Remove ads

Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest

Reader mode
Presume @MMKII 's model of elimination loss is good, then there are approximately 100 halves total left in the game (80 ish round up).

This essentially corresponds to a geometric average 40% ish reduction in word-halves in play at each elimination (which corresponds with about 20% of eliminated persons halves exchanging hands before elimination)

60 in our pocket
3 in each of R1 and ISC R1 pocket (minimum)

This accounts for 75 of 100 halves.
Divvy 25 remaining over the top teams
Mist 1 - 6
Kurenai - 5
Mist 2 - 3
Waterfall - 3
Cloud - 2
ISC - 2 (+3 own)
Rock - 2
Hot Springs - 1
Mist 3 - 1

My other models should change to reflect the 18 in ISC+partners hands, but I think MMKII's assumptions are as good as my more pessimistic ones, so I think these values work out too.

The end result is

Goketsu - 60
Mist 1 - 6
Kurenai - 5
ISC - 5
Mist 2 - 3
Waterfall - 3
4xSmall Vilkage Partners - 3 (12)
Cloud - 2
Rock - 2
Hot Springs - 1
Mist 3 - 1

@eaglejarl
 
eaglejarl said:
So that's the picture. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to figure out the distribution of WH at this point.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Ah. Clarification do you mean:

1) The distribution of OUR word halves into whatever hands via the retroactive vote

2) You actually want me to model the number and distribution of the remaining word halves in play (presumably to save you from figuring a way of doing this)?
- - So basically just the ones we don't have or don't know where they could be.

If (1). Doh. Okay. Gotcha


If (2), here you are:

Adept_Woodwright said:
The end result is

Goketsu - 60
Mist 1 - 6
Kurenai - 5
ISC - 5
Mist 2 - 3
Waterfall - 3
4xSmall Vilkage Partners - 3 (12)
Cloud - 2
Rock - 2
Hot Springs - 1
Mist 3 - 1

@eaglejarl
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Blackened damn @Adept_Woodwright . Beat me to it.
 
Question: If we learned X amount of seals, shouldn't we gain sealing points for the sheer amount of varieties?

Also, I expect diminishing return as the amount of seals Hazō knows go up.

Something like this:

1 seals -> 1
3 seals -> 2
6 seals -> 3
10 seals -> 4
15 seals -> 5
21 seals -> 6

And so forth.
 
Last edited:
Kiba said:
Question: If we learned X amount of seals, shouldn't we gain sealing points for the sheer amount of varieties?

Also, I expect diminishing return as the amount of seals Hazō knows go up.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

If I see 1000 new physics equations out of context, my understanding of nature does not significantly improve.

Now imagine each physics equation was written with symbols unique to the writer.
 
Adept_Woodwright said:
If I see 1000 new physics equations out of context, my understanding of nature does not significantly improve.

Now imagine each physics equation was written with symbols unique to the writer.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

My assumption is "knowing a seal" is the same as being able to successfully infuse a seal.

Knowing what a seal for X look likes does not count toward mastery.
 
I don't think we'll be giving anyone their word halves back or giving more to our R1 Teammates?

Downfalls "Mercy" in Event 4 was negated by them skinning us alive afterwards.

Our teammates right now are getting catapulted into the finals by riding our slipstream. Seems reward enough.

Does everyone agree for the most part?
 
MMKII said:
I don't think we'll be giving anyone their word halves back or giving more to our R1 Teammates?

Downfalls "Mercy" in Event 4 was negated by them skinning us alive afterwards.

Our teammates right now are getting catapulted into the finals by riding our slipstream. Seems reward enough.

Does everyone agree for the most part?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I am all for leaving Team Kureani out of the tournament unless the NPC thinks it's a good idea otherwise. We don't owe Hinata anything.
 
Kiba said:
My assumption is "knowing a seal" is the same as being able to successfully infuse a seal.

Knowing what a seal for X look likes does not count toward mastery.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Learning new seals does not substitute for XP expenditure into sealing for the same reason that XP from punching *can* be used for sealing:

XP are an imperfect method of tracking new experiences.

We gain XP from our time doing/learning sealing at the same incremental rate as we do for all plans (dependent on quality). We then choose to allocate that XP into whatever form is most expedient.
 
Kiba said:
I am all for leaving Team Kureani out of the tournament unless the NPC thinks it's a good idea otherwise. We don't owe Hinata anything.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
No, I'm talking about any retroactive redistribution that eaglejarl is allowing us to vote in.

I don't think we need to tbh.
 
So, what are the most urgent seals to research next?

I am told:

  • Activate Relay Seal
  • Light Strobe
Is this correct?

Also, we should look into smoke bombs. It turned out that misterators just aren't useful for concealment.
 
Kiba said:
So, what are the most urgent seals to research next?

I am told:

  • Activate Relay Seal
  • Light Strobe
Is this correct?

Also, we should look into smoke bombs. It turned out that misterators just aren't useful for concealment.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Nope.

