I hope you're mistaken. Because, see... TF3 is the force we have that is almost certainly heavier than any single formation the Licori can assemble in any one place. TF1 and TF2 aren't.

So suppose you're right. If so, then TF1 and TF2 probably fight multiple battles each, over the course of the campaign. Whereas TF3 only fights, say, once ("may or may not be committed at all"). If so, then we're doing it wrong. We're ordering a plurality of our ships entirely out of most of the battles, not using them, and effectively throwing away our numerical advantage.

My understanding had been that TF1 and TF2 are roving formation intended to target lightly defended facilities and fleets, or to fan out and engage the enemy over an area, whereas TF3 is a concentrated "hammer" that we fully intend to use on whatever strong targets present themselves. And there will be targets worth hitting with the 'hammer,' because we're committing to using that hammer. We picked T'Lorel to command that task force precisely because we expected it to see heavy combat. We put Renaissance in that task force because we expected it to see heavy combat.

If TF3's role is as you describe, then we really should greatly downsize TF3, use about half of it to reinforce TF1 and TF2, and 'demote' the remaining portion to a reserve force that will be committed only if we anticipate a problem for either task force operating alone. Because it would be very unwise for us to commit roughly 50 Combat worth of our 140-Combat fleet to a force that "may or may not be committed at all." Especially against an enemy with a total Combat score of roughly ninety.

So again, I sincerely hope you are mistaken as to the intended role of Task Force Three.

I wrote the deployment plan for TF3 including explaining its role, so I'm pretty sure I'm not mistaken.

The purpose of TF1 and TF2 are to force the enemy to battle. To, as you say, run around raiding and picking fights with patrols and interdicting the area. They're going to get into a bunch of duels and small fights, almost constantly unless the Licori choose to hole up completely. A close analogy would be the Cardassian feeler forces the Saratoga and more recently Revak's Task Force ran into. They're the bait and the force to take the initiative.

The purpose of TF3 is to hammer anything the Licori send out intending to seriously contest the blockade of TF1 and TF2. In other words, TF3 is the force we reserve for an opportunity to break something big. I argued for T'Lorel specifically because T'Lorel would be more choosy about picking fights than our more aggressive commanders, and I said as much at the time, at great length. When TF3 fights a battle, it will be spectacular, but it will not be frequent. In other words, if we see 30C or 40C of Licori fleet sally forth, then TF3 might come out to combine with TF1 or TF2. If it's only 15C or 20C, TF3 may remain in reserve.

Forcing orbitals is the other job of TF3, but that would only happen in circumstances of opportunity like @Briefvoice describes above, or in circumstances where it's deemed critical, which would really only happen once or twice.

They concentrate their fleet and fly out to try to pin down TF1 and TF2. TF3 then flies in to one of the Major worlds they just left undefended and fucks shit up but this time including blowing up outposts, shipyards, and centers of industry.

That or bops a concentrated fleet in the face when they try to take on TF1 or TF2.
 
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That or bops a concentrated fleet in the face when they try to take on TF1 or TF2.

Perhaps, but we make sure never to give a sucker an even break. The idea is that no matter what they do, it's wrong.

Stationary defenses are very powerful, but they need at least some fleet support. If the Licori try to do half measures and leave enough ships at home to maintain their defenses, then their 'concentrated fleet' will be under strength (likely only 40C if you assume they need at least 10C to hold each major world). In that case, TF3 joins up with whatever TF they're going after and smashes the fleet.

Or the Licori can really strip down some of their worlds and muster the majority of their force, upwards of 60C or more. Enough to give TF1 or TF2 + TF3 a good enough fight to do some damage. In which case we kindly take them up on the invitation and TF 1 or 2 retreats while TF3 bypasses the Licori fleet and smashes whatever world they left stripped bare.

Heads we win, tails they lose.
 
What this translates as, though, is that Task Force Three will be used, on the largest fleet and defensive concentrations the Licori present us with.

If either TF1 or TF2 run into resistance heavy enough to seriously endanger their ships, and TF3 is kept out of the battle, then we end up losing ships to no purpose- we invite defeat in detail, or at least an unnecessarily costly victory. So over the course of the campaign, I'd expect TF3 to show up for a large fraction of all the battles, including all the largest ones. Anything that could reasonably hope to put up a good fight against a Combat 30-40 force should see TF3 show up backing TF1 or TF2.

