Paths of Civilization

Soo
Can anybody tally ?
I'm curious

Hm.
Yeah, now that I've calmed down, I am ready to vote. With a minor thing to nitpick:

Powerofmind said:

You voted for no stability-increasing actions last turn. You are literally not allowed to complain. As for your edit, that is in no way stated fact, that is merely an assumption.

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You do realize that I complained about my choice being wrong first and foremost, right?

ctulhuslp said:

Ugh.
And that's why we need to take RH action whevnever our stability drops lower than 1, at worst, or rather 2.
I am not voting right now because I am angry at myself for not pushing for it and angry at everyone else because I am sure as fuck nobody would agree with taking RH when we could.

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I think I am allowed to be angry at myself without your input, thank you very much.

Now, about the vote...I am mostly fine with the winning votes, with the exception of Ward:

[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)

Reason: the reason for not sharing seems to be people not wanting to give away inoculation to the Dead Priests.
However...well, thing is, they are unlikely to successfully pick it up without us straight-up teaching them, because it is pretty hard. Like, it is way harder than, say, massed warfare - and we did not manage to pick it up despite DPs using it for centuries. Technological spying is pretty hard, and inoculation is advanced enough concept for the era DPs are unlikely to even believe it from the rumours, let alone learn it without us telling them how to do it.

EDIT: And we have Blackbirds and several xenophilic traits, so we are the best at acquiring foreign tech in the area. I seriously doubt anyone not directly taught by us has a shot at fulfilling any serious inoculation project.

Vote Tally : Paths of Civilization | Page 667 | Sufficient Velocity
##### NetTally 1.7.3.2

[x] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
No. of Votes: 2

[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
No. of Votes: 1

[X] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
No. of Votes: 1

[X] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
No. of Votes: 1

[X] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
No. of Votes: 1

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Task: Harmony

[X][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
No. of Votes: 35

[x] [Harmony]Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
No. of Votes: 27

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Task: King

[x] [King]Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
No. of Votes: 42

[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
No. of Votes: 19

[X][King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
No. of Votes: 4

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Task: Refugee

[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
No. of Votes: 25

[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
No. of Votes: 14

[x] [Refugee]Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
No. of Votes: 12

[X][Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
No. of Votes: 6

[X] [Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
No. of Votes: 4

[X] [Refugee] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
No. of Votes: 2

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Task: Sacrifice

[x] [Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
No. of Votes: 29

[X] [Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
No. of Votes: 29

[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
No. of Votes: 8

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Task: Ward

[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
No. of Votes: 37

[x] [Ward]] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
No. of Votes: 13

[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
No. of Votes: 9

[X][Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
No. of Votes: 6

[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic
No. of Votes: 1

Total No. of Voters: 69

[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)

Also, about the update title: this is EU4 reference. In that game, DOOM was an Aztec mechanic and 'A messenger with the news of DOOM arrives' was a sign that their religion fucked them again, though I can't remember specific ways in which it did it.
Which probably means Dead Priests are going to have a trouble....
Megacity. With walls to keep all the disease in.
Oh they are so fucked. That's hilarious...especially if we combine potential expansion with the promise of inoculation for those who side with us. Heh.

[X] [Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee]Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)

Reasoning: Sacrifice Everything mostly for the immediate stability, although I am a bit concerned about a precedent it may start.
Harmony because immediate -1 Stability is unusable in the circumstances.
Ward because odds of anybody not taught directly by us stealing the tech are almost nonexistent for a bunch of reasons, and the promise to ward the friendlies from the plague is one hell of a diplomatic carrot.
King...honestly, it would be one hell of an inspiring tale in the future. Plus a boon to our Honourable Death which drives it further away from the war as the most honourable. I think it will do interesting and overall good things to our values and mythology, and willing self-immolation is not really the same as human sacrifice, so I am not too worried about this.
Refugees...I don't even know; I like to be generous fluff-wise, and I like getting net 2-4 Economy when others are trying to not die as a civilisation. With +2 immediate stability it won't kill us.

EDIT: About doom:

Each Nahuatl state has a ticking Doom value that increases every year at a base rate of one Doom per owned province. High Doom increases technology costs and idea costs and should the value ever reach 100 the Nahuatl state will be forced into taking drastic measures to avert Doomsday. The ruling family will be sacrificed, killing the ruling monarch and heir and replacing them with a 0/0/0 ruler. In addition, all of the country's monarch power is lost and any and all subject states break away as the nation descends into chaos. As if that wasn't enough, if the doomed state has gained any religious reforms, up to two of these will be lost.

