- Location
- Book Fort
- Pronouns
- They/Them
Ah, poop muffins. Welp, ES60 here we go!
Marked for Death: A Rational Naruto Quest
- Thread starter eaglejarl
- Start date
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- Tags
- naruto rational rationalist romance armageddon is looking better and better damn you kishimoto explosions everywhere explosives solve everyone if in doubt surrender to the mercy of zabuza it seemed like a good idea at the time looks like a really bad case of being a jōnin my god. where does the lore end? precommitting is the winning plan screaming in kagome screw the rules i have explosives something bad might still happen sometimes you gotta sociopath stabby zabby subsection c of paragraph 9 should include we can weaponize this so hard
- Location
- United States
What does the Biosealer Stunt do?
- Location
- Fifth Dimension
Let us bioseal presumably.
I see... would the below suffice for your vote?
Bolded are changed, bolded and underlined are changes mentioned above.
At what point do we give up on ES? If it takes ES 100 to get 3-D sealing is it worth it? I'm not advocating for stopping now. I just think we should consider it before we go hog-wild on leveling ES.
@Paperclipped so he gets a ping too.
Now that Hazou has leveled ES to 50. Does he have a feeling for how is control is improving with each AB, is it linear, exponential etc.? Does he (and his 74 Sealing) have a feeling for how many more ABs he needs to go up in ES before he can start shaping 3-D seals the same way he draws 2-D ones
- Location
- The Maple Syrup Mountains
Keep in mind, Jiraiya did start changing his mind on that over time,
Contrast an environment where good ideas are in sparse supply (like Sealing, with its crippling dearth of practitioners) and where the payout is largely proportional to the value of the idea (like Sealing, where you can do absolutely wild things with the right idea): in an environment like that, an idea can be quite valuable indeed. Kagome was the one who researched skywalkers, and it was his intellectual skill that made it possible, but he never would have started work on a project that valuable if he hadn't been given such a golden idea by Hazou. In the counterfactual world where Hazou never had that idea, Kagome would have spent his time on a much tamer seal of some sort, probably a small improvement on his combat/trapmaking toolkit instead of the gamechanger skywalkers were.
So sometimes an idea is worthless, and sometimes it's priceless, and it comes down to context to figure out which. I don't doubt Jiraiya heard all sorts of ideas for how to run a spy network from his many contacts, only to again and again find that the only true thing that makes a good spy network is endless hard work from a relentlessly skilled spymaster.
Personally if we go this route I'd be amenable to sending him to fight a Chakra Golem and retrieve some chakra metal. He's strong enough to maybe pull it off or at least survive the attempt, if it works we get great loot, and either way he's off in the middle of high-chakra nowhere instead of punching coins out of undocumented civilians.
Thanks for the kind words! Gut feeling, if anything the gemstone stuff is even more what we should be keeping above the table, because markets only backed by rarity (like gold and gemstones) are far more volatile than the iron market. If we oversaturate the iron market we hurt the existing iron industry but make a lot of people better off because iron's useful and in abundance. If we oversaturate the gemstone market we hurt the existing gemstone industry but the value of gemstones everywhere goes into freefall because they're no longer rare.
At the end of the day... we can't really give up on ES unless we find some other way of getting 3D Sealing. There's no point where we just throw in the towel and say the Great Seal's just not gonna get fixed, so we'll always be pursuing the best leads we have on the matter.
As much as it pains me to say it, it does look like ES 60 might "actually for real this time" unlock 3D Sealing. Hazou's thought process this update sounds like he managed to figure the whole thing out and just can't pull off what he knows he needs to do. More than the "maybe this could work, but I'm not good enough" from ES 40 when we tried to make the puff of air seal but couldn't make the stone pure enough, Hazou went through a checklist of everything that makes sealing work and concluded he'd have everything checked if only he could pull off the hard part.
If we get to ES 60 and it's like the Dog jutsu, where literally everything is right and Hazou can't think of any way to improve it but it still isn't working, then we give up on ES. If we find some other way to make a 3D Seal, then we give up on ES. But if Hazou thinks it's just around the corner with a little more effort, actually for real this time... we've been burned multiple times by now, and I hate to say it, but we can't afford to not try again.
- Location
- Yes.
My understanding is that anything only the clan owns is a clan secret, at least until it is leaked/reverse engineered. Anything the clan gained from individuals outside the clan is not a clan secret.
