Remove ads

To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

Linked contents
To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) Starfleet Ship Design Bureau, Refit ("To Boldly Go...")
Reader mode
Simon_Jester said:
Given how much of the losses we took was the result of sheer random chance and minefields, I hesitate to say "if we'd done X the outcome would have been Y." We'd be watching a random number generator proc differently, different ships would get hit by mines, we might end up with fewer crippled ships overall but I'm not sure.

Mines and critical hits make it a lot harder to talk about counterfactuals in the game now, because the butterfly effect is more powerful
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

The point, however, was that regardless of the specific cause one major loss turned the operation from viable to chancey. The best strategic route in my personal opinion is to attempt to minimize the chance of that major loss from the start.

At present, we have to look to what remaining "safe gambles" we can take.

Here are some potential cases:
1. We can fight the Imperial reinforcement fleet as we are, conceding them the advantage of boosting structures but no more, then take on the Iron Hail system after their fleet is killed. We have about 122 of strength (C+H+L). Including boosts, the same amount of enemy strength would be: 2 Boosted Sandworm (C8 H4 L10), 1 Boosted Cruiser (C7 H2 L8), 1 Normal Cruiser (C5 H2 L4), 6 frigates (C3 H2 L3) for a total of 120 strength. Realistically I would not engage at worse than 4:3 odds in our favor and would prefer 3:2 odds, so just the two explorers two cruisers and three frigates would be enough for 4:3.
2. We can destroy Iron Hail and then fight the Imperial reinforcement fleet, but the odds given above get worse for us after our damage and we have no immediate advantage to doing so.
3. We can destroy Iron Dome and then fight the Imperial reinforcement fleet; a 120 strength fleet will decrease to 106 strength, a 13% reduction. We cannot take more than a 13% hit ourselves in the process.
4. We can destroy Iron Dome and High Intensity Beam and then fight the imperial reinforcement fleet; a 120 strength fleet will decrease to 100 strength. Same as above.
5. We can split the fleet to destroy two structures and then withdraw, leaving the system completely exposed for round 2.
6. We can withdraw without taking any further damage. In this case it would be prudent to wait and see what exactly the reinforcement fleet contains before skedaddling.

The most prudent course of action is to destroy two structures then withdraw.

The best gamble is a toss-up between holding the orbit to fight reinforcements and destroying Iron Dome then fighting reinforcements. This is best supported by vectoring in reinforcements of our own to pressure the Imperials into engaging.
 
Last edited:
[X] Attack Stations
-[X] Iron Hail
-[X] Iron Dome

Iron Hail is needed if we are ever to secure the system, and Iron Dome is the most dangerous defensive measure if Imperial Reinforcements show up. There are no more Arcardian ships in system, so these stations will be defended only by Minefields and a Station. I believe we can absolutely take them both.
 
Void Stalker said:
Also with sufficient destruction of assets here they may not try to force the system, more so if tf 2 can be right behind them.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I don't think we should assume that we can summon in Task Force Two to help us in time, given that they'd be starting late and imperial reinforcements may already be half way through the flight to Ixaria?

Night_stalker said:
So strapping on all sorts of emitters and just hoping they draw all the mines towards it is a no-go? Aw man.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I mean it might work, but only if the minefield is poorly designed.

Briefvoice said:
My instinct is we go after Iron Hail and Iron Dome, then see what reinforcements actually show up. Remember, 50%+ chance the reinforcements don't show up next phase.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Ahem, Onerios said before Phase Two:

"If pressed for an estimate, they'd rate it between a 25% to a 50% likelihood that reinforcements would arrive before a third set of operations could be mounted. They will almost certainly arrive before a fourth operation could be mounted."

Now unless I'm badly wrong, that's Oneiros talking about waves of operations, including the first. I can't find anything to argue that he didn't mean to include the first wave. If so, then... Translating those numbers into a representative set of probabilities, and ASSUMING REINFORCEMENTS ARE SENT, that sounds like the 'real' probability breakdown looks something like this:

35% chance a reinforcement fleet would arrive after two phases of combat
55% chance a reinforcement fleet would arrive after three phases of combat
10% chance a reinforcement fleet would arrive after four or more phases of combat.

This is like saying "roll a d20. On 1-7, the reinforcements show up after two phases. On 8-18, after three phases, on 19 or 20, after four or more phases." Since we KNOW the die roll didn't come up between one and seven, we know that of the other 13 possible results, 11 of them involve the reinforcements showing up after three phases of combat.

It is very much NOT true that "50%+ chance the reinforcements don't show up next phase." Not unless we either make rather... specific... assumptions about the meaning of certain words, or unless we somehow just arbitrarily declare that the Licori almost certainly won't reinforce the system.
 
Briefvoice said:
@OneirosTheWriter can we get confirmation that we lobbed a few torpedoes into the helpless powered down cruiser and destroyed it?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
You will before you bug out. In the interim, the shipyard has evacuated all non-essentials, sent up security teams, and have placed the self-destruct on a hair trigger. Infrastructure like the shipyard isn't something you write-off until you know you have to, either having no hope of capturing it, or defending it.
 