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Lol seeing as DPs are part Aztec expies, I am half-expecting their vassals to give them a middle finger after this.

[X][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[x] [Refugee]Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[X] [Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
You know what, screw it all. I'm just gonna throw out my votes then walk away from the thread. The arguing and the wondering are not doing good things for me.

May Crow guide you and Gioa lead you.

[X] Powerofmind

Andres110 said:

@zamin, we need one of your analysis posts! Please come to us in our time of need!

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AND LO! I RETURN TO ANSWER THE CALL!

Hello everyone and welcome back to another episode of "zamin over-analyses everything". I was kinda planning on giving it up cause I just don't have time, but it's the weekend and someone actually asked for this specifically, so... eh.

Twythulmyn had had many things planned. He had been ordering the expansion of the warriors and militia, left ill at ease by the territorial expansions of southern neighbours, he had sent out a mission to the Thunder Horse to see how they were doing and if they needed support, while also trying to make sure that connections of trade and friendship were further developed. He had been frustrated by the news that a group of boats had gone scouting to the south of Redcoast and disappeared, even as the pastures in the northern hills were expanded.

He had been listening to the happenings in the south with some interest and anxiety, as the Highlanders and Dead Priests seemed to settle into a period of quiet consolidation, letting their subject villages squabble on their behalf while they turned inward. He had especially wondered what the Dead Priests might be up to, with word of increased trade flowing out of their city, and of changes as to how they were dealing with their slaves, but as it was all coming third or fourth hand it was hard to be sure what might be happening. Traders had also brought news of the chief who had caused all the trouble among the Metal Workers also somehow succeeding in his ambitions and unifying his people and Twythulmyn had wondered at sending another expedition their way to congratulate the man, solidify ties, and possibly also learn more about the stones that were mysteriously made into metal.

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Ok, from the top:

- We can see the effects of the last turn's choices here. Twythulmyn's been expanding the military, sending out trade missions and expanding the economy. It also looks like one of the sub-chiefs tried to send out some boats on an exploration mission and flubbed the roll
- Outside our borders, the Highlanders and Dead Priests have settled into a state of Cold War, letting their allied vassals scrap with each other while they concentrate on building up internally
- We get notice that our information network isn't really good cause it's all third/fourth hand stuff. Maybe we could try sending more traders or Blackbirds down there later to get a clearer picture of what's going on
- Further abroad, the Metal Workers have apparently gotten Centralized under that one aggressive chief we heard about earlier. Kudos to him, I guess. The only problem is that copper might get more expensive since our traders can't just go to another village if they don't like current prices

He had so many plans, and then a stranger appeared in the sky. He had been a boy when the comet had appeared in the sky and Bynwyn had calmed the populace, had told them not to be afraid, and had more or less countered the magic of the Spirit Talkers. The thing was though that you kind of had to look for that comet, which while unsettling when you found something strange in the sky it wasn't immediate and obvious that it was there.

Not this monster. Brighter than the Morning Star and with tails that trailed across the sky, it had slowly drifted across the sky for two seasons now and seemed to be getting brighter and brighter with each passing night. Utter terror gripped the People, and while there were many shamans these days, there were fewer who studied the celestial spirits than ever and they had no answers as to what to do to appease this monster in the sky. Unseasonal storms of shooting stars blazed across the sky, as if the stars themselves were at war and were firing their bows of fire and thunder for or against this intruder. And then, as above so below, during the summer months there was a mass outbreak of the scourging disease among the lowlands, cutting down thousands and turning the entire region into a frothing frenzy as villages turned upon each other, both out of fear that they might be harbouring the 'Star Pox' and in an attempt to satiate the panicked desire for blood of the Dead Priests.

Trade to the south ground to a halt and the northern plains were equally thrown into madness from the fear gripping the nomads there. Only the sea routes to the west and the land routes to the east remained relatively clear, and many sailors and traders refused to head out under the baleful influence of the serpent in the sky.

As for the cause? Who knew! It could simply be the spirits had decided that humanity was corrupt and had sent an agent to destroy them all, it could be something that did not involve humans at all and was a purely spiritual matter, the People and everyone else caught up in the squabbles of the divine.

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So now we have "COMET OF DOOM 2: THE DOOMENING", only this time we don't have high Mysticism or a Mystic Hero to go "nah, brah, I got this".

