Well, yeah, we haven't hit much that's absolutely precious to them yet. I think we got a little sneak-peak at what Alukk is going to be like with the adventures the ISSU has been having on Celos. Fortunately they do seem to have done some pretty significant damage there, which might translate to lowered reliability.
Basically, we can operate detectives on Alukk and do pinpoint commando raids. Not much more. The Syndicate has vast assets on Alukk, but so does the Union government, so it cancels out as long as neither side is willing to risk a pitched war for Alukk that they might lose. The Union government cannot readily survive losing Alukk, but the Syndicate might be hard pressed to survive it too- stalemate, in which our financial investigators, telepathic detectives, and so on are most effective.

EDIT: Actually the scrutineers + Aerocommandoes did take down a shodar on Alukk before Kahurangi retired, we've been hitting them harder than I thought.
Two Shodars have been taken down so far. Given that the entire operation on New Rigel was run by an Alasho... how many Shodars can they have? Few enough that an entire colony won't have one, but many enough that killing two doesn't affect them much? Hm.
Honestly, "we just captured a Syndicate Shodar" may turn out to be the equivalent of "we just killed the #2 man in Al Qaeda."

I'm pretty sure the US managed to kill al Qaeda's "Number Two" something like five to ten times from 2001-2011. But taking out such an organization's Number Two doesn't actually help very much, because they just take Numbers Three through Fifty, and subtract one in each case so that they are now Numbers Two through Forty-Nine.

If the Syndicate (unlike most real criminal organizations, admittedly) has a reasonably clear line of succession, it's quite possible that capturing a Shodar simply results in one of their senior Alashos stepping into their position, with that part of the Syndicate's operations being mostly restored to normal in a matter of months. The information in the Shodar's brain IS useful... but that would just express itself as more Impact.

The Syndicate will always have Shodars, and they will always be hardened, experienced Syndicate operatives. We can disrupt and harm them by taking out their leadership, but we can't end them that way.

spoilering this, because it's meta reasoning based on the many games I have read/seen.
If we are just crossing the 80 mark right now, the system is horribly broken. the task is not just very difficult (30-60quarters), but annoying difficult (80-120quarters).

It's just bad game play mechanics no matter how it happens. Eventual it will slog down to a non-interesting mess of redundant report and have to be regulated to background events. by the time it ends it will be so unimportant that we as the players will simply not care anymore on a fundamental level. it will simply be something that is, not something that is important. by the end, we simply won't care except in a sense of, hey, that annoying cost mechanic is gone manner.

currently, what I believe is happening is the rescilliance is deducting the amount from the Impact before the impact is listed. or when the initial amounts for cost/impact are generated befor he writes up the events.

In game plot terms.. I can see it happening both ways. that we are just crossing the 80 threshold, and the 200 threshold.
Alternatively, Oneiros may be explicitly planning for us to keep increasing our Impact through various strategems, accelerating the rate at which we do harm to the Syndicate that overwhelms its "damage resistance." Conversely, crossing the 80 Impact threshold might well reduce the Syndicate's ability to 'heal' or 'fortify' itself, causing long term damage to its resilience.

So depending on the mechanics, we can't use "this is how long it would take if Syndicate resilience and Federation impact/month rates remain constant" to judge how long things are going to take. That's sort of the entire point people like me and lbmaian are making: that if we aren't making rapid progress, and the Syndicate can laugh off, say, 20-30 Impact a year without taking any lasting harm... we need to increase our Impact. Even if it costs us heavily to do so.

The date that you realised you cross the threshold has nothing to do with the date you cross the threshold.
That is also a good point.

It still leaves us with the basic cases described- at best, the Syndicate has zero resistance and we realized we'd crossed the threshold almost immediately after actually having done so, in which case we're at the 200 mark (roughly). At worst, the Syndicate has extremely high resistance and we realized we'd crossed the threshold almost immediately, in which case we're at the 80 mark. We can't be below the 80 mark or above the 200 mark.

Another (pessimistic) interpretation: we hit 80 a while ago and only just realised.
That's better than if we only just now hit 80 and realized right away.

Delays in us finding out we've won a victory are much less bad than delays in when we actually won the victory.



One of the votes that is going to happen in Q2 is setting the Intelligence priorities for the year. Questions I think we should consider:
1. Syndicate Resilience
2. Sydraxian Shipbuilding
3. Locations of Sydraxian major colonies
4. Romulan Fleet Strength
5. Licori/Ked Paddah war details (when did it start, who is winning, is peace on the table)
6. Cardassian posture with regards to Apiata (Are the Apiata attacks working and making them back off, or are they gearing up for a big military response?)

