They seemed to understand the law of cycles/madokami well enough-
The isolation field was an attempt to figure out if Madoka existed. Before that all they had was Homura's word that the entire universe was different last Thursday.

If Madokami happens we really need to tell Homumom to keep her mouth shut this time.

e: ninja'd
 
Yes, we use horse-drawn carriages, and our pa used horse-drawn carriages, and our pa's pa used horse drawn carriages. What's this thing you're talking about? Putting hydrocarbons in a mechanical device to generate energy? Sounds fascinating. It would vastly improve on our horse-drawn carriage system. Let's see if we can make that work.

What's that? We're being greedy for not being satisfied with our horse-drawn carriages? We're not giving enough thought to drunk drivers and traffic accidents and car bombs? I don't really understand what you mean. Are you saying you wouldn't want to have a far more efficient system, based on this 'automobile' thing you've been talking about?


The real problem with the Incubators is that they're using the Hollywood version of game theory, AKA the three-line executive summary.
 
That's the thing though. Without foresight there's no way they could have know what they were doing was dangerous. If I remember the whole thing was supposed to be them just trying to prove the law of cycles existed. Any actual containment testing would have happened after they had some idea what they were dealing with.

So. Still does not absolve them from mucking with a working system because they did not control it one hundred percent, in my opinion.
 
That's the thing though. Without foresight there's no way they could have know what they were doing was dangerous. If I remember the whole thing was supposed to be them just trying to prove the law of cycles existed. Any actual containment testing would have happened after they had some idea what they were dealing with.
They were attempting to observe and eventually contain a god concept. That kind of thing comes with risk.
What's that? We're being greedy for not being satisfied with our horse-drawn carriages? We're not giving enough thought to drunk drivers and traffic accidents and car bombs? I don't really understand what you mean. Are you saying you wouldn't want to have a far more efficient system, based on this 'automobile' thing you've been talking about?
I just mean that they will deviate from their normally intelligent actions when presented with sufficient reward for doing so. IE: They don't seem to like to tell the un-contracted too much about the system before they contract. Madoka was so powerful they decided to tell her everything to play off of her martyr complex and instead got screwed over by the Madokami wish. Rebellion was at least new ground for them, so some of their foolish actions can be excused that way, but the point we're making is that they can be tempted into doing stupid things. This is relevant information when it comes to a species that displays few, if any, other weaknesses.
 
I just mean that they will deviate from their normally intelligent actions when presented with sufficient reward for doing so.
So... Like every human ever?
Madoka was so powerful they decided to tell her everything to play off of her martyr complex and instead got screwed over by the Madokami wish.
Granted that they succeeded several dozen times, only losing out on Madoka's power because of Homura's reset. Once they figure out Homura has been looping, it seems a pretty safe bet that they can succeed this time as well.
Rebellion was at least new ground for them, so some of their foolish actions can be excused that way, but the point we're making is that they can be tempted into doing stupid things.
Assuming you hadn't been spoiled, at the moment that Madoka came down to get Homura, did you have even the remotest clue that Homura would do what she did? Is there any logical reason for you to expect it to have happened?

At worst, if the Incubators' plan failed and they didn't manage to detect the Law of Cycles, the only reasonable failure condition that one could expect is that Homura fades into nothingness, just like every other magical girl ever. To them, success was a brand new power source, while failure was a return to the status quo. Anything else is completely out of left field.
 
Kinematics, would you please elaborate? Although I think I have a good idea what that means...
The basic explanation of game theory uses a classic game called the Prisoner's Dilemma. In PD, two players (assumed to have been partners in some crime) are independently given the choice of whether to cooperate with (not betray) the other player, or to defect against (betray) the other player.

Despite the fact that the overall reward is better if they both cooperate, the rational decision to maximize personal gain, and minimize risk, is to always defect.

Thus the conclusion that the rational actor will always betray their partner, because it's simply the rational thing to do.

Turns out things get a lot more nuanced when you start factoring in other considerations, and not make it a one-time decision, but that's too complicated to make it past the executive filter.
 
The basic explanation of game theory uses a classic game called the Prisoner's Dilemma. In PD, two players (assumed to have been partners in some crime) are independently given the choice of whether to cooperate with (not betray) the other player, or to defect against (betray) the other player.

Despite the fact that the overall reward is better if they both cooperate, the rational decision to maximize personal gain, and minimize risk, is to always defect.

Thus the conclusion that the rational actor will always betray their partner, because it's simply the rational thing to do.

Turns out things get a lot more nuanced when you start factoring in other considerations, and not make it a one-time decision, but that's too complicated to make it past the executive filter.

