[X][SOE] Do not request a State of Emergency
[X][SFTF1] Support Operations on Celos
[X][STFT2] Hunt and Destroy Syndicate Space forces
[X][UETF] Escort shipping
[X][ATF] Escort shipping
[X][CBZ] Skirmish with Cardassian ships
[X][SBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 8 at Vega
[X][DIPLO] Request the Indorians send their forces to Starbase 9 at Lapycorias
I'd suggest having the smaller UETF move to replace SFTF1 over Freedom-keep our ops there covered, and group our convoys into bigger formations under the Andorians-more inconvenient, yeah, but we can probably do that. Otherwise, this looks fine to me, though I'm a bit nervous about taking our diplomatic pressure off the Sydraxians-if we can make their support for Cardassia and the war flag now, the Cardassians might think twice. I was drawing up a nearly identical plan to your options here, we really need to roll the dice on Avoiding War and getting things in order.
 
I don't see any point in search and destroy orders. The Syndicate fleet HAS to come to Celos, they've staked everything on that incident, and if they let us park the Amarki fleet in orbit and deploy the Aeroknights uncontested that's game for that incident. The Sydicate has always had a hard time fighting the Aerocommandos, with Amarki reinforcements and heavy orbital support they'll get cut to shreds in a standup fight, and going to ground is a lose condition.

Hence they HAVE to try and contest the Amarki battle fleet, and they almost certainly haven't the forces for that.

In re the CBZ I'm not sure if the Cardassians would take a defensive posture as a sign of weakness.

@Simon_Jester
We're already at high alert. The update says so, and the QM quoted your post to confirm that.

Also, if we commit both Task Forces one and Two to Celos ops, then the Syndicate assaulting the two task forces is our best case scenario. They've not a prayer of being able to take that much firepower, especially with massed fleet movements also drawing the UE and Andorian task forces. That's 50-odd points of combat strength.

Just TF 2 should be enough to break the syndicate fleet if they attack.
 
Given that the Cardassians haven't opened diplomatic channels at all, does a guarantee for Celos actually mean anything? There's essentially no way they can enforce it, and when they inevitably fail their own client states will feel that much less secure with their protection.
 
@Vehrec, I like what you have in mind for the Earth and Andor forces. Will fix ASAP.

My reason for NOT continuing to diplopush the Sydraxians is already given. I don't think that the Diplomatic Corps is going to be able to get through to the Sydraxians and convince them to cool their jets in the time available. Therefore, nothing they can do in the next two weeks will avert conflict with Sydraxia, if the Sydraxians were already resolved on it.

By contrast, the Diplomatic Corps could decisively alter the outcome of a major opening battle of the war, if they can get reinforcements to Shallow Space Nine.

My apologies. As you may guess, it took me some time to write up that entire explanation post. Oneiros ninjaed me, will go back and address that shortly.

[ ][SOE] Arrange for an SoE immediately following a Cardassian guarantee for Celos
Seems like a no-brainer. As far as I'm concerned a Cardassian guarantee for Celos is a Cardassian declaration of war anyway, because inasmuch as we accept the Celos "government" as a thing that exists we're already at war with them. Cardassia doing this is them declaring "Oh, yeah, that just defensive war you're fighting? If you don't unilaterally end it on the agressor's terms it's war". So I don't see "will cause war if Cardassia guarantees Celos" as a actually being a downside.
Guys, if the Cardassians guarantee Celosian independence, but then do not invade our space to help the Celosians, that is like the best thing that could possibly happen to us. We would LOVE IT if they do that. Or if their helpful Cardassian task force is turned away at the border by our own forces.

Remember all those times the Cardassians tried to convince our affiliates that we couldn't protect them? We will be in a position to turn that around. We will be able go "WHERE ARE YOUR SPOONHEADS NOW!?" as T'Lorel phasers the Celosian Corporate Republic back into the fragments it assembled itself from.

If we declare war the minute they declare for Celos, we have nothing more to threaten them with. Nowhere to escalate to. They might as well send a relief force to Celos AND attack Starbase Nine AND get the Sydraxians to make a full-court push AND do literally everything else they can to us, all at once. Because then their plan to aid Celos might actually succeed.

By contrast, if they know they can declare for Celos all they like, but sending an aid column would be suicidal because it would (a) get blown up and (b) lead to war... Then if they DO rashly declare for Celos, but the aid column does not arrive, we gain a huge advantage over them.

[ ][SFTF2] Conduct blockade at Celos
Seems obvious. Lock down Celos, force Syndicate space assets to engage multiple battleships* if they want to be useful.

No other obvious ones to me.
Nonono.

We want the Syndicate space assets dead, not cowering. Task Force One (and presumably some Orion naval assets) can handle the actual blockade. Task Force Two's job is to locate the Syndicate warships and blow them out of space, no matter where they run or how far they fly.