We actually see the problem of low Mysticism in this line:

while there were many shamans these days, there were fewer who studied the celestial spirits than ever and they had no answers as to what to do to appease this monster in the sky.

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So we have a lot of shamans in the Holy Sites, but they're all too busy taking care of cows to do any star gazing. When the comet came, they basically shrugged and went "Sorry, we got no idea what to do either". Which, of course, made all our people freak out because holy shit the sky's going crazy and nobody knows what's going on and we're all gonna die and AHHHHH!

And then, of course, the plague descends upon the lowlands like the hammer of god and proceeds to smash EVERYONE. Except us, of course, because we have HOLY COWS to protect us.


... if anyone asks, we totally planned to finish that Mega Project just before the plague hit. Definitely. Planned it all out and everything.

It's pretty awesome, actually. In this time period, starvation and disease are a massive problem, and we've more or less countered both of these things thanks to our ridiculous farming and cow herds. I get the feeling that all the other groups are going to be super salty/freaked out when they realize that we weren't really affected by the mega plague that hit the lowlands.

... I kinda want to do a Negaverse omake now.

No, focus dammit! Analysis first, Negaverse later!

Ahem. So. Moving on...

Our people are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, but down in the lowlands, people are apparently dropping like flies. It's not just the plague - lots of villages are killing off each other out of paranoia while the Dead Priests are panicking and going "Shit! We need to sacrifice EVERYONE!!!"

To the north, the nomads are shitting their pants as well, though I'm not sure if they've gotten hit by the plague too.

Obviously, all this chaos is bad for trade. But wait! We have sea routes, which means we don't have to give a fuck about our neighbor's problems because we can sail right past them anyway! Of course, it turns out that our sailors are a superstitious lot (who woulda thought, eh?) and refuse to go out to sea while the DOOM COMET is flying overhead.

Of those theories that were being floated that the People were able to do anything about, the dominant ones were that the People had somehow angered the spirits with their warding magic against the scourging plague, and that the Thunder Horse had somehow intruded upon matters they did not understand with their star axe and settling in the valley where the Spirit Talkers once lived. Of the first, while there were some who called that the warding magic itself had angered the spirits and they were sending an emissary to correct the imbalance, many others felt that the issue was simply that they had horded magic that could save lives and thus they were being informed that if they had such miracles they had to share the magic with others. For the second, there was less that could be done there, although the trade mission to the Thunder Horse were being sent runners to try to get more information out of them, and Twythulmyn was tempted to join them in an attempt to get more information and potentially get the Thunder Horse to act on whatever might be going on.

Although, grimacing, there was also an idea he had and had quietly run past the Chief Shaman to see if it was viable - it technically was, but he hadn't voiced it to anyone else yet - and that was to attempt to leverage his charm and diplomacy directly. He had never considered himself particularly selfless - he had technically got the position of king by being the opposite -, but for his family, for his People... if the shamans and other chiefs thought it might work, he would offer up his life. The only method the Chief Shaman thought might work though was immolation and incineration, so that when his spirit detached from his body it would be carried quickly up to the sky where he might entreat with the comet and other celestial spirits and beg that they be merciful to the people. Beyond that, the People were going to be making a mass sacrifice to their ancestral spirits in an attempt to gain their protection.

And then of course there was the question of all the people seeking refuge from the lowlands...

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And here we can see our people trying to figure out who's to blame for all this crap. Interestingly enough, one of the viewpoints is that we're the ones at fault because we never bothered to go out and tell everyone else how amazing our cows were. Harmony/Protective Justice traits kicking in?

Also, holy shit our Diplo Hero is willing to let himself get burned alive because he believes that it'll help fix the situation. I think this is a result of our Honorable Death, Harmony and Nobility in Humility traits mixing together. I am both impressed and really freaked out at his dedication. Even if he doesn't go through with it, our people are planning a lot of sacrifices anyway.

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STATS


Uh, yeah. Sorry I don't have last turn's stats, but this alone is quite interesting.

Our Diplomacy's dropped a bit, though we might be able to raise it up again in the future depending on what happens. Economy is (I think) still the same as last turn, though our sub-chiefs apparently aren't going to Expand Economy again this turn, the lazy scrubs. On the other hand, our Martial has been boosted up to 6, which is a decent number. I'd still like to raise it in the future, but right now I don't think it's a super big priority.