Given that TF3 will be used, then we're exposing its un-refitted Mirandas to risk, which is the point I was trying to make that launched this exchange. Your earlier wording implied that TF3 was not a particularly risky posting for such a fragile ship, due to the relatively low likelihood of seeing combat. But I think we can agree that the likelihood of TF3 seeing combat is actually very high. And that if TF3 does not see combat, then our entire strategy for the campaign is misguided, because it represents such a large share of our forces that keeping it out of battle would neutralize our numerical advantage.

Now, I am prepared to accept this risk; it's our business. But given that we've decided it's worth putting those ships in a heavy task force that will be ordered to fight in the largest battle(s) of the war, I'm not sure it's a good idea to precommit to pulling them back out of that task force until the war is over. Especially since, by the time the Miranda-As we have slated to 'replace' them show up, some of our other ships will already be out of action and we'll want reinforcements just to keep our strength up.

So assuming the war doesn't end within the first six months, I'd rather not schedule the new round of Miranda refits at Vulcan. I'd be happy to start the refit wave in 2316 (when hopefully the war is over), but I don't want to plan on it only taking six months.

I think maybe we should just put refits on hold for the duration of the war, given that pulling Dryad from Lor'vela isn't an option.

I'd rather not pull any more garrison forces out, especially not in the sector that had bordered the Licori before the LBZ was created.

Refit the tissue paper Mirandas in the LBZ task forces instead: Svai, Calypso, Thunderhead. We already got reinforcements from the Tellarites to replace them.

Actually, didn't the Svai partake in the Biophage battles? How was she not prioritized for refit yet?
A lot of ships participated in the Biophage battles, and I'm pretty sure all or nearly all of our stock Mirandas are of the same age, and so would be about equally in need of a refit.
 
That very much depends on who you ask. Isoroku Yamamoto and Chuichi Nagumo certainly thought otherwise (indeed, Yamamoto may have been posted to Combined Fleet to get him out of Tokyo where Fleet Faction members might have assassinated him for supporting the WNT). It's one of the few things they probably agreed upon, since the two men seem to have despised each other otherwise.

Not particularly. You're again making a reference to psychology. Capabilities is about what the enemy can do, not will. Just because someone probably can't win a war (after all, miracles are not strictly prohibited; sometimes the platoon does beat the battalion) does not mean they cannot start one and do considerable damage if you are not prepared to meet them. There is always an option for "everyone loses" after all. Just because the enemy outmans you does not mean you are necessarily incapable of defeating them; it certainly increases your risks a great deal but concentration, speed of maneuver, and good coordination can overcome a more numerous enemy, or at least greatly limit their options. (The Japanese failed that lesson, dispersing tactically, but more importantly dispersing strategically by failing to realize they needed to keep all six of their fleet carriers together to be sure they would have superiority in any individual engagement.)
I can tell you've read Shattered Sword. Might I suggest you augment that with a reading of Kaigun? That might help you realize how deeply unpopular the naval treaty system was in the Japanese navy. Yamamoto was chosen to be it's executioner in 1935, sent to London to present Japan's highly unrealistic demands so he could turn and leave when they were not taken seriously. I've come to wonder personally just how strong his resolve to defend the treaty was when four of the six carriers at Pearl harbor were post-treaty in if not design, then realization. But the split between the pro-treaty and anti-treaty faction was as old as the treaty itself-even while it was under negotiation, members of the Japanese delegation were split over the issue of 'we can't win if they go all out' versus 'we can't win if we let them dictate our building schedule.' All that changed over the next 15 years was the participants and the posts they held, the arguments went totally unchanged.

In any case, the very definition of the word 'enemy' entails a certain demarcation of intentions that a purely capability-based threat assessment lacks. After all, relatively few plans are drawn up to defend against one's allies or co-belligerents, even if one stiffs them on the subject of Macedonia (first and second Balkans War). What the enemy can do? The Cardassians can take up the torch of negative super-science, or they can ally with the Romulans and Klingons to carve us up, or they can open up a wormhole to a whole other quadrant of wealth, or they could have a magical change of heart. None of these are likely, but only because we use intentions in our examination of what their likely next move is. Getting inside your opponent's head is a major part of the tactical and the strategic. And to predict what they will do, knowing what they intend to do is vitally important.
 
