COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
Constellation refits are a good way to use berth space to improve our forces without a large cost in resources or crew.
We expend:
+1 closer to Combat cap
10-20 of each kind of resources,
1 year of berth time,
0 crew,
In exchange we get:
+1 Defense,
+1 response to Combat events
+1 response to Science events.
A one-for-one replacement of a
Constellation with a
Renaissance gives a somewhat different calculation. Factoring in Chen...
We expend:
+2 closer to Combat cap
100/80 of bulk/special resources,
2.25 years of berth time,
1/1/1 crew
In exchange we get:
+2 Defense,
+2 response to Combat events
+1 response to Science events
+2 response to Presence events
Greatly improved survivability on Hull/Shield checks
[on any check where a
Constellation has an X% chance of being destroyed by failing a Hull or a Shield check, and X is large enough to worry about without being large enough to doom the ship, a
Renaissance will have a probability of destruction of more like X-20 or X-30]
THINKING ABOUT THE NUMBERS
Thinking this over, replacing a
Constellation costs a LOT more resources, a lot more berth time, and a little more crew than refitting would. While we're sort of trying to save up resources for
Ambassador construction in the long term, we're not too worried about that and I don't think resouces are the key factor.
And the crew cost is quite small, so in a real sense you get what you pay for- especially because that crew now occupies a tougher, more survivable platform. A large proportion of our overall crew casualties suffered from events have been a result of casualties taken by the fragile
Constellations and
Mirandas, and I don't think that's a coincidence.
The question is whether the replacement operation is worth the extra berth time. Because Chen reduces the berth time cost of building a Rennie from three years to (potentially) 2.25, her appointment drastically changes the equation.
The catch is that not all of our berths can achieve that 2.25 year build time, or not without very careful scheduling. Furthermore, we have to mothball the
Constellation a year before the new Rennie leaves the drydock, so we have to be careful not to accidentally fry our Defense requirements during the transition.
RECOMMENDATIONS
All in all, my advice is to wait and see. It'll be 2315 or so before our crew pinch becomes
really bad, and the exact degree to which we are pinched may depend on events between now and then.
As long as we have the pooled crew to build as many Rennies as physically possible up to the limit of our berths, it makes sense to do so, and to
not retire
Constellations. Our Defense requirements are still pretty strict, more ships is generally better than fewer. Plus, war with Cardassia or war between the Romulans and Klingons ae fairly likely possibilities. Which means we need to seriously bulk up our frontier fleets, which means diverting a lot of the new modern cruisers to those frontiers. Which in turn means that the
Constellations are still needed to meet peacetime garrison requirements.
If/when we run out of crew, and given that resource costs are largely irrelevant, it starts making sense to retire
Constellations to crew Rennies- with the notable exception of the
Challorn, since we can't replicate the Blooded status of
Challorn's crew in a new Rennie.
At a later date if we ever have surplus crew it might actually make sense to
reactivate those
Constellations, however, on the principle that more ships is generally better than fewer. Especially since the
Constellations haven't shown any signs of mechanical unreliability, and a refit is likely to extend their service life dramatically.
However, we should still think seriously in terms of developing the
Constellation refit, and refitting those ships, regardless of whether we mothball them. Improving their stats will make using them again at a later time more attractive if we have the crews available in an emergency. Likewise, the member world fleets will be significantly stronger if their legacy
Constellations can be refitted.
Footnote:
The demands of laying down new
Renaissances and
Excelsiors at the pace permitted by Chen's special ability actually DOES start to cut into our resource pool.
@Briefvoice has managed a plan that doesn't put us in the red on anything... but it DOES require us to make "pp for resources" requests in 2315, 2317, and 2318. Furthermore, it doesn't make allowances for the (unforeseeable) costs of building auxiliaries in the new Amarkia yard, and we spend a lot of time towards the end of the decade building low-crew-cost
Centaur-As and (hopefully) low-cost
Excelsior refits.
In other words, the sheer pace of construction under Chen puts us at very real risk of running out of both resources AND crew.
On the other hand, there are a lot of good things we can do for the fleet, even on relatively skimpy crew and resource budgets. Plus, our income and options will continue to grow over time, maybe even faster than Briefvoice's current projections believe. Since I gather that on the whole he's trying to be slightly pessimistic. That way, any surprises will hopefully be pleasant ones.