I'd be quite happy with 94% reliability on a science ship. Even if every single time meant 3 months out of action 1/4 * 0.06 = 0.015 so it would only miss about 1.5% of all events. Having higher stats will make much more of a difference than that.
Very early and if we pick up a tech team it may change but with income and current RP we have enough to activate all 14 teams
San Francisco Fleet Yards: Starship Construction Turn of the Century Starship Frames +8
40 Erdani A Shipyards: Escort- Early 24th Century Escort Science Package +8
Vulcan Science Academy: Sensors- Early 24th Century Long-Range Sensors +9
Starfleet Science Academy : Computing- Early 24th Century Computing Installations +6
Daystrom Institute: Shields- Early 24th Century Deflector Shields +8
Tellar Prime Academy of Mineral Science: Mineral Science- Turn of the Century Mineral Technology +6
Andorian Academy: Comms- Early 24th Century Message Security +6
Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems: Warp Tech- Early 24th Century Warp Cores +8
Starfleet Tactical Command - Games & Theory Division: Offensive Doctrine- Decisive Battle +7
Spock: 2300s Xenopsychology +10
Starfleet Medical Command: Personal- Basic Turn of the Century Equipment +6
Utopia Planitia Design Group: Renissance Techs +10
Lt-Cdr Kuznetsova's Tiger Team: Foreign Analysis- Cardassian Research +9
Admiral Lathriss: Fleet Design- Lone Ranger Way of the Giant +9
Skill ups:
Starfleet Medical Command (new skill 4)
Utopia Planitia Design Group (new skill 5)
I juggled the comp teams around since there is one tech left so it will get the inspiration bonus. This way we get to apply the bigger bonus from Daystrom to shields which should complete 1 or 2 techs and have the rest within one turn of completion. Otherwise mainly following up on last years research. Kept the Tiger team on Cardassian research to guarantee completion within two years (next year we can switch to Games & Theory Division to finish the research and move tiger to Way of the Elephant.
Edit: Was reminded Renissance needs to be researched once we chose it.
One roll per year, 3 months is a quarter of a year, 6% chance to miss a quarter of a year every year = 1.5% chance to be out of action at any given time.
"These People"? They're playing the same quest as you. Tone. Word Choice. The quest has been incredibly well behaved for 300+ pages. Can we please keep it that way?
I'd be quite happy with 94% reliability on a science ship. Even if every single time meant 3 months out of action 1/4 * 0.06 = 0.015 so it would only miss about 1.5% of all events. Having higher stats will make much more of a difference than that.
The bigger issue is the potential for the ship to just explode. We can't get close to the stats you want without hurting Warp Core and Hull reliability.
Biggest question though: I thought your Doc Brown idea was meant to be a joke
Very early and if we pick up a tech team it may change but with income and current RP we have enough to activate all 14 teams
San Francisco Fleet Yards: Starship Construction Turn of the Century Starship Frames +8
40 Erdani A Shipyards: Escort- Early 24th Century Escort Science Package +8
Vulcan Science Academy: Sensors- Early 24th Century Long-Range Sensors +9
Starfleet Science Academy : Computing- Early 24th Century Computing Installations +6
Daystrom Institute: Shields- Early 24th Century Deflector Shields +8
Tellar Prime Academy of Mineral Science: Mineral Science- Turn of the Century Mineral Technology +6
Andorian Academy: Comms- Early 24th Century Message Security +6
Yoyodyne Propulsion Systems: Warp Tech- Early 24th Century Warp Cores +8
Starfleet Tactical Command - Games & Theory Division: Offensive Doctrine- Decisive Battle +7
Spock: 2300s Xenopsychology +10
Starfleet Medical Command: Personal- Basic Turn of the Century Equipment +6
Utopia Planitia Design Group: Cruiser Design- Turn of Century Explorer +10
Lt-Cdr Kuznetsova's Tiger Team: Foreign Analysis- Cardassian Research +9
Admiral Lathriss: Fleet Design- Lone Ranger Way of the Giant +9
Skill ups:
Starfleet Medical Command (new skill 4)
Utopia Planitia Design Group (new skill 5)
I juggled the comp teams around since there is one tech left so it will get the inspiration bonus. This way we get to apply the bigger bonus from Daystrom to shields which should complete 1 or 2 techs and have the rest within one turn of completion. Otherwise mainly following up on last years research. Kept the Tiger team on Cardassian research to guarantee completion within two years (next year we can switch to Games & Theory Division to finish the research and move tiger to Way of the Elephant.
