had the mine collapse. People neglect the megaproject to the point of losing the bonus Law Action to make the "thematics" of our response fit their preferred aesthetic.
Shifting winds - We are told that the Trelli have started using currency and mercenaries. Oh, and they are making pirate noises. Clearly, we must action on this immediately.
 
It is very simple to explain: people just go by whatever they saw last.

Consider our latest couple of turns.
Cultural friction - We had just learned about the tax crisis. Hit things off by going Palace x2, trying to finish it ASAP.
Palace plans - We just saw the palace annexes. A multitude of people vote for 8 annexes, despite it adding 7 extra actions on our palace megaproject. There is also widespread support for a capital that requires a significant amount of short-term work in return for benefits way in the future.
Make the punching stop - We had the mine collapse. People neglect the megaproject to the point of losing the bonus Law Action to make the "thematics" of our response fit their preferred aesthetic.
Shifting winds - We are told that the Trelli have started using currency and mercenaries. Oh, and they are making pirate noises. Clearly, we must action on this immediately.
Kinda like real civilizations then, we put the most emphasis on the current issues.
 
I am already voting for the Eastern Trading Post. In my mind the Eastern Trading post + More Boats combo should help deter / prepare for Trelli raiders.
Huh. Would'ja look at that?

In that case, out of respect for your self-consistency, I'll join you.

[X] [Exp] Found Trelli Trade Post, East
[X] [Diplo] Need a bigger boat (Main More Boats)
[X] [Int] Party! (Main Improve Festival)
 
Seriously guys stop panicking do remember that currency is a very advanced tech one that needs the support of three mega projects and the Trelli are a city state meaning they cannot rush their mega projects so eventually they too will experience a need for a tax reform that will drain their wealth which will cause their mercenary companies to turn on them.
 
[X] [Exp] Found Mercenary Company
[X] [Diplo] Tie everything further together (Main New Trails)
[X] [Int] Party! (Main Improve Festival)

Instead of trying to deal with the next crisis, maaaaaaybe we should worry more about all of our CURRENT crises? We need more connectivity and integration right now, we just can't afford all the actions we'd have to sink to get to naval superiority over the Trelli currently. But we don't have to! We're basically an empire, they are basically a city state. They are no threat to us in the short or medium term, and in the medium term we can tech up very fast. In the short term we have three megaprojects to build and tons of roads to add and Stallions to integrate and...
 
Someone asked why the thread and by extension the Ymaryn are more aggressive than in the past. the short answer is IMO because we can. Here's my take on the long answer:

  1. Way back during the late copper age we were counting on the balance of power in the Lowlands and generally keeping our heads down to stay out of trouble with the neighbors. We figured (correctly) that they were much better at fighting. The most common talk of war was about "the button," which is to say straining our prosperity and traits to the limit in order to present and OoC problem: the Ymaryn Zerg rush.
  2. The came the Eastern Thunder Horse, sweeping aside two of the the other powers of the Lowlands and becoming the local hegemonic power. the only things that kept us from panicking were the administrative strain the ETH would suffer fighting us and iron, though we really did not understand how much of a game changer iron was at that time.
  3. Just before the climate started to kick everyone's teeth in the Xoh took over the TH and the newly renamed TS, eliminating the issue of admin strain. People were talking about allying with the Highlanders to stop the behemoth...
  4. Then Mother Nature screwed the Xoh... hard and the Lowlands returned to status quo pre Eastern Thunder Horse. Everyone was happy and we sent out new mercs to stir the pot and get us some loot. That was the turning point.... The Red Banner Company won two wars in one turn against the current hegemonic power, the Xoh Empire. And that is when we realized we were the new hegemon, not by some quirk of the dice, but because we were just better at making war than our neighbors through a combination of our government, our values and our tech.
  5. To cap it all off we ripp the still beating heart out of Xohyr in a turn and a half, then fight a two (or three front) war and win so handily we make a profit of it.

Is is any wonder war does not scare us as much as it once did?
 
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Seriously guys stop panicking

I don't think a western trade post is panicking. Some of the imagined responses people against it are having seem more the product of panic then the decision to build it.

I think it's honestly unlikely the Trelli do more than some exploratory raiding through cutouts. They have their hands very full trying to manage all the shenanigans they've started in the other end of the strait, they're riding the tiger down there at this point and can't afford to take their attention away from it for long or in force.

