To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

[Void Stalker]

@OneirosTheWriter for the MWCO report this quarter can you include member ships under repair with ETR times? Right now Apiata had 3 stingers and Amarkia 2 Herbinda that are undergoing repairs and I do not believe we know when those will be done. Also are the Amarkia taking the opportunity to refit the two Herbinda under going repairs? They have the 2 refits that just finished with a Herbinda-A under construction.

Member World Coordination Office

[MWCO NB: only 2 Vulcan and 1 Andorian Miranda are yet to be refitted to the Miranda-A model]

Commissioned:
Andor - 2 Miranda-A Refits (now at 4/5 total)
Vulcan - 2x1mt Berths @ Atatan (Hanath-Cho)
Tellar - 1 Cargo Ship
Humans - UES Oslo Centaur-A (NCC-2126), 1 Cargo Ship
Amarki - Refit [CAS Hebrinda, Hilindia] CAS Cafritraia Centaur-A (NCC-2128), 1 Cargo Ship, 1 Civilian Ship
Betazed -
Caitian - CSS Nisharr Excelsior (NCC-2019), 1 Hospital Ship, 1 Prospector, 1 Civilian Ship, 2x600kt Berths @ Ferasa (S'Harrhr Auxiliary Yard)
Rigel -
Apiata - Queenship Sisterhood (NCC-3107), Stinger Harzzira (NCC-3219), 2 Bumblebee
Risa -
Gaeni - 1 Berth upgraded to 600kt @ Gaen VI [Colonial Yard 1], 1 600kt Berth @ Thunti II [Colonial Yard 2[
Caldonia - 1 Cargo Ship
Indoria - ICS Bellow Combat Escort (NCC-3416), 1 Cargo Ship
Seyek - 1 Cruiser, 1 Super-Freighter, 1 Cargo Ship
Orions - 2xBerth Upgrades 600kt->800kt @ Alukk
Qloath - 1 Arquila Leb Hoiathi, 1 Cargo Ship
Honiani - 1 Reliquary, 1 Civilian Freighter

Member World Coordination Office Supplementary

The Amarkian navy is rushing the two newly refitted Hebrinda-A class vessels to the GBZ to replace the damaged CAS Jolintoor and Odala.

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So some comments on this section: Herbinda-A have +1 C and +1 S vs the non refit so those will perform a bit better and may surprise the Cardassians, oh and they finished a Centaur-A as well for another solid escort. Apiata finished a stinger and queenship, once the three under repair finish I am hoping they will send either the new queenship or a little queenship with another pair of stingers to increase their total force there. Indoria also finished a combat escort, and the Seyek Cruiser is actually a cap ship comparable to an Excelsior (C 7 L 5 H 3). They now have 4 cruisers commissioned along with the Sign, their battleship. Qloathi added a C 4 L 3 H 3 escort and have two yards that are staggered to finish one per year. So some nice increases to members and affiliates facing the cardassians.

To the south, the Caitians finished off the Excelsior which will go into battle with their swarmers, always nice.

Amongst the original 4, Humans finished a Centaur-A and Andorians finished refitting 2 Mirandas.

Ships have been updated though there may be some Starfleet ships that have finished repairs that are still listed as undergoing repairs. I will have to check that, plus the 3 stingers and 2 herbindas undergoing repairs by the Apiata and Amarkia. Still not including the ships under repairs, Starfleet and members now have a total C of 710, 446 H and 716 L amongst 214 ships. Our affiliates (not including Yan Ros who we do not have numbers for) have another 91 ships with 301 C, 177 H and 237 L amongst them.

To Boldly Go Civilian
To Boldly Go Members

For repairs I have
Starfleet:
2 Excelsiors (Courageous which is undergoing refit as well I believe and the Endurance)
3 Connie-B
1 Constellation
3 Miranda-A

Apiata:
3 Stingers

Amarkia:
2 Herbinda (may be undergoing refit as well)


Andor and Vulcan navies both have a Soyuz and a Miranda active (Vulcans also have a second Miranda under going refit).

