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Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

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Sir Stompy said:
  • SSA Track 1: Air Leadening Rune
  • SSA Track 2: Icarus Rune
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No no no no.
Sir Stompy said:
Intended Duration: Until Hazou finishes one of the runes (???)
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Noooooooooo.

Neither of these runes are critical to the upcoming Akatsuki fight. We're *still* waiting on the prep results for last time.

Instead of wasting precious IC time on non-critical projects, let's give the QMs a chance to catch up, then advance the timeline with something actually useful(that we just did a prep day on)

Or buy DoB and yeet out some of the projects that used to be "Hazou could maybe".

We. Need. To. Research. Akatsuki-killers. In. A. Timely. Fashion.

Constantly getting distracted and advancing the clock by weeks spent on side projects is driving me up the fucking wall.

[X] QMs, what were the result of the previous prep days?
[X] Interlude
[X] Interlude: Kei's mission
 
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Depricated, on grounds of not having 100 xp to make DoB useful yet, and uncertainty if it's appropriate to include build dicisions as part of an action plan.

Or if we must advance the clock:

[] Action Plan: Now That's Cooking With Gas!
Intended Duration: not more than 2 research cycles

  • Exchange SSA for DoB
  • Move locations again when it's time. Clean up after yourself. Ask companions if it's time to leave Aisu Bay.
  • Rune Research
  • Full prep
    • SSA Track 1: Unchained TR150 Rune
    • SSA Track 2: Magnifying Glass Rune
  • Other two tracks on prep days until they're exhausted. Then Sealing and TH Notes
  • Cannai
    • Respectfully sir, if you send another raiding party, Hazou thinks a larger force is warranted. Our casualty ratio was too high for comfort. 9 to 6 is nearly even odds for them.
      • Dog's great strengths are their numbers, their cooperation, their ability to cover ground over the long distance, and their abilities as trackers.
      • That implies that a favorable strategy would be to harry the Leopard "packs" in groups too large for them to fight, and corner them when they have to defend their cubs or they're too tired to keep running.
        • Not that Hazou knows Dog's strengths better than Cannai does, but the thought occurred to him while he was cutting that Leopard in half.
    • Ask Cannai if he knows a Dog that might be interested in helping Hazou develop Roki into something that works on quadrupeds.
      • If so, ask him to introduce us, try to make a good impression (ie. don't go on a day with SSA Consequences)
      • Work on this during SSA rest days.
      • Do your best to incorporate Force Blades into the expanded taijutsu style
  • Misc
    • Give Noburi a copy of MS7 and ask him if he thinks there are medical uses.
    • Test if a HOWR makes a 5SB expire faster than it otherwise would
    • Test if something that puts off a lot of heat (like a campfire) will trigger LR seal set to receive below-red.
    • Study those strings from Gaku. do the shadow-lengths match in both locations?
 
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Honestly I'm surprised they bothered with the torture. As soon as it became obvious they weren't going to talk and were no longer needed to convince the other leopard to, just end it. It's not like anyone will ever know you lied about making it horrible if they didn't talk.

I know what the text says about commitments, but when did Hazou ever actually make a solid commitment here? As noted he's from mist - he can explain torture all day without batting an eye.
 
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Left-Hand Mutant said:
SSA Track 1: Unchained TR150 Rune
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Why is this in your plan after everything you said about needing to spend our time on actual Akatsuki counters? At least the Icarus Rune has potential value on the battlefield, especially if deployed by surprise.

If you mean for it to increase our total research time, I'm not super sure but let's figure that out. At our current TR125 state, we spend 21 hours per subjective day dilated, taking 16.8 solar hours in total. Add in 3 undilated hours of FOOM and we spend (rounded) 20 solar hours per subjective day. This equals a free subjective day every 5 calendar days. If we gain access to TR150, we spend 21 hours per subjective day dilated, taking 14 hours per day, plus 3 undilated hours for a total of 17 solar hours per subjective day. This means we can complete 7 subjective days in 119 solar hours, within a rounding error of 5 calendar days. In other words, a second free subjective day every 5 calendar days.

This means that getting TR150 only saves us one subjective day every 5 calendar days, in relation to the TR125 that we already have. A rune cycle is 5 days, right? Let's say we spend four cycles on this rune, since it's "Hazou thinks he could maybe do this rune". Call that half of our prime real estate for 20 days, or for convenience a flat 10 day investment. This rune takes 50 calendar days to break even (and it doesn't kick in for 20 days, so it only breaks even 70 days out from now).

