Waves hand weakly. What constitutes "enough" event coverage is something that's under constant debate. I will say that Chen's bonus is providing a really nice safety cushion right now. Combined with Mutual Support coming on line in Q4, and I feel much more comfortable about thinner coverage than I did before.



My guess is the HBZ will require about D10 or D11. We could get there with 2 or 3 ships... frankly I'd feel perfectly comfortable if we had to pull an Excelsior, a Centaur-A, and Miranda-A from Nash's fleet right now much less after she gets to fight with them for a quarter or two. I just don't think it's a big deal.

You question in a subsequent post why so many people are going along with my call for a HBZ... I think frankly that it's because it's just not that much of an investment (20 pp and spreading our fleet 2 or 3 ships thinner), and if I'm wrong the consequences almost certainly won't be that big of a deal.
And if the Seyek are the ones that get membership this year, can you find enough ships for their sector, the HBZ and deal with any repairs and losses from the GBZ offensive?

And for event coverage, this past quarter we had:
Lightning, Zephy, Lexington, Torbriel, Winterwind, Reason, Valiant, Hood,, Thrishar, T'Mir, Hawking, Pathfinder, Yukikaze and Huascar all respond to events. If the GBZ offensive ties up ships for more than one quarter where do you think we can get the ships to respond to events and handle defense requirements?
 

I'm actually serious, the increase in shipyards across the board means it's probably a good idea to start looking at getting a second UP going. Orion space is a good a spot as any, as they're roughly central, meaning it's also good for critical infrastructure.
We are already planning on turning Amarkia into another center of industry for the federation IIRC.
 
We are already planning on turning Amarkia into another center of industry for the federation IIRC.
Why not both? We've got critical infra at Amarkia IIRC, which will be good for supplying one of the fronts. Celos can provide coverage for the other front.

I can, however, see the appeal of critical infrastructure at Apinae, to get our GBZ logistics need down.
 
Would a Horizon BZ have a P requirement instead of D requirement?

I think that we needed an HBZ a year and a half ago. Their ships are flying around in our space trying to undermine us. That they are doing it with polite words instead of phasers means nothing. They have four P-heavy Explorer-equivalents on a offensive. If we fail to catch any of them the results could be catastrophic. Imagine having another Sydraxia on our coreward border. Or two or three of them. A small expenditure of effort now will save us vast trouble later.

I'm vaguely sympathetic to the fears of not being able to cover its requirements, but... If we're stretched that tight, we're fucked anyway. And it's not like we have to have it covered the day before we announce it; ships have travel time and it'd be an impossible standard. I think that leaving it completely uncovered for a year or two would be an issue, but just taking a couple quarters to get it up to full strength should be expected.
 
And if the Seyek are the ones that get membership this year, can you find enough ships for their sector, the HBZ and deal with any repairs and losses from the GBZ offensive?]

Yes. The Seyek will come in with a Starbase, which helps a lot. We can likely cover them with one ship.

And for event coverage, this past quarter we had:
Lightning, Zephy, Lexington, Torbriel, Winterwind, Reason, Valiant, Hood,, Thrishar, T'Mir, Hawking, Pathfinder, Yukikaze and Huascar all respond to events. If the GBZ offensive ties up ships for more than one quarter where do you think we can get the ships to respond to events and handle defense requirements?

You talk about tying ships up for more than one quarter like it's something beyond our control. If we want the ships back, we order them back. If we think it's too risky to order them back, then we suck it up and take the political will loss for missing some Event responses. That's pretty independent of a HBZ; a HBZ just makes it a little worse. And yes, I could staff a HBZ in Q4 without pulling any ships back from GBZ reinforcements and without leaving any sector with no possibility of a ship response or failing to meet D requirements. It would be somewhat thin, but doable. (Remember, we get the Hood and the Stalwart out of the Caldonian peacekeeping operation and the Kumari out of refit in Q4.)

I'm actually serious, the increase in shipyards across the board means it's probably a good idea to start looking at getting a second UP going. Orion space is a good a spot as any, as they're roughly central, meaning it's also good for critical infrastructure.

Serious answer... I don't think you can specify that the next UP style shipyard will be in Orion sector when ordering initial preparations. @OneirosTheWriter has indicated there are a very specific set of requirements, and my understanding is that after we vote for preparations to begin, we will get a list of suitable candidate locations, one of which may or may not include a world in Orion space.
 
