Cariyaga
Handsome Gentleperson
- Location
- United States
I'd be down for voting for that. Making nice with him would be good.
Dragon Ball: After the End
- Location
- Actually pretty lost
Yeah, but while it might help with dealing with Dandeer the Vegetans almost certainly don't like Yammar, and that's to say nothing of how much the Gokuns likely despise him. I don't think slightly curtailing Dandeer's options on screwing with us is worth the long-term backlash we'd get from being seen to be buddies with the Butcher of Talt.
And more importantly, whether we figured it out or not.
Ridiculously Average Guy
I'm you, but stronger
- Location
-
[X][SKEET] Join the target shooting brackets.
[X][CHAT] Cynthia Balor. She's nice, you remember, and you'd have fun catching up.
So I was still thinking about Spirit Bomb, and on second thought a spirit drill is still to...unwieldy. What we need to leverage our ki control, and learn a bit about his weird ki folding (or whatever it's called) from Jaffur to make a Spirit Sword.
In something definitely not stolen from Bleach (no sir), we compresses all of that massive power into regular sized blade. It'll be much easier to maneuver with, and the fact that we're not throwing it makes it much harder to miss. The hyperconcentration should also let us cut to nearly anything. Also it gives us a reason to learn Trunks Style!
Also in something definitely stolen from Fate/Stay Night, we can weaken the top of the blade structure to Excaliblast.
[X][CHAT] Cynthia Balor. She's nice, you remember, and you'd have fun catching up.
So I was still thinking about Spirit Bomb, and on second thought a spirit drill is still to...unwieldy. What we need to leverage our ki control, and learn a bit about his weird ki folding (or whatever it's called) from Jaffur to make a Spirit Sword.
In something definitely not stolen from Bleach (no sir), we compresses all of that massive power into regular sized blade. It'll be much easier to maneuver with, and the fact that we're not throwing it makes it much harder to miss. The hyperconcentration should also let us cut to nearly anything. Also it gives us a reason to learn Trunks Style!
Also in something definitely stolen from Fate/Stay Night, we can weaken the top of the blade structure to Excaliblast.
- Location
- Somewhere I shouldn't be
[X][SKEET] Join the target shooting brackets.
[X][CHAT] Mitsuba Roma. You've heard a lot about her, and since you and Dad both want her on the force, you figure you should get to know her.
[X][CHAT] Mitsuba Roma. You've heard a lot about her, and since you and Dad both want her on the force, you figure you should get to know her.
fictionfan
Please sir, may I have some Meows?
- Location
- Tempe, AZ
[x][SKEET] Join the target shooting brackets.
[X][CHAT] Papata Fren. See what your idol has to say about the tournament. Maybe she'll have you do some announcer work with her on the side!
[X][CHAT] Papata Fren. See what your idol has to say about the tournament. Maybe she'll have you do some announcer work with her on the side!
- Location
- United States
[X][CHAT] Papata Fren. See what your idol has to say about the tournament. Maybe she'll have you do some announcer work with her on the side!
[x][SKEET] Join the target shooting brackets.
[x][SKEET] Join the target shooting brackets.
- Location
- Somewhere I shouldn't be
I can't fault your discussion choice, but you are a MONSTER for not wanting to show off our dakka.
j/k, vote how you like. But I do have a compelling counter-argument: explosions are pretty.
- Location
- Rockford, USA
- Pronouns
- They/Them
The booth runners weren't viewing it as two peer opponents, they were viewing it as a civilian with zero combat training challenging a member of the SAS to a duel.
Cariyaga
Handsome Gentleperson
- Location
- United States
How far into debt are the booth runners? I can't imagine Kakara's the only one to have taken that bet. Maybe we should spend our time talking to them instead
- Location
- Somewhere I shouldn't be
How far into debt are the booth runners? I can't imagine Kakara's the only one to have taken that bet. Maybe we should spend our time talking to them instead
Y'know, it's entirely possible that most Saiyans wouldn't bother dropping even 1 zeni on that bet, considering it a waste of a zeni.
They could just be kinda not great at math and predictive modeling.
[X][SKEET] Join the target shooting brackets.
