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Paths of Civilization
- Thread starter Academia Nut
- Start date
- Original
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
- Location
- Lickwidget
- Pronouns
- She/Her
It's almost more than that. I'm trying to parse out the legend possibilities good and bad and what it would mean for us.
- Location
- Illinois
[X] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[x] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
Changing because I didn't see that we were at -1 stability.
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[x] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
Changing because I didn't see that we were at -1 stability.
- Location
- Source of confusion itself.
[X] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
Theunderbolt
"Prepare for trouble..."
- Location
- USoA
[j/k] Plan safe space.
-[j/k] Small (-1 Econ, chance of stability loss, ???)
-[j/k] No, they could cause further panic
-[j/k] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
-[j/k] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
-[j/k] Close the borders (-1 Stability, chance of further stability loss)
-[j/k] Small (-1 Econ, chance of stability loss, ???)
-[j/k] No, they could cause further panic
-[j/k] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
-[j/k] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
-[j/k] Close the borders (-1 Stability, chance of further stability loss)
This is assuming we get at least one stability gain from each action. Adminstration roll also play a role in determining the sequence of event. We have something like 25% chance of having people simply pore over our border and causing our civilization to fracture.
- Location
- Australia
@Academia Nut, considering that many villages have warriors, will we get any boost to Martial if we bring in a sufficient amount of refugees?
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- Location
- Anchorage, Alaska
I'm not thinking too deep about this, beyond "If it turns out there is a spiritual plane (albeit one that has to be more heavily cut off than the stuff in Amber Age) I will go BUG EYED. Then cackle uproarisly."
I'm also wondering if we'll be in a good enough position to start a massive growth campaign (particularly into the lowlands). If it weren't for the massive blow-up we were suffering with everyone else, it would be the perfect time.
But, needs must.
2971
I'm also wondering if we'll be in a good enough position to start a massive growth campaign (particularly into the lowlands). If it weren't for the massive blow-up we were suffering with everyone else, it would be the perfect time.
But, needs must.
2971
VoidZero
Passing Flan 布丁魔王
- Location
- Anywhere but RL
[X] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
Seems like a good plan. #Murphy stop
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
Seems like a good plan. #Murphy stop
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
I'm going to have to go with something like this...
[X] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
OR
[] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] No, they could cause further panic
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
Little risk, limited reward. Ultimately, the aim here is not to trigger the potentially negative ???'s that come with the 'obviously all net+' stability actions. I absolutely do not want to trigger more than one of the ???'s, and I'm honestly hoping to avoid triggering even the Large food sacrifice ???.
As an aside, it also ensures that we keep our very sacred, very useful inoculation techniques away from both the Nomads and the DP for an extended period of time, which will completely cripple them given the sheer might of this disease.
All told, 'small chance' will be assumed to be ~25% on the roll, while 'chance' will be assumed to be ~50%.
ASSUMING THE ABOVE IS TRUE, it can be simplified down to about 3% that this causes -2 stability, a ~27% chance that this causes -1 stability, a ~42% chance that this causes 0 stability, and a ~27% chance that this nets us +1 stability.
This has a 3% chance of causing societal collapse, assuming 'small' means 25%, and 'chance' means 50%. Everything else is meh.
Even raising 'small chance' to 33% and 'flat chance' being 50% only confers an additional ~2% to societal collapse, raising it to 1 in 20, a very unlikely outcome.
[X] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
OR
[] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] No, they could cause further panic
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
Little risk, limited reward. Ultimately, the aim here is not to trigger the potentially negative ???'s that come with the 'obviously all net+' stability actions. I absolutely do not want to trigger more than one of the ???'s, and I'm honestly hoping to avoid triggering even the Large food sacrifice ???.
As an aside, it also ensures that we keep our very sacred, very useful inoculation techniques away from both the Nomads and the DP for an extended period of time, which will completely cripple them given the sheer might of this disease.
All told, 'small chance' will be assumed to be ~25% on the roll, while 'chance' will be assumed to be ~50%.
ASSUMING THE ABOVE IS TRUE, it can be simplified down to about 3% that this causes -2 stability, a ~27% chance that this causes -1 stability, a ~42% chance that this causes 0 stability, and a ~27% chance that this nets us +1 stability.
This has a 3% chance of causing societal collapse, assuming 'small' means 25%, and 'chance' means 50%. Everything else is meh.
Even raising 'small chance' to 33% and 'flat chance' being 50% only confers an additional ~2% to societal collapse, raising it to 1 in 20, a very unlikely outcome.
Recall that AN has previously informed us that good traits are not conferred from beneficial actions. Actions like king sacrifice and paying out huge Econ costs for easy stability and shots at more are overtly beneficial, with their downsides being comparatively minor from almost any standpoint (especially when combined together). Do you really think that AN would present us with "this option is in all ways mechanically superior to the others, even in the long term"?
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We must Pierce The Shroud!
- Location
- Germany
We rolled a 'fuck you' because clearly that's the message that the dice spirits wanted to send
BungieONI
Seven gremlins in a trench coat
- Location
- Lickwidget
- Pronouns
- She/Her
DON"T INVOKE THAT ELDRITCH SIR! PLEASE> *Makes sacrificial dice offerings with blowtorch*
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- Location
- Source of confusion itself.
It might merge with the Honorable Death thing.
I'm not worried about a comet. The sky spirits wanna mess with us? I say bring it on!
In fact, we might even say "Comet me, bro!"
In fact, we might even say "Comet me, bro!"
- Location
- Anchorage, Alaska
Oh for frags... He did it again! WHY MUST HE DRIVE ME INTO MADNESS WITH THESE HEADPAT-INSIGHTFULS???
I've gone so far over the edge, I might write up my own Review of the turn! SOMEBODY STOP ME!
2972 He must be doing it on purpose. He wants to drive me mad! I can feel it!
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- Location
- Australia
You're missing out on a chance for us to get a Jesus figure. That kind of figure in our mythology would be great for our culture. Also, you're forgetting the Great Drought from ages past, where we helped all in need when times were most difficult and we were rewarded for it.
- Location
- Germany
[X] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
I were surprised beyond belief if it didn't.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Mechanically no, but some of the higher level refugee takings in might have that effect.
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
Except I have already used meta knowledge to strongly refute the likelihood of us getting a messianic figure, or any sort of long-term positive bonus from king sacrifice. Such a bonus would mean that sacrifice is literally the only good choice, as both others in that category are mechanically inferior, which is something AN does not do. I am not especially happy to resort to meta argument, but it's a very strong argument in this case.
ANY TRAIT OR EFFECT caused by the Sacrifice's ??? effect are liable to be overtly negative, or at least such a double-edged sword that they might as well be overtly negative.
I am not forgetting that drought. We have taken in less people than we could afford to take in before, and in doing so have not triggered any penalties. This is such a massive crisis that AN has said that we literally cannot take in everyone, there are still three LoO triggers that he literally will not allow us to take because of how bad things are right now.
[X] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] No, they could cause further panic
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[X] No, they could cause further panic
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
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- Location
- Central Europe
[] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[] No, they could cause further panic
[] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
Worst case we drop to -2 Stability. Best case we rise to 0 Stability. But, this would mean we neither have to sacrifice our king nor give up the advantage that our scourge warding holds.
[] No, they could cause further panic
[] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
Worst case we drop to -2 Stability. Best case we rise to 0 Stability. But, this would mean we neither have to sacrifice our king nor give up the advantage that our scourge warding holds.
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