To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

[tryrar]

It's perfectly possible for everyone else to be wrong. The prior probability for that is low, but everyone else simply states a conventional understanding without ever mentioning any practical reasons at all that is only good evidence for such a conventional understanding existing, not for this conventional understanding being universal, let alone at all reasonable. I did bring up several practical considerations as well as some theoretical considerations for why that conventional understanding is in fact unreasonable. As for my opinion, I'm 98% certain that this is the most wrong-headed opinion I heard all year. To avoid future misunderstandings I added a signature.


Subjective uncertainty follows all axioms of Cox' Theorem and is therefore mathematically speaking perfectly reasonable to model as probability.

Click to shrink...

......."it's perfectly possible for everyone else to be wrong". Aaaaand this is where I decide to simpyl ignore you from now on. I was going to debate you on your percentages as @Simon_Jester asked, but then you had to be condescending...

 

[Nervos Belli]

Alas for them, they've had to learn.

Click to shrink...

I read that as them becoming used to the presence of weapons on other species ships, not the use of weapons themselves.

 

[Glassware]

Diplomancing the Yrillians to quit the protection racket while agitating for the Gretarians and pulling a Dawiar by arming them sounds like a good way to create a Sydraxian Afghanistan...

Click to shrink...

I mean, yes. But creating Sydraxian Afghanistan is probably not the most in-character thing for the Federation to be doing.

 

[Simon_Jester]

Basically, even if we can do it, we can't do it in Gretaria. We could do it in Yrillian space, maybe, but the Sydraxians are apparently not stupid enough to try to threaten the Yrillians.

 

[Briefvoice]

So looking forward to research since I believe all plans have the Med team, we need 7 RP during Q2 to activate all of our teams. And for the following year we need 49 RP after income (not including the 2 or 3 the Seyek should provide for hitting 300). My suggestion for research is if we earn 20 RP or less in Q2 do no boosts. Otherwise everything over that can be used for boosts. That will make it extremely likely we hit the RP totals we need the following year with extra for boosts.

Click to shrink...

I don't count generic teams as part of "our teams". They are much less efficient than a regular team, and only mildly more efficient than a boost. Ideally we should continue getting tech teams until we're almost never activating a generic team.

 

[Simon_Jester]

In effect, generic teams are a way to 'buy' research teams using RP instead of PP; we "sink" RP by using them inefficiently, but we save the PP it would cost to make the team.

I'm actually not sure on how the math works out; how many RP are 'wasted' compared to what we'd spend on a PP-purchased team? That is, in effect, the RP cost we pay instead of the 20pp it would take to create the team by the usual method.

 

[Night]

It's perfectly possible for everyone else to be wrong.

Click to shrink...

No, it's not. You're trying to communicate ideas to everyone else. If your ideas are not getting through, you have made a mistake. It's perfectly possible for everyone else to be wrong on a math problem but this is a matter of interpersonal communications, not logic.

The fact you're attempting to correct it with your signature illustrates you understand this. Your post is just needless hostility.

 

[Jrin]

[X] [COUNCIL] Plan Intelligence, Education, Diplomacy and Industrial Expansion

[X][FACTION] Approach the Expansionists. Doubtless they have heard of pro-Cardassian leanings among the Yrillians that would have them siding with the Sydraxians in the event of a general war. The Council has also given frequent reminders of how squeezed Starfleet is for transports in its auxiliary fleet. Why not solve one problem with another? Yrillians are famous for building more ships than they strictly need. We would like to begin an outreach program by hiring Yrillian cargo ships and freighters to alleviate our temporary shipping crunch. Depending on availability, this could be extended to include other auxiliary ship work where the Federation's expansion has left us straining. The goal is to alleviate that strain and simultaneously to show ordinary Yrillian work gangs how working with the Federation aligns with their interests, thus increasing pro-Federation sentiment among the Yrillians at large.

[X][NAME] Lasieth Craft Yards

 

[Nix]

No, it's not. You're trying to communicate ideas to everyone else. If your ideas are not getting through, you have made a mistake. It's perfectly possible for everyone else to be wrong on a math problem but this is a matter of interpersonal communications, not logic.

Click to shrink...

Your cutting off the quote at that point distorts my position unreasonably. In the very next sentence I acknowledged that it does mean the conventional understanding everyone mentioned does exist in some form. That doesn't mean this conventional understanding is useful or reasonable.

And my ideas were getting through perfectly fine to the person I actually addressed, it's just that everyone else jumped in afterwards.

