Martial needs to bleed off right the hell now.
[] Attempt peaceful contact
The worse happens the new march eats it. Them being a trade caravan and the march gets a major boost. Incharacter to test the waters first. Don't want a paranoia trait or instant negative reactions to outsiders.
The next part is trickier. A survey can be done, but guarantees nothing... which makes it best as a supplemental. Mine requires it to succeed so its going to be needed until completed. OTOH Study metal and study tailings are anytime with no prerequisites. So one of them must go first. Survey lands is the one thing we can subcontract out to the provinces without issue.
Restore Order failed blandly. It wasted options... thanks dice. So we are going to need to run secondary main grand sacrifice at some point.
Build mine is second or third turn. We have to find it first. I'm thinking study Health/tailings the second turn. Tailings is a new topic so it will get the biggest boost from study health. So:
[] Study Metal (-1 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Stability, improved chance of new insights)
[X] [March] Yes, send out the warriors (-5 Martial, -2 Econ)
[X] [Caravan] Attempt peaceful contact
[X] [Challenge] Study Metal (-1 Econ, -2 Mysticism, -1 Stability, improved chance of new insights)
So turn order: Half turn study metal as The People have experience with that. First turn grand sacrifice (stability faction strong) and find the mine location. Second turn study health and tailings. Then third turn mine and whatever. Unless first turn leads to subcontracting finding a mine location to mine.