If we fail to catch any of them the results could be catastrophic.
That's an argument to make absolutely sure we don't miss or fail any events, i. e. make sure there are no undergarrisoned sectors in that area. Any missed or failed event means a chance for them to do something unopposed/helped along by a screw-up on our side. They haven't done anything outside of events so far, and even if their actions outside events are modeled in some way they won't have as big of an impact as events do. Both the Sydraxians and the Dawiar were turned away from us by failed events, not Cardassian actions in the background. The way the game works events are generated by sectors, so there being no HBZ yet means there are no events generated there, meaning fewer opportunities to fail to stop the Horizon. There not being an event with an opportunity to stop them does not mean they auto-succeed, that's not how this game works, it means the whole thing doesn't happen in the first place. You may argue that a sector existing magically causing things to happen is unrealistic, but that's how this game works. It's not any more unrealistic than events generating new species in areas close enough that we probably should have heard about them before.
Some relatively minor things can happen without events once a power has been introduced in the first place, but those aren't anywhere near as significant as events.
 
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Serious answer... I don't think you can specify that the next UP style shipyard will be in Orion sector when ordering initial preparations. @OneirosTheWriter has indicated there are a very specific set of requirements, and my understanding is that after we vote for preparations to begin, we will get a list of suitable candidate locations, one of which may or may not include a world in Orion space.
In that event we have critical infra building. Less hard reason: there's an Omake naming Alukk as a possible location!
 
That's an argument to make absolutely sure we don't miss or fail any events, i. e. make sure there are no undergarrisoned sectors in that area. Any missed or failed event means a chance for them to do something unopposed/helped along by a screw-up on our side. They haven't done anything outside of events so far, and even if their actions outside events are modeled in some way they won't have as big of an impact as events do. Both the Sydraxians and the Dawiar were turned away from us by failed events, not Cardassian actions in the background. The way the game works events are generated by sectors, so there being no HBZ yet means there are no events generated there, meaning fewer opportunities to fail to stop the Horizon. There not being an event with an opportunity to stop them does not mean they auto-succeed, that's not how this game works. You may argue that a sector existing magically causing things to happen is unrealistic, but that's how things work. Some relatively minor things can happen without events once a power has been introduced in the first place, but those are never anywhere near as significant as events.
The problem is that we have no depth. Iterative probability guarantees that we will fail an event eventually no matter how much we restrict the rate. What we need is not an impossible attempt to never fail an event, it's a structure that makes the eventual unavoidable event failure not an instant catastrophe. For example, a BZ might give us separate chances to catch an attempt: prediction with surveillance and monitoring of known assets, interception in space with sensors and patrols, and last ditch intervention with routine check-ins. Unless you can get all the way off the RNG, which we can't because some of these are opposed rolls against a peer opponent, compounding probabilities is far more effective than adding pluses.
 
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So Politics right now are really, really interesting. There are 51 Council seats, and it takes 26 seats for a majority.

Development - 14
Expansionist - 11
Pacifist - 11
Hawks - 9
Mercantile - 6

What makes this so interesting is that not only do you need three parties to form a winning voting block, but any three parties can form that winning voting block. Even the two smallest parties, Mercantile and Hawks, can form a 26 vote coalition if they pick off any of the other three parties. No wonder costs went up all around. To get anything done, Starfleet has to corral three different parties on board.
 
The problem is that we have no depth. Iterative probability guarantees that we will fail an event eventually no matter how much we restrict the rate. What we need is not an impossible attempt to never fail an event, it's a structure that makes the eventual unavoidable event failure not an instant catastrophe. For example, a BZ might give us separate chances to catch an attempt: prediction with surveillance and monitoring of known assets, interception in space with sensors and patrols, and last ditch intervention with routine check-ins. Unless you can get all the way off the RNG, which we can't because some of these are opposed rolls against a peer opponent, compounding probabilities is far more effective than adding pluses.
Depth doesn't actually help, you are still thinking about it the wrong way, as starting with an attempt on their side that is it's own thing, that we then subsequently have the chance to stop with an event. It's precisely the other way round: It starts with an event being rolled, and then afterwards the attempt of theirs is invented as event content. Oneiros essentially confirmed that there will still be Rigel sector events dealing with them, and those by definition are already happening in the Rigel sector, there won't be an additional chance to have intercepted that event beforehand. What the HBZ will do is perhaps slightly shift the event table, but no more than that, and it will also generate events on its own that mean extra chances to fail and can have similarly negative outcomes.

