Paths of Civilization

veekie · Oct 13, 2017

ctulhuslp said:
If you think forced resettlement us not cleansing, well....I mean, it is not genocide, but it is still a thing.
And 'moral perspective' is the very thing which kept us together. We do not get to depopulate the big city without acquiring society willing to depopulate via forced resettlement a big city. That's not going to help us keep enmpire together, not to start on the religious uproar by priests.
So, like, dismissing the approach bevause it is moral, as if every Ymaryn is rationalbot who will not be influenced by our actions, as if morality is not the thing which glued us together, is very, very, hm...it ignores a lot of things which should not be ignored.

"Morality" is the reason People can see different faith, shrug and go "okay dude let us hash it out in debate". Or integrate immigrants en masse. Ignoring it is myopic.

Decide between the morality here:
-Ymaryn takes Trell
--Trelli population forcibly resettled with Ymaryn migrants
--Trell culturally destroyed
--Trell physical/genetic population suffers significant attrition due to losses from adapting to new environment.

-Freehills takes Trell
--Trell population put to the sword. Justifiably even.
--Trell culturally destroyed
--Trell physical/genetic population destroyed.

-Ymaryn bails out Trell
--Trell population survives largely intact
--Trell culture preserved, including the nasty slaving part.
--Trell physical/genetic population largely intact.

-Ignore Trell
--Trell suffers major attrition as the pirates and mercenaries fight over the rubble.
--Trell culture suffers attrition/degradation as it moves towards survivalist/martial bent to cope.
--Tree physical/genetic population suffers attrition, largely by their own blades.

Which is more moral?
Can you answer that?

Raichu1972 said:
What population math?

Where are you getting this from?
Why are you assuming how Influence will work when we've literally only done it once as a secondary?

Why are you assuming how large the population of Trelli is?

Please explain these things to me.

Trell, the city, is one province. The location only has room for one trade post, with nowhere to expand.
-A one province state has a stat cap of 8 in each stat.
-This means that a golden age, overflowing Martial Trell, has around 40-48 stat points worth of population, depending on whether they had split Art into Culture and Tech yet or not.
--The current post-collapse Trell has zero or negative Wealth due to currency wipeout.
--The current post-collapse Trell has likely low Martial, as they relied on their mercenaries for military power.
--Combined, this says the current Trell has a maximum of 18-26 stat points worth of population, depending on whether they have Tech or not.
-A Main Influence Subordinate moves 18 points of Ymaryn population into Trell. This would be ethnic cleansing, because when you just moved in enough Ymaryn people to represent 1/3 of the new population, of which the majority are experts and elites in their trades, you're pushing them out of their social positions into lower ones.

Once Ymaryn origin pops constitutes a majority of their stat points, the probability of a successful rebellion drops dramatically, but to eradicate it, you need to move ALL of them. Thus, a Main and a Secondary contributing 30 stat points would completely replace their city's population with Ymaryn.

PrimalShadow · Oct 13, 2017

Raichu1972 said:
We have never gotten the benefits of a subordinates natural wonder.

We didn't get the benefits of the Dragon Graveyard until we integrated the Stallions for example.

Even now, we only have our vassals giving us food, not wealth.

I'm not sure why you're assuming we will get instant access to our vassals wealth when this has never been the case.

Great point. Just like the current productivity from the lowlands is going to Txolla and not us, the wealth gain from the strait will go to Trell and not us. Who will then probably use at least in part to decrease dependency and make themselves more of a nuisance.

The only way to fix this is by integrating Trell - except, can we even do that? We've been told that we can't integrate places that are too far away from us, and Trell is a pretty good distance away. Not to mention the fact that it has a different culture and everything.

veekie · Oct 13, 2017

Raichu1972 said:
We have never gotten the benefits of a subordinates natural wonder.

We didn't get the benefits of the Dragon Graveyard until we integrated the Stallions for example.

Even now, we only have our vassals giving us food, not wealth.