We may want to consider a Constellation refit so that our members can start refitting theirs this snakepit.

 

[SynchronizedWritersBlock]

I assume you mean 3.5 to 6.5 years until they launch an attack? Let me ask... what do you think their war aims would be?

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Resources. It seems to me that the current build push is likely not sustainable long-term. I believe that in any Cardassian war the Cardassians would attempt to obtain resource-rich areas or clients through conquest and occupation, as demonstrated in their treatment of Bajor. They would also seek to force the Federation into accepting a humiliating and disadvantageous peace treaty as a way of demonstrating superiority of their methods, if not to us than to themselves.

My view is that a wildly successful war from the Cardassian perspective ends with the Apiata, Indorians, and Seyek conquered (or fractured in the case of the Seyek), all Federation colonies and facilities in those spaces seized or ceded by treaty, and our GBZ holdings seized or ceded by treaty, which would re-open the corridor from Sydraxian space to resource shipments.


e: And this ceding of colonies is supported canonically by the treaties that led to the formation of the Maquis.

 

[Vehrec]

...is that particularly relevant to needing to counter their building efforts? Regardless of how they intend to use it, their navy exists. Plan for capabilities, not intentions.

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You know, the Japanese planned for capabilities, not intentions, and created the very intentions that lead them into war that utterly destroyed them due to their constant obsession with the United States. Just saying.

 

[Night]

You know, the Japanese planned for capabilities, not intentions,

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If that had actually happened they would have never abrogated the Washington Naval Treaty, which protected them from the capabilities of American industry far better than they could protect themselves by artificially capping American shipbuilding.

They would also have never gone to war in the first place because in terms of capabilities they were utterly outmatched. They planned for intentions; specifically, that America would not be strongly motivated to fight them and their barrier defense would, after some great victory, enable them to inflict losses the US was not prepared to sustain in a moral rather than a physical sense. The United States had the industrial and manpower resources to sustain any possible loss ratio Japan had the ability to inflict.

If you really want to have this argument I'm happy to do so, but you'll lose.

 

[Briefvoice]

Resources. It seems to me that the current build push is likely not sustainable long-term. I believe that in any Cardassian war the Cardassians would attempt to obtain resource-rich areas or clients through conquest and occupation, as demonstrated in their treatment of Bajor. They would also seek to force the Federation into accepting a humiliating and disadvantageous peace treaty as a way of demonstrating superiority of their methods, if not to us than to themselves.

My view is that a wildly successful war from the Cardassian perspective ends with the Apiata, Indorians, and Seyek conquered (or fractured in the case of the Seyek), all Federation colonies and facilities in those spaces seized or ceded by treaty, and our GBZ holdings seized or ceded by treaty, which would re-open the corridor from Sydraxian space to resource shipments.

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Based on that, it sounds like we should make a starbase in Indoria, a second one in the CBZ, and whatever we can construct in Gabriel a priority over the next few years, even at the surcharge. Additionally, we're going to want to make the CBZ and GBZ and maybe the SBZ major fleet basing areas as Forward Defense rebalances our requirements. If this is a war over resources, the best way to wind may be to grind it out, keeping to the defensive and waiting for the Cardassian economy to collapse.

 

[Briefvoice]

Ships have been updated though there may be some Starfleet ships that have finished repairs that are still listed as undergoing repairs. I will have to check that, plus the 3 stingers and 2 herbindas undergoing repairs by the Apiata and Amarkia. Still not including the ships under repairs, Starfleet and members now have a total C of 710, 446 H and 716 L amongst 214 ships. Our affiliates (not including Yan Ros who we do not have numbers for) have another 91 ships with 301 C, 177 H and 237 L amongst them.

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The Yan Ros have been confirmed as not possessing any combat capable starships. They depend on isolation and a treaty with the Honiani for naval protection.