And it's quite plausible to hope to avoid missing or failing any Horizon related events for a couple of years while waiting for the accessions of the relevant affiliates. The events don't happen all that often so far (largely because home sectors have a lower event rate than border zones), and putting multiple high presence ships in the Rigel sector itself means being able to respond reliably and usually not failing on anything but snake-eyes. For example a blooded Excelsior in the same sector that didn't respond to another event first will auto-respond to any presence event, will succeed on a medium DC presence test with anything but snake-eyes and will succeed on the vast majority of hard presence tests as well. If there is a secondary responder like a Centaur even a hard presence test should succeed on anything but snake-eyes. Not rolling snake-eyes over say 10 events in 6 years is about a 75% chance, and a single failure doesn't necessarily mean total disaster, just a significant setback.
 
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Depth doesn't actually help, you are still thinking about it the wrong way, as starting with an attempt on their side that is it's own thing, that we then subsequently have the chance to stop with an event. It's precisely the other way round: It starts with an event being rolled, and then afterwards the attempt of theirs is invented as event content. Oneiros essentially confirmed that there will still be Rigel sector events dealing with them, and those by definition are already happening in the Rigel sector, there won't be an additional chance to have intercepted that event beforehand. What the HBZ will do is perhaps slightly shift the event table, but no more than that, and it will also generate events on its own that mean extra chances to fail and can have similarly negative outcomes.

And it's quite plausible to hope to avoid missing or failing any Horizon related events for a couple of years while waiting for the accessions of the relevant affiliates. The events don't happen all that often so far (largely because home sectors have a lower event rate than border zones), and putting multiple high presence ships in the Rigel sector itself means being able to respond reliably and usually not failing on anything but snake-eyes. For example a blooded Excelsior in the same sector that didn't respond to another event first will auto-respond to any presence event, will succeed on a medium DC presence test with anything but snake-eyes and will succeed on the vast majority of hard presence tests as well. If there is a secondary responder like a Centaur even a hard presence test should succeed on anything but snake-eyes. Not rolling snake-eyes over say 10 events in 6 years is about a 75% chance, and a single failure doesn't necessarily mean total disaster, just a significant setback.
A BZ would change an event failure from "they had three weeks to convince $planet that the Federation is the bad guys" to "we lost track of Horizon Explorer #3" or "They managed to land a diplo team, now engaging them in debate". Having regular monitoring of their ships all by itself necessarily implies an extra set of checks before a significant negative outcome.
 
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Also, the Aerocommandos finally join the CFP again. At this point we only need a team for personal equipment from the Amarki Gendarme and they can have a party in Starfleet R&D about putting the band back together.
 
A BZ would change an event failure from "they had three weeks to convince $planet that the Federation is the bad guys" to "we lost track of Horizon Explorer #3" or "They managed to land a diplo team, now engaging them in debate".
For events rolled for the border zone itself possibly, we sometimes have event chains, but for events rolled for the sectors behind it that can't possibly work that way, those events would by necessity already happen behind the border zone. Events happen where they are rolled, not where they would make the most sense. This is a definitely known fact.
 
For events rolled for the border zone itself possibly, we sometimes have event chains, but for events rolled for the sectors behind it that can't possibly work that way, those events would by necessity already happen behind the border zone. Events happen where they are rolled, not where they would make the most sense. This is a definitely known fact.
Oh really?

Are you so sure you want to make absolute pronouncements about what the QM can and can't do with his own event tables?
 
Oh really?

Are you so sure you want to make absolute pronouncements about what the QM can and can't do with his own event tables?
We have seen examples of events that would have made more sense to have happen somewhere else, for example the the missed chance for a direct contact with the Obar that somehow happened in the Amarki sector rather than the SBZ or the Rigel sector. If any event should be moved to happening elsewhere it's that one.
 
We don't even know how the event tables work exactly.

He could have a section labelled "Horizon doing stuff, P roll vs. H tender" for all we know.

I would be leery about making absolute pronouncements about the workings of a system that we've only really observed from the outside.
 