Reasons why each of these are important:
1. To stop the thread from freaking out trying to calculate Syndicate Resilience.
2. To know how much the Sydraxians are growing as a threat.
3. To prepare if it does become open war.
4. Because we have to have a Romulan report and this will help us figure what their odds are against the Klingons.
5. Because this war has a chance of dragging in the Gaeni and hence us. We need to know what we're dealing with here.
6. Because this is critical and the Apiata probably have crap intelligence on their own.
I like all of this except (3).

The Sydraxians seem small enough that "just go for their homeworld" is a viable strategy, honestly. We could use more information, but I don't think it's worth spending an intelligence report on unless we can't think of anything better to do. I'd rather find out about Klingon shipyards, among other things because I want to know how many of the berths they've got churning out Birds-of-Prey could be adapted to produce larger, significantly scarier escorts.

Remember, last turn we did Klingon fleet size and Romulan shipyards; it makes sense to do it the other way around this year.

EDIT:
I would actually strongly suggest we task an Oberth to gathering signals intelligence out around Sydraxian space. We could use more information on their internal communications (if we can get it). And even if we can't break their weird song-based encryption, signals analysis could still tell us a lot about the locations of their major colonies. That's how we got a pretty fair idea of the cartography of Cardassian space, remember.
 
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I like all of this except (3).

The Sydraxians seem small enough that "just go for their homeworld" is a viable strategy, honestly. We could use more information, but I don't think it's worth spending an intelligence report on unless we can't think of anything better to do. I'd rather find out about Klingon shipyards, among other things because I want to know how many of the berths they've got churning out Birds-of-Prey could be adapted to produce larger, significantly scarier escorts.

Remember, last turn we did Klingon fleet size and Romulan shipyards; it makes sense to do it the other way around this year.

EDIT:
I would actually strongly suggest we task an Oberth to gathering signals intelligence out around Sydraxian space. We could use more information on their internal communications (if we can get it). And even if we can't break their weird song-based encryption, signals analysis could still tell us a lot about the locations of their major colonies. That's how we got a pretty fair idea of the cartography of Cardassian space, remember.

Based on last year we get:
- 1 free Cardassian Tactical report (which will be constrained to a tight list of options and no write-in allowed)
- 1 free Romulan Tactical report (ditto)
- 3 'open' reports

Intelligence may request an Oberth be assigned to Sydraxian space, but I don't want to attempt to force one on them. They're a better judge of the safety/effectiveness of an Oberth in that region of space.

Assuming we only have the 3 open reports, which do you think are most important? Me, I'd go with the Syndicate Resilence, the Licori/Ked Paddah war details, and the Cardassian posture with regards to Apiata.

EDIT: Actually, from last year:
[ ][REPORT] Shipyard Activity Report for: <Write in Power to get current build details and possibly resource levels>
NB: Not currently available for Klingons

Apparently Klingon shipbuilding is not available for some reason; perhaps it can only be gotten through the Analysis technology.
 
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Agreed.

Hopefully we can pick up something really useful regarding the Cardies- their exact fleet strength and shipbuilding aren't so important, since we can make rough estimates that are good enough to tell us what we really need to know.

Though we should probably keep checking up on their shipbuilding every 3-4 years, just to make sure they don't start producing large numbers of a whole new cruiser type or something. It's entirely possible that we've been dealing with 2285 or 2290-vintage Cardassian designs all this time, and that they're currently working on a new heavy cruiser that is basically a bigger, scalier, 1.5 megaton version of the Renaissance. Not a prospect for the faint of heart. ;)
 
You said earlier that current councillors had a 80% of being retained, I believe.

I'm guessing you rolled a lot of 81-100s.

He said on average they had an 80% chance, with some lower and some higher depending on the situation of their worlds. For instance that guy from Vega just won a by-election to his seat, so it seems unlikely he couldn't win again so soon after. He probably had a higher chance.
 
2312.Q2 - Election Night
2312.Q2.M1
San Francisco, 1630hrs

When you became Admiral, you moved from quarters on the San Francisco Fleet Yards control station back planetside, into a spacious house provided for you by Starfleet with picturesque views of the bay and the Golden Gate bridge. It actually makes you feel guilty, as you've hardly had a chance to actually visit your own home with the frantic start to your new job. Still, you made sure to clear your calendar for this. You refused any attempts at appointments past 1600hrs, you fobbed off a series of reports to people with titles like Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for whatever, and got into your hovercar with directions for the driver to step on it. Ten minutes later you're nearly home, slipping through a personal

"Mack, stop over there at the convenience store, would you?" you ask while unclasping your jacket and slipping it off. No need to go flaunting that gaudy rank badge in public.

