The longer I look at the math the more I'm of the opinion that we should NEVER build as many ships as we can unless we face an immediate crisis.
The way the industry grows, we lose out on a whole slew of future ships for every ship we build today.
If we can consistently spend as little Industry as possible, the magnitude of those "minimum" options (16, 24, and 32 are 46%, 69% and 91% of 35 respectively) will outpace the magnitude of the maximum options in short order.
The numbers I ran were for 50%, 66% and 75%. If we pick a percentage and stick to spending that much industry consistently, then the magnitude of 50% will outpace the magnitude of both 66% and 75% after only 15 years.
If we start with 40 industry it goes like this:
75%: 30 -> 38 -> 47 -> 58
66%: 26 -> 36 -> 48 -> 64
50%: 20 -> 30 -> 45 -> 68
The less we spend consistently, the more we actually have in the long term.
It only takes the first 15 years of frugalness to get our instantaneous build capacity on an upwards trajectory above the alternatives, and in terms of total industry spent over the whole lifetime, it only takes 20 years for a 50% strategy to beat out 75%.
So my question is, do we absolutely need to build more than 4 ships? Because doing more than the minimum outside of a crisis is a habit that is going to cripple our long-term build capacity.