ON GABRIEL TACTICS

I'm not sure what the point was in letting both sides build up. It sounds like we lost the element of surprise.
If we launch a retaliatory raid for their raid, we almost certainly wouldn't get to retain the element of surprise. The enemy knows we're pissed, and can reasonably predict that we're coming. The only real surprise we can hit them with is "holy crap they sent HOW many ships?"

If the Jaldun surrendered, we would capture it and imprison its crew. Which isn't much different from what the Konen did, and may in fact not be different at all when you consider that sometimes ships get destroyed faster than they can surrender.
The only real difference is that the Konen and Cardassians will torture the captured Starfleet crew.

This is not a small difference, and should not be overlooked even for a moment.

You misunderstand, i never claimed all our ships have been messed with, just that we don't know how the demo charges got into the republic. and never said that all our ships would be victim to the same fate that befell Republic, just that they struck us and if they do have some operators within our forces, they might get intel that we are coming and from where we stripped ships for the retaliatory strike.

They can use that to either meet the force on their terms or, even more interesting, use that time to raid the hell of our Gabriel Hinterlands. Even if we do extract a pound of flesh out of that counterstrike, what do you think the reaction back in the federation would be?

I don't know where you got the idea that the Cardies would sneak in further demo charges into our fleet (assuming that is what they did), specially in the aftermath of the Republic. At no time I stated that nor did I thought it likely.

I am far more worried with the bigger picture here and wanted to wait for more info on the nature of the hit on the Republic to know if we had any holes in our intel aparatus, if we had infiltrators (not saboteurs, by and large, but observers and the like) before going half cocked onto a retaliatory strike that is, basically, what the cardies would expect of anyone.

it is an old trick, anger your enemy, force him to attack you and use that time to hit him elsewhere...
Suffice to say that all Cardassian intelligence operations in our space will suddenly get a lot more difficult with Federation forces placed on unusually high alert due to the known success of a Cardassian sabotage attempt. It's certainly possible that the Cardassians have succeeded in penetrating our security defenses with a lot of infiltrators, but if so, then if those infiltrators "go active" in an attempt to further undermine our response, they are going to reveal themselves in droves. It's not a one-sided issue.

Moreover, going on a hunt for the spies for several months before attacking lets the enemy make purely military preparations that will work whether the enemy has any spies for us to find or not...

Clearly that idea didn't work, the Konen are isolating and hitting SINGLE SHIPS!

We need a single ship that they can't break, that and I'd be willing to bet that Sabotage wasn't a C/L/H Test....
Hawke, you do realize that we can't somehow guarantee that the Cardassians automatically attack our biggest, strongest ship, right? They'll just go on trying to isolate our frigates and cruisers, and our best counter is to have enough ships to reliably double up or have reinforcements in place to answer a distress call. If we just send a super-mega flagship, they'll simply ignore it, just like they didn't target one of our Excelsiors in the last raid.

I'll drop this if you give me one thing:

A Garentee that the E-A and eventuall E-B/Enlightenment(?) can compete favorably against enemy battleships, especially ones that are meant to compete favorably against the Ambassador.
Doesn't that depend heavily on what you mean by "compete favorably?" In the past, you've tended to regard all but our most decisive victories as a form of defeat, damaged ships as a disaster, and lost ships as a sign of utter failures and urgent need for action.

Do you expect the heavy cruisers being discussed to "compete favorably" in the sense of "win a one-on-cage match?" Do you expect them to "compete favorably" in the sense of an equal cost of heavy cruisers making equal or greater contributions to our collective war effort than single jumbo-explorers would? Or what?



ON GABRIEL POLITICS

Ultimately, if it's a council norm, N'Girs hands are tied. Politicians will value good governance and fair play in elections that involve billions over 400 prisoners. If you want to critique that thinking fine, but to pin it all on N'Gir doing it for selfish political reasons is irksomly inaccurate.
Iron Wolf, this is getting kind of hard for me to swallow.

Firstly, it's pinning a great deal on details of wording. "Councill norm." Is it a "council norm" to discipline Starfleet admirals for carrying out military operations in response to attacks or emergencies that take place close to an election cycle? As in, is there precedent for this sort of thing, has it happened before?