Onto Stability, we've dropped down to -1 (anxious) because people are freaked out about the COMET OF DOOM and we don't have a Mystic Hero around to counter its effects this time. Legitimacy is still maxed out, though, which is nice.

Organizationally, our Hierarchy is still dangerously high, though our Centralization seems to have gone up a bit IIRC.

Culturally speaking, our Art is booming right now, though our Mysticism really needs to get boosted ASAP. Our Prestige is 4, but I'm not sure how good that is compared to our neighbors.


Ok, we have Basic Administrative Math and Imported Copper, which is cool. Not sure how long they've been up there, but the math is probably why we're suddenly allowed to see all the numbers happening during our turns. I wonder... if we raise math high enough, will we be allowed to see the dice rolls? Just a thought.

As for the Copper, it's a decent stop gap measure, but I really do want to get our own mines up and running ASAP so that we aren't completely dependant on an outside party for all our metal.


No changes here that I can see.


This right here? Best. Project. EVER.

I'm super glad we decided to do it, even if it was kinda frustrating at the time.

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CHOICES

OMGWTFBBQ

First, please note the following information:

AN: To answer a few questions, immediate stability gain means that there is no issue with the timing of the event for relating with stability loss or the like. And yes, if Twythulmyn sacrifices himself, Legitimacy would go to 4. There would be no way to raise it back to 4 once it fell, but until you face an issue of legitimacy that lowered it, it would remain at 4. Finally, I stopped the LoO triggers at 5 since you would break if you picked more than that you would break even with maxing out immediate stability gain, and 5 is massively gambling on good rolls anyway so I doubt it would be popular, but there were a potential 8 LoO triggers this turn.

Also, as a general request, please keep the salt down over people pointing fingers over whether stability improvements should have been done or not

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Now, this turn's choices will be mainly affecting our Stability and Economy stats. Currently, we have Stablity -1 and Economy 4.

Bear in mind that we cannot let Stablity drop down to -3 and we cannot allow Economy to drop below 0 or else bad shit will happen.

Now, onto choice number one:

Size of Sacrifice to Spirits (Task [Sacrifice])
[] Small (-1 Econ, chance of stability loss, ???)
[] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)

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Do we want to be stingy and potentially make our people freak out more, or should we go all out and start throwing everything into the fire? Decisions, decisions...

Second choice!

Emergency Restore Harmony? (Task [Harmony])
[] No, they could cause further panic
[] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)

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Remember, Restore Harmony drops Stability by 1 point before raising it somewhere between 0-3 points. If we don't have this as a main action, it's pretty risky, especially since we're already at -1 Stability.

... you know, from now on, we need to have at least +1 Stability at all times, just so we can deal with this kind of shit whenever it triggers LoO.

Third choice!

Share the scourge warding magic? (Task [Ward])
[] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)

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On one hand, we can keep the Sacred Warding to ourselves and laugh as all our neighbors die off. On the other hand, we can make a lot of our people happy by shoving our superior knowledge into those foreigner's faces and giving them a chance to survive. If we pick option 2 and share it with only our friends, we pretty much maintain the status quo and stop stability from rising or falling.

Forth choice!

Where should Twythulmyn go? (Task [King])
[] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)

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Option A: Stay at home, try to keep people calm.

Option B: Go to the Thunder Horse, stop them from freaking out so much.

Option C: Diplo Hero sacrifices himself for the Greater Good, makes our people less upset and actually makes them more accepting of their leaders because they know the King is willing to do anything to protect his people. On a purely practical note, we're going to lose Twythulmyn in a turn or two anyway. On a sentimental note, I'm not really sure I want our people to decide that burning their leaders alive is a decent option during a crisis.

Fifth (and final) choice:

With disease and comets, everyone has lost their mind and thousands are running scared (Task [Refugee])
[] Close the borders (-1 Stability, chance of further stability loss)
[] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
[] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)

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This is the Land of Opportunity triggering again. You all know how this goes - the more people we accept, the higher our Economic gain, but the lower our Stability will drop. Fortunately, this time we have actual numbers attached to each option, which makes it much easier to calculate the cost/gain ratio.

Remember, Stability cannot be lower then -3 and Economy cannot be lower then 0. Obviously, the higher the better, but we don't want to lower either stat too much.

Personally, I feel that the bottom two options should be discarded because they simply cost too much stability unless we go all-in with the other options. They also cause overcrowding issues, which could be a pain as it'd force us to push out more settlements rapidly to house everyone. Interestingly, both the bottom two options involve our people actively going out to help people while all the options above it involve deciding how many people should be let in through our borders.

