[X][Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X][Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X] [King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[X] [Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
Alright you dunderheads. Just mathing this isn't something we can do. As @Powerofmind has been saying, we have to look at the possible trait gains, and long term consequences of each choice.
Size of Sacrifice to Spirits
[] Small (-1 Econ, chance of stability loss, ???)
[] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
We already perform sacrifices, however, we don't do human sacrifice. Any choice here is unlikely to leave us with major negative traits. More importantly, we need the +1 stability. More than we even need the econ. This is because the next few choices hinge on that stability. However, sacrificing everything is just a recipe to compound our issues. All in or bust just doesn't work here, and just ignores the issues in favor of dogpiling on what looks juicy. The large choice here is prudent. It nets us a guaranteed stability, leaves us with 1 econ and possible ulterior effects.
Emergency Restore Harmony?
[] No, they could cause further panic
[] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
This is simply risky. Either way. Its essentially a 50% chance for a null to negative gain. By that same token, it is also a 75% chance for null to positive gain. I see no reason not to choose it.
Share the scourge warding magic?
[] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
Do you guys want to fight the Dead Priests? If no, then pick NO. Its that fucking simple. This is our best advantage against our neighbors, and nothing else comes as close to knocking them down a peg or three.
Where should Twythulmyn go?
[] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
This is an interesting choice here. The final one is almost guaranteed to give us a human sacrifice trait. I can't say I really want one. I don't really like the other civs that do have one, nor does any other civ in the game. They fear them. The immediate stability gain is nice, and we could use it, but I don't want to gain it in this manner. The Legitimacy is also nice, but we actually don't need that at all.
The talk with the Thunderhorse is a decent option. It should help calm tensions outside our borders. That's cool, but frankly do we really care about anyone outside our borders unless we're taking them in? I don't think we do. Humanitarian efforts are nice, but we have a lot going on internally that we need to worry about, and having our chief take a year to travel through unstable lands to an unstable people is a terrible idea. There's also no stability gain possible.
That leaves our the Remain Home option. If you were one of The People would you want your leader our gallivanting when the goddamn sky is falling?
With disease and comets, everyone has lost their mind and thousands are running scared
[] Close the borders (-1 Stability, chance of further stability loss)
[] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
[] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
This is a little difficult. We straight up can't take everyone in, or we will have overcrowding issues and probably huge stability problems. Based on the above choices, if taken along the guidelines I've proposed we should have 1 stability. This is just based on odds of getting extra stability from any of the options and averaging it out. So, we can safely take the (-2 +4-5 Econ choice). Not only does this not carry the risk of secondary effects or overcrowding, but it leaves us in a good place economically and stability wise to take advantage of the chaos next turn.
[X][Sacrifice] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
If you guys want math, this is:
+1 stab
+.75 Stab (averaged)
-.25 Stab (Just guessing the probability)
+.5 Stab (Once again guessing the probability)
-2 Stab
= -1
By this math we are left at -1. This is averaged and is what we are most likely to get. Seeing as the math doesnt work like this exactly, here are best and worst case scenarios.
_____________________
Best case leaves us at 1 Stability.
+1
+2
-0
+1
-2
= +1
Worst case:
+1
-1
-1
-2
=-4
Yeah that sucks but its unlikely and there's no lingering issues.
Here's the best and worst case for all in option:
Best:
+2
+2
+1
-5
=0
Congrats. You did a bunch of stuff, and we have a lot of econ and now every single one of our enemies are cured of disease. We also have overcrowding issues and a bunch of fun new traits causing cultural dissonance We aren't really any better off. Please stop voting for this plan.
Worst
+1
-1
+1
+1
-5
=-3
Congrats. We have overcrowding issues, cultural dissonance, and every single one of our enemies are cured of disease. Thats OK, we're unstable. Lets just push the damn button.
[x] [Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[x] [Harmony]Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[x] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[x] [Ward] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[x] [Refugee]Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
Okay, a MUCH LESS PANICKED VERSION THAN WHAT EVERYONE IS DOING.
In this situation stability is of the most absolute importance, and we can honestly easily gain econ back. In addition to other things, we will be able to get the econ back from taking in friendly groups.
The risk of hitting negative stability is far too real here. Remember, restore harmony starts out by putting us AT -1 to what our current situation is, and then trying to restore it. There is a very real chance we will hit -4 with many current plans because of this. Simply put, I do not count it as worth the risk.
My biggest problem with the sacrifice, period, is that I do not want to say sacrificing humans ever has any advantage, because it would lead to people thinking the Dead Priests might be on to something. We do not want to justify what is honestly, an enemy culture. Furthermore, this allows us to get it would give us a potential for very good results from the Thunder Horse tribe. Let's not justify the enemy's culture.
The spreading of our megaproject, however, is a serious gamble. I feel it would solidify our religion far more than others, if we were to do it, however, potentially even causing some questioning in the DP camp, which would be most beneficial to us. It also gives us the immediate +1 to Diplomacy we will need to make up the tank of taking the people in.
While taking in only some friendly groups, we will end our stability and econ right back where we started, or ahead if we are lucky.
[X] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] No, they could cause further panic
[X] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[X] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
This is the safe plan. It can not combo to instakill our civilization through unfortunate stability hits, and we end up with our economy back where it started and our stability at either -1 or 0, without it ever even hitting -2. We also get to apply our heroic diplomacy to the TH in times of crises, being all the more effective for being a reasonable head, and while I admit the spreading to everyone carries it's risks, I believe some of that gives us a good chance of becoming a hero to everyone, and thus the people everyone listens to. We will also need the immediate diplomacy gain to make sure the rolls can't hurt us too badly.