For repairs I have
Starfleet:
2 Excelsiors (Courageous which is undergoing refit as well I believe and the Endurance)
3 Connie-B
1 Constellation
3 Miranda-A

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The three Connie-B repairs should all be complete as of this quarter per my estimates. The two Excelsior in repair are the Kumari (not the Endurance) and the Courageous. Both will be finished in Q2.

We may want to consider a Constellation refit so that our members can start refitting theirs this snakepit.

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I agree that this is the Snakepit to request a Constellation refit.

 

[SynchronizedWritersBlock]

Yes, I definitely agree that a SB in Indoria would be ideal as a fallback for SB9. I would suggest Grrizzi as a second CBZ starbase location, giving Apinae the defense in depth that the SB9/Indoria formation would have. A GBZ starbase would make some sense too.

We should throw caution to the wind and diplo push those new guys we found between the Seyek and Cardassia to affiliate this year and next. The Cardassians are committed to this build plan, I don't see them committing an occupation force that way. Politically, a Sousa Deal may allow us to bypass the Moratorium on new members by asking that any affiliates at 500-level be allowed to integrate militarily only? That would let us push the Seyek and Q'Loathi.

I also just posted an improved Miranda design in the SDB thread, we could potentially order it this Snakepit.

e: Some of these are probably too much, but I'm just trying to catalog all our options.

 

[Briefvoice]

We should throw caution to the wind and diplo push those new guys we found between the Seyek and Cardassia to affiliate this year and next. The Cardassians are committed to this build plan, I don't see them committing an occupation force that way.

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Agree on that.

I also just posted an improved Miranda design in the SDB thread, we could potentially order it this Snakepit.

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My understanding is that for a new design, we first have to change the ship requirements in the tactical session, and only then can we order a new ship design in the snakepit. But I don't know; maybe we can order it?

 

[SynchronizedWritersBlock]

My understanding is that for a new design, we first have to change the ship requirements in the tactical session, and only then can we order a new ship design in the snakepit. But I don't know; maybe we can order it?

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• Request Start of Combat Frigate project, receiving one-off boost of Research Points and go-ahead for some projects, 25pp

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Not if it fits the existing Combat Frigate requirements, which it does!

e: It's not really a big deal though. +3 combat stats over the Miri-A, which we aren't even building at full capacity given by our empty berths.

 

[Void Stalker]

The Yan Ros have been confirmed as not possessing any combat capable starships. They depend on isolation and a treaty with the Honiani for naval protection.



The three Connie-B repairs should all be complete as of this quarter per my estimates. The two Excelsior in repair are the Kumari (not the Endurance) and the Courageous. Both will be finished in Q2.



I agree that this is the Snakepit to request a Constellation refit.

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Thanks. I guess I will go back through last year and try to figure out when those Miranda's and Constellation finish repairs. I may need to add a repair tab to keep track of ships undergoing repairs currently as combat heats up more.

Yes, I definitely agree that a SB in Indoria would be ideal as a fallback for SB9. I would suggest Grrizzi as a second CBZ starbase location, giving Apinae the defense in depth that the SB9/Indoria formation would have. A GBZ starbase would make some sense too.

We should throw caution to the wind and diplo push those new guys we found between the Seyek and Cardassia to affiliate this year and next. The Cardassians are committed to this build plan, I don't see them committing an occupation force that way. Politically, a Sousa Deal may allow us to bypass the Moratorium on new members by asking that any affiliates at 500-level be allowed to integrate militarily only? That would let us push the Seyek and Q'Loathi.

I also just posted an improved Miranda design in the SDB thread, we could potentially order it this Snakepit.

e: Some of these are probably too much, but I'm just trying to catalog all our options.

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We found two new races this year and I would like to push both of them. As for the Starbases getting one in Indoria would be great, but a 3rd in that sector would be pricey.