Because if so, I get the feeling that it is also a "Federation enemies' norm" to carefully time military moves to coincide with our election cycle. Did we see the Klingons or Romulans getting up to nasty shit in 2294Q1? Perhaps not; that was right after Khitomer and the fall of the Cartwright Conspiracy. How about '88, '82, '76, '70, and '64?

They're not stupid; if they know that our political leadership will purge the upper echelons of Starfleet's command structure in retaliation for any risky military actions taken during a certain four to eight week window, they are quite capable of exploiting that weakness.

...

Secondly, "council norm" or not, N'Gir doesn't have to fire Sulu or otherwise punish Starfleet for launching counter-raids in the Gabriel Expanse. There's nothing in the Federation Charter that says Starfleet isn't allowed to fight in a declared free-fire zone during election season, especially when Federation shipping has already been attacked. Firing Sulu is not a required action on her part.

So painting it as though her hands are somehow tied in the matter is taking things a step too far. If there is a high probability of her taking such a step, it is because she thinks this is an appropriate course of action. In which case her thinking on the matter is subject to critique; she cannot wash her hands of responsibility when hers is the desk with the "the buck stops here" stickers plastered on it.

If N'Gir were a helpless puppet of Council tradition, she'd be a very different woman.

Like imagine this from NGirs perspective as Federation Quest. She probably would get an option like "[ ]launch a major offensive in retaliation (40% chance major political stonewalling from other council factions, 40% minor retaliatory action from other parties, 20% they do nothing). And, unlike what people assume, if her prepolling is showing her party losing she's less likely to do anything to piss off new councillors who don't belong to her faction.
You made those percentages up. Furthermore, I must point out that this would be an excellent opportunity for her to engage in coalition-building with the Hawks or the (traditionally opposed) Expansionists, by taking a firm line in the Gabriel Expanse. It would frustrate the Pacifists, specifically, I suppose... but the very participation of Starfleet in the Gabriel Expanse would tend to do that anyway.
 
We have seen examples of events that would have made more sense to have happen somewhere else, for example the the missed chance for a direct contact with the Obar that somehow happened in the Amarki sector rather than the SBZ or the Rigel sector. If any event should be moved to happening elsewhere it's that one.
That is screwy, I'll give you that.

But your argument is STILL fundamentally claiming that it's a trap option on the basis of your alleged knowledge of how the QM will rejigger event tables and new behind-the-scenes mechanics. Knowledge you cannot possible have.

In other words, your argument is actually "because I said so" dressed up with a ton of utterly baseless speculah.
 
If you think that the math interacts with border zones in a way that makes declaring them strictly a negative outcome, take it up with @OneirosTheWriter as a critical failure in his game mechanics. Your analysis, if correct, makes the entire concept of a border zone a trap, and trap options are a great way to cripple a game.
 
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ON GABRIEL POLITICS

Iron Wolf, this is getting kind of hard for me to swallow.

Firstly, it's pinning a great deal on details of wording. "Councill norm." Is it a "council norm" to discipline Starfleet admirals for carrying out military operations in response to attacks or emergencies that take place close to an election cycle? As in, is there precedent for this sort of thing, has it happened before?

Because if so, I get the feeling that it is also a "Federation enemies' norm" to carefully time military moves to coincide with our election cycle. Did we see the Klingons or Romulans getting up to nasty shit in 2294Q1? Perhaps not; that was right after Khitomer and the fall of the Cartwright Conspiracy. How about '88, '82, '76, '70, and '64?

They're not stupid; if they know that our political leadership will purge the upper echelons of Starfleet's command structure in retaliation for any risky military actions taken during a certain four to eight week window, they are quite capable of exploiting that weakness.
It's launching unexpected major operations/initiatives of any kind literally days before that is the issue. This isn't me making it up, that's flat-up Word of God, although I'm using 'norm' to describe it because that's what it is.

Nash was not interested in waiting to clear out the Enio subsector. It also wouldn't be appropriate, on a civil level, for the Development party to suddenly implement sweeping government initiatives or similar. It's not illegal, but it's frowned upon, and the sort of retaliatory cycle it can bring on is best avoided.

Like, from the sounds of it, Nash was unwilling to wait literal days to launch an offensive, and on re-read doesn't even mention prisoners as a motivation to launch the attack -- it's all about clearing out Enio in retaliation. There's no convincing reason to go right at that exact moment, and indeed it looks like it's going to be better to wait. Maybe her Politics skill coming into play?

