Econ Projection assuming the current winning composite of
[PSN] Bit more black soil (Sec Black Soil, -1 Centralization)
[Conq] Take the northern lowlands (Thunder Speakers become vassal, Txolla annex additional territory, gain Ruined Thunder Horse as vassal, remainder fragment, -4 Econ and 4 temporary Econ damage from supporting wrecked vassal)
[Refugee] Send out runners that you have food and intact farmland (6 temporary Econ damage, -6-8 Econ Expansion, -1 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ next turn)
[PttS] 0 Stability
[Diplo] Send out reassurances (Sec Trade Mission to Khemetri, Trelli, and Harmurri)
Base stats:
Econ: 18 (+1) [-3+14]
EE: 11 [+3-14]
Black Soil: +2-3 EE. Conservatively, lets say 2 EE.
Conquest: -4 Econ, 3 EE refunded due to true cities. -4 additional temp Econ damage.
Refugee: Gain 6-8 Econ next turn, at the cost of 6-8 EE damage now, plus 6 temp damage now. Pessimism in this case is losing EE and gaining Econ, so assume 8.
Diplo: no effect on Econ.
So the result becomes:
Econ: 14 (+9) [-3+14] {4}
EE: 8 [-3+14]
Then, if we spend no Econ next turn, we would go to 14+9+11 = 34 Econ and 8-11 = -3 EE. Of course, overflow means that it would actually be 18 Econ + 16 (overflow to other stats), and EE would be 0 (since we get 3 EE refunded by true cities). HOWEVER, the truth is that we would trigger the overflow-to-colonies bit from Population Explosion, so our acutal result would be more like 18 Econ + 8 (overflow) with 8 EE.