As for what protections they retain...Konoha law basically says "the Hokage will mediate and penalize offenders severely". Even the Hokage can't poke around at that without risking civil war.
- Location
- Book Fort
- Pronouns
- They/Them
I mean... if Earthshaping is the only way to unlock 3D sealing, then we kinda have to keep investing in it. Dragons.
- Location
- Texas
Pouring one out for the cool Dog clan jutsu we never got to use.
Wow, thank you for listening and adjusting!
Slight tweaks:
I'd just straight up ask about Sasori, we've talked to Asuma about getting Akatsuki help on the Great Seal, he seemed ok with it. no need to play coy.
I'd add something like "Discuss Earthshaping with Asuma, following advice from the Goketsu meeting"
Even if you don't like these tweaks, the new plan looks pretty good.
[X] Action Plan: Doing it again
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- Location
- The Void
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Honestly it feels like we have to put it on the back burner. We've spent literal years chasing it and we still probably will have to for at least another year. Hazō has basically crippled his build trying to reach the end.
Once we've fixed Hazō's build by following @Shrooms X9 plan we can think of going back towards it.
- Location
- The Maple Syrup Mountains
My general understanding of the thought process behind 'what counts as a clan secret' is that nobody can credibly claim to have reinvented it on their own. This is both functional (the most valuable secrets in a clan are things like jutsu and bloodline details, which easily count as central examples of this) and useful (if some rando starts using Nara Shadow Jutsu, it's a pretty open-and-shut case that malfeasance was involved).
This creates a problem for us, because, well, what does it even mean to clan-secret a jutsu application? If, a year from now, someone shows up with ES 50 and a boatload of iron, could we credibly say they stole from us? It's quite plausible that they took the jutsu and leveled it on their own, or maybe Kabuto saw Orochimaru do something with it and shared the knowledge in casual conversation with someone who then leveled it for themselves.
To my understanding, there are two things we actually want in this direction:
- The exclusive right to monopolize the market of ES-produced metals and gemstones, even if someone else attains the same level of ES.
- The right to tell Asuma to buzz off if he asks about something like FOOM, even if he really wants to know.
It's the FOOM thing that's thorny, really. Nobody came up with FOOM before us, but in theory anyone could come up with the idea at any time, just like Hazou did. We have a unique perspective but not unique information. If we got clan secret protections for stuff like FOOM, things would become much harder to arbitrate because it now genuinely isn't clear whether someone with the secret is "an innocent genius who reinvented your idea on their lonesome" or "a vile saboteur who spied on you and stole your most precious secrets". You can't half-mobilize the village in half-retribution against someone who only maybe did something wrong.
But we don't really need that part of the protections, really. If FOOM gets out we can't put it back in the bottle even if the guy who stole it gets convicted. What we care about is ensuring it doesn't get out in the first place, getting the entire village united in saying "if you are found to have stolen this, we will riot" until even Asuma wouldn't dare cross that line. The trouble is, you can't have one without the other. The very same cultural concept that makes Asuma not ask is the one that demands blood for transgression, and we'd have to convince them all that the structure can still work when the foundation of "anyone found to have this is obviously a bad actor" is shot.
It's definitely a tricky proposition. I haven't looked through the plans yet, but if we breach this topic we'll need to approach it carefully, from the right angle and with the right arguments.
- Location
- Raleigh, NC
Would anyone be willing to tell me their feelings regarding the plan "Welcome to the future, Asuma?"
- Pronouns
- She/Her/They/Them
I swear I'm not trying to be disagreeable but this sounds like the sunken cost fallacy - the worth of ES 60 is the same whether we have paid for ES 50 or not, and if ES 60 doesn't bring us to where we want to be, then it's more affordable to stop now than after buying ES 60. It's always affordable to stop when the chances aren't looking good. I personally agree that it's worth the try, tbh. ES 50 leads to untold wealth, after all. And it's apparently sufficient to semi-stealthily kick out a Summon Boss' soul from a place, without the land rebelling, without a ritual, and at minimal cost. I hope ES 60 gives us what we want, but if not, hey, it's already good and there's still a chance to get even better, so...
- Location
- Book Fort
- Pronouns
- They/Them
Some scattershot thoughts:
- Too many scenes make the QMs unhappy, and are likely to end up with a negative XP modifier
- Pretty indifferent about the sand macerator idea. I feel like "test it" and "present to Asuma" are two different scenes that you're trying to squish together into one, and I worry about the QM response to that.