"Sure thing, Admiral," the petty officer replies. With a graceful arc the hovercar pulls off the marked roadway and into a small parking area. "Need me to go in for you, Admiral?"

"I can handle it, just wait here for me," you reply and hop out of the car.

Walking inside, you see a few aisles with shelves with a dazzling array of colours. Recyclable paper-thin news datapads can be picked up, off a pile. Holographic displays advertise public service notices, news stories, and a few new products. Even though the financial motivation isn't there, developers on Earth are always striving to be the best. There's a sense of pride in knowing that people prefer to use your product, wear your design, eat your food. With the collapse of the major industry concerns, it's all gotten rather healthier, too, although consumption is well down. In ages past, this sort of place would have a cheap, plastic sort of feel. Instead, in the New World Economy, the store owner isn't worried about keeping margins low, about turning a profit. Everything is inviting and colourful, speaking of craftsmanship and care.

A middle aged man smiles brightly as you enter. "Hello there, always a pleasure to see a Starfleet officer in here." You exchange pleasantries for a minute and then begin to look around. "Know what you need?"

"Just looking for some simple party foods," you reply. "Let's see, self-popping corn packets, check. Lemonade, check." You begin to rattle off a few things, which go into paper bags.

"You already have the synthehol at home?" asks the store owner.

"In my line of work, you better believe it," you say, but with a disarming laugh. "Okay, that should do it."

"Staying up to watch the election results, is it?" the storeman asks.

You nod back at him. "That's right. Going to be hosting a few colleagues. Always good to keep an eye on who the new bosses are."

"So, are you new to the area?"

"Yes - well, I've been here three months, but this is my first time getting some free time properly," you reply. "Hopefully I'll see you again now that things are calming down."

"That'd be good! Okay, I've put all of these into the system, just give the machine your thumbprint and you're good to go."

With no currency in domestic use on Earth, everyone is free to collect what they need, but the value is tracked in a large data center based in the city of Bonn, in old Europe. If you start taking far more than your fair share, the government comes around to see if there is a problem you need help with. Almost invariably, it turns out to be someone embarking on a special project that others can help with, or someone who needs to sit with a therapist to work some problems out. It isn't as formalised as Starfleet commissary or protein synthesiser credits, but it's worked thus far. Your 'purchases' are recorded against your identity by the little DNA scanner, but you know that you'd pretty much need to ask the store owner for his whole stock before you were asked what was going on.

You return to the car and sit down with your goods. As the hovercar rejoins the traffic, your communicator beeps. "Sousa here," you answer.

"Valentina, it's Heidi, we're at the house, where are you?" came a voice through the speaker.

"Just stopped for some nibbles, we'll be there in a few minutes. I'll get the door opened for you," you reply. The call shuts off and you pull out a data pad to connect to the OS running your house. With a few taps of the LCARS interface on the pad, the front door is unlocked, the lights are on, and the main display in your living room is set to FBS Channel 1.

Two hovercars are waiting for you at home as you pull up into the driveway. Inside you still have a variety of packing boxes that you haven't had a chance to go through, and all the rooms are very spartan and unadorned. It's been a very hectic three months, and you are definitely looking forward to making the home a little more, well, homely.

"Sousa, is that you?" comes a voice from within the house, in the direction of your living room.

"Yep! Is everyone here?" you call back.

"Just waiting for you!"

It's another meeting of the Vice Admirals, as you all pile together onto a couch. In terms of operational security, it's a complete nightmare, of course. One civilian building containing pretty much the entire senior command structure of Starfleet. But it wasn't quite as bad as that, of course. A variety of security organs have a presence in this district of San Francisco, and of course any time you and the Vice Admirals meet, that security goes into an unobtrusive but paranoid overdrive. But all of that you push out of mind for the time being.

It's time to watch the great sausage grinding of interstellar democracy in action.

The bags of snacks are dropped on the coffee table and you cannot help but wonder what people would think if they saw the top brass of Starfleet piling in like young adults settling in to watch a Big Game, and for election night viewing, no less. Oh well, you're all just human. Except Rinias and Shey, the Andorians, but the point stands.

"Alright, who holds balance at the end of the day? Wagers, anyone?" you ask as you settle into the plush couch cushion. The resulting split says most of your subordinates are favouring the expansionists. When they ask you for your take, you reply, "I think we'll see a changeover. I think sh'Arrath's full-throated backing of the Kadesh project betrayed a little bit of nerves from the Expansionists. The Federation is stretched very thin and I think people are starting to worry, especially with the Syndicate campaign dragging on."