That's nontrivial enough that I think we have to seriously ask how long of a time horizon we're still planning for. The comments I heard from Naruto seem to suggest he's inclined to wait until Akatsuki proper gathers at the rift site, at which point we somehow approach and assault them, sealing the rift behind anyone left inside and then yoinking it to an undisclosed location. This means the confrontation happens more or less on Akatsuki's timescale, which... we don't have a very good way to estimate. We could play dangerously by letting them sit at the rift for a while before striking, but we run the risk of them finding Pain unexpectedly early.

Do we think we still have 70 days left? This research is a net benefit if we do and is a net penalty if we don't. If we aggregate across our entire probability estimation, is the increased odds of victory across the probability chunk where we do have 70+ days left stronger than the decreased odds of victory across the probability chunk where we don't? What even is our overall chance of victory here? Do we need to make gambles like this or risk having no chance at all? Do we think we have it in the bag and shouldn't risk increasing any extant chances of failure?

(Also modulate all this by an appropriate amount if you figure the research will take more/less than 4 research cycles. If you think it's 3 cycles we only need like 53 days left, if you think it's 5 cycles we need a full 88 days.)

All in all, I'm genuinely unsure of where I stand here. I won't ask you to remove this from the plan, but I think we do need to have a more complete conversation about this and get our priors in order before we commit to gambles that only pay off under certain priors.
 
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Sir Stompy said:
[X] Action Plan: That's Right Kids, More Rune Research
Word Count: <299
Intended Duration: Until Hazou finishes one of the runes (???)
  • Move locations again when it's time. Clean up after yourself. Ask Kei if it's time to leave Aisu Bay.
  • Rune Research
  • Start off at full prep on all 3 tracks, drop days only if Hazoupilot is confident he isn't risking failure.
    • SSA Track 1: Air Leadening Rune
    • SSA Track 2: Icarus Rune
    • Non-SSA Track: Storage Rune (do not proceed in not ...well within...)
  • Other two tracks on prep days until they're exhausted. Then Sealing Notes
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Doing the Icarus Rune and Air Leadening Rune seems like a really bad idea when we should theoretically have the prep day results for Pure Force Dome and the two Beam Collimator variants (I'm assuming that they were the ones that got done, since they were the first ones on the list). If Pure Force Dome is achievable, it seems by far the most useful thing to work on, since there probably wouldn't be much/any complex multistep research required; we could just use it. Similarly, if either Beam Collimator works, that's the next step on the gamma-ray-laser research pathway.

Even if neither of those work, I think it would be better to go for a short plan this cycle and try to get all the prep days done so we can reassess what the best research candidates are. We're on a deadline, and there are runes on that list that could be really effective even in the basic form they're being prepped in if they turn out to work, no multistep research required. The Remote Explosive Rune in particular jumps out, for assaulting the rift site.

Left-Hand Mutant said:
[X] Action Plan: Now That's Cooking With Gas!
Intended Duration: not more than 2 research cycles

  • Exchange SSA for DoB
  • Move locations again when it's time. Clean up after yourself. Ask companions if it's time to leave Aisu Bay.
  • Rune Research
  • Full prep
    • SSA Track 1: Unchained TR150 Rune
    • SSA Track 2: Magnifying Glass Rune
  • Other two tracks on prep days until they're exhausted. Then Sealing and TH Notes
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A reminder that Hazō needs to have 100XP available to spend on a combination stunt (for DotB + Sealing bonus) in order for taking DotB to increase his PS instead of decreasing it. Currently, he has only 40. (Also, I agree with Inferno that researching Unchained TR150 is probably a bad idea at this point, though it's moot since without DotB Hazō can't risk it.)
 
Left-Hand Mutant said:
Exchange SSA for DoB
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Wait wait wait, hold on, you're trying to sneak this past us in an action plan? No, no way, that's awful.

This is a permanent, major change to our build. It is not the obviously correct choice, there are really truly very meaningful tradeoffs being made here, and I extremely do not want to take it now and then later find out that it was the wrong choice.

My cruxes are 1) once we obtain Minatosealing, if MS turns out to have its own stat instead of keying off Sealing, and 2) if our Akatsuki-killing mission can only possibly succeed with its help, i.e. if an irreplaceable rune effect is in "could maybe do" and we don't want to risk it without. If either of those things happen, I support DoB. Neither of those have happened, so I do not support DoB at this time.

Put your permanent major build changes in a training plan like everyone else.
 
