[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

With the mention that the New Trails would get the benefit of the heroic administration heir I'll change from Grand Sacrifice.

------------------

For those voting for Omega's plan ... why? You're wasting a valuable technology upgrade, particularly you're wasting an administrative technology upgrade while voting for an option that unlocks a city (vastly increased complexity suddenly, hey remember that tax crisis?) and has a chance to overcrowd which is bad but is even worse when you consider there is currently a disease epidemic happening. Those two don't mix well at all. Thirdly, last time we got warning marks when our economy reached 12. From that alone, we'd be entering crisis mode.

If you want to go full silly mode taking the -3 stability option, and the administrative technology option would be considerably more efficient as it's likely enough population will move there to generate a city during the heroic leaders life anyway just show a little patience. This way you get an administrative technology to help manage that city that will emerge, you don't get the immediate overcrowding during a pandemic, and can build aqueducts next turn to boost the amount of population it can support safely.
 
[X] Random Construction tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

Changed my mind.

Especially right after we've discovered how to Stone Good.

From another quest, cold stoned killers. (because for no other reason that it rhymes!)
 
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I think there is some potential for synergy in a person who was overseeing a major stoneworking project building a lot of roads.

Also, consider that in Omegahugger's plan a single GG proc would give you Stab 2.5. Yes, gaining stab.

Probability is 1/10 to 1/20 (let's say 1/15); so, result is ~0.5+2*(1/15) = 0.63. Color me unconvinced.

Around 20% I think. We have 5.5 opportunities for it to proc.
"Tiny" is 5-10%, IIRC.
 
For at least one activation out of the entire turn's stability losses, maybe.

Given just how powerful AGG's effect is, highest credible single-event trigger rate is 12.5%. And I wouldn't assume it's that high; the math works out as a 25% discount on all intentional stability hits at that rate. 5% is entirely credible and still quite valuable.

We'd be gaining at least four action-equivalents out of it, after all. Two if we were already at max stability.
 
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For those voting for Omega's plan ... why? You're wasting a valuable technology upgrade
In exchange for gaining one. Large incursions of refugees give us techs, and we know that our neighbors have some we could use.

Thirdly, last time we got warning marks when our economy reached 12. From that alone, we'd be entering crisis mode.
True City should increase our econ cap in much the same way as new settlements. Even if not though, post-cap econ isn't a crisis. It would have negative effecis, but not crisis as far as we know.
If you want to go full silly mode taking the -3 stability option, and the administrative technology option would be considerably more efficient as it's likely enough population will move there to generate a city during the heroic leaders life anyway just show a little patience. This way you get an administrative technology to help manage that city that will emerge, you don't get the immediate overcrowding during a pandemic, and can build aqueducts next turn to boost the amount of population it can support safely.
If someone gets a bandwagon on this, I'll sign on. It sounds reasonable as well. I do like the True City bit though; it seems to bode well for making this period truly remarkable.
 
[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
Choose the next heir

[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])

(changed my vote) we have better odds of managing the trait using both study health and metal next turn
[X] Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability)

Refugee policy
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
 
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I think there is some potential for synergy in a person who was overseeing a major stoneworking project building a lot of roads.



Probability is 1/10 to 1/20 (let's say 1/15); so, result is ~0.5+2*(1/15) = 0.63. Color me unconvinced.


"Tiny" is 5-10%, IIRC.
I was assuming 5%. She asked me the chance of a single proc happening, which is around 20% for a 5% individual chance.

I was describing an upside, along with the no-luck option.
 
For those voting for Omega's plan ... why? You're wasting a valuable technology upgrade
Actually, you have a good point. Doing the math out, we don't actually need that extra +1. edit: The extra admin skill could help communication with the march or help reduce the problems of the immigrant wave.
[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability)
[X] Everyone can come on in! (-4 Stability, chance of further loss, +11-15 Econ, further effects, chance of over crowding, Upper Valleyhome attains True City status)

This does mean that without GG we drop to either -1 or -2 stability. We switch policy to Restoration and they'll most likely use Restoration of Order which is modified by our heroic admin to both give us additional effects and make it much more likely that we get the +2 than normal.