"These People"? They're playing the same quest as you. Tone. Word Choice. The quest has been incredibly well behaved for 300+ pages. Can we please keep it that way?
The bigger issue is the potential for the ship to just explode. We can't get close to the stats you want without hurting Warp Core and Hull reliability.
Biggest question though: I thought your Doc Brown idea was meant to be a joke
The events the improved Constellations may enable us to pass might well go a long way towards winning back some of that political will in the long run.
However, your point is well taken. The political cost for a Constellation refit is quite high, comparable to that of an entire new ship class. To me it seems unreasonable. Hopefully the cost will fall in the next few years, either due to Oneiros' action or due to omake bonuses.
No offense, but I seriously doubt that the refit would be worth the cost even when taking that into consideration. Yes, the Constellation might be able to participate in some events with its 4 D that a Centaur with its 3 D might miss, but by the same token the Constellation might also fail some events with its 2 P that a Centaur with its 3 P might pass, instead.
If the cost went as low as 5 or 10 PP i might consider it, but anything higher than that, and it's extremely unlikely that they'd break even, much less get ahead in terms of the cost paid.
Yes, why would that possibly make any difference? 1.5% of events missed across all ships in exchange for higher stats and better success chance across all ships. For defense fleets group reliability makes some sense to talk about because one missing ship means the whole group has a problem, but for science ships?
Except with science ships they are likely high on tech crew requirement and we may not have more than one a sector so having one out for potentially multiple turns means we no longer have a high science ship there to hit science events. And damage can take a ship out for multiple turns so I would rather not risk it.
Except with science ships they are likely high on tech crew requirement and we may not have more than one a sector so having one out for potentially multiple turns means we no longer have a high science ship there to hit science events. And damage can take a ship out for multiple turns so I would rather not risk it.
That's the opposite of the argument I was addressing (tryrar trying to argue that the ship should be considered as a part of a group, you that it should be considered solo), and it still doesn't make any difference. 1.5% (or whatever percentage you think it actually is out of commission, I think it would be less than 1.5% and was just granting such a high figure for sake of the argument) of events missed has to be compared to whatever percentage of events would have been missed/failed if the stats were lower, and I think that percentage is likely a lot higher.
Considering we're talking about fictional ships engaged in fictional activities in a fictional setting which we're just messing around with for fun, that would probably be logical.
Being an improvement over current alternatives is a bare minimum to enter consideration at all. I wouldn't mind using this ship for a decade, but it's definitely not something I'd still want to build more of in 2330, even assuming a refit adding +1 to 2-3 stats. I also doubt science would be one of those 2-3 stats.
It's a possibility. Worst case is +1 to presence, the ship's dump stat. That is unlikely. Given the previous refits have all involved +1 to multiple stats, I see no reason for the Kepler to be an exception.
Science 8, other stats 4 (D 5 would be nice, H 3 or P 3 is acceptable). Compromised reliability is quite acceptable as long as the warp core is reliable.
Slip of the pen there; I was referring to the as-built Centaurs that actually need a refit.
Yeah. The Intrepid is a 700-kiloton ship, the same general mass as a Centaur or a Miranda. Look at the stat line for ships like that, even the best we can do with a carefully optimized design... we are a LONG way from anything with a stat baseline of 4, regardless of whether we can or cannot buff a single stat to eight.
With 2350-60 era technology that should be possible (as illustrated by the Intrepid and Defiant classes). Today... no.
Very possibly, but not by much.
One roll per year, 3 months is a quarter of a year, 6% chance to miss a quarter of a year every year = 1.5% chance to be out of action at any given time.
It's 6% every quarter. Across a year, that's a 21% chance of a given ship having an event, or >13% chance of a bad event. Across a 5 ship fleet, there's a 50% chance of at least one ship getting taken out of commission. Across a 10 ship fleet, it goes up to 75%.
Work:1-(1-(1-.94^4)*.6)^5
I could preform a more detailed analysis, but I'm not willing to put in the effort. I'm tired of combinatorics right now: I'm taking a combinatorics course, and it's not your high school "What's the chance of a X" course.
Lieutenant-Commander Kuznetsova Meets the Old Lady
Starfleet Headquarters, Stardate 22709.6
Lieutenant Commander Alexandria Kuznetsova's foot taps on the floor in an uncontrolled nervous flutter. She tries to distract herself by looking out the office windows at the carefully landscaped grounds of Starfleet Command, but it doesn't seem to be working.
The jostling spreads up to her knee, the clicking of her heel hitting the floor over and over again, sounding across the waiting room.
Lieutenant Camille Alexander reaches out and gently taps his boss's knee, "Patience Alex."