I'm not sure why you're assuming we will get instant access to our vassals wealth when this has never been the case.

This doesn't add the natural wonder. This is just adding their native trade balance to ours and ending the Trade Disruption.

It hits return on investment in 4 turns if you count paying for all the stat points spent influencing them.
It's that bullshit.

Raichu1972 · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
Decide between the morality here:
-Ymaryn takes Trell
--Trelli population forcibly resettled with Ymaryn migrants
--Trell culturally destroyed
--Trell physical/genetic population suffers significant attrition due to losses from adapting to new environment.

-Freehills takes Trell
--Trell population put to the sword. Justifiably even.
--Trell culturally destroyed
--Trell physical/genetic population destroyed.

-Ymaryn bails out Trell
--Trell population survives largely intact
--Trell culture preserved, including the nasty slaving part.
--Trell physical/genetic population largely intact.

-Ignore Trell
--Trell suffers major attrition as the pirates and mercenaries fight over the rubble.
--Trell culture suffers attrition/degradation as it moves towards survivalist/martial bent to cope.
--Tree physical/genetic population suffers attrition, largely by their own blades.

Which is more moral?
Can you answer that?

Trell, the city, is one province. The location only has room for one trade post, with nowhere to expand.
-A one province state has a stat cap of 8 in each stat.
-This means that a golden age, overflowing Martial Trell, has around 40-48 stat points worth of population, depending on whether they had split Art into Culture and Tech yet or not.
--The current post-collapse Trell has zero or negative Wealth due to currency wipeout.
--The current post-collapse Trell has likely low Martial, as they relied on their mercenaries for military power.
--Combined, this says the current Trell has a maximum of 18-26 stat points worth of population, depending on whether they have Tech or not.
-A Main Influence Subordinate moves 18 points of Ymaryn population into Trell. This would be ethnic cleansing, because when you just moved in enough Ymaryn people to represent 1/3 of the new population, of which the majority are experts and elites in their trades, you're pushing them out of their social positions into lower ones.

Once Ymaryn origin pops constitutes a majority of their stat points, the probability of a successful rebellion drops dramatically, but to eradicate it, you need to move ALL of them. Thus, a Main and a Secondary contributing 30 stat points would completely replace their city's population with Ymaryn.

When have stats ever been stated to represent population?

Getting True cities doesn't increase our Econ cap, getting block housing won't increase our stat caps, to give two examples.

It has never even been implied that population density is represented by stat caps, otherwise we would have passively been gaining stat caps from our tons of True Cities.

I feel like you're going off of assumptions that have no basis in the actual quest here.

BungieONI · Oct 13, 2017

Raichu1972 said:
We have never gotten the benefits of a subordinates natural wonder.

We didn't get the benefits of the Dragon Graveyard until we integrated the Stallions for example.

Even now, we only have our vassals giving us food, not wealth.

I'm not sure why you're assuming we will get instant access to our vassals wealth when this has never been the case.

Huh.

I did not think of this. This changes a lot.

Wealth:
Trelli Vassal is under zero obligation to give us any wealth, only food with the current vote. All that this ends is the Trade Disruption which is +3 wealth and we'd end up at +2 Income per turn. (E: Though on second thought they may boost trade power for some things and end up giving us +1 to +2 Wealth)

Strategic:

Control over our contact with the Khemetri. If we take diplomatic actions towards them this can avoid war with the Khemetri.

Mylathadysm has a chance to spread to the Not!Mediterranean.

We can send Trade and Exploration missions into the Not!Med.

Pirates are now a smaller issue inside the Not!Black Sea.

Tin Tribes, Storm Tribes, Freehills have to pass through Trelli if they want to interact with the Not!Med. This is another +3 Wealth for Trelli if our vassal wants to tax them for +1 Wealth per turn.

Trelli itself is a defensive linchpin. This means that Not!Med nations can be defended against with impunity, on their will. If they like us they will defend us, if they want to break away they have many options to choose from up to letting other Not!Med nations through(though the chance of this is small.