So assuming the war doesn't end within the first six months, I'd rather not schedule the new round of Miranda refits at Vulcan. I'd be happy to start the refit wave in 2316 (when hopefully the war is over), but I don't want to plan on it only taking six months.

I think maybe we should just put refits on hold for the duration of the war, given that pulling Dryad from Lor'vela isn't an option.

So if that's what you think, why don't you post a plan that says that, vote for it, and ask other people to vote for it?
 
Because it doesn't matter what I think if I can't convince you to change your mind, Briefvoice. On account of how a dozen people voted for you rather early on, before I'd made up my mind, and I am highly unlikely to attract a dozen more votes than you do if there's a second round of votes coming in after I propose a new plan.

In any case, the very definition of the word 'enemy' entails a certain demarcation of intentions that a purely capability-based threat assessment lacks. After all, relatively few plans are drawn up to defend against one's allies or co-belligerents, even if one stiffs them on the subject of Macedonia (first and second Balkans War). What the enemy can do? The Cardassians can take up the torch of negative super-science, or they can ally with the Romulans and Klingons to carve us up, or they can open up a wormhole to a whole other quadrant of wealth, or they could have a magical change of heart. None of these are likely, but only because we use intentions in our examination of what their likely next move is. Getting inside your opponent's head is a major part of the tactical and the strategic. And to predict what they will do, knowing what they intend to do is vitally important.
This doesn't strike me as a very good argument. The point of "plan for capabilities" is extremely simple. Namely, make a plan that is based on the assumption that whatever an opponent assuredly can do to you, they will try to do to you. Prepare to cope with that outcome. Then, whatever they do, you are at least firmly grounded in that you have the strength to cope with their most obvious option: brute force.

To be sure, the opponent MIGHT pull all sorts of bizarre miracles out of a hat and do things you couldn't realistically have planned for. But they MIGHT do nearly anything. That's the entire point of NOT fixating on their intentions- because there will always be an element of guesswork in judging their intentions. It's impossible to guess and prepare for ALL the things that an opponent might somehow acquire the power to do to you.

But you can assuredly prepare for the simplest, most likely contingency- by ensuring that in a direct contest of raw strength, you have enough strength to win the contest, or at least fight it at equal odds.
_____________

Also... are you still arguing in favor of "we don't need to care how many ships the Cardassians have, when planning the size and composition of our own fleet?"

Because unless that is your thesis, this is rapidly becoming no more than an empty exercise in rhetoric.
 
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What this translates as, though, is that Task Force Three will be used, on the largest fleet and defensive concentrations the Licori present us with.

If either TF1 or TF2 run into resistance heavy enough to seriously endanger their ships, and TF3 is kept out of the battle, then we end up losing ships to no purpose- we invite defeat in detail, or at least an unnecessarily costly victory. So over the course of the campaign, I'd expect TF3 to show up for a large fraction of all the battles, including all the largest ones. Anything that could reasonably hope to put up a good fight against a Combat 30-40 force should see TF3 show up backing TF1 or TF2.

Given that TF3 will be used, then we're exposing its un-refitted Mirandas to risk, which is the point I was trying to make that launched this exchange. Your earlier wording implied that TF3 was not a particularly risky posting for such a fragile ship, due to the relatively low likelihood of seeing combat. But I think we can agree that the likelihood of TF3 seeing combat is actually very high. And that if TF3 does not see combat, then our entire strategy for the campaign is misguided, because it represents such a large share of our forces that keeping it out of battle would neutralize our numerical advantage.

Now, I am prepared to accept this risk; it's our business. But given that we've decided it's worth putting those ships in a heavy task force that will be ordered to fight in the largest battle(s) of the war, I'm not sure it's a good idea to precommit to pulling them back out of that task force until the war is over. Especially since, by the time the Miranda-As we have slated to 'replace' them show up, some of our other ships will already be out of action and we'll want reinforcements just to keep our strength up.

So assuming the war doesn't end within the first six months, I'd rather not schedule the new round of Miranda refits at Vulcan. I'd be happy to start the refit wave in 2316 (when hopefully the war is over), but I don't want to plan on it only taking six months.

I think maybe we should just put refits on hold for the duration of the war, given that pulling Dryad from Lor'vela isn't an option.