And GG shouldn't be discounted either. It has a chance of triggering on Restoration of Order and has 5-6 chances of triggering right now. Given 6 trigger opportunities, we have a 47% chance of it triggering if it's 10% per trigger and a 27% if it's 5%. A single trigger would give us +2 stability.

@Academia Nut
If we're at Stability 3 do we get an automatic switch off of Policy:Restoration?
 
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*looks at thread collectively flipping it's shit*

Hmmmm...

Well. It seems people don't like the new belief we got. I can see why. *hisses at Weapons of the Gods*
Preeettty shit. I will however say that it is one of those catastrophes we can deal with.

Electing Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo]) I think should give a + to getting rid of this. She did not believe it herself so if the top says it isn't Symphony should help oust it.

Magwyna was obviously opposed to this belief, but she felt that was because it didn't make sense to her given that the metal barren Xohyssiri seemed to suffer from more plagues than the metal rich people to the far west. Unfortunately, given that she very much had an involvement in setting up the mine, pretty much everyone assumed that she wanted to downplay things for political reasons, which was frustrating given that she was already having problems on the council relating to her relative youth and gender.
It's a good thing the thread likes her so much. It's concerning it might be from fanatical anti-sexist/Stallion Tribes sentiment like @Karugus is concerned about, but it is pushing our egalitarian values so that's good. Countering sexism is a good and noble cause but shooting ourselves in the foot by going on witchhunts is less good. So have some caution? If we shoot ourselves over it then they win.
Also she's an artisan. Electing an Artisan lady is a really nice thing, it encourages women artisans so egalitarian opportunities are encouraged.


Main Study Health + Main Study Metal. I am concerned with this combo for what is probably a silly reason. How are our shamans going to combo this? Most extreme negative thing I can think of is they grind up copper and throw it at people with whooping cough/TB/whatever the hell it is. That's... not gonna help and probably make it worse. Most positive thing I can think of is they have the sick in the same room as some metal and give them various treatments and the sick get better. Then they do treatments of the sick with no metal in the room, and there you go metal is probably unconnected to the cough. Both of these are unlikely to occur, at least I think so. The average somewhere in between these might make progress. All in all I'd rate it as a neutral on what it does for getting rid of the Belief. There is also the fact that AN mentioned that Study Health especially by itself will not help.

Adjusted since there is a demand, but study health is unlikely to help with any of the immediate problems.
The combo might though. *many shrugs*


I think opening another mine and having no disease crop up at the same time would hit it very very hard so that gets it a circumstantial ++. Very much at the whims of RNJesus but so is the other. Going for both with a few turns in between should help. Which happens first is up in the air and should be discussed more fully.


More about what happened this turn.

Gardens completing is very very tasty. Num yum. *pats belly* We get "True City Status unlocked". Little idea what that means but it sounds like a good and a bad. Valleyhome is already on the scale of Uruk, but this would mean bumping it to something like early Rome. Which would be very Prestigious, but it sadly has crowding issues and good ole Pestilence would have a field day. Getting this slowly should be a target.

Local Copper Supply attained is very very yummy. *sighs in glee* Just so every one is clear on where this puts us in comparison to our neighbors:
The Metal Workers of course have it and have for a rather long time(understatement). We now use copper tools ubiquitously like they do.
The Thunder Speakers(our Thunder Friends according to Omegahugger) are getting brass from the east, but it sounds decorative and a luxury item. They do not use any form of metal tools.
The Highlanders import metal from the direction of the SHP but from the evidence it does not seem they have widespread metal tool use.
The Nomads certainly do not have it. They have little of the background tech and little desire for it beyond as a luxury.
The Xohyssiri have brass like the Thunder Speakers, but we have no indication they have metal tools.
The Southern Hill People if they are the source of the HK's copper(there has been some confusion over this so I'm not 100% but someone will inevitably inform me) then they probably have widespread tool use to, otherwise it is someone else.
The Swamp People are a vassal of the Xoh so we can consider their tech levels to be about the same.
The Eastern Thunder Horse(Who still follow the "Don't attack the Ymaryn" pact we made if I understand correctly) have access to brass. Are they forging it, or getting it from someone else? If they are forging it, then they also likely have wide spread metal tools.