We're doing casino seals next or @MadScientist is going to have Jashin smite us for offending the godstat with shit offerings.
 
eaglejarl said:
It is reasonable to predict that any WH covered in (A) and (B) are now divided between ISC and their round 2 teammates in some unknown proportion.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I'm confused; does this mean we are distributing WHs to ISC and their teammates or is ISC distributing theirs only to their teammates? Because I don't see a reason why we would give our WHs to them.

In any case, I am in favor of giving Team Downfall back their personal word halves. Not out of charity but because there is a good chance they have their own WH stockpile* like @Adept_Woodwright pointed out so giving them three more - even if they count for more - is not going to change the point distribution all that much. On the other hand, it makes us look like gracious winners with little cost to our standing.

Our teammates can get their personal WHs back if we stored them for them in the summoning realm but that's it. We already boosted their score tremendously through the event points so I don't think we need to give them more.

*E: less of a stockpile with the the numbers but I don't think it will change the result
 
Last edited:
Citrus said:
@eaglejarl
For clarification, so each ninja we took out during Round 1 was holding exactly 1 word-half (their own?), and no others we also snagged? I believe the formula you described assumes that, unless my sleep deprived brain is misreading it

Edit: legit question, are advocates of giving kurenai word-halves back also wanting to give downfall word-halves back? Because that seems consistent with their argument about political reasons etc
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Edited to clarify.

Tua said:
I'm confused; does this mean we are distributing WHs to ISC and their teammates or is ISC distributing theirs only to their teammates? Because I don't see a reason why we would give our WHs to them.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
And here we see a good example of how difficult it is to communicate through text.

I am allowing you to vote to determine which of the following possible worlds Hazō was living in at the end of round one of the fifth event:

After defeating everyone in round 1, you lived in World #...
  1. Took all the WH (54 total) and kept them for Uplift;
  2. Took all the WH and gave some of them to your teammates on Red Team One;
  3. Took all the WH, except those of Team Downfall, and kept them for Uplift;
  4. Took all the WH, except those of Team Downfall, and gave some of them to your teammates on Red Team One;
  5. Took all the WH, except those of Team Kurenai, and kept them for Uplift;
  6. Took all the WH, except those of Team Kurenai, and gave some of them to your teammates on Red Team One;
  7. Took all the WH, except those of Team Kurenai and Team Downfall, and kept them for Uplift;
  8. Took all the WH, except those of Team Kurenai and Team Downfall, and gave some of them to your teammates on Red Team One;
In round 2, ISC took all the word halves of the people that they defeated. Therefore, anyone who still had WHs at the end of round one will only have them at the end of round two if they are:
  • Team Uplift;
  • ISC; or,
  • A teammate of ISC in round 2.
Kiba said:
Do we know the difficulty of researching casino seal?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
You do not.
 
Last edited:
Are casino seals actually valuable enough to use in the tournament? IIRC they're going to take up most of a month to do and their function (produce light/sound when chakra is moulded) isn't...useful? I'm trying to figure out how it could be used and am coming up with a blank.
 
faflec said:
Are casino seals actually valuable enough to use in the tournament? IIRC they're going to take up most of a month to do and their function (produce light/sound when chakra is moulded) isn't...useful? I'm trying to figure out how it could be used and am coming up with a blank.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Produce vibration when chakra is being molded instead.
 
eaglejarl said:
Start with 300 word halves. (WH)

Subtract 1 for the nitwit who gave up his word when the proctor asked. 299 WH remaining.

At the start of the swamp event there were 299 WH in play. During this event, some of them changed hands, meaning that some people had zero and some had multiple. There are still 299 WH in play.

During the third event (escort mission), a few changed hands but not many. At the end of the event there were still 299 WH in play.

After the escort mission, you went hunting for word halves. Uplift captured 3 WH. Team Gai captured 9. There were still 299 in play.

Then two teams were DQ'd from the exams. The proctors confiscated all the WH in their possession. This was:
  • Team Gai. They had 12 between them. (3 of their own, plus they took out 3 other teams during the hunting). 287 remain in play.
  • One random team. Let's say they had only their own 3. There are now 284 WH in play.
Then the eliminations happened. The lowest-scoring 150 people were eliminated. All word-halves in their possession were confiscated by the proctors. That leaves (284 - N) still in play.

Then the fourth event (house party) happened. Very few, if any, WH changed hands. None were removed from the pool.

Then another round of eliminations happened, cutting the number of contestants from 150 to 72. (78 people cut.) The proctors confiscated all WH possessed by the 78 people who were cut. This leaves (284 - N - M) still in play.

Then the fifth event (team assault) happened. The remaining 72 contestants went and beat the crap out of each other. These people were the top quartile of the exams, so assume they each had at least 1 WH (their own).

3 WH were turned in to get the contestant to the event on time. That leaves (284 - N - M - 3) still in play.

There were 72 word-halves on the field, with the rest (281 - N - M - 72) sitting in trusted hands back at the barracks.