Ah. I guess long time versus short time gains, the fact that reputation is important and so on?
Well, what do you expect from beings who also use the Hollywood definition of Entropy, obviously?
And , one more Thing: Since the Incubators themselves PREDICTED humanity becoming a "member of galactic Civilization " in the foreseeable future, well... What exactly do they think we will do when we wisen up to their MILLENIA of mindbreaking young girls, seeding earth with monsters and using us as a giant power station run on human suffering? Thank them for their great work? Long - time planners they are obviously NOT...
 
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So... Like every human ever?
Well, yeah. It's one of his only human traits, and his only known weakness. I just mean that all of their known failures have been due to ambition, if that's what I have to call it. I'm not saying that he's a total fool when potential gain is involved, but his biggest mistakes have come at those times when he had quite a bit to gain. Yes, his risks usually paid off, but the nature of a risk is that it might blow up in your face instead. It's not really relevant at the moment, just a potential weakness to be exploited.
Ah. I guess long time versus short time gains, the fact that reputation is important and so on?
Well, what do you expect from beings who also use the Hollywood definition of Entropy, obviously?
And , one more Thing: Since the Incubators themselves PREDICTED humanity becoming a "member of galactic Civilization " in the foreseeable future, well... What exactly do they think we will do when we wisen up to their MILLENIA of mindbreaking young girls, seeding earth with monsters and using us as a giant power station run on human suffering? Thank them for their great work? Long - time planners they are obviously NOT...
Given his behavior in episode 10, he probably never really intended for humanity to do that.
 
Well, yeah. It's one of his only human traits, and his only known weakness. I just mean that all of their known failures have been due to ambition, if that's what I have to call it. I'm not saying that he's a total fool when potential gain is involved, but his biggest mistakes have come at those times when he had quite a bit to gain. Yes, his risks usually paid off, but the nature of a risk is that it might blow up in your face instead. It's not really relevant at the moment, just a potential weakness to be exploited.

Given his behavior in episode 10, he probably never really intended for humanity to do that.

Which proves adequately that Kyuubey can and does outright LIE, thank you very much...
 
Or he figured they wouldnt mind, after all it was logical, ethical (to him, no lieing) and benefical (both to the universe and humanity as a whole, assuming the stone age claim is correct).

Gretchen may have been beyond his expectations, or depending on his wording with prediction, something like "we predict a 0.01% chance of this happening" may be enough to fulfill literal truth.
 
Which proves adequately that Kyuubey can and does outright LIE, thank you very much...
Give me a moment, pretty sure his phrasing is too ambiguous to be a lie.

Kyubey: "And someday, even you humans will be able to leave your planet and come and join us."

Hm. I must have been wrong in that regard; he didn't expect Gretchen to destroy the earth, but also didn't give a shit when it happened (the evidence that Kyubey never outright lies is far stronger than the evidence that he does. To begin assuming at this point that he can would be shadowrunning.)
 
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Ah. I guess long time versus short time gains, the fact that reputation is important and so on?
It depends on what aspect of game theory you're looking at. The basics don't distinguish between long term and short term. The primary purpose is to analyze decision-making reasoning based on incomplete information (such as not knowing what choice the other player is going to make). Then you have iterative versions where you repeat the same decision over and over against the same person. Then you have the evolutionary model, which looks at decisions among large populations over time, where you're not facing off against the same person over and over, but instead facing off against someone with an unknown strategy, and you need a strategy that will work against as many alternate strategies as possible.

Then you start adding in different challenges (eg: the Hawk/Dove problem, the Stag/Hare problem, etc), and add in meta analysis, and the overall challenge becomes very interesting indeed.

As an interesting extrapolation from the process, the basic conclusions reached from most game theory problems is that it would appear to largely support the amoralist viewpoint (cf: Carinthium), which of course suits the Incubators just fine. There's almost no support for any reason for anyone to behave in a 'moral' manner. Greed, then, isn't even a specific weakness; it's just the basic result of trying to get the best outcome.

However, if you take things a step or two further, combining evolutionary game theory with a social decision-making unit of arbitrary depth, you can see where morals must naturally evolve as a fundamental part of the system. The only way the Incubators can evolve without morals (or rather, to not develop beyond the most simplistic rational behavior) is because their hivemind removes all competing social units.
 
It depends on what aspect of game theory you're looking at. The basics don't distinguish between long term and short term. The primary purpose is to analyze decision-making reasoning based on incomplete information (such as not knowing what choice the other player is going to make). Then you have iterative versions where you repeat the same decision over and over against the same person. Then you have the evolutionary model, which looks at decisions among large populations over time, where you're not facing off against the same person over and over, but instead facing off against someone with an unknown strategy, and you need a strategy that will work against as many alternate strategies as possible.

Then you start adding in different challenges (eg: the Hawk/Dove problem, the Stag/Hare problem, etc), and add in meta analysis, and the overall challenge becomes very interesting indeed.