So we are ahead of most of the big players in our immediate circles. What we do with that is up to the majority of course.
The new possible innovations are nice too.

Random Admin tech upgrade looks like that Cent thing we've been slowly dying for, for some time. At least we can hope it is. Whatever it is will certainly help. Construction tech would be nice too, not sure of the full benefits, it being random but it can really only hurt in opportunities lost. Free Holy Site expansion seems like a wild card, might entrench the Weapons of the Gods. Or it might not. *shrug*
Reassuring the People is pretty straight forward, probably not going to have an effect on the belief. Or the plague. Works well with the higher stab hits.

Baby Boom ending is sad because it means our kids are dying but we've expected this for sometime now. And we can get it back eventually, it's in the system so to speak so not out of reach forever.

Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability) will null out our probable stab losses. We also have the Econ to do it. It certainly helps, but how it's done might be sketchy. Burning copper tools sounds kinda dangerous for fumes reasons and sets back tool use by some narrative amount. Who knows if they would do that though. With our new Belief I can see it.

Study Metal (-2 Mysticism, -1 Econ, -1 Stability, chance of new discoveries) Not certain what this would do. It might help, but it probably won't by itself.
Study Health (-1 Econ, greater chance of new discoveries) Won't help by word of AN. Need other ingredients, you require additional pylons etc.
New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects) This pushes forward on solving The Marcher Integration problem. These guys are probably not gonna get really uppity in a turn, but next mid turn or the project turn after that(two full turns from now) seems likely. This gives us more time and solves the problem. Doesn't help Stability much, which is a little ehh *waggles hand*.

Focus on Growth (+2 Econ). Hrm. Kinda a out there proposition. Helps get Baby Boom back, probably won't for now though. Might have a hidden Stability effect. Fuuuuuck if I know, I'm throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks at this point.

Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ). The nice thing about our traits if i understand things right is this equation works out to. AN rolls for if we even have a loss, CA triggers and we have another roll, and Greater Good triggers another roll. So three chances, or two if I fuxed it up. I really like our traits. *pets CA and TGG with a dopey smile*. It may give us the least but do we truly need more? A lot of our speculative next turn actions are minimal in the Econ cost, at most something like 4 loss if we choose festival and something else expensive (Boats maybe?). Refugee problem of integration again going in the background. Though un-integrated refugees might dislodge our belief faster and all of these actions accept some.


Let it be known that you have room (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ). More econ. Two or one chances to negate it. More un-integrated refugees. Chances of further loss are ungood.

You have lots of room (-2 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ, chance of further effects) Yet more Econ, we'd be probably covered for what we need to do to fix Stability and some of our personal projects. Bit risky. Also friends. Probably a bigger chance of further loss, which is definitely ungood. Further effects might be that the influx dislodges the belief or lays down the bedrock for that to begin. Otherwise I have no guesses on what they might be.

Encourage people to come to a safe place (-3 Stability, chance of further loss, +8-11 Econ, further effects) Lot's of friends! Lot's of Econ. Probably an even bigger chance of further loss, which is really definitely ungood. Further effects might be that the influx dislodges the belief or lays down the bedrock for that to begin. Again not sure of any thing else, or even able to speculate.

Everyone can come on in! (-4 Stability, chance of further loss, +11-15 Econ, further effects, chance of over crowding, Upper Valleyhome attains True City status) All the friends! Hi there certain negative Stab, how are you today? All the Econ. Further losses are a very very ungood. Valleyhome becomes a True City. Does that mean a constant flow of foreigners? Over crowding is bad because it gives Mr. Pestilence Ideastm​. Further effects is like "I have no clue!" More space saving building? *all the shrugs* We are literally eating a country's worth of Econ from three different locations.