If they attack Celos, Nash will follow them to Celos. If they remain at their home bases, Nash will attack the bases. If they go to Hell, Nash will plant a Federation uniform bootprint on their butts to help them on the way. But she cannot do this if her force is nailed down redundantly covering Celos.
 
I'll go through the options one by one.

[X][SOE] Arrange for an SoE immediately following a Cardassian guarantee for Celos.

It's already been stated, but if this happens, then the Cardies think they can get there before we can uproot it, and if that happens it's war anyway. We might as well prepare ourselves.

[X][SFTF1] Support Operations on Celos.

We need the extra time to avoid a war. Thus, we absolutely need to uproot this Syndicate uprising on Celos before the Cardassians can support and guarantee it.

[X][SFTF2] Hunt and Destroy Syndicate Space forces.

We need these dead anyway, but if it does go to war, they have to absolutely be dead and gone. We can't afford to have hostile ships randomly show up at crucial battles. I'd also wager they're gonna be put to use by the Syndicate to try and support Celos soon.

Forming a blockade at Celos isn't a terrible idea either, however, it leaves Freedom and Alukk and our shipping open to a concentrated attack that S&D doesn't.

[X][UETF] Support operations on Freedom

Edit: I don't want those operations to collapse. Could Ben this's same sort of situation again if it's allowed to.

[X][ATF] Escort Shipping

Need our supply chain to remain open. Simple as that.

[X][SBZ] Focus on defence of Square 0d

The Apiata have the capacity to defend themselves from the Sydraxians. I'd rather not spread that fleet out. Edit: Briefvoice pointed out the vulnernability of the Amarki here.

[X][CBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 9 at Lapycorias.

I'm not terribly sure about this. It leaves a lot of space open. But the other options are a total no go.

[X][DIPLO] Request the Indorians send their forces to Starbase 9 at Lapycorias

This is the one option I'm really not sure on. The only thing in this subsection I know we shouldn't vote for is to continue working the Sydraxians. We haven't really made up much ground as is, so anything in the short amount of time we have is just pointless.
 
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@Simon_Jester
That's a good point on both the war and on the force deployment.

Really wish we could add T'Mir to TF 2, just so Nash has something like the SIGINT/ELINT capability she's used to having on Enterprise.

Your force deployment basically leaves us in perfect position to smush or turn back a cardassian reinforcement push, and they aren't properly mobilized for this either.
 
Given that the Cardassians haven't opened diplomatic channels at all, does a guarantee for Celos actually mean anything? There's essentially no way they can enforce it, and when they inevitably fail their own client states will feel that much less secure with their protection.
EXACTLY. The only way this can possibly work out for the Cardassians is if they guarantee for Celos, then successfully jump our frontier forces while we're preoccupied dealing with the mess in Orion space before we can suppress the uprising on Celos. Their support for Celos isn't a war objective, it's an expendable distraction.

[ @pheonix89, thanks for what you said to me a minute ago. This is edited in to indicate I hear you- I can only respond and type so fast and all-of-youse are getting ahead of me.]

I don't see any point in search and destroy orders. The Syndicate fleet HAS to come to Celos, they've staked everything on that incident, and if they let us park the Amarki fleet in orbit and deploy the Aeroknights uncontested that's game for that incident. The Sydicate has always had a hard time fighting the Aerocommandos, with Amarki reinforcements and heavy orbital support they'll get cut to shreds in a standup fight, and going to ground is a lose condition.

Hence they HAVE to try and contest the Amarki battle fleet, and they almost certainly haven't the forces for that.
That's why I'm proposing to send Task Force One to protect Celos. It has some pretty good ships that are probably individually as good or better than the Syndicate ships, but that we we don't divert our mission from offensively going after the Syndicate if they DON'T try to fight a pitched battle.

In re the CBZ I'm not sure if the Cardassians would take a defensive posture as a sign of weakness.
Which is why I'm voting for the CBZ fleet to skirmish with the Cardassians. If the Gabriel Zone fleet were available I'd be having them do the same thing.

Also, if we commit both Task Forces one and Two to Celos ops, then the Syndicate assaulting the two task forces is our best case scenario. They've not a prayer of being able to take that much firepower, especially with massed fleet movements also drawing the UE and Andorian task forces. That's 50-odd points of combat strength.

Just TF 2 should be enough to break the syndicate fleet if they attack.
That is arguably TOO MUCH strength, the Syndicate can't take that and they know it. They haven't even been willing to launch a naval attack on Task Force One in the past, even when it was weaker than it is today. The Syndicate war fleet is effectively a guerilla force, and they're led by pirate-type figures whose ships are their livelihoods, not by national government leaders who are prepared to expend ships for the sake of national objectives.

They will just not fight if the alternative is getting wiped out, or they'll continue to harass our logistics and try to pick fights with whatever Orion Union naval units they think they can take.