Left-Hand Mutant said:
Or if we must advance the clock:

[X] Action Plan: Now That's Cooking With Gas!
Intended Duration: not more than 2 research cycles

  • Exchange SSA for DoB
  • Move locations again when it's time. Clean up after yourself. Ask companions if it's time to leave Aisu Bay.
  • Rune Research
  • Full prep
    • SSA Track 1: Unchained TR150 Rune
    • SSA Track 2: Magnifying Glass Rune
  • Other two tracks on prep days until they're exhausted. Then Sealing and TH Notes
  • Cannai
    • Respectfully sir, if you send another raiding party, Hazou thinks a larger force is warranted. Our casualty ratio was too high for comfort. 9 to 6 is nearly even odds for them.
      • Dog's great strengths are their numbers, their cooperation, their ability to cover ground over the long distance, and their abilities as trackers.
      • That implies that a favorable strategy would be to harry the Leopard "packs" in groups too large for them to fight, and corner them when they have to defend their cubs or they're too tired to keep running.
        • Not that Hazou knows Dog's strengths better than Cannai does, but the thought occurred to him while he was cutting that Leopard in half.
    • Ask Cannai if he knows a Dog that might be interested in helping Hazou develop Roki into something that works on quadrupeds.
      • If so, ask him to introduce us, try to make a good impression (ie. don't go on a day with SSA Consequences)
      • Work on this during SSA rest days.
      • Do your best to incorporate Force Blades into the expanded taijutsu style
  • Misc
    • Give Noburi a copy of MS7 and ask him if he thinks there are medical uses.
    • Test if a HOWR makes a 5SB expire faster than it otherwise would
    • Test if something that puts off a lot of heat (like a campfire) will trigger LR seal set to receive below-red.
    • Study those strings from Gaku. do the shadow-lengths match in both locations?
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That's gonna be $5 for the licensing fee.
Kyreneryk said:
Doing the Icarus Rune and Air Leadening Rune seems like a really bad idea when we should theoretically have the prep day results for Pure Force Dome and the two Beam Collimator variants (I'm assuming that they were the ones that got done, since they were the first ones on the list). If Pure Force Dome is achievable, it seems by far the most useful thing to work on, since there probably wouldn't be much/any complex multistep research required; we could just use it. Similarly, if either Beam Collimator works, that's the next step on the gamma-ray-laser research pathway.

Even if neither of those work, I think it would be better to go for a short plan this cycle and try to get all the prep days done so we can reassess what the best research candidates are. We're on a deadline, and there are runes on that list that could be really effective even in the basic form they're being prepped in if they turn out to work, no multistep research required. The Remote Explosive Rune in particular jumps out, for assaulting the rift site.
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I'll edit in one of the other ideas if they come back well within our capabilities. Given how most of our ideas go I'm not exactly feeling hopeful.

As for the plan length. If Hazou drops prep days we should be able to get a fair few cycles in before we run out of days. Probably 3? I can say to terminate the plan then, although probably not unless that's something other people want.
 
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[X] Training Plan Hazō: Next AB!

We need the QMs to give us the results of our previous plan's prep days before we move the timeline forwards.

Also I want to take DoB now right now, for the massive short-term benefits.
 
Left-Hand Mutant said:
No no no no.

Noooooooooo.

Neither of these runes are critical to the upcoming Akatsuki fight. We're *still* waiting on the prep results for last time.

Instead of wasting precious IC time on non-critical projects, let's give the QMs a chance to catch up, then advance the timeline with something actually useful(that we just did a prep day on)

Or buy DoB and yeet out some of the projects that used to be "Hazou could maybe".

We. Need. To. Research. Akatsuki-killers. In. A. Timely. Fashion.

Constantly getting distracted and advancing the clock by weeks spent on side projects is driving me up the fucking wall.

[X] QMs, what were the result of the previous prep days?
[X] Interlude
[X] Interlude: Kei's mission
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I'm going to try to be nice about this.

eaglejarl said:
Naruto additionally notes that telescopic scouting revealed that the rift site was "swarming with Jashinists", so another branch of technology that could be helpful would be something that can track ninja over long distances to make sure that nobody escapes to contact AMITY if Leaf needs to assault the rift site
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Air Leadeners are useful for trapping the Jashinists in place.
eaglejarl said:
As a bonus, defensive runes would also be useful against the likely AMITY retaliation.
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Icarus Runes are useful for defending Leaf against AMITY

We don't have any other useful prospects that are ...well within... our capabilities. If you want to take DoB and work on stuff that's ...maybe do..., and IV is right that an Action Plan is not the place for that, that's a whole 'nother conversation.