 

[Night]

Your cutting off the quote at that point distorts my position unreasonably.

Click to shrink...

It actually doesn't. Because the fact you acknowledged a conventional understanding and ignored it makes your position significantly worse, not better. I was being generous.

This is a public discussion of your plan which you would like people to vote on, not a private one, and yet you deliberately phrased it in a way only one person participating understands? (If this is even true; no one appears to have believed your percentages were reliable estimates of anything and everyone has stated something like them being illustrative only of your thought process.) That makes you look significantly worse. You forgot your medium and your audience; you ignored that what you were trying to do would obviously alienate many of them.

You're digging your hole deeper here the more you try to explain your actions.

 

[HearthBorn]

[X] [COUNCIL] Base Plan Preemtive Diplomacy and Staking Claims

[X][FACTION] Approach the Expansionists. Doubtless they have heard of pro-Cardassian leanings among the Yrillians that would have them siding with the Sydraxians in the event of a general war. The Council has also given frequent reminders of how squeezed Starfleet is for transports in its auxiliary fleet. Why not solve one problem with another? Yrillians are famous for building more ships than they strictly need. We would like to begin an outreach program by hiring Yrillian cargo ships and freighters to alleviate our temporary shipping crunch. Depending on availability, this could be extended to include other auxiliary ship work where the Federation's expansion has left us straining. The goal is to alleviate that strain and simultaneously to show ordinary Yrillian work gangs how working with the Federation aligns with their interests, thus increasing pro-Federation sentiment among the Yrillians at large.

 

[AKuz]

If we could attach a trigger to a push that reads something like "Go ahead once Starfleet has assembled a task force out of new builds and repaired vessels in Q2" and then adjust our deployment patterns to match while asking for back up from the now no longer Syndicate distracted UESPA and another member fleet or two that would be cool

[Snip long rambling phone horror post about the fundamental weakness of the Ashalla pact; especially in being forced to support a stupid Sydraxian adventure]

Once we're set up right we can push the Sydraxians to the breaking point -all within the letter /and/ spirit of the Treaty of Celos.

 

[Briefvoice]

In effect, generic teams are a way to 'buy' research teams using RP instead of PP; we "sink" RP by using them inefficiently, but we save the PP it would cost to make the team.

I'm actually not sure on how the math works out; how many RP are 'wasted' compared to what we'd spend on a PP-purchased team? That is, in effect, the RP cost we pay instead of the 20pp it would take to create the team by the usual method.

Click to shrink...

Generic Tech teams take 10 activations to become regular teams. A regular team normally starts at skill 2 and takes 4 activations to become skill 3, then 5 applications to become skill 4. I'll be nice and assume that half the time a generic team is working on a slide with only one technology and half the time it's working on a slide with 2 technologies.

Activation # / # Techs in Slide / Research by Generic Team / Research by Regular Team (working in specialty)
1 / 1 / 6 (1 + 5) / 9 (4 + 5)
2 / 2 / 7 (1 + 1 + 5) / 13 (4 + 4 + 5)
3 / 1 / 6 / 9
4 / 2 / 7 / 13 (regular team now promoted)
5 / 1 / 6 / 11 (6 + 5)
6 / 2 / 7 / 17 (6 + 6 + 5)
7 / 1 / 6 / 11
8 / 2 / 7 / 17
9 / 1 / 6 / 11 (regular team now promoted)
10 / 2 / 7 / 21 (8 + 8 + 5) (generic team now promoted to regular team)

So after 10 years:
The generic team has carried out 75 points of research and is a Skill 2 team.
The regular team has carried out 132 points of research is a Skill 4 team.

With 20 pp you could buy 2.5 research colonies. Let's say that collectively they produce about 15 rp per year. So the 20 pp could be as much as 150pp per year... if there were 2.5 research colonies to buy, which there aren't because we always make them a pp priority over new tech teams anyway.

 

[chriswriter90]

[][FACTION] Approach the Expansionists. Doubtless they have heard of pro-Cardassian leanings among the Yrillians that would have them siding with the Sydraxians in the event of a general war. The Council has also given frequent reminders of how squeezed Starfleet is for transports in its auxiliary fleet. Why not solve one problem with another? Yrillians are famous for building more ships than they strictly need. We would like to begin an outreach program by hiring Yrillian cargo ships and freighters to alleviate our temporary shipping crunch. Depending on availability, this could be extended to include other auxiliary ship work where the Federation's expansion has left us straining. The goal is to alleviate that strain and simultaneously to show ordinary Yrillian work gangs how working with the Federation aligns with their interests, thus increasing pro-Federation sentiment among the Yrillians at large.