"You really think so?" asks Rinias.

"I do, but we'll be seeing the proper results over the next few hours, I guess!"

1700hrs

"Shh, shh, it's starting," hisses Patricia Chen. The overhead lights dim at a gesture from you as the FBS video sting plays before it opens up onto a data centre located in Paris.

"This is Jameel Williams of FBS Election Night Coverage, and I'm joined by special guests tonight. On my left is T'Ora of the Vulcan Science Academy's political science division. On my right is Tyrak th'Baraav of the Andorian Centre for Interstellar Studies. And on his right is the retired Vice Admiral Donald Hamsfeld, who served as Chief of Starfleet Operations under both Admirals Rogers and Kahurangi."

In your living room, Lachlan Ablett gives a surprised grunt. "Huh, so that's where Donald got to."

"He's been working hand in hand with the Amarkian council delegation," you reply. "I've crossed verbal swords with him over a few issues."

"Legitimately did not know that," says Patricia Chen.

"Lastly we are joined by Glorc fop Cergunn, noted Tellarite journalist and strategic policy wonk. T'Ora, if we can start with you, can you give our viewers a rundown as to what to expect today?"

"It is quite simple, Mr Williams. The six-year terms of the Councillors for the 'original four' member species have ended and are now up for election again. There are 25 seats being voted on: six of the seven Development seats, ten of the twelve Expansionist seats, seven of the ten Pacifist seats, and two of the five Hawks."

"So more than half the Council's thirty-eight seats, this could have a big impact on the shape of the next several years, then?"

"That is correct."

"And which seats are we going to be keeping a particular eye on?"

"None of the Vulcan seats are expected to change hands, however, there are a number of seats that are expected to see a strong challenge mounted. Andoria and Ranford III are both being strongly contested. New Seoul is facing a strong challenge from a Pacifist candidate, while the Hawkish Krund mac Gortenn of Ord Grind Duk is facing a challenge from the more traditional Tellarite Development faction."

"Okay, well, the first election returns are on the board. Counting for each member world takes about half an hour to complete, with first the Andorian worlds reporting, then the Vulcans, Tellarites, and Humans."


A series of figures for the seven Andorian worlds appear on the wide display, and you and your Vice Admirals all recoil at about the same moment, spying the same thing. "Am I the only one seeing Shrantet?" you ask aloud of no one in particular. A number of murmured replies follow.

"Okay, straight away we're seeing large swings away from the incumbents in a number of seats, including a narrowing of President sh'Arrath's own Council seat margin. But these are hugely surprising early results in Shrantet, where the Hawks faction supporting Jhran zh'Chevyth has picked up a sizable lead over the Expansionist Aror th'Tirhen. Mr Tyrak, can you give us some insight into what is happening here?"

Rinias ch'Vohlet, your head of the Design Bureau, snorts at that. "Yeah, they're scared of Dawiar with Cardie photon torps."

"Well, there has been a lot of concern on that world regarding their safety, as they see themselves as a vulnerable border world."

"You have something to add, Mr Cergunn?"

"Yes, Jameel. I know there's been a lot of agitation on Shrantet to their local Council member of late, and they're annoyed that the Expansionists haven't proposed to Starfleet that a Starbase be built there. Candidate zh'Chevyth has been campaigning suggesting that she will raise that topic."

"Okay, a new round of returns have come in and the Hawks lead in Shrantet is increasing quickly. But also the Pacifists may lose the seat of Andoria ... but not in the expected direction. Tyrak, any light you can shed on this?"

"Yes, this one is taking us all by surprise, Jameel. Andoria was a very shaky seat for the Pacifists, their most vulnerable Council seat during this round of elections. But it was expected that the Expansionists would mount the challenge. Instead ch'Galleth, a Development faction candidate, is taking the lead, and we may have a boilover here."


Hikaru Sulu shakes his head. "What sense does it make to build a Starbase at Shrantet when we don't yet have one at Tipperary?"

A few minutes later, the Andorian results are called, confirming that the Hawks are taking the Council seat of Shrantet III, while the Developmentalists are taking Andoria. "That's a big blow for the Expansionists," you opine. "They had big hopes of taking both Andoria and Ranford, but don't take either.

"Do you feel it is part of a larger trend?" asks Sulu. "Or is this something Andorian in nature?"

"Wider trend," you say. "But we'll see."

The Vulcan results come along before long and provide another big surprise. The Vulcan world of Hagelan, which has been staunchly Expansionist, has been flipped against very long odds by a Pacifist candidate, the long-serving Councillor Navonn soon conceding defeat.