As for the Sousa deal, I am not inclined to do so, we only have two and a half years left on the moratorium and we already have examples with the Gaeni of being able to integrate affiliate militaries. I imagine getting affiliates to 500 would make it easy to do so during a state of emergency.

These are the neutral races without issues:
Laio 75/100
Obar 65/100
Ashidi 50/100
Sotaw 35/100
Ked Paddah 35/100
Ittick-ka 25/100

Obar, Ashidi and Laio are my preferences with Ked Peddah if we can afford to do 4 pushes. Obar and Ashidi at a minimum, though the Laio are near the Licori.

 

[Ato]

[X][NAME1] Iaspa
[X][NAME2] Erizzael

Whilst Pathfinder and Sojourner might make good names for lesser ships, I feel they lack sufficient gravitas for our capital ships.

Iaspa is a name someone came up with previously on this thread ( I forget who sorry), which is the name of "the first warp-capable Amarki starship. Itself named after the sword of a legendary hero who gave it to a star goddess as a marriage proposal."

Erizzael is an Apiata name I have made up that is an Apiata cultural concept of love of community and hope for the future.

[X][BUILD] 2315 2 Excelsior-A, 1 Renaissance, 2 Miranda-A refits

 

[SynchronizedWritersBlock]

We found two new races this year and I would like to push both of them. As for the Starbases getting one in Indoria would be great, but a 3rd in that sector would be pricey.

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The third would be CBZ, not Apinae Sector. Grrizzi is an Apinae colony in the CBZ.

As for the Sousa deal, I am not inclined to do so, we only have two and a half years left on the moratorium and we already have examples with the Gaeni of being able to integrate affiliate militaries. I imagine getting affiliates to 500 would make it easy to do so during a state of emergency.

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Yes, that's fair, was just trying to see all our options.

These are the neutral races without issues:
Laio 75/100
Obar 65/100
Ashidi 50/100
Sotaw 35/100
Ked Paddah 35/100
Ittick-ka 25/100

Obar, Ashidi and Laio are my preferences with Ked Peddah if we can afford to do 4 pushes. Obar and Ashidi at a minimum, though the Laio are near the Licori.

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Y'Rillians, Ashidi, Ked Paddah for me. Now is THE time to flip the Y'Rillians, with the Sydraxians crippled for a few years and the Cardassians occupied. Would consider Gretarians as the 4th perhaps.

The Laio make some sense but being new to warp travel they won't be able to do much, and we can half strength push them monthly using external diplo teams which is relevant to the emergency if we think they should be involved. Same for the Ked Paddah actually.

 

[Void Stalker]

The third would be CBZ, not Apinae Sector. Grrizzi is an Apinae colony in the CBZ.



Yes, that's fair, was just trying to see all our options.



Y'Rillians, Ashidi, Ked Paddah for me. Would consider Gretarians as the 4th perhaps.

The Laio make some sense but being new to warp travel they won't be able to do much, and we can half strength push them monthly using external diplo teams which is relevant to the emergency if we think they should be involved.

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Ah, CBZ makes sense. They also act as sensor platforms and can do some repairs, which will help in the GBZ

Pushes I want the Obar as well, they are Coreward (north on the maps) so helps extending our knowledge out that way. And by their introduction through the Honiani they just seem really neat. Still we are getting the random push on a neutral, so if that moves Obar, Laio or Ashidi into affiliation range then I think they become priorities.

As it is I am hoping to do some half strength pushes on the Ked Peddah to get them more tied into our moves against the Licori both during the conflict and afterwards.

On and on another note, looking back at the repair times for the 3 Miranda's and the Challorn they should finish repairs in Q2 and be back in service during Q3.

 

[Briefvoice]

These are the neutral races without issues:
Laio 75/100
Obar 65/100
Ashidi 50/100
Sotaw 35/100
Ked Paddah 35/100
Ittick-ka 25/100

Obar, Ashidi and Laio are my preferences with Ked Peddah if we can afford to do 4 pushes. Obar and Ashidi at a minimum, though the Laio are near the Licori.