Narrative:
We can choose to do what to do with the population afterwards.

Our Traders stop bugging us about taking it.

Strategic/crisis/action losses:

The Regional Liquidity Crisis ended because the Trelli collapsed and trade between the Not!Med and Not!Black Sea was cutoff. The evidence of the Trelli dying from a 1 on their Liquidity Crisis roll means that the holder of the City of Trelli is not exempt from the LC. The LC may or may not return after we reopen the strait. It may also be that it does not return for us, but does for all the Not!Med cultures as we suck away their currency a la China and Rome.

We will need to take Influence actions immediately after taking it so as to reduce future problems. A Secondary to a Main devoted in the Main Turn and up to 18 stats spent.

Unknown number of War Missions necessary to fulfill Lords Loyalty requirement of stamping out surrounding bandits after we take the city. Pirates may require a Sailing Mission. Zero to a Main at the very worst.

Contact with Not!Med societies gives us contact with any events they may spawn. Longer term problem.

The food tax we would apply to them, from the likely winner of subordinate reform, may cause them to rapidly devolve away from cooperation given their recently ruined state. Not certain to occur immediately, but there is a possibility it may. Uncertain number of actions
required to fix/avert, up to a main Influence to fix Loyalty is a good starting estimate.

AN said it makes things a net harder to administrate. Here.

Glassware · Oct 13, 2017

ctulhuslp said:
Yes, we can, like, all in raise armies and turn on Offensive Policy. It worked against nomads, so.

If you think forced resettlement us not cleansing, well....I mean, it is not genocide, but it is still a thing.
And 'moral perspective' is the very thing which kept us together. We do not get to depopulate the big city without acquiring society willing to depopulate via forced resettlement a big city. That's not going to help us keep enmpire together, not to start on the religious uproar by priests.
So, like, dismissing the approach bevause it is moral, as if every Ymaryn is rationalbot who will not be influenced by our actions, as if morality is not the thing which glued us together, is very, very, hm...it ignores a lot of things which should not be ignored.

"Morality" is the reason People can see different faith, shrug and go "okay dude let us hash it out in debate". Or integrate immigrants en masse. Ignoring it is myopic.

Again, arguing from morality when you're taking the position that most likely leads to the population of Trelli being slaughtered in retribution for the sins of their forebears is a weird look.

Raichu1972 · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
This doesn't add the natural wonder. This is just adding their native trade balance to ours and ending the Trade Disruption.

It hits return on investment in 4 turns if you count paying for all the stat points spent influencing them.
It's that bullshit.

Ending the trade disruption is just as easy as helping Freehills take Trelli, so I don't consider that to be a valid argument for war.

They also currently have no native trade balance, whatever that means, because the city imploded and they're too busy exploding to trade right now.

Unless the Trelli also start giving us free actions, we don't get a return on investment.

Especially because our actions are rather precious right now, and we already have a bunch of things that we have to juggle without adding another vassal into the mix.

Random Member · Oct 13, 2017

BungieONI said:
Mylathadysm has a chance to spread to the Not!Mediterranean.

We can send Trade and Exploration missions into the Not!Med.

Pirates are now a smaller issue inside the Not!Black Sea.

Wouldn't these still be possible if the Freehills control Trelli, keep it stable, and we have a good relationship with them?

PrimalShadow · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
-This means that a golden age, overflowing Martial Trell, has around 40-48 stat points worth of population, depending on whether they had split Art into Culture and Tech yet or not.

You missed a stat somewhere. We have 7 resource stats including Martial, so that totals 7*8 = 56 as a stat cap.

veekie said:
-A Main Influence Subordinate moves 18 points of Ymaryn population into Trell. This would be ethnic cleansing, because when you just moved in enough Ymaryn people to represent 1/3 of the new population, of which the majority are experts and elites in their trades, you're pushing them out of their social positions into lower ones.

Note that a Main influence only moves 15 points; the Diplomacy is directly eaten by the action, not transferred.

