Hmm, better AND worse than expected.
Couple of stat highlights:
-Diplomacy 16 [+4]
--Intrigue 4
We have plenty of Diplomacy passive for the Colony stunt.
-Economy 6 [-6]
--Sustainable Forests 24/27.5
--Econ Expansion 18 [+6]
We got 14 Econ next main turn.
-Martial 11 (+1) {13}
--Light Cavalry 1
-Naval 2
We actually have a lot of Martial now!
Taking Trell with the Banners can work
-Wealth 8 [-1]
Wealth is okay, but there's a drip out.
-Stability -2 (fearful)
We're 2 Stab from death. 1 Stab from carnage. Actions should take that into account...and we got a -1 incoming. We can't take any Stab options this mid turn, but we will wind up at -1 Stab next main turn if we do nothing
-Centralization 6
Unsurprisingly the goal is distant yet.
Second Son Crisis - Lesser warriors are flowing outward, attacking outsiders and risk bringing retribution to the rest of the People. They must be reined in, but once the seed of the frontier has been planted it is hard to uproot. Causes trouble each turn, may end on its own but can be definitively ended with: Max Legitimacy? and 2 of (Cent Greater than 5?, Martial Less than 5, Yeomen Power 0?); or a Civil War
Second Sons has identified that Cent doesn't need to be maxed anymore, but Martial still needs to be below 5 and Yeomen power still needs to drop.
-Northern Blackriver [0/6]
-Far North-Eastern Redvalley [2/6]
-<Unknown Interior Provinces from Land Reform>
Noting that Land Reform will increase province count.
-Western Wall - 5+ Provinces (4 Being Integrated)
-Greenshore - 3 Provinces (0 Ready to Integrate)
-Gulvalley - 1 Province (1 Ready to Integrate) [Expansion Blocked by Neighbors]
-Heaven's Hawk - 1 Province (1 Ready to Integrate) [March, may not be able to expand peacefully?]
-Txolla - 3 Provinces (2 Ready to Integrate) [Underdeveloped; can gain more provinces internally]
-Tinriver - 1 Province (0 Ready to Integrate) [Mature Trading Post, cannot expand, can be transitioned to colony]
-Thunder Speakers - 1 Province (0 Ready to Integrate) [Seems Low, but they only get 2 actions?]
-Thunder Horse - 1 Province (0 Ready to Integrate) [Same]
-Amber Road - 1 Province (0 Ready to Integrate) [Immature Trading Post, cannot expand]
Western Wall is enormously oversized.
Txolla can probably be eaten soon.
Centralization Tolerances:
[Low Tolerance: "Neutral" - 3]
-Government Base ("Neutral")
-Legacies (-1)
-2 Governor's Palaces (-2)
[High Tolerance: "High" + 5]
-Government Base ("High")
-15 Interconnectivity (+5)
-Legacies (+2)
-10 Provinces (0)
-0 Non-Supported True Cities (0)
-2 Governor's Palaces (-2)
We now know our Centralization tolerances modifiers more explicitly.
Min is 0, we've been there (so the min base is 3 for our model)
Max is at least at 8, if the max is the same as the min. Assuming a range of 5 between min and max at base, we're looking at a max of 16(?!)...so I probably made some bad math here.
Patricians (5*) - Objective: Have Light cavalry above 3 within 2 turns. Success: Free equestrian tech
Guild (6) - Power: Half faction power added to Max Wealth. Objective: Have a Level 2 Ironworks within 3 turns. Success: Free random megaproject AN: Yes, an entire megaproject, in a single turn, no charge
Traders (3*) - Objective: Conquer Trelli within 1 turn. Failure: Civil War (Suppressible)
Yeomen (3*)- Objective: Finish internal reorg within 2 turns. Success: Half current EE converted to Econ, Failure: -2 Econ
Priests (3)- Objective: Have maximum Econ within 3 turns. Success: Free Spiritual Value slot
Urban Poor (3*) - Build 1 more baths within 2 turns. Success: Urban Plague status removed early. Failure: Patricians and Guilds -1 Power, Yeomen +1 Power
These counters iterate at the next mid-turn. The numbers in brackets indicate the general faction strength.
By Crow, the Guilds have gone Berserk.
New value attached to PiA
Division of Power
By preventing the accumulation of power into any single person or faction, the damage of someone throwing a tantrum is mitigated... although it also makes breaking up widespread support harder.
Pros: Faction quest failures have a free negation, requiring two completed quests or Support Faction actions to reset. Unsuppressible failure states become Suppressible
Cons: Addition -1 Stability when suppressing factions
Sweet value, though it makes suppressing Yeomen to be harder.
Colony taxes
[] [SR] Money (Colonies and vassals transfer 1 Wealth/turn each)
[] [SR] Food (Colonies and vassals transfer 1 Econ/turn each)
[] [SR] Warriors (Colonies and vassals transfer 1 Martial/turn each)
[] [SR] Rotate governors (All periphery states with at least one province cost -1 Diplo/turn each turn, have Min. 2 Loyalty)
The taxes are nice, though Governor Rotation is the only one that really addresses issues long term...it'd cost -9 Diplomacy per turn and we only have a +4. If we take up Governor Rotation we'd have to absorb Heaven's Hawks and Gulvalley ASAP.
Anyway current situation, Food would give us +6 Econ income and basically write off the Panem burden. Easy pick here.