[X][CHAT] Mitsuba Roma. You've heard a lot about her, and since you and Dad both want her on the force, you figure you should get to know her.
[X][CHAT] Mitsuba Roma. You've heard a lot about her, and since you and Dad both want her on the force, you figure you should get to know her.
fictionfan
Please sir, may I have some Meows?
- Location
- Tempe, AZ
Are there many civilians with zero training entering?
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
How would Berra react?
Yes. Honestly... whoever was backing those bets, I feel sorry for them and am worried they're going to singlehandedly trigger an economic crisis just from losing money to all the people who
The thing is, it doesn't take much. It only takes a few people who are addicted to long odds, plus a few people who think "gee, if I take that, I could parlay the petty cash I was planning to spend on a steak-onna-stick into three months' salary."
From the bookie's point of view, the stupidly bad odds aren't just "the odds of Cynthia as we know her beating Mitsuba." They factor in the "unknown unknowns," namely whatever the hell made Cynthia think she'd have a chance against the elite competitors of Exile society in the first place. She must know something the bookies don't, or she wouldn't even have shown up to the tournament.
I bet there's one bookie out of many who did this, and they are SO out of business.
I'm pretty sure there are valid reasons for him to have that reaction the way he did.
Depends. Familiarity with the Masque is a big part of this tournament, and more importantly, with it's now PL requirement its open to most people. I imagine that most of the contestants aren't professionals, but civilians who just want to see how they measure up against their peers, and maybe make the cut.The thing is, it doesn't take much. It only takes a few people who are addicted to long odds, plus a few people who think "gee, if I take that, I could parlay the petty cash I was planning to spend on a steak-onna-stick into three months' salary."
From the bookie's point of view, the stupidly bad odds aren't just "the odds of Cynthia as we know her beating Mitsuba." They factor in the "unknown unknowns," namely whatever the hell made Cynthia think she'd have a chance against the elite competitors of Exile society in the first place. She must know something the bookies don't, or she wouldn't even have shown up to the tournament.
I bet there's one bookie out of many who did this, and they are SO out of business.
It just so happens that due to randomized pairings, that results in some being unlucky enough to go up against the professionals. Hell, some might have joined just for the chance to do so, despite knowing they'll lose badly.
Also, little trick of betting odds: they're not the actual odds. But rather, the odds that are expected to make a profit.
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Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
Not zero combat training. She was at practitioner level even before she had to git gud. It is true that she did it more for the health benefits than as a serious thing though.
Eh, still kinda accurate, because every Saiyan has that.
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fictionfan
Please sir, may I have some Meows?
- Location
- Tempe, AZ
Are there any overweight or out of shape Saiyans?
Yes, canonically. Still strong though.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
I suspect the health benefits of Exile-style martial arts are benefits that come from ki control in and of itself, rather than physical fitness in and of itself. Though I also suspect that having control of one's ki means one has a lot more control over the physical state of one's body.
Suppose that you offer bets on matches between comparative unknowns with a reputation for being at best dilettantes in martial arts, versus well-trained, experienced competitors in the top of their game, at 7000:1 odds. If the true odds of the nobody winning are in fact worse than 7000:1, you will gradually make a profit off of this. But to be confident enough of making a profit that it's worth the huge volatility that results if you lose, you'd have to offer hundreds of thousands of such bets, over hundreds of thousands of separate matches, and never take enough such bets that you could bankrupt yourself paying them.
There's actually a whole industry that works this way: the insurance industry. My car insurance represents me taking on a bet at X:1 odds (for some value of X) that my car won't get wrecked this year. The insurance company is taking the high-probability, low-payoff side of that bet ("yeah, your car probably won't get wrecked") while I take the low-probability, high-payoff side. My incentive for doing so is that while the consequences of me paying my insurance premium are small and predictable, the consequences of a car accident are large and not predictable. The "bookie" (that is, the insurance company) makes a profit in large part because I'm willing to accept an unfavorable bet if it means security from disaster.
But here's the problems.
One, the insurance industry gets away with this because they accept thousands or millions of such bets (insurance policies) every year. They can average out even very low risks, like the chance of a house getting struck by lightning.