A trading post along with a main build boat action which will close a good bit of the gap between the effectiveness of our ships that's supported by the red banner along with the knowledge that the greater Ymaryn state is behind them is going to be a very unappetizing dish for them to contemplate trying to swallow.

This isn't an action they're going to be happy about, but it's not stepping on their bottom line to the point they're likely to abandon all their other interests to monofocus on it if the results of some 'independent' pirates having a go show that it's not going to fall over without significant and sustained investment on their part.
 
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Last but not least, the Trellians are not surrounded by opportunistic backstabbers like we are. Throwing Martial this faraway and hoping everything works out is a gamble which once again I don't wish to take and I hope people would reconsider.
They explicitly are? They're currently buying off a bunch of said backstabbers, and invested into a foreign civil war with their mercenaries.
Unless they have siegecraft, a walled TP is pretty much "go home".
And yep. Once the Walls, especially Large, Mortared walls, the answer to closed gates is "welp, go home"
Oh fuck.

I need to re-evaluate our threat rating in my head now, because that is broken as hell.
Slurp
@veekie, you use log drivers to guide the logs. As for risks to shipping, you can create time lines for shipping and log driving to avoid the hazards.
But yes the major benefits of the north would not be reaped in a generation. But two to six turns down the line it would provide us with an advantage that states couldn't dream of before the age of imperialism.



Interesting, and yes, fully agreed. It's lucrative long term, but it only divides our attention in the short term.
A new type of Vampirism....
Slurp
Log driving would be an incredibly dangerous job. I am not sure if the Ymaryns are willing to do that.
Honorable Death. It'd be like the mines, though it does depend on adding enough value(we're perfectly happy to sacrifice people to achieve goals, but they need to be worth it, not just economical).

In our case we're probably just going to set up asheries in the trade post instead.
@Academia Nut, what happened to the Eastern Nomads that were mentioned in this long ago post?

Original - Paths of Civilization | Page 1938

Are they the ancestors of the Heaven's Hawk tribes? Because if so, oh my I love the narrative.

We were friends long ago, and then their children saved our children from civil war.
Yep, the Hawks timeline was:
-Nomad Heroic Diplomat spawns. Makes friends with Ymaryn Heroic Diplomat.
-Ymaryn Heroic Diplomat talks philosophy with him and then gives him a Salt Gift.
-Nomad Heroic Diplomat uses the salt to make a network of trade and friendships across the eastern steppes.
-Nomad Heroic Warleader + Son shows up. Hawks driven off while trying to help Ymaryn
-Waagh bounces off Ymaryn after warleader is killed on their second pass, is never seen again.
-Turns out the Hawks rounded up more nomads and killed the son, then came back to look for the "salt people"
-Ymaryn: "The fire is warm"
@veekie, while your arguments have merit, it will still be very hard to defend due to logistical concerns, especially with contested waters.
Are you willing to actually fully support this colony? I mean..are you going to vote for Support Subordinate at them next turn? Because colony in hostile lands is going to be very vulnerable and we have to kickstart it.

No we got bonuses for being the defenders in war, being provocative ensures that the Trelli probably attack first and we get those defensive benefits
Amazing trait for being passive aggressive really.
Seriously, folks who vote for passive-agressive trade post: we will pretty much have to Main Support Subordinate them to give them seed economy for turn 1 walls and warriors, which they will be pretty much locked in.

It gives us 3 econ slots and room to handle Stallion Martial on integration, so it is a great action during baby boom, but we need thread discipline to not chase something else only to get fycked by Trelli rolling Heroic Martial.
They can afford Turn 1 Walls already incidentally(they only cost 1 Econ for basic walls(which are mortared), 2 for major, trade posts start with 2 Econ and build a settlement giving them a third), but I see no problems with sending support, though more boats to trigger further innovations may be more useful.
Actually, AN said that the way to get pine trees was to establish a Northern trading post.
Yes. That was in reference to people saying maybe we could just trade mission for their seeds.

Careful plans are first casualty of war, and Trelli *can* roll Heroic Martial or just hire enough dudes in enough time to bumrush our dudes faster than they can build a wall.
Especially since their starting Econ probably will not be all that much, so I am not sure whether they will even be able to afford a wall wihout support.
They'd have to be psychic then, because they dont have surveillance.
They'd get word of the new trade post when it gets built
Well looks like we are going to war next turn oh well peace was fun while it lasted I guess
This is to prevent war. As had already been explained, the only way to put a stopper in the piracy is to have a nearby base(East or West trade post) and control over a strategic good(West trade post).