We're also 100 XP short of the combination stunt that would make this doable. DoB ain't much without that. I suggest taking the time to build up XP by working on other stuff.
T_of_A said:
Also I want to take DoB now right now, for the massive short-term benefits.
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There are no short term benefits until we can afford the combo stunt.
 
I'm not going to vote for any plan that has us buying DoB. I also do not believe it's kosher to put such in an action plan, when builds and character sheets are the realm of training plans --buying FP notwithstanding.

[X] Action Plan: That's Right Kids, More Rune Research

[X] Training Plan Hazō: Next AB!
 
[X] Training Plan Hazō: Next AB!
[X] Action Plan: That's Right Kids, More Rune Research

Stompy's pretty good at editing plans so if we get prep day results back we can modify stuff. I like the gist.
Sir Stompy said:
Cannai
  • Respectfully sir, if you send another raiding party, Hazou thinks a larger force is warranted. Our casualty ratio was too high for comfort. 9 to 6 is nearly even odds for them.
    • Dog's great strengths are their numbers, their cooperation, their ability to cover ground over the long distance, and their abilities as trackers.
    • That implies that a favorable strategy would be to harry the Leopard "packs" in groups too large for them to fight, and corner them when they have to defend their cubs or they're too tired to keep running.
      • Not that Hazou knows Dog's strengths better than Cannai does, but the thought occurred to him while he was cutting that Leopard in half.
  • Ask Cannai if he knows a Dog that might be interested in helping Hazou develop Roki into something that works on quadrupeds.
    • If so, ask him to introduce us, try to make a good impression (ie. don't go on a day with SSA Consequences)
    • Work on this during SSA rest days.
    • Do your best to incorporate Force Blades into the expanded taijutsu style
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Click to shrink...
Can we chat with Canzappu about the Sun Element techs? Do they stack with the amount of light in the area or something like that?
 
Kakashi was Jonin/diet S class, right? When did he got around to killing a hundred Leopard? Is losing hundreds of Leopard over the course of years of raiding sustainable?
 
Kyreneryk said:
A reminder that Hazō needs to have 100XP available to spend on a combination stunt (for DotB + Sealing bonus) in order for taking DotB to increase his PS instead of decreasing it.
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You're completely right.
Left-Hand Mutant said:
Depricated, on grounds of not having 100 xp to make DoB useful yet, and uncertainty if it's appropriate to include build dicisions as part of an action plan.

[] Action Plan: Now That's Cooking With Gas!
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Inferno Vulpix said:
Why is this in your plan after everything you said about needing to spend our time on actual Akatsuki counters? At least the Icarus Rune has potential value on the battlefield, especially if deployed by surprise.

If you mean for it to increase our total research time, I'm not super sure but let's figure that out. At our current TR125 state, we spend 21 hours per subjective day dilated, taking 16.8 solar hours in total. Add in 3 undilated hours of FOOM and we spend (rounded) 20 solar hours per subjective day. This equals a free subjective day every 5 calendar days. If we gain access to TR150, we spend 21 hours per subjective day dilated, taking 14 hours per day, plus 3 undilated hours for a total of 17 solar hours per subjective day. This means we can complete 7 subjective days in 119 solar hours, within a rounding error of 5 calendar days. In other words, a second free subjective day every 5 calendar days.

This means that getting TR150 only saves us one subjective day every 5 calendar days, in relation to the TR125 that we already have. A rune cycle is 5 days, right? Let's say we spend four cycles on this rune, since it's "Hazou thinks he could maybe do this rune". Call that half of our prime real estate for 20 days, or for convenience a flat 10 day investment. This rune takes 50 calendar days to break even (and it doesn't kick in for 20 days, so it only breaks even 70 days out from now).

That's nontrivial enough that I think we have to seriously ask how long of a time horizon we're still planning for. The comments I heard from Naruto seem to suggest he's inclined to wait until Akatsuki proper gathers at the rift site, at which point we somehow approach and assault them, sealing the rift behind anyone left inside and then yoinking it to an undisclosed location. This means the confrontation happens more or less on Akatsuki's timescale, which... we don't have a very good way to estimate. We could play dangerously by letting them sit at the rift for a while before striking, but we run the risk of them finding Pain unexpectedly early.