Most importantly by far... why are you assuming that our stats represent the entire population? That isn't how it works at all! If the People used up all of our stats, we don't magically go down to zero population, after all; so why would something like that be true of Trell?

What stats represent is surplus population - Warriors and Artisans and Merchants and Farmers who can be assigned to other tasks. This is by no means everyone; even in a city which doesn't grow its own food and relies on crafting and trade to earn its upkeep, most of the work is precisely in earning money to pay for the city's food and working/maintaining its industry and infrastructure.

EDIT:

'd

OliWhail · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
We actually mathed it out. It should be affordable without hindering any quests or pressing concerns.

That's reassuring, but "should" is doing a lot of work there, and I'm really concerned that you've been too optimistic about some combination of {the number of actions needed, the chance of additional crises arising, the chance of current crises getting worse, the chance of current crises taking longer than expected to resolve}.

E: and from others' responses, it looks like the math itself may not be on totally solid ground to start with :/

BungieONI · Oct 13, 2017

Random Member said:
Wouldn't these still be possible if the Freehills control Trelli, keep it stable, and we have a good relationship with them?

Yep.

The only things that change much is the stuff in Narrative I think.

veekie · Oct 13, 2017

BungieONI said:
E: Forgot this but AN said it makes things a net harder to administrate. Here.

That wasn't really news though? New provinces always make things harder to administrate. So do new vassals. How much harder depends on how much effort we wanted to put into converting their population.

Raichu1972 said:
When have stats ever been stated to represent population?

Getting True cities doesn't increase our Econ cap, getting block housing won't increase our stat caps, to give two examples.

It has never even been implied that population density is represented by stat caps, otherwise we would have passively been gaining stat caps from our tons of True Cities.

I feel like you're going off of assumptions that have no basis in the actual quest here.

We know for a fact that, back when Txolla was the size of two provinces, one Influence equivalent let us switch them from a Vassal to a Colony. They are larger and more populous than Trell.
We know for a fact that AN had explained that our much smaller investment than one modern Main Influence into developing Dragon Graveyard was sufficient to push back the local beliefs and replace them with core Ymaryn beliefs for three turns.
That would be your mechanical basis.

Narratively this is the equivalent of the American colonies receiving vast amounts of European Culture migrants, which soon displaced the local populations via sheer volume of input from a larger, unified state state.

ETA50M · Oct 13, 2017

Random Member said:
Wouldn't these still be possible if the Freehills control Trelli, keep it stable, and we have a good relationship with them?

It wouldn't because our priests wouldn't travel that far and our logisitics trail will begin from Tinriver not Trelli itself.

BungieONI · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
That wasn't really news though? New provinces always make things harder to administrate. So do new vassals. How much harder depends on how much effort we wanted to put into converting their population.

For some, like me and you, who've played this for a long time. But not for others. Its worth including for those who might not have realized it.

Random Member said:
Wouldn't these still be possible if the Freehills control Trelli, keep it stable, and we have a good relationship with them?

Well actually on second thought it might or might not change. I'd have to sit and really think about it for a bit.

agumentic · Oct 13, 2017

PrimalShadow said:
Once again. "We can pay for this without exploding" is not the same thing as "We get this for free". Every point of stats we use today is a point we can't use in a crisis/emergency, or a point we have to regenerate with actions, or a point that isn't funding GA innovations.

I mean, what a reserves for, if not getting useful things? You could of course argue that Trelli are not worth it, but many think they do.

veekie · Oct 13, 2017

Raichu1972 said:
Ending the trade disruption is just as easy as helping Freehills take Trelli, so I don't consider that to be a valid argument for war.

They also currently have no native trade balance, whatever that means, because the city imploded and they're too busy exploding to trade right now.

Unless the Trelli also start giving us free actions, we don't get a return on investment.

Especially because our actions are rather precious right now, and we already have a bunch of things that we have to juggle without adding another vassal into the mix.