Everything else just leads to war when the Trelli finally get enough Wealth via Tin/Bronze dominances to pay for a truly large mercenary army and make the same discovery we do(that foreign wars don't really last that long when you start throwing extra armies in)...which would take a few turns. Then they're going to start predating.

Have you ever heard of logistics?

This time Banner will have almost no reinforcement due to low local population, no source of Iron resupply unless we win the sea, no steady source of food or coin unless we win the sea...logistically we have never ever done anything even remotely this hard in war.
Actually we do have resupply. Land/Coast route from Greenshore, which has a coastal route from Western Wall. Also this is assuming we auto-lose the sea battles...which isn't a given because we're still in the era of boarding actions and we have quality advantage there. So overall, it requires that the Trelli:
-Immediately declare war while they are stuck in on the other side of the sea against their biggest trade partner.
-Achieve total naval superiority.
-Achieve significant land superiority
--Develop siegecraft

Seriously guys stop panicking do remember that currency is a very advanced tech one that needs the support of three mega projects and the Trelli are a city state meaning they cannot rush their mega projects so eventually they too will experience a need for a tax reform that will drain their wealth which will cause their mercenary companies to turn on them.

By which time they'd have taken to raiding Hatvalley and Greenshow however? A Wealth collapse can take up to 10 turns for a trade power.
The ones panicking are not the West Trade Post voters man.
 
Well, as long as the coin keeps flowing that is.
As soon as that coin stops the trelli will implode and banditry in that area will explode in numbers

If i recall correctly AN said merc states like the trelli are shapping up to be in game and RL were very successful right up until the bubble burst and then the whole place was on fire. So if we can pop that bubble then that area becomes just bandits and a failed state and we resume dominance as the premier power.

I wonder how Negaverse trelli are feeling right now, I also wonder how they will feel in 3-7 turns when we knock them over.
 
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Yeah founding the Western trade post clashes with what we just did. It's a bad idea.
Read the quote again. It says:

"The gods lifted their curse in reward for us not encouraging strife for profit. We should get the Trelli to do the same."

Hm. Actually. That could mean following down this path could have our values develop in some missionary directions...

The north post would be on the river, and the Russian riverine network is both deep, flat and Interconnected. This means that we can do what historical riverine societies did. Float the logs down the river. This is a development that won't take long to occur.
Yeah, that is in fact quite possible. That was the usual historical way to "ship" bulk lumber along rivers. However, the route would still go all the way through Nomadistan...

The plausible deniability of pirates being set loose by them
Even if we can't prove Trelli sponsors them, well, we can "politely ask" for their support, as two civilized trading nations, to eradicate piracy in the region. And if they don't comply they get cut off from their tin if we have the western trade post.

---

[X] [Exp] Found Trelli Trade Post, West
[X] [Diplo] Need a bigger boat (Main More Boats)
[X] [Int] Party! (Main Improve Festival)

Yes, I've argued long and hard against attacking Trelli. Yes, this might provoke a war. But it's still not the same thing. That territory where we would set up a trade post appears to be Terra Nullis. We are well in our rights to set up shop there. And if the Trelli throw a hissy fit about this, well, then they have started the war. And we really do need to do something about their piracy. The main argument for me here is what veekie has said - we need to gain control of the tin access before Trelli does! And since there is a morally entirely justified way of doing that, even if it might provoke the Trelli, let's do that.
 
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@Academia Nut if we integrate the Stallions and end up with red martial, would our warriors act out on their own even if we are above 0 stability?

Given how high above the safe cap you would likely be... yes, very much so.

given that putting a trade post up north is considered dangerous, what actions can we take to mitigate the danger?

Station at least one mercenary company there full time and then hope the environment doesn't screw you over for the first three turns.

can we get the option to send the red banners this midturn alongside the expansion pick?

Automatic.

So, we used our watermill to crush ores, mill grains, and make black soils, right?

Yes.

what happened to the Eastern Nomads that were mentioned in this long ago post?

Original - Paths of Civilization | Page 1938

Are they the ancestors of the Heaven's Hawk tribes? Because if so, oh my I love the narrative.

We were friends long ago, and then their children saved our children from civil war.

Yes, that is what happened.

do the trelli have the needed mega projects in place to use currency without causing problems and if not from our advisors estimates how long till they experience a tax crisis?

Insufficient information.
 
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