OneirosTheWriter said:
You will before you bug out. In the interim, the shipyard has evacuated all non-essentials, sent up security teams, and have placed the self-destruct on a hair trigger. Infrastructure like the shipyard isn't something you write-off until you know you have to, either having no hope of capturing it, or defending it.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I think we should do that before breaking orbit to hit another station
 
Simon_Jester said:
Ahem, Onerios said before Phase Two:

"If pressed for an estimate, they'd rate it between a 25% to a 50% likelihood that reinforcements would arrive before a third set of operations could be mounted. They will almost certainly arrive before a fourth operation could be mounted."
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

See, instead of writing all those words to refute me, you could have considered that maybe I phrased my writing a little sloppily and politely asked for clarification. Instead you went on and on and on to refute something I wasn't even arguing. Yes, reinforcements, if they're coming at all, are very likely to show up at the end of the third phase.
 
I remain concerned about splitting the main force significantly to strike two targets, but it's a gamble I'm not that opposed to.

Void Stalker said:
I think we should do that before breaking orbit to hit another station
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

So leave behind a frigate to ensure that self-destruct is enacted, along with its duties to prevent any further mine-laying or escaping ships.

edit: to be clear, I mean leaving behind a Ked Paddah frigate or two, the ones that are prone to just failing mine checks
 
Last edited:
[X] Attack Stations
-[X] Iron Hail
-[X] Iron Dome

I really think we should see about cutting orders to move Ka'Sharren's task force to just outside the system.

Of course, Nash is the sort of commander that would probably already have her force staged slightly closer to the action than strictly necessary, so quantum Nash at the last second is very much a possibility for any battle with the Imperial Fleet
 
AKuz said:
[X] Attack Stations
-[X] Iron Hail
-[X] Iron Dome

I really think we should see about cutting orders to move Ka'Sharren's task force to just outside the system.

Of course, Nash is the sort of commander that would probably already have her force staged slightly closer to the action than strictly necessary, so quantum Nash at the last second is very much a possibility for any battle with the Imperial Fleet
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Yeah, high aggression, high nerve, low rules abiding? I would not be surprised.

OneirosTheWriter said:
Captain Commodore, there's a new ship arriving ... it's the Enterprise!
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
 
anon_user said:
The shield boost doesn't seem to have worked?
Maybe Sarek and Torbriel science'd up a way to prevent it from taking effect; maybe the ships need time to charge up.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
No, I hadn't set a variable correctly, thanks for the heads up.

That said, I ran it a couple times with the correct figures and didn't get a substantially different result, so I'll let it stand.
 
Briefvoice said:
See, instead of writing all those words to refute me, you could have considered that maybe I phrased my writing a little sloppily and politely asked for clarification. Instead you went on and on and on to refute something I wasn't even arguing. Yes, reinforcements, if they're coming at all, are very likely to show up at the end of the third phase.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
My apologies.

You've been pushing a course that tends to minimize the perceived significance of the reinforcements. I've been hearing from you arguments like "we have to pursue a course of action that gives us a chance of securing the system, regardless of what the reinforcements might do" and "maybe there are no reinforcements" and "we don't know there will be reinforcements" and "maybe the reinforcements will be puny."

So I interpreted your statement as, essentially, further downplaying of the prospect of reinforcements showing up and cramping our style.

SynchronizedWritersBlock said:
It seems that previous battles were more battles of maneuver or scouting runs at the installations, and this is the farthest they've gotten.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Given that I doubt they ever had a force this large to do the job with, I agree.

It's fairly probable that the Ked Paddah have managed to knock out individual installations in the past (maybe Ixaria would have even MORE superweapons if not for previous raids). But they would never have had the force to do more than, say, send out two task forces, hit two targets, combine to hit one more target... and as we've noted, they'd expect to get pounded by imperial reinforcements much sooner than we are expecting to get hit in this battle.

So yeah, this is almost certainly the farthest they've ever gotten- because even if we withdraw, we've chewed up the defenses so heavily that a followup attack has a good chance of success.

AKuz said:
I really think we should see about cutting orders to move Ka'Sharren's task force to just outside the system.

Of course, Nash is the sort of commander that would probably already have her force staged slightly closer to the action than strictly necessary, so quantum Nash at the last second is very much a possibility for any battle with the Imperial Fleet
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Enterprise:

[blushes]

"Mmyeah..."

[stares dreamily into space]
 
OneirosTheWriter said:
[information=Hi Everybody!]"Hi Dr Oneiros!"

Today we're going to Not Talk About General Order 24 Or Anything Else That Smells Like A War Crime anymore![/information]
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
That is totally unfair! The Licori get to do it, why not us! :V

Is there a research branch for creating fake ship signatures/decoys for anti-mine use? Can we use a wide-pattern tractor beam to "sweep" space? What about the brute force solution- a ship that has No Guns, No Science, No Crew, Shields Only (... Final Destination)?
 
FeepingCreature said:
Is there a research branch for creating fake ship signatures/decoys for anti-mine use? Can we use a wide-pattern tractor beam to "sweep" space? What about the brute force solution- a ship that has No Guns, No Science, No Crew, Shields Only (... Final Destination)?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Okay that probably falls under cloaking-related tech and only works against grossly inferior powers, specialized minesweepers are a good idea but wide-beam anything runs afowl of power dropping off with he square of distance, and the brute force solution has a brute force solution of it's own-Bigger Mines, Bigger Booms.
 
I kind of feel that the way the system is designed heavily favors our enemies here. since apparently even though we've never really seen them in large scale use minefields are super fucking deadly with no way to deal with them besides face tanking the hits, and we are fighting an enemy uniquely suited to scatter multiple high value targets in a single system forcing use to face tank lots of mines.
 
Reader mode
You must login or register to reply here.
Remove ads
Back
Top