For now, my choices are:

[X][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[x] [Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)

Harmony - I'm worried that using it might actually cause our stability to drop, which would be bad in this situation.

King - I feel that this option would develop our culture and beliefs further. That "???" might be our Honorable Death trait changing to something better. It also gives us +1 Stability.

Sacrifice - drops our Economy down to 0, but it gives us a guaranteed +1 stability with a chance for more. Not sure what that "???" might be, though.

Ward - I'm willing to share it with some minor friendly groups if it means not losing stability.

Refugee - This plan basically gives us +2 Stability and -4 Economy, so reducing our Stability by 2 and raising our Economy by 4-5 maintains the current state of affairs. I want to grab one of the bigger options, but considering our low stability, I think this is acceptable.

On the bright side, if we can survive this turn, we should be in a good position since we're the only group that didn't get completely fucked over by the plague. For now, pray to the Crow and RNG, everyone. We're gonna need it.

When does the vote close?

[x] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[x] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[x] [Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)

TotallyNotEvil said:

When does the vote close?

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Hope not soon. This is a big decision turn, and a lot of people already went to sleep by the time I was ready to argue, because lol IRL+timezones+frustration at myself fucking up the vote for no good reason previous turn.

Most importantly, I am very curious why people are so afraid of others stealing inoculation tech when even much easier techs like mass warfare are not stolen yet despite Priests parading it around.

It's less about stealing (tho the fact we did all the heavylifitng with a mega project sucks), and more about this being our one big break.

The DPs have grown way, way too strong. The HKs are like the ST in that they hate the priests more than us, the Nomads have no compunctions on raiding us, the Thunder Horses fucked us over in the ST fight and all we got as reward for committing all we did was "we won't fuck you over more".

The People are surrounded by enemies. Now, a convinient plague, which we are immune to, is buttfucking them, and hitting the worst ones specially hard.

We should focus on coming out of this as unscathed as we can, so we can become the dominant polity in the region. Hopefully, DPs will implode, or maybe self-destruct with the HKs, and we can sweep up the pieces. Expanded military + being the only centralized power makes it trivial.

[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)

Now that the give everyone our Warding vote has fallen behind, I'm okay with handing it out to a few of our closest neighbors. Eliminates the stability loss chance and helps out a few people.

Removing my vote for the rest to reduce bandwagon and gives the other options a chance.

My opinion:

Size of Sacrifice to Spirits (Task [Sacrifice])
[] Small (-1 Econ, chance of stability loss, ???) _ not worth risking stability to gain ???, depends on ???
[] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)_ no stability effect, depends on ???
[] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)_ +1 Stability, can easily afford Econ loss, depends on ???
[] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)_ some risk, 0 Econ could trigger stability loss, should only be done with plan requiring immediate stability, depends on ???

If we had not spent econ on Warriors last turn and instead gained from a new settlement, I would recommend Everything. As it is all of these options are dependant on unknowns so I would be happy with any.

Emergency Restore Harmony? (Task [Harmony])
[] No, they could cause further panic _ no change
[] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability) _ gamble on 75% chance of resulting stability same or better

I would take the gamble, but am happy with playing it safe. If we choose an immediate +1 Stability I would recommend Yes, otherwise No.

Share the scourge warding magic? (Task [Ward])
[] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)_ small chance of stability loss, preserves our health advantage
[] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)_ no stability effect, preserves our health advantage with minor risk
[] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)_ chance of stability gain, depends on ???
[] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)_ +1 Stability in return for Diplo(we have plenty), depends on ???

All options are equally good/bad. I would recommend everyone, but it will result in the Dead Priests having an easier time rebuilding. As we are not planning on expanding into the lowlands for another ten or so turns it is best to keep them weak, so friendly tribes or less friendly groups would be best.

Where should Twythulmyn go? (Task [King])
[] Remain home (Chance of stability gain) _ chance of improved stability with no risks
[] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis) _ unknown result, probably not worthwhile
[] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???) _ +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, depends on ???

It depends on other choices/if spirits are real in story so I recommend different King choices depending on what it is combined with.