It's also a matter of degree. You're treating my argument as if it's election season, do not pass go at all. If the Cardassians launched a full-scale assault into the GBZ, I doubt there'd have been the threat of firing for a coutneroffensive. But ultimately it's one ship. That's shitty for Starfleet, but that's how it goes. I have no doubt that the Klingons and the Romulans frequently did stuff during election cycles. Was it at a major scale? Probably not (although what year did Balance of Terror take place?)

Secondly, "council norm" or not, N'Gir doesn't have to fire Sulu or otherwise punish Starfleet for launching counter-raids in the Gabriel Expanse. There's nothing in the Federation Charter that says Starfleet isn't allowed to fight in a declared free-fire zone during election season, especially when Federation shipping has already been attacked. Firing Sulu is not a required action on her part.
I'd note the probabilities weren't 100% either. She didn't have to, and it wasn't guaranteed she was going to fire us.

So painting it as though her hands are somehow tied in the matter is taking things a step too far. If there is a high probability of her taking such a step, it is because she thinks this is an appropriate course of action. In which case her thinking on the matter is subject to critique; she cannot wash her hands of responsibility when hers is the desk with the "the buck stops here" stickers plastered on it.

If N'Gir were a helpless puppet of Council tradition, she'd be a very different woman.

You made those percentages up. Furthermore, I must point out that this would be an excellent opportunity for her to engage in coalition-building with the Hawks or the (traditionally opposed) Expansionists, by taking a firm line in the Gabriel Expanse. It would frustrate the Pacifists, specifically, I suppose... but the very participation of Starfleet in the Gabriel Expanse would tend to do that anyway.
You assume the Expansionists wouldn't be mad as well at N'Gir for 'meddling' unexpectedly in their elections. It's cold-hearted but that's politics. She's already alienated the pacifists, a huge bloc, with the Licori war, she can't afford to cheese off any other faction. You say coalition-building, but if she's being that careful it's more that she could lose their support as well by playing 'dirty tricks' in the eyes of the other Councilors. Remember, they're going to look at one ship being lost and wonder why we're gathering up a big fleet to smash right now instead of waiting.

Her hands -- and the hands of most other Presidents -- would be effectively tied in that case. it's possible she'd feel compelled to fire us due to outside political pressure, which might explain why it's "only" 40% to fire us for actively lying to her. Politicians have unwritten rules they like to play by. They usually have good reasons, involving stability of the process, to do so. It's tough luck but it's one of those drawbacks to being a mostly-pacifist democracy engaged in a weird undeclared war that you probably want to keep out of sight anyways.
 
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Hey @OneirosTheWriter I see you're peeking in. Please answer this if you can. I am trying to look at what a revised fleet distribution should be given a possible HBZ and Seyek Sector, etc.

What quarter should we expect the ships sent to Gabriel as reinforcements to be back in their sectors?

What quarter should we have to garrison a new member's sector?

What quarter would we have to garrison a Horizon Border Zone?


Thanks.
 
That is screwy, I'll give you that.

But your argument is STILL fundamentally claiming that it's a trap option on the basis of your alleged knowledge of how the QM will rejigger event tables and new behind-the-scenes mechanics. Knowledge you cannot possible have.

In other words, your argument is actually "because I said so" dressed up with a ton of utterly baseless speculah.
I explained before that the HBZ being a bad idea does not mean trap option any more than the push on the Bajorans ending up being a bad idea was a trap option. If long established mechanics continuing to be available in cases where they happen to be a bad idea is a "trap option" we already know that this QM uses trap options, if not there is no basis for calling it one.

My argument didn't rely on any knowledge of the event tables beyond extra sectors causing extra event rolls (long known and reasonably explicitly stated by Oneiros), border zones having more events rolled for them than home sectors (very explicitly stated by Oneiros and also reinforced by our doctrine), Horizon events being on the table for the HBZ (seems very obvious, does anyone actually dispute this?) and Horizon events continuing to be on the tables for sectors behind the HBZ ("As a whole, they can still arrive in Federation space as the Feds are not in a state of conflict"). Knowledge of the mechanics is likewise based on QM statements and direct observations, not supposition.

It seems pretty unreasonable to claim that I have no basis for my arguments just after I provided a basis for the one you contested?
 
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