Click to shrink...

1. I've said it before, I'll say it again. That is a Merchantialist or Developmentalist plan.

2. The Expansionists are kind of in the dog house right now.

[X] [COUNCIL] Plan Intelligence, Education, Diplomacy and Industrial Expansion

[X][FACTION] Approach the Mercantilists. Doubtless they have heard of pro-Cardassian leanings among the Yrillians that would have them siding with the Sydraxians in the event of a general war. The Council has also given frequent reminders of how squeezed Starfleet is for transports in its auxiliary fleet. Why not solve one problem with another? Yrillians are famous for building more ships than they strictly need. We would like to begin an outreach program by hiring Yrillian cargo ships and freighters to alleviate our temporary shipping crunch. Depending on availability, this could be extended to include other auxiliary ship work where the Federation's expansion has left us straining. The goal is to alleviate that strain and simultaneously to show ordinary Yrillian work gangs how working with the Federation aligns with their interests, thus increasing pro-Federation sentiment among the Yrillians at large.

[X][NAME] Lasieth Craft Yards

 

[Briefvoice]

1. I've said it before, I'll say it again. That is a Merchantialist or Developmentalist plan.

2. The Expansionists are kind of in the dog house right now.

Click to shrink...

I gave that serious thought. Ultimately, however, this is a diplomatic effort to reach outside the Federation's borders to solve a problem in the hopes of strengthening the Federation's relationship with someone who is not an affiliate. Definitely not a development proposal. Probably could be a merchantile proposal, but we just went to them last time and they don't have as much juice as the expansionists.

As for the Expansionists being the in dog house, don't count them out. They're still a powerful faction, and they came in second in the most recent round of presidential elections. Losing the presidency made them a little less powerful, but they still have a lot of votes to command, and it would be easy for them to build a coalition for this.

 

[Kaizuki]

*pokes fingers together*

Instead... We could solve our personnel problems? Decisively? Which... would give us the resources to really push at the GBZ.

-[X][FACTION] Approach the Developers: discuss a major expansion of Starfleet Academy across one or more non-Sol worlds. Use excess pp to push for a maximum effect via offering to push starbases / infrastructure / etcetera in exchange for extra support from the Developers.
[X] [COUNCIL] Plan Stop Having Bottleneck
-[X] Request Mining Colony at Castor IV-2, 8pp, 20 (30) sr/yr, 4 turns
-[X] Request Mining Colony at Kappa Tau, 8pp, 15 (20) br/yr, 4 turns
-[X] Request Mining Colony at Ulen Gao VII, 8pp, 20 (25) br/yr, 4 turns
-[X] Request Mining Colony at Peco Sigma, 8pp, 10 (20) sr/year, 4 turns
-[X] Request Academy Development, 35pp (Gain +.5 Officers/Enlisted/Techs throughput)
-[X] Reorganise a Starfleet Command from a Rear Admiral position to a Vice Admiral position. Pick one: 30pp for Personnel.
-[X] Request new Shipyard at Betazed, 18pp (8 turns, 2 1mt Berths)
-[X] Request new Starbase I [Betazed], Request new Starbase I [CBZ] (15 + 15 pp)
-[X] Request Cruiser berth at Utopia Planitia, 11pp (6 turns, gain new 2m t berth) [Can take multiple times, +5pp per subsequent build]
-[X] Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp Ittick-Ka

[16][NAME] Lasieth Craft Yards
---- 176 pp, possibly higher costs depending on what happens?

 

[chriswriter90]

I gave that serious thought. Ultimately, however, this is a diplomatic effort to reach outside the Federation's borders to solve a problem in the hopes of strengthening the Federation's relationship with someone who is not an affiliate. Definitely not a development proposal. Probably could be a merchantile proposal, but we just went to them last time and they don't have as much juice as the expansionists.

As for the Expansionists being the in dog house, don't count them out. They're still a powerful faction, and they came in second in the most recent round of presidential elections. Losing the presidency made them a little less powerful, but they still have a lot of votes to command, and it would be easy for them to build a coalition for this.

Click to shrink...

The Turtles share a border with the Yrillians. I trust them to pull through for us.