Kuznetsova harrumphs, arms crossed, mouth turned down in a frump of unsurpassable annoyance, "Cam. Cam. Do you even -- Do you even know. Whose office. We're in? Waiting room we're in? Waiting place outside of an office? That we are in?"
Cam sighs, "Yes, Alex." He lifts up the courier's satchel deposited atop his lap. "I know exactly why we're here." He also knows the annoyance at the wait is a thin veneer over extreme nervousness. It's not everyday you get to meet the Old Lady of Starfleet and get to have her undivided attention.
"Good. That's good. You know why we're here," she uncrosses her arms, and glares out the window at a daisy. "That's good."
"There is nothing to worry about, Alex. We're on time, even a little early, remember?" She does remember, she remembers him ringing her communicator for almost a half hour straight this morning so to make sure that she was up on time. And she totally would have been without his help! Still, who knows what she could have forgotten to do at home this morning due to all the distractions?
"Did I leave the oven on?" Alexandria looks ready to stand up, shifting forward in her chair. The heel clicking has stopped though. For now at least.
"Alex. You don't have an oven." He keeps his hands folded carefully atop the satchel. "I don't think you've ever even seen a functional oven in person."
"Well, we could go take a look into it?" Alex taps one of her fingers on her thigh repeatedly, "I hear that Earth has many fine museums and historical facilities that you should visit during your vacations." She looks out the window again. "It's crazy, you live in a place, but never bother to go see the sights or the sites."
"You and Anne went to go see... the Pyramids at Gaza, the Stonehedge, and Chicken Itza last weekend."
Kuznetsova waves her hand airily, "There was this whole hypothesis that I was testing and… I don't want to talk about. And Anne is sworn to secrecy; don't even think about trying to pry it out of her!"
"You mean the layline thing?" Camille smirks. "You left your PADDs scattered across your desk again." he shakes his head sadly "I keep telling you Alex, clean them up unless you want Starfleet Security getting mad at you for leaving classified secrets out in the open."
The Lieutenant-Commander sputters, "I would, never- I don't. How dare you!"
Kuznetsova's newfound glare is interrupted by one of the Admiral's aides. "The Admiral will see you now."
Camille stands up smiling, his job of defusing Alexandria's nerves mostly completed, and pats the satchel as it comes to rest at his side, "Shall we Alex?"
"Right! Yes!" says his superior, her jaw set in a determined cast, eyes locked on the door ahead of her as she marches forward.
Admiral Kahurangi, the highest level officer in starfleet, the proverbial "Buck-stopper" (Though neither Alexandria nor Camille have no idea what deer hunting has to do with leadership), the Commander-in-Chief, sits behind a large wooden desk, a terminal set in front of her, and neatly stacked piles of PADDs and plastic arrayed around her. This is clearly a working office.
"Look at the size of that desk!" hisses Kuznetsova to her subordinate,in awe, eyes wide. "I am sooo jealous!"
The officers begin to stand at attention in front of the desk in front of the woman with the fancy insignia on her chest, before the admiral waves it off and gestures to the large comfortable seats in front of her. "I've found that my officers faint less if they have something to sit on," the dusky skinned woman says with a disarming charm, leaning across the desk to shake their hands, her insignia of rank glittering in the office lights, "Please, sit."
Kuznetsova feels almost at ease as she carefully lowers herself onto a comfy cushion, "Thank you Miss Admiral. Ma'am," she takes a deep breath, marshalling her thoughts, then launches into a rapid explanation of her presence, "Hello Admiral Kahurangi. I am Lieutenant-Commander Alexandria Kuznetsova, and this is Lieutenant Camille Alexander, and we represent the Starfleet Tactical Analysis Group, often informally known as 'Kuznetsova's Tiger Team,' and we are pleased to report the completion of the first phase of the "Lone Ranger" project." The team leader sucks in a deep breath of air and energetically gestures at Camille, hands a blur of frantic energy, as he calmly pulls a thick book out of the satchel and hands it to his boss. He passes across a PADD almost as an afterthought with it.
Kuznetsova takes another deep breath. "I would like to present to you the 'Starfleet Tactical Captain's Guide to Independent Operations' 2307 edition," she hands over the PADD, standing up, and almost bowing as she does so, "This work represents the sum total of my office's analysis of the operations of the first Five Year Missions overseen while under your tenure as well as other data from the Biophage crisis. It covers the operational art and science of command in all areas of a Starfleet Captain's purview: everything from Combat operations to science and diplomacy; with a major focus of independent operations."