That's why we're going to need to keep Task Force Two moving around out there, somewhere that the Syndicate can't simply stay away from and avoid a battle.
 
Yeah, that sounds about right. Present them with a target they HAVE to hit, and is just weak enough they might be able to win, then when they commit suddenly Nash starts cutting apart the revealed fleet with a couple of heavy task groups.

Figure that Nash will probably split TF 2 into TF2.1 and T2.2 and divide the forces evenly.

[x] Simon_Jester
 
@Derek58

Wouldn't it actually be better to have ATF make the blockade while Nash & Co hunt for Syndicate? Given that her force is basically our strongest naval asset in Union territory, having it run Celos blockade seems like an inefficient overkill.
 
EXACTLY. The only way this can possibly work out for the Cardassians is if they guarantee for Celos, then successfully jump our frontier forces while we're preoccupied dealing with the mess in Orion space before we can suppress the uprising on Celos. Their support for Celos isn't a war objective, it's an expendable distraction.

[ @pheonix89, thanks for what you said to me a minute ago. This is edited in to indicate I hear you- I can only respond and type so fast and all-of-youse are getting ahead of me.]

That's why I'm proposing to send Task Force One to protect Celos. It has some pretty good ships that are probably individually as good or better than the Syndicate ships, but that we we don't divert our mission from offensively going after the Syndicate if they DON'T try to fight a pitched battle.

Which is why I'm voting for the CBZ fleet to skirmish with the Cardassians. If the Gabriel Zone fleet were available I'd be having them do the same thing.

That is arguably TOO MUCH strength, the Syndicate can't take that and they know it. They haven't even been willing to launch a naval attack on Task Force One in the past, even when it was weaker than it is today. The Syndicate war fleet is effectively a guerilla force, and they're led by pirate-type figures whose ships are their livelihoods, not by national government leaders who are prepared to expend ships for the sake of national objectives.

They will just not fight if the alternative is getting wiped out, or they'll continue to harass our logistics and try to pick fights with whatever Orion Union naval units they think they can take.

That's why we're going to need to keep Task Force Two moving around out there, somewhere that the Syndicate can't simply stay away from and avoid a battle.

On the other hand, forcing the Syndicate fleet to avoid battle until we've retaken Celos might be just the thing.

I guess...it would help if I knew how many ships it took to make a strong blockade.
 
*Casts a glance at the Romulans*

You know, if this goes pear shaped, the Romulans will be free to do their war with the Klingons.

Wonder if they're going to give a little push here.
 
@Derek58

Wouldn't it actually be better to have ATF make the blockade while Nash & Co hunt for Syndicate? Given that her force is basically our strongest naval asset in Union territory, having it run Celos blockade seems like an inefficient overkill.
The ATF has been doing an excellent job hunting, or at least in deterring the Syndicate ships from doing anything, so I'd much rather go for overkill in the vital Celos blockade than elsewhere.
 
I think we really want Task Force 1 on Celos, so it is clear that it is a Federation effort, and is not drawing undue attention back to any specific member worlds. TF2 is Amarki, even under Nash. TF1 is the unified response.
 
All those who are voting for Derek58's plan, could someone explain to me why it is critically important that we declare a Federation-wide, existential-threat, this-is-like-the-Biophage "state of emergency" the very moment the Cardassians recognize Celosian independence?

It seems to me that that would not constitute a Federation-wide state of emergency any more than the Kadak-Tor crisis did. It becomes a state of emergency if the Cardassians launch invasion fleets that punch into our space.

But "Cardassians declare for Celos, and DON'T invade our space" would actually be, like, the best thing that could possibly happen to us. Not an emergency.

That's why I'm voting for NOT declaring a state of emergency. It's premature, until and unless the Cardies either:
1) Cross the border, or
2) Mass large invasion fleets that we need to reposition ourselves to defend against.

On the other hand, forcing the Syndicate fleet to avoid battle until we've retaken Celos might be just the thing.

I guess...it would help if I knew how many ships it took to make a strong blockade.
The answer is basically "more ships than the Syndicate can realistically hope to beat in the time available." Even Task Force One was able to blockade a planet all by itself in the aftermath of the Kearsarge bombing, and that was with only two ships.

EDIT: Also, what ClawClawBite said. Eaton's task force (the one that's been there for years) is a Federation force. Nash's task force is Amarki. Having the Amarki show up over Celos is a good way to enhance the Syndicate's "ALIEN INVADERS" message. Having the Federation as a whole show up in Starfleet ships? Orion space already knows that Uhura and Eaton don't devastate the worlds their force operates around. The Syndicate can scream about them, but they won't seem nearly as threatening, while still being effective.

And they won't give the Syndicate an easy propaganda win that enables them to win deep support for their "corporate republic" from the Celos population.
 