With disease and comets, everyone has lost their mind and thousands are running scared (Task [Refugee])
[] Close the borders (-1 Stability, chance of further stability loss) _ lose stability
[] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss) _ risk losing stability for chance of no loss
[] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)_ lose stability, minor risk minor econ gain
[] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ) _ -2 Stability gain small Econ
[] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???) _ -3 Stability, good Econ gain
[] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)-4 Stability, big Econ gain, risky
[] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)-5 Stability, massive Econ gain but very risky

I would suggest Some from friendly groups, but as long as we do not choose close borders or only let some in I am happy. If we had boosted stability last turn instead of warriors this would have been an easier choice but with our current Stability -1 (anxious) this is a hard choice on risk versus reward.



Plan Sacrifice Value:
Sacrifice Everything _ _ +1 immediate Stability, chance of extra Stability
Harmony Yes _ _ -1 stability roll for gain(+0,+1,+2,+3)
Ward Everyone _ _ +1 Stability
King Speak with spirits _ _ +1 immediate Stability
Refugee People must offer aid _ _ -4 Stability
*extremely risky, if refugee is not last we die. However if we roll well this sets us up for expansion into lowlands next turn and our Honourable Death Value upgrades
*a.k.a. do you feel lucky?

Plan Risk Nothing:
Sacrifice Everything _ _ +1 immediate Stability, chance of extra Stability
Harmony No _ _ no stability result
Ward Everyone _ _ +1 Stability
King Speak with spirits _ _ +1 immediate Stability
Refugee Those with preexisting ties _ _ -1 Stability, small chance of further stability loss
*safe, lowers risk of stability loss
*a.k.a. lets start next turn at Stability 2

Plan Stay As We Are:
Sacrifice Medium_ no stability effect
Harmony No _ _ no stability result
Ward Even less friendly groups _ _ chance of stability gain
King Remain home _ _ chance of stability gain
Refugee friendly groups can come in _ _ --2 Stability
*will result in negative stability next turn, but tries to keep our culture unchanged
*a.k.a. no change

Plan All In:
Sacrifice Everything _ _ +1 immediate Stability, chance of extra Stability
Harmony Yes _ _ -1 stability roll for gain(+0,+1,+2,+3)
Ward Everyone _ _ +1 Stability
King Speak with spirits _ _ +1 immediate Stability
Refugee All who need aid must receive it -5 Stability
*major gamble on refugee occurring last, and a good Restore Harmony roll, it risks everything to gain the most
*a.k.a. lets start next turn max Econ or dead



I look forward to finding out our final choices/and/next turns rolls. Whatever chosen will not be the best, but will not be the worst.
Lets go with plan Academia Nut

TotallyNotEvil said:

It's less about stealing (tho the fact we did all the heavylifitng with a mega project sucks), and more about this being our one big break.

The DPs have grown way, way too strong. The HKs are like the ST in that they hate the priests more than us, the Nomads have no compunctions on raiding us, the Thunder Horses fucked us over in the ST fight and all we got as reward for committing all we did was "we won't fuck you over more".

The People are surrounded by enemies. Now, a convinient plague, which we are immune to, is buttfucking them, and hitting the worst ones specially hard.

We should focus on coming out of this as unscathed as we can, so we can become the dominant polity in the region. Hopefully, DPs will implode, or maybe self-destruct with the HKs, and we can sweep up the pieces. Expanded military + being the only centralized power makes it trivial.

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Which is why I do not propose sharing it too much, but what is wrong with giving it to the explicit friendlies, like, say, those minor tribes of fishers to the north-west?
It's not like we have a lot of actually friends, and our Heroic Diplomat leader knows it and how to leverage it better than anyone.

Voting for plan zamin on the basis that I like the turn analysis, and I do not know what to go for.

[X][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[x] [Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)

ctulhuslp said:

Which is why I do not propose sharing it too much, but what is wrong with giving it to the explicit friendlies, like, say, those minor tribes of fishers to the north-west?
It's not like we have a lot of actually friends, and our Heroic Diplomat leader knows it and how to leverage it better than anyone.

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Because everyone is already voting on refugee plans that should assimilate those tribes anyway, and if we instead give up the cure, not only will we get less immigrants, but word will get out.

We are the least milliant of all the local powers. As soon as they realize people are fleeing to the mountains not because that's what one does when shit hits the fan, but because they have a solution to the armaggedon, you can expect the DPs and the HKs to rile everyone up into a frothing frenzy and come knocking, and probably punish us for our "insolence".

We are already seen as the weird hill people. We don't need even more rumours about the wealth we hoard in our valleys. Especially when people are dying and getting hungry.

