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To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest)

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To Boldly Go... (a Starfleet quest) Starfleet Ship Design Bureau, Refit ("To Boldly Go...")
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I should point out that the Syndicate hasn't been mounting up costs as terribly as it used to. We also have.. how much resilience, now?
 
[X][EXCEL] Ainsworth will have to make do
[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral Nyota Uhura

T'Faer and Sirvk's bonuses both have the problem that they don't scale. At the start of the game they would have been more valuable than they are now, and they will continue to fall in value as we grow. And they aren't even all that valuable in the first place. Sirvk's has the further downside of not being planable, and we will often not be in the position to take advantage of a berth clearing early. We sometimes might not have the crew ready in time either. And even at it's best it's just a far weaker version of Chen's. T'Faer's bonus interacts badly with multiple ships rolling, no matter what the rules actually are. If it triggers when any of the ships misses the event it's likely to be wasted, if it triggers when no ship makes it that probably means the response DC was very high to begin with and the reroll is not very likely to help. Even in the best case it's one extra sector event per year.

Lathriss' and Uhura's research bonuses are very similar in value, certainly Lathriss' isn't better by 12pp per year (or 6 pp or whatever at the moment, but VADM postings seem to typically last for a decade or more and the income reduction should rapidly normalize so this shouldn't matter all that much for this choice).
 
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Given that we roll many sector event checks per year, and only miss a few of them, is it truly reasonable to infer that the response DC was high and a reroll would be wasted?

It would seem to me that if, out of a large sample size, we usually succeed, then the prior probability of success is high. It's simply that when we roll the dice ten times or more in a single year, sometimes said dice roll low, and none of our ships can make it.

For instance, if the event DC is such that our ships have an average 70% chance of making it, then we would still fail 9% of the time even with two ships getting a chance to respond. And yet, in this hypothetical T'Faer's reroll would give us a 70% of salvaging the situation and getting an event after all.

What information do we have on the percentage of the time that our ships fail a response roll? Is it happening several times a year? Only once or twice a year? Out of how many events per year total experienced by our non-Explorer Corps ships?

...

That said... One extra event per year isn't a great bonus, but typical event awards tend to be something like +5pp or +5rp or the like, with the possibility of significantly more (10-20pp, a colony site).

It is certainly true, though, that having the bonus trigger whenever any ship fails a reaction roll is counterproductive in sectors with multiple ships.
 
[X][EXCEL] Ainsworth will have to make do

[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral Nyota Uhura
 
[X][EXCEL] Ainsworth will have to make do
[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral Nyota Uhura
 
[X][EXCEL] Ainsworth will have to make do

[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral T'Faer
 
Shard said:
I should point out that the Syndicate hasn't been mounting up costs as terribly as it used to. We also have.. how much resilience, now?
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We started this year with 61 cost (121/2 rounded) and then accrued 8 this year so far. We now have 32 resilience. If that resilience only counteracts the accrued cost this year, which I believe is the case, then we're down to 61 cost. If we optimistically assume it can counteract all cost, then we're down to 37 cost.
 
[X][EXCEL] Ainsworth will have to make do

[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral T'Faer
 
[X][EXCEL] Ainsworth will have to make do

[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral T'Faer
 
[X][EXCEL] Send the Bull, send message aboard the Bull- no ships will be free until construction on ships finish next year
[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral Nyota Uhura

Though it pains me to select a Human for another VA slot Uhura +3 to comms research will be useful and the extra PP a year is always nice.

Edit: Changed vote, not a fan of pulling off the Yukikaze from the ASTF. Sending a Centaur-A, that replaces the Shield and the Republic comes back during/end of this quarter. Then in 2314.Q1 and Q2 we have a lot of ships finishing allowing us to send at least one Connie-B and a Miranda-A or two as reinforcements.
 
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Do we really want to pull Uhura from dealing with the Syndicate? Is reassigning her before the Syndicate's crushed really worth it?
 
Simon_Jester said:
Given that we roll many sector event checks per year, and only miss a few of them, is it truly reasonable to infer that the response DC was high and a reroll would be wasted?
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Last time we heard event response DCs were 3d6, response rolls 2d6+D(+stat/bonus if applicable). Analysis is a bit complicated and I don't have too much time, but let's look at the probability of having a DC of exactly 16, conditional on one ship with +6 response having failed.
P(fail) = 0.2215
P(fail | DC16) = 0.8333278
P(DC16)= 0.0278
P(DC16| fail) = P(fail | DC16) * P(DC16) / P(fail) = 0.1045

So even just a single ship failing raises the inferred probability that the DC was 16 by a factor of 4. If you consider all high numbers and the evidence that multiple ships failed (which is difficult to calculate because the probability of them failing is not independent) you would have almost all of the probability mass concentrated in them. I can't do the full calculation before tomorrow because I'm too busy.
 
I feel like we're building up a bandwagon of "no more reinforcements to replace the disabled warships from Deva IX" simply because @Briefvoice isn't here to tell us what ships we can move...