It is a good plan, a safe plan, one that fits within our own moral values, and I highly encourage people to take it.
Alright you dunderheads. Just mathing this isn't something we can do. As @Powerofmind has been saying, we have to look at the possible trait gains, and long term consequences of each choice.
Size of Sacrifice to Spirits
[] Small (-1 Econ, chance of stability loss, ???)
[] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
We already perform sacrifices, however, we don't do human sacrifice. Any choice here is unlikely to leave us with major negative traits. More importantly, we need the +1 stability. More than we even need the econ. This is because the next few choices hinge on that stability. However, sacrificing everything is just a recipe to compound our issues. All in or bust just doesn't work here, and just ignores the issues in favor of dogpiling on what looks juicy. The large choice here is prudent. It nets us a guaranteed stability, leaves us with 1 econ and possible ulterior effects.
Emergency Restore Harmony?
[] No, they could cause further panic
[] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
This is simply risky. Either way. Its essentially a 50% chance for a null to negative gain. By that same token, it is also a 75% chance for null to positive gain. I see no reason not to choose it.
Share the scourge warding magic?
[] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
Do you guys want to fight the Dead Priests? If no, then pick NO. Its that fucking simple. This is our best advantage against our neighbors, and nothing else comes as close to knocking them down a peg or three.
Where should Twythulmyn go?
[] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
This is an interesting choice here. The final one is almost guaranteed to give us a human sacrifice trait. I can't say I really want one. I don't really like the other civs that do have one, nor does any other civ in the game. They fear them. The immediate stability gain is nice, and we could use it, but I don't want to gain it in this manner. The Legitimacy is also nice, but we actually don't need that at all.
The talk with the Thunderhorse is a decent option. It should help calm tensions outside our borders. That's cool, but frankly do we really care about anyone outside our borders unless we're taking them in? I don't think we do. Humanitarian efforts are nice, but we have a lot going on internally that we need to worry about, and having our chief take a year to travel through unstable lands to an unstable people is a terrible idea. There's also no stability gain possible.
That leaves our the Remain Home option. If you were one of The People would you want your leader our gallivanting when the goddamn sky is falling?
With disease and comets, everyone has lost their mind and thousands are running scared
[] Close the borders (-1 Stability, chance of further stability loss)
[] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
[] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
This is a little difficult. We straight up can't take everyone in, or we will have overcrowding issues and probably huge stability problems. Based on the above choices, if taken along the guidelines I've proposed we should have 1 stability. This is just based on odds of getting extra stability from any of the options and averaging it out. So, we can safely take the (-2 +4-5 Econ choice). Not only does this not carry the risk of secondary effects or overcrowding, but it leaves us in a good place economically and stability wise to take advantage of the chaos next turn.
[X] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
[x] [Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[x] [Harmony]Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[x] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[x] [Ward]] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[x] [Refugee]Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
Vote Tally : Paths of Civilization | Page 667 | Sufficient Velocity ##### NetTally 1.7.4
[2] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[1] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[1] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[1] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[1] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[1] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Harmony
[8][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[4][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: King
[5][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[3][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[2][King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Refugee
[5][Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[3][Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[2][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[1][Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[1][Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Sacrifice
[8][Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[3][Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[1][Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Ward
[6][Ward] ] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[4][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[2][Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
Total No. of Voters: 13
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
I really think those jumping on the 'hey free economy' bandwagon are making a huge mistake. Sure, this is a chance for economic gain, but a situation like this is WHY we got the scourging ward. Let our neighbors take the hit.
There's every chance if we let the secret out people will make stealing our cows a damn way of life because they can't run the megaproject themselves and given our civics that'll mean indefinite war with whoever does the stealing. And you can bet your ass if word gets out to any of the DP's neighbors they'll find out the secret sooner or later- torture has a way of loosening people's lips. And again, their first thought will be 'we'll just take the cows then'.
[X] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
Why are people so willing to give away our big advantage and risk a human sacrifice trait? Even if it doesn't give us a human sacrifice trait it sets the president of sacrificing a leader when things go wrong which is a terrible thing to have.
--*sigh* C'mon @Academia Nut, this is the only thing I have, you can't take that away from me.
But seriously, this should perhaps be considered as a plan vote instead, no? The refugee pick dominates everything but combinations of Sacrifice+King+Harmony can be used to make up for it but won't make sense if various options from disparate plans win instead.
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
Try to get positive to stability, pay Econ down for it. Not taking Harmony both tactically and because I don't trust order of operations.
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
I don't particularly see the action combination I proposed as being self-flagellating. I'm simply taking less risks for a smaller reward (and keeping the cow treatment secrets away from anyone the DP could ever even touch).
If my assumptions on roll values are correct, my choice has a greater than 50% chance of leaving us with exactly the same econ and stability that we had before the vote. It's basically a vote to weather the storm cautiously.
Meant to address this earlier, but I said the whole 'self-flagellation can also be self-defeating' in the sense that if people start looking at things and going "Ha! This option is clearly immediately superior, so it must have shitty long term consequences and is thus clearly a trap option!" then that can lead down silly paths. Sometimes an option will come out superior for achieving your objectives and decrying it as a "Trap option!" is counter-productive.
[X][Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X][Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
When the dice says fuck you, the only sane response is "again".
Vote Tally : Paths of Civilization | Page 667 | Sufficient Velocity ##### NetTally 1.7.4 Task: Harmony
[12][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[5][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: King
[8][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[7][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[2][King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Refugee
[7][Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[4][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[4][Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[3][Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[1][Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Sacrifice
[11][Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[3][Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[1][Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Ward
[7][Ward] ] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[6][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[3][Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[1][Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
Total No. of Voters: 17