It could see the DPs and the HKs and Nomads, or some mixture of thereof, united.

zamin said:

- We can see the effects of the last turn's choices here. Twythulmyn's been expanding the military, sending out trade missions and expanding the economy. It also looks like one of the sub-chiefs tried to send out some boats on an exploration mission and flubbed the roll

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You know, this is rather important to note, we do know what at least one of the tribes has done. I rather suspect that a high level of centralization compared to hierarchy will let us see what's going on.

Sigh, so much to do.

TotallyNotEvil said:

Because everyone is already voting on refugee plans that should assimilate those tribes anyway, and if we instead give up the cure, not only will we get less immigrants, but word will get out.

We are the least milliant of all the local powers. As soon as they realize people are fleeing to the mountains not because that's what one does when shit hits the fan, but because they have a solution to the armaggedon, you can expect the DPs and the HKs to rile everyone up into a frothing frenzy and come knocking, and probably punish us for our "insolence".

We are already seen as the weird hill people. We don't need even more rumours about the wealth we hoard in our valleys. Especially when people are dying and getting hungry.

It could see the DPs and the HKs and Nomads, or some mixture of thereof, united.

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Why do you think those tribes are going to be assimilated? 'Many refugees' is not exactly the same as 'all the people'.
And I sorely doubt HK and DP can ally for any reason at all, let alone wild rumours of shamanic magic which is clearly unique to people of the hills because ~magic~.
Besides, with the plague + comet, they are all a bit busy with, you know, not dying* to be a problem now, and by the time they recover enough to be trouble those rumours will devolve into myths and little more, because, IIRC, our writing is the most advanced in the area.

*Or rather with dying.

Enough people will be assimilated.

They might not unite with each other, but two consecutive zerg rushes is perfectly possible.

If we start spreading the magic around, our ability to do so is self evident. These people are desperate, they are already crazy, they don't need more to act irrationally. It will be trivial to conclude we aren't giving them the life-saving magic because we don't want to.

"Everyone knows they hoard their treasures in their valleys, now they hoard magic! Let's go take it from them!"

It's our ace in the hole, our prize-winning lottery ticket. We keep it close to our chests as long as we possibly can.

What the hell is a horde of unorganized rabble going to do against our trained warriors?
Even if the DP get organized the rabble would directly hurt their efforts, never mind that there is a plague going on killing them.

TotallyNotEvil said:

Enough people will be assimilated.

They might not unite with each other, but two consecutive zerg rushes is perfectly possible.

If we start spreading the magic around, our ability to do so is self evident. These people are desperate, they are already crazy, they don't need more to act irrationally. It will be trivial to conclude we aren't giving them the life-saving magic because we don't want to.

"Everyone knows they hoard their treasures in their valleys, now they hoard magic! Let's go take it from them!"

It's our ace in the hole, our prize-winning lottery ticket. We keep it close to our chests as long as we possibly can.

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Yeah, which is why we hoarded all the food during that drought, right? Oh wait, we did not - we shared what little we had and got another village out of it. Not being a dick wins people over and gives you allies, news at 11.
Besides, if people learn that we are immune and do not teach it even to our friends, we are not going to have those friends anymore. Because they will be either dead to the plague or completely understandably pissed.

Ghostdevil said:

What the hell is a horde of unorganized rabble going to do against our trained warriors?
Even if the DP get organized the rabble would directly hurt their efforts, never mind that there is a plague going on killing them.

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They severely outnumber us. A frenzied, bloodthirsty mob vs mostly farmers? Not pretty.

In the end, they will hurt us, perhaps even badly, and we really don't need it, especially right now. Spreading the wards gains us little to nothing at a great risk.

We have no real major allies. Anyone we could teach that's closer to us can trivially be absorbed as refugees. Win-win.

I think I might use something like this in my next Negaverse omake.

"Hey guys, I know we're all dying from the plague, but let's start a war with those guys in the hills! I think that's definitely the best thing to do right now."

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"Yeah, fuck those guys. How dare they not share their cure with us, the cannibalistic slavers that spit on all their beliefs and values?"

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"I know the DM said that they've got defensive bonuses from their terrain, but how bad could it really be? Even sick and half starved, I'm sure our army is big enough to take them."

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zamin said:

I think I might use something like this in my next Negaverse omake.

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I love the combination of this being horrible logic, yet the actually distilled form of the logic many players would have.