As an interesting extrapolation from the process, the basic conclusions reached from most game theory problems is that it would appear to largely support the amoralist viewpoint (cf: Carinthium), which of course suits the Incubators just fine. There's almost no support for any reason for anyone to behave in a 'moral' manner. Greed, then, isn't even a specific weakness; it's just the basic result of trying to get the best outcome.

However, if you take things a step or two further, combining evolutionary game theory with a social decision-making unit of arbitrary depth, you can see where morals must naturally evolve as a fundamental part of the system. The only way the Incubators can evolve without morals (or rather, to not develop beyond the most simplistic rational behavior) is because their hivemind removes all competing social units.

Or they really did not evolve at all...
Thank you for your time, Kinematics.
 
If he claims our coming ascension to be a high probability, he is lying. QED.
Looked up the wording, it's pretty unambiguous, so he must not have known Gretchen would be so powerful that she could destroy the earth, and honestly expected humanity to survive. Everything he ever says in the show is eventually shown to be true, from a certain point of view. This shit'll get too complicated if we assume he can lie, anyway.
 
[X] SWB

Name: Sabrina
Power: Grief Control
Occupation: Meguca/Trauma Juggler/SCIENCE enthusiast/Part Time Gilgamesh
Goal: The Destruction of an Alien Civilization/Creating Microwavable Tea/The Happiness of Mumi/The Golden Ending/ Finding Out Homu's secret
Illness: Brain Damage/Amnesia/Insanity

Well that sums up my thoughts on these 1k pages.
 
[X] SWB

Name: Sabrina
Power: Grief Control
Occupation: Meguca/Trauma Juggler/SCIENCE enthusiast/Part Time Gilgamesh
Goal: The Destruction of an Alien Civilization/Creating Microwavable Tea/The Happiness of Mumi/The Golden Ending/ Finding Out Homu's secret
Illness: Brain Damage/Amnesia/Insanity

Well that sums up my thoughts on these 1k pages.

Alignment: StupidHeroic Good
 
[X] SWB

Name: Sabrina
Power: Grief Control
Occupation: Meguca/Trauma Juggler/SCIENCE enthusiast/Part Time Gilgamesh
Goal: The Destruction of an Alien Civilization/Creating Microwavable Tea/The Happiness of Mumi/The Golden Ending/ Finding Out Homu's secret
Illness: Brain Damage/Amnesia/Insanity

Well that sums up my thoughts on these 1k pages.

That is no Cvilization, that is ONE hivemind who comprises a danger to all of humanity, hell yes, we should want it destroyed.
 
[X] Take a deep breath and give it a moment. Make fresh tea. Let everything sink in.
[X] Make a judgment call on who would be more receptive to opening up. Look past the fronts they put up and ask...
-[X] Sayaka... did you want to talk about it?
-[X] Mami... I know you've had a few very trying days. Did you want to... talk about it?
--[X] Let her talk, cry, shout, whatever, as much as she needs. Listen. Let Madoka and the others show their support.
[X] Repeat with the other. Don't let either of them play down their feelings as insignificant. Everyone here cares.
[X] If both refuse, do what we can to relax the mood. Small talk. Dinner. Smiles and casual conversation, if appropriate.

I like this plan, but I propose a few modifications:
[X] Take a deep breath and give it a moment. Make fresh tea. Let everything sink in.
[X] We've all had a few very trying days and I think it would be helpful to talk about it.
-[X] I'll go first: I don't have any memories before last week and I suspect that was because I did not exist previous to my appearance in front of you. I also suspect that my very existence was the result of a wish. Regardless, my wish was to control grief and my ongoing desire is to carry out that wish by keeping people happy and safe from grief. But in the past few days I've met so many girls who just cannot seem to get along; it's all just so frustrating.
-[X] Mami... I know you've had a few very trying days. Did you want to... talk about it?
--[X] Let her talk, cry, shout, whatever, as much as she needs. Listen. Let Madoka and the others show their support.
-[X] Sayaka... did you want to talk about it?
-[X] Madoka... how about you?
-[X] Homura... I know that you're a very private person, but everyone here cares. Is there anything you want to talk about?
[X] Don't let anyone play down their feelings as insignificant. Everyone here cares.
[X] Afterwards, do what we can to relax the mood. Music. Small talk. Ice cream. Dinner. Smiles and casual conversation, if appropriate.

Edit: Madoka is the best at comforting and encouraging people. This conversation will really give her an opportunity to shine.
 
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I like it. Hm... but would it be wrong to reveal the whole "only been alive for a week" thing to everyone before we tell Mami? Eh, I think that's just paranoia.

[X] Boonerunner.
 
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