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Four pushes is 80 pp... that's a big cost! I'd be inclined to say only the Anshidi are really critical of the new races, as they are already Konen trading partners. I'd like to keep to two diplo-pushes a year and pick one of the others to do next. Of the options:
1. The Laio have a good chance of being pushed to affiliate status, but are low tech and very small in territory/resources.
2. The Obar are super far away. It's months of travel just to get there. We may want to wait until our expansion naturally takes us into their area.
3. The Ittick-ka are impossible and I see no reason to change policy on the Sotaw.
4. The Ked Paddah are a possibility, but we could half-strength dplo-push them as part of the war effort instead. What else would we do with those external diplomat teams anyway?
5. We could also do another push on the Yrillians to get them above 300 status and maybe tip them to favoring the Federation instead of the Cardassians.

 

[SynchronizedWritersBlock]

The Laoi can be pushed under the SOE and we would even have justification for doing so, if for no other reason as to keep them appraised, which is about all that matters with them being low-tech. Might want another External team in a few months for that, no rush though.

 

[Void Stalker]

Four pushes is 80 pp... that's a big cost! I'd be inclined to say only the Anshidi are really critical of the new races, as they are already Konen trading partners. I'd like to keep to two diplo-pushes a year and pick one of the others to do next. Of the options:
1. The Laio have a good chance of being pushed to affiliate status, but are low tech and very small in territory/resources.
2. The Obar are super far away. It's months of travel just to get there. We may want to wait until our expansion naturally takes us into their area.
3. The Ittick-ka are impossible and I see no reason to change policy on the Sotaw.
4. The Ked Paddah are a possibility, but we could half-strength dplo-push them as part of the war effort instead. What else would we do with those external diplomat teams anyway?
5. We could also do another push on the Yrillians to get them above 300 status and maybe tip them to favoring the Federation instead of the Cardassians.

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We do get the one random annual roll a year to a neutral race so if that hits on the Laio, Obar or Anshidi then those go up in priority as a diplo push is likely to make them affiliates (so guaranteed annual roll, plus one less contestant for the neutral roll, and we start getting some crew from them). Combined with in the past if the diplo push moves them into affiliate status then they get a roll each quarter which can move them up quite a bit. As is I want at least 2, Anshidi is my top one, Obar, Laio and Yrillians would be my choices for any other diplo pushes.

Ked Peddah we should use the external diplo teams for half pushes.

 

[Random Member]

We could always push the Gretarians if people feel like taking that risk!

 

[SynchronizedWritersBlock]

We could always push the Gretarians if people feel like taking that risk!

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I want to. I do. But where would we get the ships to intervene if we forced Sydraxian action?

 

[Thebigpieman]

I want to. I do. But where would we get the ships to intervene if we forced Sydraxian action?

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Pretty much. I want to get them out from under the Sydraxians but we're not in a position to do so.

 

[Void Stalker]

We could always push the Gretarians if people feel like taking that risk!

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If we did not have the Licori issue going on then yes, but right now are ships our tied up. Once the Licori issue is over we can revisit, or if we get the Yrillians to become affiliates.

 

[Nervos Belli]

I want to. I do. But where would we get the ships to intervene if we forced Sydraxian action?

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How many ships can the Sydraxians realistically send, though? They lost five ships, and should have another four still undergoing repairs. If we pulled 10-15 C from the GBZ and combined it with our forces in the SBZ then I think they would have to back off. Worst case scenario, we've got two Excelsiors finishing Q2 and we could divert one or both of them away from the Licori war for a quarter without risking too much in the LBZ.

Our intel suggests the Sydraxians are licking their wounds and forting up at the moment. The political willpower to fight another battle, this time not even in defense of Sydraxian territory may not be there.

 

[Simon_Jester]

@Nervos Belli ...