Kuznetsova takes another deep breath and then lightly drops the thick tome onto the Admiral's desk, "This is a first edition of that material, arranged into a physical volume by an artisanal book...book-person here in San Francisco," she opens the front cover (A gorgeous embossed Starfleet Insignia with the words 'Starfleet Tactical Captain's Guide to Independent Operations' etched in gold and silver) and turns it around to face Kahurangi, "This edition is signed by the entire team, as well as Admiral Lathriss who provided proofreading and editing for the final stage of the project. Only six editions of this book exist: One for you ma'am, one for the Federation council, one for the Federation archives, and three for the Captains of the Five Year Missions that inspired the work. Only yours and the Captains are signed. They will be receiving their copies later."
Kuznetsova plops down with a sigh, Camille patting her gently on the back to reassure her on a job well done.
The Admiral is silent for a moment too. In a post-scarcity society like the Federation, novelty, rarity and time spent were among the most valued of attributes in an item, and this weighty tome combined all three.
Kahurangi wills her voice not to choke with emotion. "Thank you Lieutenant-Commander. I appreciate the gesture." This team didn't have to do this, the Admiral is gently awed by the esteem she seems to be held in by the officers in front of her.
"Thank you, Admiral, ma'am. The whole team just wanted you to have a token of esteem for the good job that you've been doing! We have a lot of respect for your hard work!"
The Admiral leans back in her chair, a number of emotions warring across her face, "Thank you," she finishes simply, touched. "We still have another fifteen minutes for this meeting. Would you two like to stay fo-" the Commander-in-Chief of the fleet is interrupted by a gentle trilling from her terminal, and she sighs. "That would be the Orion Ambassador. I am afraid I must cut this meeting short."
"I understand ma'am," says Alexandria nodding, and standing up.
"We appreciate you lending us even a little a bit of your time for our sentimental quest, Admiral." Camille says standing up with his boss.
The Admiral waves distractedly as they leave, already busy with the latest crisis, and sad about the missed opportunity to talk with her officers.
Kuznetsova makes a fist pump as the two step out of the office. "Nailed it! One down, three to go!"
It's very explicitly an annual roll. Given that failure chance is only about 1/4 as bad as you thought I assume that means you revise your opinion on how much unreliability is acceptable upwards?
It's very explicitly an annual roll. Given that failure chance is only about 1/4 as bad as you thought I assume that means you revise your opinion on how much unreliability is acceptable upwards?
It's very explicitly an annual roll. Given that failure chance is only about 1/4 as bad as you thought I assume that means you revise your opinion on how much unreliability is acceptable upwards?
Just to verify, is the odds of a catastrophic failure, one that leaves some or all of the crew dead, require hitting that 6% number twice in a row?
Admittedly, even the first type of failure in the middle of a 'save the planet/sister ship by SCIENCE!' mission, sounds scary, but I don't think those sort of missions would be the ones this type of ship would run into without backup.
Just to verify, is the odds of a catastrophic failure, one that leaves some or all of the crew dead, require hitting that 6% number twice in a row?
Admittedly, even the first type of failure in the middle of a 'save the planet/sister ship by SCIENCE!' mission, sounds scary, but I don't think those sort of missions would be the ones this type of ship would run into without backup.
Except we don't get to choose what missions they go on(it's rolled randomly to see who's in range to respond), so we need to be prepared for many different types of missions
Isn't 75% from your previous number crunch? Either way, could you throw up a new set of probabilities based on the 6% per year number, instead of your original 6% per quarter? I'd like to see the difference.
It doesn't change much in the sense that the rest of your analysis was completely meaningless anyway. There is no sensible reason to aggregate failure chance like that for science ships.
That would only make sense if a single failure anywhere was disastrous for the whole group. That might make sense for a combat fleet, but not for a collection of independently operating science ships. What you are doing is the equivalent of saying that enough people bathing makes the risk of bathing tubs unacceptable because it's virtually guaranteed someone slips and breaks their neck. An abuse of statistics to prove nonsense.
Our consensus on the SDB thread was 98% is borderline unacceptable. 98.5 is grudgingly acceptable, 99% is acceptable, and 99.5% is good.
I was active in that thread and recognize no such consensus. Even if there was a narrow group forming such a consensus there would have no right to impose it here.
Isn't 75% from your previous number crunch? Either way, could you throw up a new set of probabilities based on the 6% per year number, instead of your original 6% per quarter? I'd like to see the difference.
Events run a test against the ship/crew stats, so just triggering a bad one doesn't garuntee an issue. All but the worst events triggering on say Enterprise would just be another goody hut roll, because lol elite crew. And all ships get a chance to covert to goody hut.