 

[aeqnai]

[X] Kaizuki

 

[Gadjo]

[X] Kaizuki

 

[Nix]

Sigh, it seems highly unproductive to argue about who exactly is at fault for not avoiding a misunderstanding due to a highly questionable conventional understanding I was previously unaware of and that was evidently possible to avoid on both sides.

You believe that, assuming the Sydraxians notice but do not respond to our diplomatic push immediately, there is a 62.5% chance of the Gretarians deciding to stick with the status quo. You believe that, assuming the Sydraxians don't notice, there is only a 33.3% chance of the Gretarians deciding to stick with the status quo. Why is that? You never went into detail.

Click to shrink...

Both noticing and the Gretarians not daring to change anything are highly correlated with just how much control and oversight the Sydraxians have over them.

You believe that there is only about a 50% chance of the Sydraxians becoming aware of our diplomatic push unless the Gretarians do something major in response to it. Why is that? You never went into detail.

Click to shrink...

Because as stated elsewhere contacting the Gretarians in secret is evidently possible as demonstrated in 2312. It was somewhat difficult, but seems like it would be slightly less difficult now on account of the Sydraxians having stopped raiding us and being busy with the GBZ, though there is some chance of being leaked after the contact but before they come close to a decision. This obviously depends on how much of their politics happens in public and whether their government has the authority to sign such a treaty without parliamentary debate, referendum or whatever. Basically this seems close enough to even that I wouldn't immediately know which outcome I'd prefer to bet on.

You believe that even if the Sydraxians notice the diplomatic push after a brief delay, and even if they see the Gretarians about to become Federation affiliates, there is a greater than 50% chance that the Sydraxians will do literally nothing and we win, nolo contendere. Why is that? You never went into detail.

Click to shrink...

Because as stated elsewhere I don't think the Gretarians are a very high priority for them, not compared to the GBZ.

 

[JesseJ]

[X][COUNCIL] Plan Personnel, Diplomacy and Industrial Expansion

[X][FACTION] Approach the Expansionists. Doubtless they have heard of pro-Cardassian leanings among some Yrillians that would have them siding with the Sydraxians in the event of a general war. We would like to begin an outreach program to show ordinary Yrillian work gangs how working with the Federation aligns with their interests. Start perhaps by hiring Yrillian cargo, which would also help our shipping crunch, but other basic ideas include survey or prospecting work, space construction, exchange of goods, sponsoring entertainment tours, or hiring shipyards for civilian projects. Any sort of win-win arrangements we can offer to increase pro-Federation sentiment among the Yrillians at large.

[X][NAME] Lasieth Craft Yards

 

[AKuz]

*pokes fingers together*

Instead... We could solve our personnel problems? Decisively? Which... would give us the resources to really push at the GBZ.

[X][FACTION] Approach the Developers: discuss a major expansion of Starfleet Academy across one or more non-Sol worlds. Use excess pp to push for a maximum effect via offering to push starbases / infrastructure / etcetera in exchange for extra support from the Developers.

[X] Request Mining Colony at Castor IV-2, 8pp, 20 (30) sr/yr, 4 turns
[X] Request Mining Colony at Kappa Tau, 8pp, 15 (20) br/yr, 4 turns
[X] Request Mining Colony at Ulen Gao VII, 8pp, 20 (25) br/yr, 4 turns
[X] Request Mining Colony at Peco Sigma, 8pp, 10 (20) sr/year, 4 turns
[X] Request Academy Development, 35pp (Gain +.5 Officers/Enlisted/Techs throughput)
[X] Reorganise a Starfleet Command from a Rear Admiral position to a Vice Admiral position. Pick one: 30pp for Personnel.
[X] Request new Shipyard at Betazed, 18pp (8 turns, 2 1mt Berths)
[X] Request new Starbase I [Betazed], Request new Starbase I [CBZ] (15 + 15 pp)
[X] Request Cruiser berth at Utopia Planitia, 11pp (6 turns, gain new 2m t berth) [Can take multiple times, +5pp per subsequent build]
[X] Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp Ittick-Ka

---- 176 pp, possibly higher costs depending on what happens?

Click to shrink...

I really don't like the idea of using a Sousa deal to do something that we can essentially do anyway, even at a slightly greater cost.

The deals are best used for something we have no hope of doing otherwise.

 

[Kaze]

[X] Kaizuki

This is pretty much what I want, save maybe going with the new shipyard at Apinae instead of the UP 2mt berth. But beggars can't be choosers.

