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ENTERPRISE!

SAM SAM SAM SAM SAM SAMSAMSAM

In my eyes Sam just earned a second 5YM if she wants it.

Do you know what's going to happen to the Cardassians that Enterprise picked up?

They're going to wipe their minds with SCIENCE like they would for some pre warp race. Then they'll dump them out the doors in that shuttle with the shuttle programmed with "AND THEN A DISASTER HAPPENED!!!111ONE!!1"

This is a solved problem. This is the thing that happens between the climax and when the credits run. The bit where the Captain talks to the Captain's log; That's where it happens.
 
Hmmm... so what, really, would the effects of a 'treaty' at this point? The Cardassians are wanting to, in return for not recognizing Celos' independence, the Federation to not diplomatically interact with "their" species (at least their official clients, but as many others as they can manage), probably give up interacting with the assorted non-affiliated species (hah!) and conceded to Cardassian territorial claims (as broad as they can push it). Really, they're probably not likely to care about honoring any such treaty on their end, only in weakening the Federation in some way. The Federation, in turn, probably is in favor of some kind of settlement along the lines of "don't do naughty things to unaffiliated species or our own affiliates".

Realistically, the Federation can fairly easily just shrug and say "the 'government' on Celos is a criminal-backed coup, recognize it if you wish, but enter the space of our affiliates and we'll beat you bloody" (in more diplomatic terms, of course) without actually taking much damage. Really, the Cardassian claim of "innocent Celos, victim of Federation aggression" is going to be bought by... well, nobody. Maybe domestically and probably with their client species. Current species they're trying to sway are probably going to be just a bit skeptical - after all, giant death toll in a massive bombing, slaving criminal syndicate, Orion government while not incredibly popular domestically still clearly more 'legit', etc etc. The Cardassians are gambling on the Federation being willing to give some ground for less nuisance to deal with... but, in my view, it's kind of a bluff (or at least somewhat hollow) for the reasons others have already gone over.

So actually, what would be the effects of some kind of negotiated border and area of influence, ala the Federation-Klingon or Federation-Romulan ones? Well, first there's territorial limits - but in practice, the Federation already acknowledges those, staying (clandestine stuff aside) out of clear Cardassian territory, while the Cardassians... are a bit more casual about it. There's plenty of other directions to move into (space being 3D and all). Things like the wormhole may not be the same in this game as in Star Trek canon, so there's no guarantee of certain strategic resources existing anyway.

Then there's "hands off our affiliates" - again, it's not like the Federation can actually make affiliates out of current Cardassian clients anyway in practice - due to the Cardassians reacting violently and the client race's puppet government likewise not accepting overtures. Again, the Cardassians are a little more casual about trying to peel away affiliates... albeit with so far absolutely no success. Realistically, what would be the course of events that would allow the Federation to peel away a Cardassian client species anyway? It's unlikely that a body that's reasonably representative will actually arise under a puppet government to beg for aid.

That leaves the currently unaffiliated species. And I'm fairly sure the Federation can easily fend off "don't diplomatize species' X, Y and Z (that aren't Cardassian clients)"-type demands. If the Federation hasn't discovered a species and it falls under Cardassian rule... it's hardly likely that there'll be a body politic able to diplomatically interact with the Federation by the time that changes anyway - and the Federation doesn't do liberation without request (a species' right to self-determinate and all that being somewhat implied). Granted, the current Federation government isn't interested in more full members, but affiliate status and agreements to protect against certain kinds of (Cardassian) aggression are quite possible regardless.

None of these kinds of things seem all that bad from a Federation standpoint. The Cardassians are more likely to be naughty (and get caught at it) anyway, while the Federation is unlikely to really be interested in being naughty. If the Federation is concerned about the Cardassians embarking on a vicious repression of a client species, it's easy enough to slip in some kind of conscience clause or perhaps lend a hand to an "underground" to evacuate victims.

What is actually lost? Well, if a 'puppet' government suddenly is overthrown or un-puppeted and immediately asks for Federation assistance, that's a bit awkward for the Federation. But realistically how often will that happen in such a circumstance where the Federation *could* intervene fully anyway? It's not like Cardassian clients are off in their own little pockets isolated from the rest of Cardassian space, and I don't think the Federation has ever intervened to 'rescue' a species from a ruling one by force regardless.

EDIT: Of course, the above is probably kind of moot anyway, as there's not really much the Cardassians can offer that they're likely to hold to anyway. The whole "we'll recognize Celos as independent unless" is liable to be just ignored without actual force behind it (which the Federation is likely to respond to, and the Cardassians are probably knowing this).
 