Do we think we still have 70 days left? This research is a net benefit if we do and is a net penalty if we don't. If we aggregate across our entire probability estimation, is the increased odds of victory across the probability chunk where we do have 70+ days left stronger than the decreased odds of victory across the probability chunk where we don't? What even is our overall chance of victory here? Do we need to make gambles like this or risk having no chance at all? Do we think we have it in the bag and shouldn't risk increasing any extant chances of failure?

(Also modulate all this by an appropriate amount if you figure the research will take more/less than 4 research cycles. If you think it's 3 cycles we only need like 53 days left, if you think it's 5 cycles we need a full 88 days.)

All in all, I'm genuinely unsure of where I stand here. I won't ask you to remove this from the plan, but I think we do need to have a more complete conversation about this and get our priors in order before we commit to gambles that only pay off under certain priors.
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I agree with this.
I was thinking that DoB would have pushed this towards faster resolution(and thus more likely to pay off).
Beyond that it was an effort to minimise losses. "If we have to research something non-critical, let's at least claw back as much of the lost time as we can"

Kyreneryk said:
Doing the Icarus Rune and Air Leadening Rune seems like a really bad idea when we should theoretically have the prep day results for Pure Force Dome and the two Beam Collimator variants (I'm assuming that they were the ones that got done, since they were the first ones on the list). If Pure Force Dome is achievable, it seems by far the most useful thing to work on, since there probably wouldn't be much/any complex multistep research required; we could just use it. Similarly, if either Beam Collimator works, that's the next step on the gamma-ray-laser research pathway.

Even if neither of those work, I think it would be better to go for a short plan this cycle and try to get all the prep days done so we can reassess what the best research candidates are. We're on a deadline, and there are runes on that list that could be really effective even in the basic form they're being prepped in if they turn out to work, no multistep research required. The Remote Explosive Rune in particular jumps out, for assaulting the rift site.
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100% this.

@Sir Stompy, why don't we start with 1 day of prep for (force dome/beam collimators/remote explosive), then research any of those that turn up "well within".
1 day of no research is better than 15 days spent researching the wrong stuff.

Failing that.... At least just make it a single cycle. Give us the ability to pivot to the mission critical research.
Locking in to 15+ days of side project because we don't have information it takes 1 day to find is... pretty bad.

I care quite a lot about this.
 
@eaglejarl, @Velorien, @Paperclipped

Proposed Mechanics for Army of One seal:

An enemy must succeed on attack rolls by more than (Sealmaster AB) shifts to hit a target using Army of One seal.

Something like the Byakugan/Sharingan would see through it, but it's decent against enemies without sensory bloodlines.

The alternative mechanics help reduce the Stat Number Inflation Problem.
 
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Inferno Vulpix said:
Do we think we still have 70 days left?
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Orochimaru finishes his rift moving runes. What happens next?
  • Naruto orders an assault on the rift site?
  • Naruto waits as long as more research time benefits Leaf more than Akatsuki?
    • Strike if enough Akatsuki members gather?
  • Stealth operation. Try to steal the rift unnoticed?
Inferno Vulpix said:
I support DoB.
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Liked DoB before it took a buff slot. Not worth losing SSA for a bonus we could get from another source.
 
Left-Hand Mutant said:
@Sir Stompy, why don't we start with 1 day of prep for (force dome/beam collimators/remote explosive), then research any of those that turn up "well within".
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We likely already did the prep days for PFD/collimators and just are waiting for results to get back. If any of them are ...well within... I'll edit them in when results get back.

As for the rest, the runes we're working on seem useful enough to me.

I don't feel like doing a 2-day update with just prep days, none of which turn out to be useful.
 
Paperclipped said:
Their threats had made them too brutal to be trusted in Hyōfajī's eyes.
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Well it's established now that the Dog summoner is not a cub killer.

Paperclipped said:
Hyōhakken considered Hyōkagyaku. Should he reveal that the new Dog Summoner was but a stripling, not the old man that had spun the song of lightning and death across a hundred Leopard pelts?
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Well Hazou and Hyōhakken spend some time on Kamehameha "together".

Sir Stompy said:
[X] Action Plan: That's Right Kids, More Rune Research
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[X] Action Plan: That's Right Kids, More Rune Research

Skywalker/Seal training for a specialist group of Dogs.

Also it's really funny.

Asuma: "I want to deploy you as a summoner"

Hazou: "Sir the Great Seal takes priority, sorry"

Cannai: "I need you to go west and find the Arachnids, also join a raid into Leopard"

Hazou: "Yes, Alpha, cat murder it is"
 
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