That's actually a good point, the Sydraxians just MIGHT have pulled their necks in so far we could get away with it. Unfortunately, right now the SBZ fleet consists of Seleya and Yukikaze, a force so small even what's left of the Sydraxian navy can probably polish it off. For that matter the Sydraxians could just whistle up some of their Yrillian pirate friends (who've been the muscle in their protection racket with the Gretarians for as long as we can remember) and do it without committing a single ship.

If we can put one of the new explorers up there, and scrape loose even a few more frigates or cruiser(s), I'd say go for it.
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Pushing the Gretarians would definitely be a great idea for something to do if the Licori had come down with a sudden rush of common sense to the brain and acceded to our ultimatum- because we could use a portion of the fleet we mobilized to fight the Licori as our roving fire brigate if the Sydraxians attacked the Gretarians.

Sadly, that's not what happened.

You know, the Japanese planned for capabilities, not intentions, and created the very intentions that lead them into war that utterly destroyed them due to their constant obsession with the United States. Just saying.

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"Plan for capabilities, not intentions" doesn't mean "plan to fight people regardless of whether they outgun you." It means "plan to have the tools to do the jobs you may be forced to do."

See, we can predict the size of the Cardassian fleet just by looking at it and counting and doing some basic math. We cannot possibly predict whether the Cardassians plan to attack us now, soon, much later, or never. Wishful thinking is far more likely to cloud our analysis of their intentions than of our capabilities.

Their intentions are speculation. Their capabilities are fact, and we have every reason to think they'd attack us if they felt safe doing so, because in the opening rounds of our interaction with them they did. We can't prove they intend to try that again, or that they don't intend to try it, or what is on their minds; even the Konen presumably never got that good at reading the Cardassians' intentions and they're literally psychic.

But at a bare practical minimum, it would be folly NOT to plan for a military fleet big enough to stop the Cardassians if they decide to attack us. That would be like neglecting to get car insurance or something- a heedlessness of consequences so great that it shades over into recklessness.

Four pushes is 80 pp... that's a big cost! I'd be inclined to say only the Anshidi are really critical of the new races, as they are already Konen trading partners. I'd like to keep to two diplo-pushes a year and pick one of the others to do next. Of the options:
1. The Laio have a good chance of being pushed to affiliate status, but are low tech and very small in territory/resources.
2. The Obar are super far away. It's months of travel just to get there. We may want to wait until our expansion naturally takes us into their area.
3. The Ittick-ka are impossible and I see no reason to change policy on the Sotaw.
4. The Ked Paddah are a possibility, but we could half-strength dplo-push them as part of the war effort instead. What else would we do with those external diplomat teams anyway?
5. We could also do another push on the Yrillians to get them above 300 status and maybe tip them to favoring the Federation instead of the Cardassians.

Click to shrink...

I'd really like to keep pushing the Yrillians and the Anshidi. I'd actually like to try building diplomacy with the Ittick-ka (again, if we don't reach out to them, the Cardies will)

 

[Vehrec]

If that had actually happened they would have never abrogated the Washington Naval Treaty, which protected them from the capabilities of American industry far better than they could protect themselves by artificially capping American shipbuilding.

They would also have never gone to war in the first place because in terms of capabilities they were utterly outmatched. They planned for intentions; specifically, that America would not be strongly motivated to fight them and their barrier defense would, after some great victory, enable them to inflict losses the US was not prepared to sustain in a moral rather than a physical sense. The United States had the industrial and manpower resources to sustain any possible loss ratio Japan had the ability to inflict.

If you really want to have this argument I'm happy to do so, but you'll lose.