Nope! We actually wind up with a Wealth loss for that!
Freehills will gain the Trelli dominances and leads. Which is just missed income.
Freehills will pay us for a half turn of mercenary deployment. Historically this pays us 0 Wealth according to the precedent with the Thunder Speakers, but using two companies may let us round it up to 1 Wealth.
We will pay Freehills for Straits access(yes, this is Word of AN, we are going to pay them for the privilege of giving them Trell), at a reduced rate. So that means Trade Disruption ends, but we pay out 1 Wealth per turn. Over time they will be facing social pressures to raise the fees from their own social values making it hard to repeatedly suppress their Traders.

OliWhail said:
That's reassuring, but "should" is doing a lot of work there, and I'm really concerned that you've been too optimistic about some combination of {the number of actions needed, the chance of additional crises arising, the chance of current crises getting worse, the chance of current crises taking longer than expected to resolve}.

I don't use absolute terms, because that's ignoring that there are random and unknown factors

But we have a buffer of something like 10 stat points afterwards for each stat outside of Wealth and Econ(which fluctuate too much to predict accurately), and substantial passive incomes on them. This is as safe as it gets stat wise.

BungieONI said:
Yep.

The only things that change much is the stuff in Narrative I think.

And paying Freehills for the privilege. We'd get them their docks and pay them for it!

ctulhuslp · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
Decide between the morality here:
-Ymaryn takes Trell
--Trelli population forcibly resettled with Ymaryn migrants
--Trell culturally destroyed
--Trell physical/genetic population suffers significant attrition due to losses from adapting to new environment.

-Freehills takes Trell
--Trell population put to the sword. Justifiably even.
--Trell culturally destroyed
--Trell physical/genetic population destroyed.

-Ymaryn bails out Trell
--Trell population survives largely intact
--Trell culture preserved, including the nasty slaving part.
--Trell physical/genetic population largely intact.

-Ignore Trell
--Trell suffers major attrition as the pirates and mercenaries fight over the rubble.
--Trell culture suffers attrition/degradation as it moves towards survivalist/martial bent to cope.
--Tree physical/genetic population suffers attrition, largely by their own blades.

Which is more moral?
Can you answer that?

You went full consequentialist while not actually knowing the consequences, only guessing them. That's not how consequentialist ethics works.

Glassware said:
Again, arguing from morality when you're taking the position that most likely leads to the population of Trelli being slaughtered in retribution for the sins of their forebears is a weird look.

I am not arguing from OOC morality perspective, I am talking about IC one. IC we will not be committing shit, and Freehills doing it are regrettable, but do not carry the same impact on collective Ymaryn psyche as forced resettlement of thousands of people would.
And besides, why are you so sure Freehills will go full purge? Was it some AN note? Far as I can see Freehills will move capital here and it will not count as vassal, which makes situation quite different wrt "dificulty of keeping under control".

ETA50M · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
Nope! We actually wind up with a Wealth loss for that!
Freehills will gain the Trelli dominances and leads. Which is just missed income.
Freehills will pay us for a half turn of mercenary deployment. Historically this pays us 0 Wealth according to the precedent with the Thunder Speakers, but using two companies may let us round it up to 1 Wealth.
We will pay Freehills for Straits access(yes, this is Word of AN, we are going to pay them for the privilege of giving them Trell), at a reduced rate. So that means Trade Disruption ends, but we pay out 1 Wealth per turn. Over time they will be facing social pressures to raise the fees from their own social values making it hard to repeatedly suppress their Traders.

I don't use absolute terms, because that's ignoring that there are random and unknown factors

But we have a buffer of something like 10 stat points afterwards for each stat outside of Wealth and Econ(which fluctuate too much to predict accurately), and substantial passive incomes on them. This is as safe as it gets stat wise.

And paying Freehills for the privilege. We'd get them their docks and pay them for it!

Lol can you imagine if the Freehills had a leader who said he'll get Trelli and make the Ymaryn pay for it and we made him a historical legend.