- I enjoy the santiy check about Earthshaping. That needs to happen before we present it to Asuma.
- The flaw with regulating genin to ES-mooks is that genin don't have a level 50 skill. IIRC, genin have at most a level 40 skill... and those are the ones on their way towards chunnin, rather than being "forever genin."
- The suggestion for genin to head towards sealmastery is a bit... needless? The Sealing Corps already exists, and Jiraiya's Sealing Notes are public. So any genin who wants to become a sealmaster can, and can get pretty far along with the lootbox. Sealing is just a Very Dangerous Thing in this setting, so very, very few people are willing to become sealsmiths (let alone sealmasters). IIRC, there are more Technique Hacker than there are Sealmasters, due to how dangerous the art of Sealing is.
- I question the reason to include "Mari exists" with regard to the Hagoromo
- I'm not sure if the "all the Hagoromo I've met are fuckwads" is strickly true. Harumitsu is a Hagoromo, and he's a good kid. Hazou was seen nodding politely to some of the younger Hagoromo on their estate while he taught Harumitsu.
- Other than the above comment, I approve of the Hagoromo segment. Fuck the Hags.
- Regarding Ruka: I approve. I hope for the long term Till'n'Fills, because even 5 years of solitude is a useless waste. If there's anything to add here, it's more tonal indicators. Maybe something like "Exile is a waste Leaf cannot afford. Her incompetence hurt Leaf, let her pay restitution under the command of another, to prevent another Mednin-Bakuchioka Incident."
- I like the remaining Hag segment
- I would prefer that Hazou only focus on the Minato Seals, rather than the Directional Explosives, but it's not a hill I'm willing to die on, and am okay with the compromise of including both.
Akane was specifically targeted. timelines and attacker path indicate a tower leak. we need to investigate this. Mindwalk(despite politics), Hidan tracking, and Canvass-spice-identification are a few options.
Talking to Asuma about ES is the right idea, but more about how we want to handle this discussion would help.
The Hagoromo section is great.
Expectation management; we were saying that about ES 50. I just want to keep buzzing in the hivemind about this. People were confident, I was confident that 50 would be enough. And we need another AB at the very least. My probability distribution is 50%/30%/19% for ES 60/70/80. It being ES 80 would be very very bad. We never planned to raise ES that high.
Agreed. We need Hazou to be a functional ninja more than we need ES 70 a month sooner than the counterfactual. We cannot stop combat from coming to us. So we need to be ready. It's what bothers me so much when people think that that we don't need to research good combat seals now.
Akane literally died for wont of good Alt buffs. We have a good Alt boosting seal that is chunin level and people just aren't interested in researching it.
And Reusable Rocket Boots are just so important right now. Cannot be overstated. We need to keep working on them. It's so frustrating when people want to waste research cycles on seals that literally don't do anything mechanically. When we could be saving the lives of our clan.
- Location
- Fifth Dimension
[X] Action Plan: Welcome to the future, Asuma!
- Location
- The Maple Syrup Mountains
Yeah... yeah. My instincts are screaming at me not to throw good money after bad, because that is what it feels like by now. It felt like that back at ES 40 and it feels like that even more at ES 50, a carrot dangled in front of our faces with never a guarantee we'll ever get it. The sensible thing in most contexts would be to give up.
But there are infinities in this equation and they have a habit of playing havoc with things. The Dragonwar cannot be lost, no matter the cost. There is no world where we can afford to give up on it, where we can stop searching and leave reality to be devoured.
If there are other leads that might bring us to 3D Sealing, we should pursue the most promising one. If we can pursue multiple leads simultaneously (e.g. one involves doing a mission while the other involves leveling a skill), we should - must - do both. There's no such thing as a bad gamble when the price of not playing is guaranteed oblivion.
If the carrot wasn't still in front of our face, if Hazou didn't seem to genuinely believe this was still our best lead, maybe I'd say our best gamble involves focusing our attention elsewhere. When we have a better alternative lead, or the carrot finally vanishes, we'll finally be able to say that Earthshaping isn't our most likely bet. Until then... nothing to do but keep sinking that cost. Everyone's counting on us.