I don't agree with your conceptualization of the campaign at all.

The existence of TF3 puts the Licori in a bind that they cannot win. It does not have to be engaged to have this effect. The Licori can easily hole up the entire campaign and don't even have to fight even one Jutland-type battle, and we would still win because TF3 is sitting there on the outside going "come on out, I dare you". Other than the patrols group, TF3 is most certainly the safest force we have. In fact, given how the Tarestis went on about honor, I would expect any major fights we do have to happen for reasons much like Jutland. Now, we may force an orbital or two as well, but that's a total of three fights over the course of maybe 1.5 to 2 years.

Maybe Victoria Eaton takes a much more aggressive strategy than that, but even then, we'd expect TF1 and TF2 to get engaged much more than TF3 does.

And of course there's reinforcement. As is, TF3 combined with one of TF1 or TF2 is likely big enough to take on any concentrated enemy fleet even without one single Miranda in 0.5y or two Miranda in 1.5y. And we're about to pour in 4 Excelsiors and a bunch of Rennies to the LBZ forces over the same timeframe, so missing one Miranda in 0.5y and two in 1.5y is not going to make a major difference.
 
Because it doesn't matter what I think if I can't convince you to change your mind, Briefvoice. On account of how a dozen people voted for you rather early on, before I'd made up my mind, and I am highly unlikely to attract a dozen more votes than you do if there's a second round of votes coming in after I propose a new plan.

Nonsense. Votes in this thread routinely garner 30 or more voters. The fact that only 11 people have voted for my plan indicates that a lot of people aren't entirely sure or satisfied with it, but lack the time or in-depth understanding to make their own vote. Furthermore, the change you're making is simple to explain. "Hey, let's not start any new refits this year, but keep everything else the same."
 
Point.

I don't agree with your conceptualization of the campaign at all.

The existence of TF3 puts the Licori in a bind that they cannot win. It does not have to be engaged to have this effect. The Licori can easily hole up the entire campaign and don't even have to fight even one Jutland-type battle, and we would still win because TF3 is sitting there on the outside going "come on out, I dare you".
If that happens, then TF1 and TF2 are likely to get pretty heavily ground up by attrition. Because they'll still have to defeat most of the Licori species' fixed defenses and ships, and TF3 won't be showing up to help them do it at any specific point.

Maybe Victoria Eaton takes a much more aggressive strategy than that, but even then, we'd expect TF1 and TF2 to get engaged much more than TF3 does.
I expect TF1 and TF2 to be engaged much more often, but for TF3 to be engaged more heavily. Furthermore, TF3 is being called on to participate in actions related to both task forces. If TF1 and TF2 both fight three battles, and TF3 only shows up for the biggest one each... well, TF3 is fighting in the two biggest battles of a war that contains six. Compared to one big and two little battles for TF1 and TF2, that's not a safe posting.

I never thought TF3 was a 'safe' posting. And insofar as it turns out to be one, it means we're withholding the bulk of our strength and leaving Nash and Thuir in unnecessary danger by over-exposing them to fight the enemy with significantly reduced force. So if it turns out that we do things as you outline, and TF3 actually does wind up seeing drastically less action than the others, I'm going to have a lot of buyer's remorse over that strategy. Especially if it leads to disproportionate losses among TF1 and TF2, as seems likely.
 