[] [HS] Main Build Gymnasium (Does not advance Reforms, +1 Stability)
Wealth 7{8-1}-3 = 4 (guild panic possible), Culture 24-3 = 21, Stability -1{-2-1+2}+1= 0
Not a bad option, but slows things down. We do need Stability badly however, and low Wealth means we'd be forced to take an expensive cash crop next turn or lose it anyways.
[] [HS] Prototype Weapon Storage (Palace Arsenal + Storehouse Annexes, Reforms advance)
Econ 14{6+8}-4 (+4-6) = 10 (-2, 4/9+1(once the storehouse comes in) temp econ damage capacity left), Culture 24-4 = 20
Reasonably safe...if we tax our subordinates in Econ. Otherwise please don't.
[] [HS] Center Command on the Cities (Blackmouth becomes a Free City, Reforms advance)
(at this point I run out of lunchtime, so no more full math)
This costs 2 Econ and 2 Econ Expansion, but reduces the Econ upkeep by 1 and adds another random policy. Neutral option. Doesn't make things worse at least?
[] [HS] Continue raising troops (Main Raise Army, Reforms advance)
Econ -3, Wealth -5. Live dangerously
[] [HS] Prototype Deployment Organization (2xSec Blackmouth Colossal Walls, Reforms advance)
Econ -6, Martial -2. This will bring us dangerously low on Econ next turn even with the Subordinate Food Tax.
[] [HS] Increase Professionalism (Found Mercenary Company, Reforms advance)
Martial -8(which brings us below the Second Son threshold), Wealth drain increased by 1.
This is good if we're taking a swing at Trell I think.
[] [HS] Increase Iron production further (Redshore Ironworks [-3 Econ, -3 Tech, 2 Sustainable Forest used, Expand Econ additional +1 Econ, -1 EE, -1 Tech] + Sec Survey, Reforms advance)
Not sure what's going on here, but this should progress us towards the Guild mission, provided we take the Food tax to you know, not die.
[] [HS] Introduce an elite core (Sec More Spiritbonded + Sec Expand Econ, Reforms advance)
Econ -2, Mysticism -2, Wealth -5, Martial +2, Culture +1, Light Cavalry +1
This is good if we're taking a swing at the Storm Tribes, but the Wealth cost will trigger guild panic.
Army use
[] [Attack] No one
[] [Attack] Hire out mercenary company
-[] [Attack] Red Banner
-[] [Attack] Dragon Banner
-[] [Attack] Both
--[] [Attack] To Trelli
--[] [Attack] To Freehills
--[] [Attack] To Western Ymaryn
[] [Attack] Support Western Ymaryn Against Storm Tribes
[] [Attack] Attempt to take the Trelli Strait
I'd suggest to take the Trelli Strait, based on the astrology. It's an average roll, so we can test it out.
Select new passive policy
[] [Policy] Agriculture (+1 Econ and -1 Econ Expansion/turn)
[] [Policy] Diplomacy (+1 Diplo/turn)
[] [Policy] Skullduggery (+1 Intrigue/turn, -2 Diplo)
[] [Policy] Trade (+1 Wealth/turn)
[] [Policy] Armament (+1 Martial/turn)
[] [Policy] Patronage (+1 Culture/turn)
[] [Policy] Mysticism (+1 Mysticism/turn)
[] [Policy] Industry (+1 Tech/turn)
[] [Policy] City Support (2 True Cities have their maintenance paid for each turn)
[] [Policy] Expansion (So long as there is land to expand into, +1 Econ Expansion/turn, reduces threshold to produce new provinces the longer active)
[] [Policy] Innovation (Extra 2 innovation rolls each turn, -1 Wealth)
[] [Policy] Infrastructure (+1 Free Progress to an infrastructure project (Aqueduct, governor's palace, saltern, etc.)/turn)
[] [Policy] Defence (+1 significant walls/turn) x1
[] [Policy] Special: Forestry (+1 Sustainable Forest and -1 Econ Expansion/2 turns) x1
[] [Policy] Special: Vassal Support (+1 Subordinate while active, increases Loyalty while active at less than full subordinates)
City Support is mandatory unless we're taking the Food Tax.
Still helpful even with the tax too.
Otherwise we hadn't gone wrong with Infrastructure yet. We need Infrastructure policies to build Ironworks for free after all.
So personal vote:
[X] [SR] Food (Colonies and vassals transfer 1 Econ/turn each)
[X] [HS] Prototype Weapon Storage (Palace Arsenal + Storehouse Annexes, Reforms advance)
[X] [HS] Increase Professionalism (Found Mercenary Company, Reforms advance)
[X] [Attack] Attempt to take the Trelli Strait
[X] [Policy] Infrastructure (+1 Free Progress to an infrastructure project (Aqueduct, governor's palace, saltern, etc.)/turn)
[] [Policy] City Support (2 True Cities have their maintenance paid for each turn)
[X][Policy] Special: Vassal Support (+1 Subordinate while active, increases Loyalty while active at less than full subordinates)
Food: This is simply to offset the Panem.
Weapon Storage: This is kind of important to the reforms for arms control...and the thing with arms control is that if you don't have it controlled from the start, it's going to be hard to get the weapons back AFTER they've gone out.
Merc: To try to resolve Second Son
Trelli Strait: Based on the prediction this is a good time to do it. We have the Martial to do it and during the Mid Turn nobody else is going to arrive yet.
Infrastructure: To progress the Guild quest without running our Econ dry.
City Support: This is approval voting in case we wind up with a nasty combo of econ costs and need it to not die.
Vassal Support: N1eeded for Trell room