 

[lbmaian]

-[X] Request Academy Development, 35pp (Gain +.5 Officers/Enlisted/Techs throughput)
-[X] Request Science Academy Development, 15pp (Gain +1 Techs throughput)
-[X] Request new Tech Team to be added to your Ship Design Bureau, 20pp [pure medical, possible background: split Starfleet Medical Command research into two divisions, Medical Equipment (existing team) and Experimental Treatments (new team)]
-[X] Request Mining Colony at Ulen Gao VII, 8pp (4 turns, gain +20 (25) br/year)
-[X] Request Mining Colony at Peco Sigma, 8pp (4 turns, gain +10 (20) sr/year)
-[X] Request Mining Colony at Castor IV-2, 8pp (4 turns, gain +20 (30) sr/year)
-[X] Request new Starbase I [Betazed] (15+12) * 0.75 = 20.25pp
-[X] Request new Shipyard at Betazed, 18pp (8 turns, 2 1mt Berths)
-[X] Request new Shipyard at Apinae , 33pp, (12 turns, 1 3mt Berth, 1 1mt Berth)
-[X] Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp [Yrillians]
-[X] Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp [Ittick-ka]
-[X] Deploy Improved Listening Posts to a Border Zone to gain a 25% chance of generating +1 Intel report for powers on that border. (Cardassian Border Zone), 20pp
-[X] Reorganise a Starfleet Command from a Rear Admiral position to a Vice Admiral position: 20pp for Starfleet Intelligence

Click to shrink...

Your vote isn't being counted, because it has a weird bullet point in front of it. In any case, this looks like Briefvoice's plan, so just put "[X] Plan Intelligence, Education, Diplomacy and Industrial Expansion"

[X][FACTION] Approach the Developers: discuss a major expansion of Starfleet Academy across one or more non-Sol worlds. Use excess pp to push for a maximum effect via offering to push starbases / infrastructure / etcetera in exchange for extra support from the Developers.

Click to shrink...

Starfleet Academy already has major campuses in other worlds. Just that the main campus is in San Francisco. It's likely implicit that Academy expansions can expand all such campuses.

Furthermore, I'm not sure it's even possible to tell a faction to spend the rest of our current pp as they see fit. All the times where we had to reserve pp for a faction, it happened at the next snakepit.

[X] Request Mining Colony at Castor IV-2, 8pp, 20 (30) sr/yr, 4 turns
[X] Request Mining Colony at Kappa Tau, 8pp, 15 (20) br/yr, 4 turns
[X] Request Mining Colony at Ulen Gao VII, 8pp, 20 (25) br/yr, 4 turns
[X] Request Mining Colony at Peco Sigma, 8pp, 10 (20) sr/year, 4 turns
[X] Request Academy Development, 35pp (Gain +.5 Officers/Enlisted/Techs throughput)
[X] Reorganise a Starfleet Command from a Rear Admiral position to a Vice Admiral position. Pick one: 30pp for Personnel.
[X] Request new Shipyard at Betazed, 18pp (8 turns, 2 1mt Berths)
[X] Request new Starbase I [Betazed], Request new Starbase I [CBZ] (15 + 15 pp)
[X] Request Cruiser berth at Utopia Planitia, 11pp (6 turns, gain new 2m t berth) [Can take multiple times, +5pp per subsequent build]
[X] Request focused Diplomacy on a potential member species, 20pp Ittick-Ka

---- 176 pp, possibly higher costs depending on what happens?

Click to shrink...

Please put this into a plan, since we're not voting on each of these options independently. It screws up the vote tallying. See other plan votes for examples.

 

[Briefvoice]

*pokes fingers together*

Instead... We could solve our personnel problems? Decisively? Which... would give us the resources to really push at the GBZ.

Click to shrink...

If that is what you're promising people to come out of this, it is not true. Crew happens to be the most serious constraint, but you nudge it a little and berth space or special resources becomes the constraint instead.

[X][FACTION] Approach the Developers: discuss a major expansion of Starfleet Academy across one or more non-Sol worlds. Use excess pp to push for a maximum effect via offering to push starbases / infrastructure / etcetera in exchange for extra support from the Developers.

---- 176 pp, possibly higher costs depending on what happens?

Click to shrink...

Under-spending ourselves by 50 pp because you have some vague idea that there will be an option to make our personnel issues go away is not a good idea. Where's the Medical team? I just... like... honestly I could live with any of the other options winning, but this seems really, really bad. I'm sorry to see so many people jumping on it.