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EDIT: Of course, the above is probably kind of moot anyway, as there's not really much the Cardassians can offer that they're likely to hold to anyway. The whole "we'll recognize Celos as independent unless" is liable to be just ignored without actual force behind it (which the Federation is likely to respond to, and the Cardassians are probably knowing this).

It's funny to say this, but I think you may actually be a little too hard on the Cardassians here.

I don't think treaties are meaningless to them. They have a very "Cardassia First" attitude, but they aren't without any principles. If they make a deal, they'll keep it, because keeping deals is what you do and part of their self-image.
 
Hmmm... so what, really, would the effects of a 'treaty' at this point? The Cardassians are wanting to, in return for not recognizing Celos' independence, the Federation to not diplomatically interact with "their" species (at least their official clients, but as many others as they can manage), probably give up interacting with the assorted non-affiliated species (hah!) and conceded to Cardassian territorial claims (as broad as they can push it). Really, they're probably not likely to care about honoring any such treaty on their end, only in weakening the Federation in some way. The Federation, in turn, probably is in favor of some kind of settlement along the lines of "don't do naughty things to unaffiliated species or our own affiliates".

Realistically, the Federation can fairly easily just shrug and say "the 'government' on Celos is a criminal-backed coup, recognize it if you wish, but enter the space of our affiliates and we'll beat you bloody" (in more diplomatic terms, of course) without actually taking much damage. Really, the Cardassian claim of "innocent Celos, victim of Federation aggression" is going to be bought by... well, nobody. Maybe domestically and probably with their client species. Current species they're trying to sway are probably going to be just a bit skeptical - after all, giant death toll in a massive bombing, slaving criminal syndicate, Orion government while not incredibly popular domestically still clearly more 'legit', etc etc. The Cardassians are gambling on the Federation being willing to give some ground for less nuisance to deal with... but, in my view, it's kind of a bluff (or at least somewhat hollow) for the reasons others have already gone over.

So actually, what would be the effects of some kind of negotiated border and area of influence, ala the Federation-Klingon or Federation-Romulan ones? Well, first there's territorial limits - but in practice, the Federation already acknowledges those, staying (clandestine stuff aside) out of clear Cardassian territory, while the Cardassians... are a bit more casual about it. There's plenty of other directions to move into (space being 3D and all). Things like the wormhole may not be the same in this game as in Star Trek canon, so there's no guarantee of certain strategic resources existing anyway.

Then there's "hands off our affiliates" - again, it's not like the Federation can actually make affiliates out of current Cardassian clients anyway in practice - due to the Cardassians reacting violently and the client race's puppet government likewise not accepting overtures.
The catch there is that the Cardassians aren't in a good position to use violence to exert control over some of their own affiliates. Bajor was an easy mark for them because it's close the Cardassian centers of power, and extremely far from our centers of power. Their other affiliates are more distant- which is precisely why the Cardassians sought them out in the first place, to present threats to us from different angles and outflank us. The problem is that when you make an ally who is closer to your enemy's heartland than he is to you... you don't really have much control over him.

[EDIT: especially not in a setting where transportation takes so much time]

Again, the Cardassians are a little more casual about trying to peel away affiliates... albeit with so far absolutely no success. Realistically, what would be the course of events that would allow the Federation to peel away a Cardassian client species anyway? It's unlikely that a body that's reasonably representative will actually arise under a puppet government to beg for aid.
We know the Dawiar, Yrillians, and Sydraxians have governments which are not entirely puppets of Cardassia. The Dawiar in particular may well be on the brink of declaring neutrality, especially if they can get guarantees of being left alone to develop a sizeable share of space for themselves. They have to have realized by now that ongoing affiliation with Cardassia is unlikely to lead to significant benefits for them, among other things because it makes them targets for forces they cannot withstand in the event of war.

So I think a big chunk of the basis behind your strategic calculations is off, here. The Cardassians* are leading with extreme demands in an attempt to secure our submission.* The three major demands they're making are:

1) Recognition of the status of Bajor,
2) Our ceding claims to the Gabriel Expanse, and
3) Our ceasing to engage in diplomatic approaches to "their" affiliates.

All of these are things the Cardassians strongly desire, but lack the strength to bring about by themselves. In all three cases, we would be wise NOT to accede to their wishes, unless they can offer us a benefit that is correspondingly significant. And quite frankly, the only really valuable card they've offered to play is "we will rein in the Sydraxians."