[X][BUILD] 2315 2 Excelsior-A, 1 Renaissance, Make the Vulcans Repair Everything
  • SF Berth A (3mt) – Leave empty after Kumari completes repairs (ETC 2316.Q2) and do not resume NCC-1665 Miranda-A build. Advise berth to prepare for Ambassador prototype in 2316
  • SF Berth 1 (1mt) – Occupied with Miranda-A double build using Chen's bonus (ETC 2316.Q1)
  • SF Berth 2 (1mt) - Occupied with Miranda-A double build using Chen's bonus (ETC 2316.Q1)
  • 40 Eridani Berth A (3mt) – Leave empty after Courageous refit completes (with rush, ETC 2315.Q2), to make room for other war-damaged ships.
  • 40 Eridani Berth B (3mt) – Leave empty, to make room for repairs from Licori War.
  • 40 Eridani Berth 1 (1mt) – After Intrepid completes refit as Miranda-A in 2315.Q3, leave empty to expedite repairs from Licori War.
  • 40 Eridani Berth 2 (1mt) - After Eketha completes refit as Miranda-A in 2315.Q3, leave empty to expedite repairs from Licori War.
  • Ana Font Berth A (2.5mt) - Occupied with Excelsior build (ETC 2317.Q1)
  • Ana Font Berth 1 (1mt) - Occupied with Renaissance build (ETC 2317.Q2)
  • LOCF Berth A (2.5mt) – Leave empty. Advise Lor'Vela to prepare for Excelsior refits in 2316.
  • LOCF Berth 1 (1mt) – Begin Renaissance build in 2315.Q2 (ETC 2318.Q2)
  • UP Berth A (3mt) – After Excelsior completes in 2315.Q2, begin Excelsior-A in 2315.Q2 as double build using Chen's bonus (ETC 2318.Q2)
  • UP Berth B (3mt) - Occupied with Excelsior build (ETC 2317.Q1)
  • UP Berth C (3mt) - After Excelsior completes in 2315.Q2, begin Excelsior-A in 2315.Q2 as double build using Chen's bonus (ETC 2318.Q2)
  • UP Berth 1 (1mt) – Occupied with Renaissance under construction as triple build using Chen's bonus (ETC 2316.Q3)
  • UP Berth 2 (1mt) - Occupied with Renaissance under construction as triple build using Chen's bonus (ETC 2316.Q3)
  • UP Berth 3 (1mt) - Occupied with Renaissance under construction as triple build using Chen's bonus (ETC 2316.Q3)
So basically, this plan is just like @Briefvoice 's plan, except we don't pull a pair of Mirandas out of the Licori Border Zone in 2315Q3 to start refitting them. We have all four berths in the 40 Eridani shipyard (at Vulcan) clear for repairs by the end of 2315Q2. This will hopefully prevent us from building up too much of a backlog in repairs during the course of the year. This results in us delaying the Miranda-A refit program a bit, but frankly we'd probably have had to do this anyway just because of battle-damage overwhelming the smaller number of berths we would otherwise be leaving empty.

Also, if the Vulcans are going to be so cranky about actually fighting the Licori, at least they can patch up all the holes the Licori shoot in the other member worlds' ships. :p
 
Point.

If that happens, then TF1 and TF2 are likely to get pretty heavily ground up by attrition. Because they'll still have to defeat most of the Licori species' fixed defenses and ships, and TF3 won't be showing up to help them do it at any specific point.

I expect TF1 and TF2 to be engaged much more often, but for TF3 to be engaged more heavily. Furthermore, TF3 is being called on to participate in actions related to both task forces. If TF1 and TF2 both fight three battles, and TF3 only shows up for the biggest one each... well, TF3 is fighting in the two biggest battles of a war that contains six. Compared to one big and two little battles for TF1 and TF2, that's not a safe posting.

I never thought TF3 was a 'safe' posting. And insofar as it turns out to be one, it means we're withholding the bulk of our strength and leaving Nash and Thuir in unnecessary danger by over-exposing them to fight the enemy with significantly reduced force. So if it turns out that we do things as you outline, and TF3 actually does wind up seeing drastically less action than the others, I'm going to have a lot of buyer's remorse over that strategy. Especially if it leads to disproportionate losses among TF1 and TF2, as seems likely.

My prediction is that TF1 and TF2 with more engagement, are going to be damaged more often, yes. If you compare the skirmish fights (Saratoga, Revak's force, High Queen's force) to the fuller fights (Deva, Lora) then, especially after shield pen was introduced, I don't see a significant difference in the relative damage after accounting for the relative length of combat. I agree with your analysis that TF1 and TF2 may fight 3 battles each and TF3 may fight two of those six, but that would mean 1.5x the damage to TF1 and TF2 that TF3 receives.

Orbital fights are probably the riskiest though, because they go until victory even if you're winning, rather than until flight. So it depends how many orbitals Eaton wants.


And really. It's one Miranda this year. One.

We can Federalize a M-A to cover it if we're really freaking out. Which I don't think most of us are. For one measly war support point.
 
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I honestly think that if T'Lorel's doing her job right, and if TF1 or TF2 gets into anything that looks even close to an even fight, she'll detach one of her two task forces to back them up.