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If you only go to war when you have superior capability, you become predictable and bow your head to the hegemony. And I sincerely doubt you think that, if the Cardassians out-build us and win the wars of the shipyards, we should adopt a submissive or timid posture. The Japanese chose the US as their theoretical enemy because of it's overwhelming material superiority, not in spite of it. The Eight-Eight fleet and 70% fleet strength ratio were products of that inferiority, and during the Washington Naval treaty era, that inferiority was enshrined in the very treaty itself. Bow your head, and do not disturb the mighty, for you are inferior it may have well have said. So they sought to build capabilities in other ways-in the special-type destroyers, in Heavy cruisers, in night-fighting and aviation. When they finally attacked the United States, they did so because of the perceived threat to their seizure of Java, and because after all, that was what they had built up their own Capability for. They adhered strictly to the adage to 'lick gall and lie on kindling' and expected to seize the day with their skill and carefully hoarded capability. They broke with the treaty because of rising resentment and militarism, but also because they dreamed of stealing a leap upon the United States with Yamato, and using it to overpower the US's ships.

And if their own history taught them that more powerful states would collapse under their own weight after a great Japanese victory, was that not the obvious lesson of the Sino and Russo-Japanese wars? Had they not been the underdogs with carefully hoarded strength in both of those conflicts? We know now that's wishful thinking, but another word for wishful thinking is 'optimism'. The capabilities of a nation are not in it's factories and economy alone, but are manifold in it's people. The Roman Empire was smashed by barbarians and the ascendant Muslim conquest, China was subjugated by the Mongols, but even with all of china under their dominion they themselves could not touch Japan. Even the grinding terror of the First World War taught them the important lesson that yes, force does work, that you can use military might to bend the world to your whims. If they missed the auxiliary lessons...

Well, they weren't the only ones obsessed with Dreadnaughts despite the rather dismal action at Jutland.

 

[SynchronizedWritersBlock]

I'd actually like to try building diplomacy with the Ittick-ka (again, if we don't reach out to them, the Cardies will)

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I'm going to trust our xenopsych people who say it won't happen, I'd like another contact with them anyway and at least the location of a planet before we try again.

 

[Simon_Jester]

I'm going to trust our xenopsych people who say it won't happen, I'd like another contact with them anyway and at least the location of a planet before we try again.

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Since we never really got the briefing on what went wrong and why, I'm not sure what to make of that.

What I want is "improve relations with the Ittick-ka, somehow, some way." A diplomatic push is supposed to be along those lines, so I'd THINK that it would result in Starfleet and the FDS doing whatever they think is required to succeed in negotiations with the Ittick-ka, or at least get them to exchange 'hellos.'

If you only go to war when you have superior capability, you become predictable and bow your head to the hegemony. And I sincerely doubt you think that, if the Cardassians out-build us and win the wars of the shipyards, we should adopt a submissive or timid posture. The Japanese chose the US as their theoretical enemy because of it's overwhelming material superiority, not in spite of it...

And if their own history taught them that more powerful states would collapse under their own weight after a great Japanese victory, was that not the obvious lesson of the Sino and Russo-Japanese wars? Had they not been the underdogs with carefully hoarded strength in both of those conflicts? We know now that's wishful thinking, but another word for wishful thinking is 'optimism'. The capabilities of a nation are not in it's factories and economy alone, but are manifold in it's people.

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Then that is not an accurate fit for "plan for capabilities, not for intentions."

Because a nation's willpower and resolve to fight is entirely an aspect of the nation's intentions. It is not a thing that can be objectively measured and tallied up in advance, especially not by a bunch of foreign outsiders on the other side of the planet.

In terms of planning for the US's capabilities, Japan had no answer, because there was simply no way they could build enough heavy metal to defeat the size of fleet the US could mobilize against them. Literally their entire strategy was based around striking at US intentions, by forcing the US to surrender by destroying its desire to make war, even if the ability remained.

That is exactly how NOT to plan your military and its strategy.

We should never assume we know what our opponents will do, or refrain from doing. We should simply prepare so that if our opponents do something we need to resist, that the means to resist effectively will already be in place.

So basically, you clearly have a good understanding of how Japan wound up fighting the US. But you're misusing the term "plan for capabilities, not for intentions" to describe that process.