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- Location
- Book Fort
- Pronouns
- They/Them
[x] Action Plan: Earthshaping and the Steps Towards Peace
Words: 286
Words: 286
- (Potentially offscreened for QM Spoons) High security meeting with Mari, Kei, Snowflake, and Noburi
- Explain Earthshaping developments. Present results.
- Obviously we're telling Asuma, but how to present it?
- Brainstorm how to take advantage of this, without breaking the economy.
- Limit output?
- Only sell to Tower?
- Get proprietary rights to sell Earthshaped products? (that way, if someone else levels ES to 50, they can't sell products)?
- Brainstorm how to take advantage of this, without breaking the economy.
- Asuma:
- Optimize beforehand.
- Request permission to speak freely.
- Discuss the Hagoromo.
- Ritsuo is a vile bigot... but we're tired.
- Ruka:
- Is her punishment mostly about Akane? If so, it's… rash.
- Ruka hurt Leaf, and by extension, Fire. Let her help Fire: replace exile with long-term till'n'fills.
- Under someone else's leadership - ensure the quality of her work (reference the mednin at Bakuchioka).
- Maybe KEI/clanless nin? Exposure cures hatred.
- (implication: olive branch to Hagoromo Clan)
- Does... he think Ruka can change?
- Under someone else's leadership - ensure the quality of her work (reference the mednin at Bakuchioka).
- Reconciliation:
- Our Clans need to see each other as full people.
- Reference the evolution of Noburi/Neji's relationship.
- Assign Goketsu-Hagoromo teams long-term till'n'fills requiring cooperation. Neutral third parties (Sarutobi? Inuzaka?) lead.
- Are there more flexible Hagoromo? We want to see their wider clan as complex and multifaceted.
- Our Clans need to see each other as full people.
- Signal potential national secret
- Provide samples, calculations, and projected economic impacts of ES 50.
- We want to profit (who else would've trained the jutsu like this?) but mostly, we want to use this to help the village, without disrupting things overmuch.
- (Tone: ) We've learned our lesson, we're coming to him.
- Leaf could become an economic powerhouse... though we should be wary for reprisals.
- Could outcompete Rock's inconsistent output... though we should be wary for reprisals.
- Unlimited gemstones, gold.
- Novel materials
- Sealing
- Next Minato seal.
- Eschew prep, use SSA, reroll -9/-12.
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This is why I'm not screaming about the sunk cost fallacy. However, I want to depriortize ES 60. Hazou needs to live to be able to fix the GS, and that means combat stats and seals. With FOOM mostly finished I want to boost combat stats to low-jounin and then revisit ES.
- Location
- Yes.
[x] Action Plan: Earthshaping and the Steps Towards Peace
Suggestions:
- Don't include Gaku.He's very competent, but still a civilian and I have my doubts that Asuma would trust him. If (when) Asuma declares Earthshaping to be classified, he's going to tell us to list everyone who knows about it. This may well end badly for him.
- Relatedly, I may suggest including Noburi, since he's already been told about what we've discovered.
- Put the Hagoromo section before the Earthshaping section, when we talk to Asuma. I know that classifying Earthshaping is a thing that should probably be done sooner than later, but us saying we want to bury the hatchet with the Hagoromo...it loses a bit of its luster when we've just given Asuma another nuke. Something something bias.
- Location
- The Maple Syrup Mountains
Yeah. I remember back at the start of the Dragonwar saying a lot that it's a marathon, not a sprint. Hazou isn't going to be good enough to fix the Great Seal for a long time anyways, he needs much more Sealing than he currently has, so the biggest part of our game plan can be summed up as "git gud". Of course, the earlier we unlock 3D Sealing the better, because then we can start grinding veterancy that much sooner, but it's just as important that we remain in good shape to keep pushing forwards in the first place. Getting our Sealing higher, leveling support stats, unearthing shinies like those found in the Minato seal chain, it's all part of the game plan.
I want to push ES 60 at the, let's call it the earliest reasonable opportunity, but it'll still be a while before we get there. We need to grind raw stats a bunch more before we'll have an open 60 slot we can fill without messing up our "git gud" plans.
This is sooner than I want to do it, but let's fight about that when we get there.
- Location
- Book Fort
- Pronouns
- They/Them
Done and done.
- Location
- Texas
I could have sworn there was a scene with Asuma talking to us about his "Gaku" and how he trusts him.