Battles where the odds are close to even result in higher relative length, even if we win. Which results in more damage for us.
 
A lot of ships participated in the Biophage battles, and I'm pretty sure all or nearly all of our stock Mirandas are of the same age, and so would be about equally in need of a refit.

We only had 2 Mirandas and 2 Centaurs (our only 2 at the time) that joined the battle fleet, with the remaining Mirandas off patrolling and occasionally being preyed upon (Miracht). Of those, we lost Faithless (Miranda) and Centaur (...Centaur). Svai was disabled in the first battle, while Yukikaze was made blooded and famous for being the only frigate alongside T'Mir to survive the whole series of Kadeshi battles.

I just was surprised that given the ordeal Svai went through, she never got further attention or priority for refits.

Now, we may force an orbital or two as well, but that's a total of three fights over the course of maybe 1.5 to 2 years.

If you're suggesting that the war will take 1.5 to 2 years, I don't think we can politically afford to have the war last that long, never mind our other obligations. . At best, I'd expect the member fleets to withdraw their forces and garrison requirements to be reinstated sometime in 2316 or whenever war support drops too low, or else suffer large political costs.

So we may be forced to use TF3 to initiate a base strike or be otherwise more aggressive, despite any preference to safely chip away at Licori production and infrastructure - this was called out by Starfleet tactical earlier:
We have recommended an approach that destroys the infrastructure as opposed to a direct force-on-force confrontation in order to avoid "poisoning the well" of post-bellum relations, as well as to avoid situations where potential "superweapons" may inflict disproportionate losses on Starfleet. Despite this, we do recognise that a policy of go-slow may be politically untenable, and may even heighten the danger from rogue mentats.
 
@lbmaian , what do you think of my plan? It's designed to set us up for pretty much anything we may choose to do in 2316Q1 by leaving us several open berths to play with, and gives us a fairly large amount of repair capacity to use. The downside is mainly that it delays the Miranda-A refit program.

As to Svai, I'm not entirely sure why she wasn't picked for refit earlier in the program. Where was she deployed? Maybe she was in a sector where we couldn't really afford to pull the ship out.
 
@lbmaian , what do you think of my plan? It's designed to set us up for pretty much anything we may choose to do in 2316Q1 by leaving us several open berths to play with, and gives us a fairly large amount of repair capacity to use. The downside is mainly that it delays the Miranda-A refit program.

As to Svai, I'm not entirely sure why she wasn't picked for refit earlier in the program. Where was she deployed? Maybe she was in a sector where we couldn't really afford to pull the ship out.

Well, I can see the possible benefit of having 40 Eridani berths all free starting 2316.

I don't think the repair capacity is a much of a concern, since we're likely able to bump builds that haven't even started yet. Heck they can even bump builds that have already started.

That said, I'd prefer refitting at least one Miranda this year. Perhaps Svai :D

I think we can safely refit it in Andor's Lor'Vela 2.5mt berth:
 
The most obvious moves I can see would be for Eaton to designate the Gaeni as a third 'roving' task force equivalent to TF1 and TF2... OR to fold the Gaeni in as TF 3.3 and cut 3.2 or 3.1 loose as a roving task force in its own right.

Well, I can see the possible benefit of having 40 Eridani berths all free starting 2316.

I don't think the repair capacity is a much of a concern, since we're likely able to bump builds that haven't even started yet. Heck they can even bump builds that have already started.

That said, I'd prefer refitting at least one Miranda this year. Perhaps Svai :D
[closes eyes, sighs]

Well, at this point I think it's pretty obvious Briefvoice's plan is going to win, so I'll just save my breath.
 
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I suspect voting will be pretty depressed with the whole Easter weekend. I'm taking the opportunity to add some of the engine features I've been looking into for a while.

Imposing a little more narrative structure onto battles, making things a little more randomly lethal and unpredictable.

Fun times \o/

(Sorry Simon_Jester)
 
What impact will our campaign have to the Ked Paddah? They will have a front seat watching the Federation conduct war.
 
I'm happy to see narrative structure in battles as long as it's *interesting* narrative structure (that can be used to make omakes, for instance), and that *makes sense* (it doesn't just randomly have people doing stupid things, e.g. artificially dividing up their fleet into chunks in ways that don't fit the tactics of the situation)
 
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