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[X][SOE] Do not request a State of Emergency
[X][SFTF1] Support Operations on Celos
[X][STFT2] Hunt and Destroy Syndicate Space forces
[X][UETF] Support Operations on Freedom
[X][ATF] Escort shipping
[X][CBZ] Skirmish with Cardassian ships
[X][SBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 8 at Vega
[X][DIPLO] Request the Indorians send their forces to Starbase 9 at Lapycorias
 
Something to consider, task force 1 has experience with Orbital strikes and raids against the syndicate.

Also both skirmishes with the cardassians and calling in indoria to the starbase are raising the stakes a lot and making war more likely. If you want to do that you should have the agreement for the SOE.

I feel continuing to pursue the Sydraxian diplomacy would have more long term value, more so since we have started to make progress
 
Thanks, Chimeraguard!

Okay, I actually have to go for a while, so I can't stick around for the next couple of hours defending my vote choices. Just to recap, my plan is:

1) No need for a state of emergency, it would be to our advantage if the Cardassians declare for Celos, so long as they do not invade. There's no emergency if they don't invade.
2) TF 1 (Lexington and the rest of Eaton's ships) go to Celos and work their magic there, just like on the other planets they've fought the Syndicate on.
3) TF 2 (Nash and the Amarki ships) roves around Orion space hunting the Syndicate war fleet and crushing them if they try to take advantage of the situation.
4) The Earthling task force will move to stand in for TF 1 on Freedom while the Andorians continue to escort our convoys.
5) The CBZ fleet will skirmish with the Cardassians to give THEM something to worry about, while the SBZ fleet continues to cover Vega.
6) We want the Indorions to forward-deploy to Starbase Nine, because that way we have a combined force strong enough that it has a decent shot of repelling a Cardassian fleet if they decide to launch a full-court offensive press against us.
 
On the other hand, forcing the Syndicate fleet to avoid battle until we've retaken Celos might be just the thing.
Not really. We want that fleet GONE, and Celos is the perfect bait for a trap. If they don't contest our fleet over it, they lose because T'Lorel WILL wipe any positions that can stand up to the Aeroknights with pinpoint phaser strikes. Remember that this is the guy who already used a Centaur-A as a gunship once. He WILL bring starships down to ground level for CAS. If they don't contest the orbitals, he just brings in the Centaur-A at 500 feet or so and systematically smashes anything that slows down the troops with it.
 
Simon's arguments have swayed me on some counts.


[X][SOE] Arrange for an SoE immediately following a Cardassian guarantee for Celos
[X][SFTF1] Support Operations on Celos.
[X][SFTF2] Hunt and Destroy Syndicate Space forces.
[X][UETF] Support operations on Freedom
[X][ATF] Escort shipping

[X][CBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 9 at Lapycorias
[X][SBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 8 at Vega

[X][DIPLO] Remain focused on Sydraxians
 
Thing is, we cannot realistically afford to build swarms of specialist escorts during this decade in addition to the cruiser and explorer programs we've already more or less committed to. It is far more believable that we will be doing so in the early 2320s... but the time to get ships we'll be building then will be in the 2316 and 2320 reviews, not the 2308 reviews.
That's exactly the point, we are already very top-heavy, and I find it more likely that in the 2330s we'll be looking to downgrade cruisers into escorts and talk about Ambassador-A and Excelsior-B and Renaissance-A instead of actually developing the smaller ships. All because of...
Given that we're trying to avoid attritional losses to our starship force by building individually high-quality units, there's not a lot of point to a ship like this.
...this policy in which we build generalist units, even though we mostly agree that that's bad, because we're trying to build closet warships.

Okay, a little question, how open-ended would people like their options to be for responding to this crisis (insofar as Starfleet units go)?
We should set policy, rather than devise operations. We're already a bit too hands-on for what a leader of a national armed forces would actually decide.

[X][SOE] Arrange for an SoE immediately following a Cardassian guarantee for Celos
Immediate SoE is too strong for the amount of seats the Hawks control, and Peace At Any Price is just as bad. Let's not repeat the Maquis incident.

[X][SFTF1] Support Operations on Freedom
[X][SFTF2] Conduct blockade at Celos
[X][UETF] Escort shipping
[X][ATF] Escort shipping
Mix up agressive and passive operations. We'll letthe Aeroknights handle Celos, might as well keep SFTF2 with them; with ka'Sharren leading, winning at Celos should be easier. Keep everybody else doing what they were doing, no biggie. Until Cardassia decides whether they want to tango.

[X][CBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 9 at Lapycorias
[X][SBZ] Focus on defence of Starbase 8 at Vega
Avoid poking the bears until war is inevitable.

[X][DIPLO] Remain focused on Sydraxians
[ ][DIPLO] Impress on all affiliates to avoid provocations
Tentatively stick to our guns, although keeping affiliates from screwing up is tempting.
 
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