BungieONI · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
And paying Freehills for the privilege. We'd get them their docks and pay them for it!

Personally I don't particularly care.

In part because it is in some ways payment for us not having to deal with the Trelli problems while dealing with other stuff. The rest is me simply not caring on an emotional level.

The Sandman · Oct 13, 2017

The real reason to take Trell is that if we don't, the not-Greeks probably will. And nobody wants that.

As far as trade, I'm looking forward to silk and sugar making their way into the regional economy and immediately blowing it to hell.

Also, wouldn't using our free megaproject on the Triangle Canal deal with our food issues by opening a vast amount of land to more intensive farming? At the very least it should let us change the purpose of food taxes from "feed the core at the periphery's expense" to "make sure that there's always some basic amount of food being grown instead of everyone putting everything into cash crops".

Marlin · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
We actually mathed it out. It should be affordable without hindering any quests or pressing concerns.

What about stability? We need to have at least one secondary EJ devoted to maintaining stability (we need to leave negative stability), and there is still the possibility that the Second Son Crisis can still exist. Especially when as long as no centralization hit occurs, the Second Son Crisis is really close to ending. Delaying the SSC from ending, if advancing the Hmaryn reforms and no centralization hit doesn't do the job for us, might be an issue among the voter base.

Edit:@OliWhail I voted to, not attack, and to attack the Trelli. Going for the Freehills needs some basis, other than Trelli is a problem to take, and Freehills will serve the Ymaryn with devotion and love (with no basis) because the GM said so (this does not mean for eternity). Then there is the problem that if Freehills does gain Trelli, we can never remove them without coming off as hypocrites, and this action would seriously disturb the voters. The communists destroy Democracy for SUPA! POWAH!

ctulhuslp · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
We will pay Freehills for Straits access(yes, this is Word of AN, we are going to pay them for the privilege of giving them Trell),

Could you quote it please? I recall only the one about possibilty of reduction, nothing about impossibility of free passage.

Random Member · Oct 13, 2017

The Sandman said:
The real reason to take Trell is that if we don't, the not-Greeks probably will. And nobody wants that.

You mean the Freehills or the Saffron Islanders? And why would we not want that?

The Sandman said:
Also, wouldn't using our free megaproject on the Triangle Canal deal with our food issues by opening a vast amount of land to more intensive farming? At the very least it should let us change the purpose of food taxes from "feed the core at the periphery's expense" to "make sure that there's always some basic amount of food being grown instead of everyone putting everything into cash crops".

No, Dam. Or else!

OliWhail · Oct 13, 2017

veekie said:
And paying Freehills for the privilege. We'd get them their docks and pay them for it!

I'm perfectly happy paying a friendly polity to administer and stabilize the strait, take the brunt of any invasion, and deal with the rebellious population.

If they decide to raise fees, we can just do what we should have done with Trelli and build a fucking canal.

E: also, I'd love for there to be a scene where their diplomats show up to announce the fees have increased and our king just goes, "No, they haven't. Remind your council that the People broke Trelli to give you your freedom. We wouldn't want to have to break you too. Also we'll literally just dig around you and there's nothing you can do about it."

PrimalShadow · Oct 13, 2017

agumentic said:
I mean, what a reserves for, if not getting useful things? You could of course argue that Trelli are not worth it, but many think they do.

You are allowed to use reserves for things; you just have to account for the cost.

It is the same as having money IRL. If you have $200 in your wallet, you can pay the cost of e.g. getting an expensive dinner for $100; but to figure out if you should, you need to consider the cost of not having that money in the future. You can't just say that "it is fine, because I physically have the money". @veekie repeatedly points out that "we can afford it", but he doesn't talk about what we would be giving up by not having those stats, and that is a gross oversight.

Paths of Civilization

Seven gremlins in a trench coat

Gardener of Human Happiness

Seven gremlins in a trench coat

Seven gremlins in a trench coat

Seven gremlins in a trench coat

So Zetta Slowpoke

Gardener of Human Happiness