Two, the insurance industry employs an entire specialist profession of statistician-financiers whose one job is to figure out the true odds of bad things happening and rationally assess the risks associated with them. Without that, the whole thing would fall apart in short order, because if the true odds of a house getting struck by lightning are one in a hundred thousand, and you estimate them as one in a million, you can lose a lot of money pretty fast.
...
Bookies don't get to issue bets on thousands and thousands of events like this so that they can accept "small payoff 4999 times, huge loss 1 time" situations as something that averages out smoothly over time. For them, it's more like "Maybe I make a tiny profit, and once in a very long while someone who does something like this goes out of business." Most small and medium businesses don't like to take odds like that deliberately.
And, well. As mentioned, you have to be really freaking confident to offer a bet at 7000:1 odds. An event has to be so rare that you could go to similar events every day for twenty years and plausibly expect to never see it happen. I'm pretty sure a good actuary would advise the bookie that just lost three quarters of a million zeni to Kakara something like:
"While the odds of Cynthia, with her known resume, defeating Mitsuba, with her known resume, may seem vanishingly small... That isn't what you're offering odds on here. You're offering odds that a little-known challenger who thinks they should be at a tournament against the world's strongest fighters will defeat one of the elite of the tournament circuit. The odds of that happening, in a world where secretive training is a thing that can happen, may be very low, but I'm pretty sure they're not 7000:1."
Yeah. The thing is, if the betting odds are poorly correlated with the real odds, in the long run you'll lose.
Suppose that you offer bets on matches between comparative unknowns with a reputation for being at best dilettantes in martial arts, versus well-trained, experienced competitors in the top of their game, at 7000:1 odds. If the true odds of the nobody winning are in fact worse than 7000:1, you will gradually make a profit off of this. But to be confident enough of making a profit that it's worth the huge volatility that results if you lose, you'd have to offer hundreds of thousands of such bets, over hundreds of thousands of separate matches, and never take enough such bets that you could bankrupt yourself paying them.
There's actually a whole industry that works this way: the insurance industry. My car insurance represents me taking on a bet at X:1 odds (for some value of X) that my car won't get wrecked this year. The insurance company is taking the high-probability, low-payoff side of that bet ("yeah, your car probably won't get wrecked") while I take the low-probability, high-payoff side. My incentive for doing so is that while the consequences of me paying my insurance premium are small and predictable, the consequences of a car accident are large and not predictable. The "bookie" (that is, the insurance company) makes a profit in large part because I'm willing to accept an unfavorable bet if it means security from disaster.
But here's the problems.
One, the insurance industry gets away with this because they accept thousands or millions of such bets (insurance policies) every year. They can average out even very low risks, like the chance of a house getting struck by lightning.
Two, the insurance industry employs an entire specialist profession of statistician-financiers whose one job is to figure out the true odds of bad things happening and rationally assess the risks associated with them. Without that, the whole thing would fall apart in short order, because if the true odds of a house getting struck by lightning are one in a hundred thousand, and you estimate them as one in a million, you can lose a lot of money pretty fast.
...
Bookies don't get to issue bets on thousands and thousands of events like this so that they can accept "small payoff 4999 times, huge loss 1 time" situations as something that averages out smoothly over time. For them, it's more like "Maybe I make a tiny profit, and once in a very long while someone who does something like this goes out of business." Most small and medium businesses don't like to take odds like that deliberately.
And, well. As mentioned, you have to be really freaking confident to offer a bet at 7000:1 odds. An event has to be so rare that you could go to similar events every day for twenty years and plausibly expect to never see it happen. I'm pretty sure a good actuary would advise the bookie that just lost three quarters of a million zeni to Kakara something like:
"While the odds of Cynthia, with her known resume, defeating Mitsuba, with her known resume, may seem vanishingly small... That isn't what you're offering odds on here. You're offering odds that a little-known challenger who thinks they should be at a tournament against the world's strongest fighters will defeat one of the elite of the tournament circuit. The odds of that happening, in a world where secretive training is a thing that can happen, may be very low, but I'm pretty sure they're not 7000:1."