In round 1, Team Uplift defeated everyone except for 18 people (their own team and ISC's team). This is a total of 54 people. Uplift confiscated all of those WH, giving them a total of (3 [their own] + 3 [stolen from another team after round 3] + 54 =) 60. There were 18 WH still in non-Uplift hands at the end of round 1.

In round 2, no WH changed hands or were removed from the pool.

So that's the picture. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to figure out the distribution of WH at this point.


EDIT: Should you so desire, you may vote to retroactively:

A) Not take Downfall's halves. They didn't take yours during the fourth event. (Presuming that it was them who took out Hazō.)

B) Share some with your Round 1 teammates.

It is reasonable to predict that any WH covered in (A) and (B) are now divided between ISC and their round 2 teammates in some unknown proportion.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Hmm.
  1. Assumption: three teams were so incompetent as to need to turn in their word-halves to get to E2, in addition to the brilliant young person who gave their word-half to the proctor.
  2. E2: 2/8 of bottom-half of Leaf genin were eliminated. Assumption: their eliminators stole their word-halves. Assumption: this percentage is true for all genin. 25% of word-halves of the bottom-half contestants are now in upper-half contestants' hands.
  3. SuperTeam Leaf, consisting of four teams from upper half of the scoring, captured 12 word-halves during the break. Assumption: this is much better than average for all upper-half teams. On average, only half of them stole one word-half. (less powerful, less successful, some targets already lost word-halves, some upper-half teams were busy with other things...).
  4. Assumption: E3 was thrice-harder to find than E2. 10% of contestants turned-in word-halves of bottom-half contestants (their own if they're bottom-half, or the stolen ones otherwise).
  5. E3: No word-halves change hands.
  6. Eliminations 1: 150 contestants are eliminated: all word-halves not in possession of upper-half teams are lost.
  7. Then Team Gai and that random team is eliminated; 15 more word-halves are lost.
  8. E4: 10% more of contestants turn-in word-halves to find the event. During E4, no word-halves change hands.
  9. Eliminations 2: Assumption: 30% of remaining word-halves are lost. (After Swamp, there was no heavy redistribution for the strongest teams, which means that most of word-halves were in "upper half", not "upper quartile". Top 25% were more successful than Top 50%, but not overwhelmingly so.)
  10. E5: Three word-halves are turned-in to find the event. Team Uplift takes everyone's personal word-halves save their R1 teammates' and ISC's Blue Team's.
Now to calculate it. BHW = "word-halves in possession of bottom-half contestants", UH = "word-halves in possession of upper-half contestants", BQW = "word-halves in possession of bottom-quartile contestants", UQW = "word-halves in possession of upper-quartile contestants".

1. 300-3x3-1 = 290. UHW = 150. BHW = 150-10 = 140.
2. UHW = 150 + 140/4 = 185. BHW = 105.
3. UHW = 185 + 150/6 = 210. BHW = 105 - 25 = 80.
4. UHW = 210 x 0.9 = 189. BHW = 80 x 0.9 = 72.
6. UHW = 189. BHW = 0.
7. UHW = 189 - 15 = 174.
8. UHW = 189 x 0.9 = ~170.
9. UHW = UQW + BQW. UQW = 189 x 0.7 = 132. BQW = 0.
10. UQW = 132 - 3 = 129.

Conclusions: By E5, only 129-72 = 57 word-halves of disqualified contestants were in play.
Team Uplift: 3 (personal) + 3 (stolen pre-E5) + 54 (stolen: E5) = 60 word-halves.
Everyone else: 54 stolen word-halves.
+ Team Uplift's R1 teammates & ISC's Blue Team: Personal word-halves (15 of them).

How many word-halves Katou conned out of people? How many word-halves Team Kurenai and Team Gensou stole? I think you're better positioned to answer these particular questions, which influences the distribution of the 54 stolen word-halves.

(@MMKII, @Adept_Woodwright, what do you think?)

Edit:
Assumption than only 30% of word-halves were lost during second Elimination was likely too optimistic. Distribution was likely more uniform, and E4 eliminated most of combat-focused teams, who took most of word-halves in E2. 45% seems to be a more accurate estimate.

Subsequently, that means only ~104 word-halves were present after E4, of which 32 belonged to disqualified people. After E5, Team Uplift has 60, ISC has 15 (3 personal + 12 from Team Uplift's R1 teammates), and the remaining 29 are split among the 66 other contestant.
 
Last edited:
faflec said:
Are casino seals actually valuable enough to use in the tournament? IIRC they're going to take up most of a month to do and their function (produce light/sound when chakra is moulded) isn't...useful? I'm trying to figure out how it could be used and am coming up with a blank.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

With a slight mod (produce vibration/temp change instead of light/sound) they can be used to boost Alertness.
 
Reader mode
You must login or register to reply here.
Remove ads
Back
Top