The problem is that if we agree to their demand (3), they will retain the ability to use the Sydraxians as an attack dog at any future time they choose. Especially if we also accede to (2) and permit them to secure their supply lines to and from Sydraxian space.
___________________________

*(we know from Federation xenopsych teams, including Oneiros posts and canon TNG analysis)
 
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Hmmm... so what, really, would the effects of a 'treaty' at this point? The Cardassians are wanting to, in return for not recognizing Celos' independence, the Federation to not diplomatically interact with "their" species (at least their official clients, but as many others as they can manage), probably give up interacting with the assorted non-affiliated species (hah!) and conceded to Cardassian territorial claims (as broad as they can push it). Really, they're probably not likely to care about honoring any such treaty on their end, only in weakening the Federation in some way. The Federation, in turn, probably is in favor of some kind of settlement along the lines of "don't do naughty things to unaffiliated species or our own affiliates".

Realistically, the Federation can fairly easily just shrug and say "the 'government' on Celos is a criminal-backed coup, recognize it if you wish, but enter the space of our affiliates and we'll beat you bloody" (in more diplomatic terms, of course) without actually taking much damage. Really, the Cardassian claim of "innocent Celos, victim of Federation aggression" is going to be bought by... well, nobody. Maybe domestically and probably with their client species. Current species they're trying to sway are probably going to be just a bit skeptical - after all, giant death toll in a massive bombing, slaving criminal syndicate, Orion government while not incredibly popular domestically still clearly more 'legit', etc etc. The Cardassians are gambling on the Federation being willing to give some ground for less nuisance to deal with... but, in my view, it's kind of a bluff (or at least somewhat hollow) for the reasons others have already gone over.

So actually, what would be the effects of some kind of negotiated border and area of influence, ala the Federation-Klingon or Federation-Romulan ones? Well, first there's territorial limits - but in practice, the Federation already acknowledges those, staying (clandestine stuff aside) out of clear Cardassian territory, while the Cardassians... are a bit more casual about it. There's plenty of other directions to move into (space being 3D and all). Things like the wormhole may not be the same in this game as in Star Trek canon, so there's no guarantee of certain strategic resources existing anyway.

Then there's "hands off our affiliates" - again, it's not like the Federation can actually make affiliates out of current Cardassian clients anyway in practice - due to the Cardassians reacting violently and the client race's puppet government likewise not accepting overtures. Again, the Cardassians are a little more casual about trying to peel away affiliates... albeit with so far absolutely no success. Realistically, what would be the course of events that would allow the Federation to peel away a Cardassian client species anyway? It's unlikely that a body that's reasonably representative will actually arise under a puppet government to beg for aid.

That leaves the currently unaffiliated species. And I'm fairly sure the Federation can easily fend off "don't diplomatize species' X, Y and Z (that aren't Cardassian clients)"-type demands. If the Federation hasn't discovered a species and it falls under Cardassian rule... it's hardly likely that there'll be a body politic able to diplomatically interact with the Federation by the time that changes anyway - and the Federation doesn't do liberation without request (a species' right to self-determinate and all that being somewhat implied). Granted, the current Federation government isn't interested in more full members, but affiliate status and agreements to protect against certain kinds of (Cardassian) aggression are quite possible regardless.

None of these kinds of things seem all that bad from a Federation standpoint. The Cardassians are more likely to be naughty (and get caught at it) anyway, while the Federation is unlikely to really be interested in being naughty. If the Federation is concerned about the Cardassians embarking on a vicious repression of a client species, it's easy enough to slip in some kind of conscience clause or perhaps lend a hand to an "underground" to evacuate victims.

What is actually lost? Well, if a 'puppet' government suddenly is overthrown or un-puppeted and immediately asks for Federation assistance, that's a bit awkward for the Federation. But realistically how often will that happen in such a circumstance where the Federation *could* intervene fully anyway? It's not like Cardassian clients are off in their own little pockets isolated from the rest of Cardassian space, and I don't think the Federation has ever intervened to 'rescue' a species from a ruling one by force regardless.

EDIT: Of course, the above is probably kind of moot anyway, as there's not really much the Cardassians can offer that they're likely to hold to anyway. The whole "we'll recognize Celos as independent unless" is liable to be just ignored without actual force behind it (which the Federation is likely to respond to, and the Cardassians are probably knowing this).
I don't think the Cardassians are actually primarily interested in the results of any treaty. What we're seeing here is a probing action. They've identified a weakness in the Federation, and they're measuring how far pressing such a weakness gets them. Anything the Federation does end up conceding is just a happy bonus.
 
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardassians DO want a treaty framework. Back in 2307 or whenever, they didn't, but that was back when the boundaries hadn't been drawn. Now, pretty much every species between us and them, and quite a few off to the sides of our border, have been firmly locked into one camp or the other. There are very few species and areas left unsecured, and the Cardassians are not getting the better of the 'competitive expansion' game. The stability of a treaty framework might be welcome to them.