Also the later two options almost definitely will push us to red Econ. I think that would be bad.


So them's the breaks. I think that to get a good hit in on dislodging the Belief right now, and keep our pants on while doing it, we need to do this:

Elect Magwyna Queen. Direct + to dislodging it.
Random Admin Tech Upgrade. Not a direct help, but it lets us do more shit that can help. Admin is like logistics. It makes the world go round.
New Trails. While the Marchers may not be getting ready to crawl out our mouths by way of our asses, this gives more time and makes progress on the issue.
Let it be known that you have room. This could be negated potentially two times, so threat is lessened.

However I like the sheer insanity of @Omegahugger's plan so I am okay with it winning. Just a glance makes me think the math might actually work out. I actually kinda like it more than the current plan that's winning, but I'll be okay with either.

Actually how much Stab will we end on from their plan? Let's look.

2 + 1(Reassure) - 1(Magwyna) + 2(Grand Sac) - 4(Everyone!) = 0. Well I'll be damned. Disregarding the ordering it will work. Also I believe CA has a chance to reduce the -4 to -3. Could be wrong though.
Regarding the ordering:

Well Magw is a Hero Admin so she can't crit fail. That means at least Grand Sac will come before the Refugees.

2 - 1(Magwyna) = 1 Stab. 1 + 1(Reassure this goes together with her coming into office) = 2. 2 + 2 = 4 down to 3. Uh oh. 3 - 4 = -1.
Hrmm...
If Grand Sac comes before then we have a slight problem. It would have to come after the refugees if Reassure came as she went into office.

The best way would be

Mawyna > Reassure > Refugees > Grand Sac. Leaps from -2 to 0. If CA bumps the 4 to a 3 then we end at 1 Stab.

Sadly bookutons of Econ though. Gonna be a problem.
 
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I think we should try to get silver or something. It's supposed to by a little antibacterial. That should help prove that metal isn't cursed.
 
I think we should try to get silver or something. It's supposed to by a little antibacterial. That should help prove that metal isn't cursed.
Not really...

Copper is biostatic, and anti-bacterial in a similar fashion.

The real problem of Observance is that it champions "Correlation implies Causation". We pulled up metal, everyone got sick, ergo metal makes people sick.
Trying for silver because it is anti-bacterial and we use it in pipes or something(which sounds kinda silly because of rarity) and sickness goes away might disprove it. Using silver, like colloidal silver drops, to heal is so far out of our intentional bailiwick with the Belief that it would basically never happen because of this thought process for our shamans "Silver is a metal. *reference Weapons of the Gods*. It must be poison!"

What would do it would be pulling up silver, and no one gets sick. That is direct disproof of the Weapons of the Gods.
 
Ok then. We're safe in terms of hitting -4 because of heroic admin rolls. We end up at either -2 or -1 stability.
Next turn we make a new province (to eliminate the overcrowding and give us an action), start Policy:Restoration, and have one action available (either a diplo action or something to spend our econ on). Our provinces get two mains. We get a pretty much guaranteed +2 stability, likely +3 or even +4. (I'd guess {M} Grand Sacrifice, {M} Restore Order, though they might do a festival instead of one of them).

Restore Order is especially amazing since it gives bonus effects with high-admin heroes and its rolls get modified by the admin skill, so we are much more likely to get +2 stability from it along with some sort of corruption reduction.

This puts us at absolute worst case 0 stability at the end of next turn, but much more likely we'll be back at 2 or 3. Restoration is a pretty bullshit policy as long as we have the econ to feed it. And boy, can we feed it. Next turn we'll be at 14 to 18 econ.

I was originally super worried due to the risks of doing this with normal admin and I thought that she wouldn't be modifying the rolls until after she was king. Since she apparently starts modifying them as soon as she's elected, we're golden to do this.
 