Are we sure we don't want to try to keep our force levels high? That seems very counterproductive. The Sydraxians aren't our only opponent, and probably aren't even our strongest opponent. Defeating them once doesn't mean the war is over.
 
[X][EXCEL] Ainsworth will have to make do

[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral T'Faer
 
Notes on Uhura, if we gain a bonus to our comms tech like we did last year then picking her will complete 2310 Networking this year and get us an extra 5 RP a year plus a 1 pp discount on research colonies
 
Okay, I'm going to abstain on the OPS vote

But just so people have something to vote for besides spamming "no more reinforcements for the Gabriel Expanse, Ainsworth will have to make do with a Combat 20 striking force for the next several months."

Now here is what Briefvoice said when we were talking about this yesterday:

Briefvoice said:
This is doable.

We could pull the Yukikaze off ASTF and put it on patrol of Ferasa sector, pull the Bull out of Tellar Sector and put it on patrol of Ferasa sector, freeing up the Avandar to go from Ferasa to Gabriel.

With the Syndicate's space assets rendered ineffective, I think the ASTF ought to be able to manage with only two cruisers.

Thoughts, everyone? One more Excelsior for Ainsworth?
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Briefvoice said:
Hmm, in some ways it would actually help to have the Avandar exchanged for two Centaur-As in Ferasa Sector. As we've noted, Ferasa sector has gotten freaking huge, extending to the Qloathi, and down to Risa. Having two less capable ships that can be in multiple places at once might be better than one ship that is very capable, but isn't where we need it. (At least narratively; not sure if it'll work that way mechanically.)

The trouble is, there's just nowhere else to go for a second Centaur-A in Ferasa sector. We can get the Bull from Tellar Sector, but where else do we go?

Hmmm, unless Ainsworth wants to trade one of her Centaur-As for an Excelsior, I suppose.
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Let me think...
 
[X][EXCEL] Send the Avandar. Replace it on garrison in Ferasa Sector by detaching the Yukikaze from the Anti-Syndicate Task Force and bringing in the Stalwart from Tellar Sector. Personal note to Ainsworth, highest encryption. "The pantry is now bare, Rachel. No more reinforcements until second quarter next year. Plan accordingly."

[X][FREIGHT] Send 2 extra freighters, 2 extra Cargo Ships (-15pp)

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral Nyota Uhura

EDIT: Yes, this leaves Tellar sector with only a single Miranda. However Tellar Sector is literally in the middle of the Federation, bordered on all sides by better-manned sectors. If ever there was a sector we could get away with doing that, it's there.

EDIT2: @AKuz convinced me to change my freighter vote.
 
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[X][EXCEL] Ainsworth will have to make do

[X][EXCEL] Briefvoice

Actually. I will listen to expert.

[X][OPS] Rear Admiral Nyota Uhura

Bandwagon seems fine.

But this is where I part ways with the bandwagon:

[X][FREIGHT] Send 2 extra freighters, 2 extra Cargo Ships (-15pp)

We'really already all in one the GBZ. Our plan is to move so fast and in such large force that our control of the GBZ becomes a fait accompli.

I don't want ships idle due to lack of supply. I don't want to wait to finish critical projects that could save life's and beat back Cardassians. I don't want logistics poised on the edge of failure constantly.

We already made our bed when we voted to go all in on the GBZ ship wise. We've already lost a few PP opportunities to lack of ships. And yet here we are looking to get the worst of both worlds. Idle ships in the GBZ and missed opportunities at home because we don't want to pay the cost.

I'll tell you this: we already chose to act audaciously and it has paid off already. Our enemies are surprised and reeling. This is not the time to ease off the throttle and let ourselves rest on our laurels.

I will not let our expedition stall out for want of a few PP. I would rather pay a little now to avoid wrecked hulls and dead colonists later.

And yet to preserve momentum we can't spare any more hulls to help at this point -but we can spare a few points of PP to keep the tank full of pire fucking-Cardassian-plans-up fuel

Give our people the tools they need to finish the job now rather than risking our gains later.

Edit: Maybe if we keep shoveling ships in the Cardassians will just give up in despair? > : V
 
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Simon_Jester said:
Are we sure we don't want to try to keep our force levels high? That seems very counterproductive. The Sydraxians aren't our only opponent, and probably aren't even our strongest opponent. Defeating them once doesn't mean the war is over.
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Not sending reinforcements also encourages to inflict more damage on us, because, obviously we cannot reinforce ...

[X][EXCEL] Send the Avandar. Replace it on garrison in Ferasa Sector by detaching the Yukikaze from the Anti-Syndicate Task Force and bringing in the Stalwart from Tellar Sector. Personal note to Ainsworth, highest encryption. "The pantry is now bare, Rachel. No more reinforcements until second quarter next year. Plan accordingly."

[X][FREIGHT] Send 1 extra freighter, 1 extra Cargo Ship (-5pp)
 
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I am not a fan of sending the Yukikaze from anti-syndicate duties without replacing it as they are down but recovering and I want to keep the momentum going there.
 
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