The problem is, they're not yet ready to stop trying to assert dominance, which makes it very difficult if not impossible for them to negotiate a treaty that the Federation would be wise to accept.
 
I know pp will be very, very limited and we may not be able to afford it, but I think my third priority after the Ambassador and better anti-Syndicate legislation might be:

Another diplomatic push on the Yrillians.

They are not quite Cardassian affiliates, not yet, but they are leaning dangerously close. @OneirosTheWriter stated that if it comes to war with the Sydraxians, the Yrillians will jump in on their side. If we can push the balance towards the Federation, keep them neutral at least, then that would be a considerable win. Even if we promise the Cardassians to stop pushing their affiliates, the Yrillians won't be part of that deal.
 
I know pp will be very, very limited and we may not be able to afford it, but I think my third priority after the Ambassador and better anti-Syndicate legislation might be:

Another diplomatic push on the Yrillians.

They are not quite Cardassian affiliates, not yet, but they are leaning dangerously close. @OneirosTheWriter stated that if it comes to war with the Sydraxians, the Yrillians will jump in on their side. If we can push the balance towards the Federation, keep them neutral at least, then that would be a considerable win. Even if we promise the Cardassians to stop pushing their affiliates, the Yrillians won't be part of that deal.

Remember that unless the crisis forces her resignation, Sousa will retain her ability to make deals without expending PP. Might be good to think on which faction would benefit most from closer Yrillian ties?
 
I know pp will be very, very limited and we may not be able to afford it, but I think my third priority after the Ambassador and better anti-Syndicate legislation might be:

Another diplomatic push on the Yrillians.

They are not quite Cardassian affiliates, not yet, but they are leaning dangerously close. @OneirosTheWriter stated that if it comes to war with the Sydraxians, the Yrillians will jump in on their side. If we can push the balance towards the Federation, keep them neutral at least, then that would be a considerable win. Even if we promise the Cardassians to stop pushing their affiliates, the Yrillians won't be part of that deal.
Tough, we had 78 going into the MWCO vote, 15 is reserved for the pacifists so 63, spent 10 but then gained 20 from the Enterprise so we are up to 73. Anti-syndicate and ambassador project will take 64 leaving 9 right now. We would need 11 pp to be able to do that. Now if we get a clean Indoria or Apiata membership event before the snakepit we may get that, or get very lucky in events for the month.
 
Tough, we had 78 going into the MWCO vote, 15 is reserved for the pacifists so 63, spent 10 but then gained 20 from the Enterprise so we are up to 73. Anti-syndicate and ambassador project will take 64 leaving 9 right now. We would need 11 pp to be able to do that. Now if we get a clean Indoria or Apiata membership event before the snakepit we may get that, or get very lucky in events for the month.
11 pp in 2 quarters of captain's logs. Quite possible.
 
Sorry, I'd forgotten that relevant detail. My apologies.

That being said, there is a distinction between them having encountered telepaths and them having routine enough access to telepaths that they can reliably train high-ranking members of the State to resist telepathy.

The problem is your scenario at no point requires them to have active contact with telepaths now, just at some previous point. Once they've developed the training regime and proved it works they don't actually need (and probably definitely don't want) to continue testing it by having people rummage around inside their senior officers' heads who aren't even good Cardassians. It's also entirely possible it was developed against a wartime enemy using POWs or the like to test.
 
It's funny to say this, but I think you may actually be a little too hard on the Cardassians here.

I don't think treaties are meaningless to them. They have a very "Cardassia First" attitude, but they aren't without any principles. If they make a deal, they'll keep it, because keeping deals is what you do and part of their self-image.

They seemed willing to wipe their asses with treaties in cannon when they felt they could get away with it. They don't seem to consider it really breaking your word if the other guy isn't a cardassian.
 
We know the Dawiar, Yrillians, and Sydraxians have governments which are not entirely puppets of Cardassia. The Dawiar in particular may well be on the brink of declaring neutrality, especially if they can get guarantees of being left alone to develop a sizeable share of space for themselves. They have to have realized by now that ongoing affiliation with Cardassia is unlikely to lead to significant benefits for them, among other things because it makes them targets for forces they cannot withstand in the event of war.

They're not Cardassian clients (well, alright, the Dawiar are? Kinda?), so why is Cardassia presuming to speak for them? If a species doesn't wish to interact with the Federation, then surely they can say so themselves :p

The three major demands they're making are:

1) Recognition of the status of Bajor,
2) Our ceding claims to the Gabriel Expanse, and
3) Our ceasing to engage in diplomatic approaches to "their" affiliates.