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Inserted tally
Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 10, 2017 at 4:23 PM, finished with 31172 posts and 103 votes.
 
@Academia Nut
Would it be reasonable to do a vote reset again like last time? There were a lot of changes this vote: we got +1 econ, gained the "Study Health" option (though we're not taking that one), and we were missing crucial information about the heroic admin rolls being immediately applied.
I'd consider the latter one especially roughly equal in importance to the change of The Garden giving +1 stability, and we all saw how that one turned out.

Without the heroic admin skill we had a ~20% chance of dying to the refugee wave by my estimations. Thanks to the heroic admin skill being immediately applied, it's awfully close to 0% if not actually 0.
 
Well it appears the belief is centered on the mining and smelting metal with no problem in using. So we somehow setup a colony like March on mines? That way we walk around the issue and maybe increase specialization of our society.

Of course we haven't got an option for that, yet.

Snappy name for the unborn colony "sky forge".
 
I don't think taking in tons of refugees with all of the potential problems is a good idea right now. There are possible overcrowding issues, along with integration, and possible True City issues....it just doesn't make sense to me when we know that the Stallion tribes are going to be an issue at some point, probably soon. AND we have to deal with the Debilitating Belief in the near future. We shouldn't try to do too much at once.
 
I can't tell if everyone's trolling by switching to Omega's plan or not, but if you aren't then I'm afraid it's waaaaaaay too late in the vote to have any chance of overtaking the lowest refugee income - you shouldn't switch to Grand Sacrifice in anticipation of the biggest influx, it's a choice of "what action do we take with smallest influx and Hero diplomancer/admin".

@Academia Nut
Would it be reasonable to do a vote reset again like last time? There were a lot of changes this vote: we got +1 econ, gained the "Study Health" option (though we're not taking that one), and we were missing crucial information about the heroic admin rolls being immediately applied.
I'd consider the latter one especially roughly equal in importance to the change of The Garden giving +1 stability, and we all saw how that one turned out.

Without the heroic admin skill we had a ~20% chance of dying to the refugee wave by my estimations. Thanks to the heroic admin skill being immediately applied, it's awfully close to 0% if not actually 0.
I mean, unless we do a vote reset.
 
Hmm. Maybe we're looking at it the wrong way, we can't vaccinate people, and we can't quarantine the disease totally- but if it's airborne that means it's inhaled right?

Maybe making Carrion Eaters/Midwifes wear honey soaked cloths covering their mouths and noses might potentially help? I mean, that's basically the only idea I have as for how we could treat whooping cough without the enormous leap to vaccination.
@Academia Nut
Would it be reasonable to do a vote reset again like last time? There were a lot of changes this vote: we got +1 econ, gained the "Study Health" option (though we're not taking that one), and we were missing crucial information about the heroic admin rolls being immediately applied.
I'd consider the latter one especially roughly equal in importance to the change of The Garden giving +1 stability, and we all saw how that one turned out.

Without the heroic admin skill we had a ~20% chance of dying to the refugee wave by my estimations. Thanks to the heroic admin skill being immediately applied, it's awfully close to 0% if not actually 0.
Can we not? It's a bad precedent to set and there's an overwhelming majority against it so far.
 
I see... the 'Stability before Reason' faction is at it again.

As the only real difference the tally shows is Grand Sacrifice vs Trails... that means Huggers plan is being actively courted in an attempt to force stability over actually working towards solving an issue.
In exchange for gaining one. Large incursions of refugees give us techs, and we know that our neighbors have some we could use.
At the cost of risking diluting The People to unrecognizablity and losing most of the social structure. Not worth it.
Without the heroic admin skill we had a ~20% chance of dying to the refugee wave by my estimations. Thanks to the heroic admin skill being immediately applied, it's awfully close to 0% if not actually 0.
I don't think you understand what kind of reaction eating half of HK would have to them... that would force a war and likely a civil war from culture shift.
 
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