Given future knowledge I think we'll want to cut that short and see if we can max out our build capacity with the NX-class. They're a proper cruiser to patrol trade lanes and we'll need them to defend ourselves from the Romulans.The longer I look at the math the more I'm of the opinion that we should NEVER build as many ships as we can unless we face an immediate crisis.
The way the industry grows, we lose out on a whole slew of future ships for every ship we build today.
If we can consistently spend as little Industry as possible, the magnitude of those "minimum" options (16, 24, and 32 are 46%, 69% and 91% of 35 respectively) will outpace the magnitude of the maximum options in short order.
The numbers I ran were for 50%, 66% and 75%. If we pick a percentage and stick to spending that much industry consistently, then the magnitude of 50% will outpace the magnitude of both 66% and 75% after only 15 years.
If we start with 40 industry it goes like this:
75%: 30 -> 38 -> 47 -> 58
66%: 26 -> 36 -> 48 -> 64
50%: 20 -> 30 -> 45 -> 68
The less we spend consistently, the more we actually have in the long term.
It only takes the first 15 years of frugalness to get our instantaneous build capacity on an upwards trajectory above the alternatives, and in terms of total industry spent over the whole lifetime, it only takes 20 years for a 50% strategy to beat out 75%.
So my question is, do we absolutely need to build more than 4 ships? Because doing more than the minimum outside of a crisis is a habit that is going to cripple our long-term build capacity.
[X] Six Ships over Four Years (-24 Industry)
Questions that doesn't actually matter: are the displacements given loaded or unloaded? And roughly how much tonnage of cargo can the freighter carry?
I fully understand if the answer to both is "I don't want to get into that much detail in this quest".
Well, if we're assuming that maintenance periods are going to be a thing we may want to account for that. No idea how the numbers are going to shake out for United Earth spaceships, but IIRC it's not that unreasonable a number for a blue water navy to have anywhere from a third to maybe a half of a ship class undergoing maintenance at any time. If we apply that number to the cargo ships here 6 ships will have us operating 3-4 at any time unless we start adjusting maintenance schedules, while 4 would have us working with 2-3.So my question is, do we absolutely need to build more than 4 ships? Because doing more than the minimum outside of a crisis is a habit that is going to cripple our long-term build capacity.
It's important, don't get me wrong, but the Stingray for being able to defend Earth Territory is more so at the moment. The NX is going to be MASSIVE for it's place in both where the story will take it as well as it's status as our first Warp 5 craft, as well as being a tech testbed for MANY technologies over the years.This thing is going to be the logistical backbone to any early expansion efforts. It may not look impressive to us as we're used to the vastly more capable ships of TOS and TNG, but long term, this class will be vastly more important than most any other ships we'll design or build.