"Admiral Hamsfeld, we've seen two Expansionist Council seats lost, one to Hawks and one to Pacifists. It's difficult to take a clear lesson from that. What do you think is driving this?"

"Well, I disagree that we can't take a clear lesson. I think the lesson is clearly that the core members of the Federation have seen so much expansion over the last decade that they're trying to catch their breath. Turning from the Expansionists to the Hawks and Pacifists are two sides of the same coin."

"That's an interesting thought. Mr Cergunn, now does that resonate with you?"

"I think it hits the nail on the head, really. Under President sh'Arrath and Admiral Kahurangi the Federation has exploded in size, which has been an amazing achievement. I think there's an argument to be made that the older Member Worlds are trying to come to terms with all of the changes. The size of the Council alone has increased by thirteen seats."



Next to report in are the Tellarite worlds. The Development faction suffers their first setback of the night when Rihra Thaar loses her seat of Klivvar Proxima to a Hawks candidate. That set-back is mollified somewhat when they in turn take the seat of Ord Grind Duk.

"I honestly can't say I'm that surprised. I mean the Sydraxians tried to ambush an Excelsior barely a month ago," you comment.

"Hands up anyone surprised?" asks Patricia Chen with a broad grin.

"Well, the anchors are," says Heidi. "Look at them, trying to explain this. No one really likes the idea of saying that the Klivvari are voting scared."

You grimace and take a long drink as you digest that thought.

But towards the end of the night, the human results begin to come through. When the first set of results for the human worlds come up, a long silence hangs in the air, both in your living room and in the broadcast studio. It's a distant Donald Hamsfeld that eventually breaks the silence.

"By God, it's a bloodbath."

"Religious invocations and metaphors aside, this
is a most unexpected result."

"Well, Ladies and Gentlemen, if these results hold, and our experts believe they will, that is three of the seven human seats changing hand, all of them lost by the Expansionists. Two to the Development faction, and one to the Pacifist faction. What can we take away from this? Mr Cergunn?"

"President sh'Arrath is going to be fighting an uphill battle for the rest of her term as Council President. With the plurality now belonging to the Pacifists and Developmentalists, plus a surge for Hawks, the Expansionists are in a lot of trouble."


"So, a Pacifist plurality in the Council, this could be ... interesting," you drawl.

"How long til the Council elects their next president?" asks Rinias.

"Two years, at the same time as the Amarkians," you reply. "It'll probably be either Stesk or T'Torah. Maybe Jime Okaar of Betazed."

"Wow, even Hayley Singh nearly lost her seat," mutters Patricia Chen. "Lalande, New Seoul and Joburg each have new Councillors."

"A Pacifist faction plurality," says Heidi with a sigh. "Anyone want me to break out the actual alcohol instead of the Synthehol?"

=============================

Seats changing hands:

Klivvar Proxima, Development -> Hawks
Shrantet III, Expansionist -> Hawks
Joburg IV, Expansionist -> Development
Lalande, Expansionist -> Development
Hagelan, Expansionist -> Pacifist
Ord Grind Duk, Hawks -> Development
Andoria, Pacifist -> Development
New Seoul, Expansionist -> Pacifist

New Faction Balance:
Expansionists, 7, 18.4%
Pacifists, 11, 28.9%
Development, 10, 26.3%
Hawks, 6, 15.8%
Mercantile, 4, 10.5%
 
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All the parties have the best interests of the Federation in mind. The difference is in their preferred choices of policies and methods.
 
Yep. The Pacifists are probably in for the long haul with the Orions.

I suspect any declaration of war with Cardassia had best be VERY well justified or the current head of Starfleet could actually be fired however. Sticking our neck out for non-affiliates may be problematic.
 
Like unless we're told we need to take the guns off our starships or something this really shouldn't matter.

And if we get told we need to take the guns off our ships we point at the fucking biophage because taking the guns off our ships is a fuckstupid idea what with the cardies and other nasties lurkung in the cosmos.
 
The core voted pretty damn conservative, lots of pushback against the new members. Hopefully it's not a sign of an increase in xenophobia or anything. I notice a lot of the fringe systems are being driven by fear of Cardies and Sydrax, too.

On another note, those of us who pay attention to resources better than I: is building that starbase viable or smart right now?
 
So when do we start decommission our excessive number of capital-grade ships, we obviously don't so many wasteful ships when we could be holding hands singing kumbaya?
Oddly enough our Explorers, despite their impressive military capability, will almost certainly be safe from the cutting board. If anything is at risk it would be our escorts. The Hawks want more escorts because they are our best warships by weight and crew so you can see why the Pacifists may not approve.
 
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