Oh sure. But... #2 is "not going to happen" (aka "on what grounds?"), while #3 is going to get a response of "what do you mean, 'affiliates'?" (in reference to species that don't have a formal client relationship with Cardassia). And, of course, #1 is liable to get a not-dissimilar response along the lines of "Well, of course we're not going to interfere with a species' self-determination" or a similar non-committal answer. I mean, it's not like there's a Bajoran government-in-exile begging the Federation to liberate their people. The Federation is likely to be reasonably happy with an implied "well, we won't interfere as long as there's a lack of atrocities. We hate atrocities almost as much as we hate, say, all-devouring biophages..." to limit Cardassian exploitation somewhat. I mean, the Federation would be happy to have the Bajoran people as a part of it, but if they prefer to be part of the Cardassian group then so be it.

I mean, I understand what Cardassia is doing - they're attempting to get the Federation to offer danegeld. But I'm saying that an agreement conceptually along those kinds of lines might not be a bad thing for the Federation :p
 
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And, of course, #1 is liable to get a not-dissimilar response along the lines of "Well, of course we're not going to interfere with a species' self-determination" or a similar non-committal answer. I mean, it's not like there's a Bajoran government-in-exile begging the Federation to liberate their people.
Well, uh.
Deposed members of the government argue that this is a blatant coup. Speaking from newly imposed exile on Rethelia, Sorje Velic called on the upper castes of Bajoran society to resist this usurpation of Bajoran sovereignty.
 
Remember that unless the crisis forces her resignation, Sousa will retain her ability to make deals without expending PP. Might be good to think on which faction would benefit most from closer Yrillian ties?
Historically, making such deals tends to result in us having to give up something else. I believe that last snakepit we used this to arrange a humanitarian aid convoy to Celos (which may be helping us now by decreasing the number of 'accidental guerillas' willing to fight against us on Celos). Thing is, we had to make a deal with Stesk and the pacifists, and part of the deal was an agreement to let them spend some of our political capital for us.

Sousa can definitely make bargains, but the bargains will come with a price.

The problem is your scenario at no point requires them to have active contact with telepaths now, just at some previous point. Once they've developed the training regime and proved it works they don't actually need (and probably definitely don't want) to continue testing it by having people rummage around inside their senior officers' heads who aren't even good Cardassians. It's also entirely possible it was developed against a wartime enemy using POWs or the like to test.
Yes, I came to that conclusion later, if you read the rest of my posts on the subject.

That said, are you at least willing to grant me that this might actually be a reasonable concern? That if the Cardassians are hard to read telepathically as a result of some training regimen that many of them undergo, at least maybe we should be on the lookout for evidence of Cardassian telepaths, or of a group of telepaths affiliated with the Union in some way?

I just don't want us to get complacent here. The numbers game suggests that the Federation can overrun the Cardassians without too much trouble, if we are able to mobilize the bulk of the member world fleets. A lot of us have gotten, I think, a bit too relaxed about the outcome of a possible war, or for that matter of another ten years of sniping and skirmishing like the last seven years or so have been.

Thing is, the size of our fleets is probably a matter of public record in-setting, or at least reasonably accurate estimates can be made. The Cardassians have to know we are rapidly getting bigger than them, a lot bigger, and yet they're still willing to crank up the pressure.

So we should be willing to think a little outside the box. What resources might the Cardassians have, that lend them extra confidence? Maybe they have hidden affiliates- but thanks to Captain Mrr'shan and the Enterprise, we'll soon have a pretty good idea what's going on there. Maybe they have some kind of secret weapon that they didn't have in canon, but which lends them confidence (e.g. cloaking devices or psychics). Maybe they've got a special political angle- say, they've managed to suborn members of the Federation Council without the Betazoids knowing it, somehow.

It might be that all this speculation is pointless, the Cardassians have essentially nothing important that we don't know about. In which case we know the full measure of their strength and they are willing to take aggressive, provocative steps towards a rival twice their size, in limited hopes of gaining much of anything as a result.

But we should at least pay attention to what we see happening in game, and see if any hints drop foreshadowing unexpected developments.
 

...Hm. So it looks like at least the Konnen could be pried away from Cardassia by a show of force. No wonder they don't want us talking to their affiliates. We should establish relations as soon as possible. Maybe the Explorer Corps could help...

This worries me greatly. Another crisis on our doorsteps, and this time we can guarantee the Cardassians will be backing a faction.

Pretty sure "about to tip into civil war" is the default state of Yrillian society.
 
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