Reference point: Apprehension #13 is where Oriko first reveals the changes in the timeline. Reviewing from there.
Active action: heading to Sendai
Known: University is in conflict with 2 Sendai members and (probably, by this point) Fukushima.
Known: Akiko, Sakura and Rin are probably back in the city by now, though unlikely to be directly involved in the fighting yet.
Predicted: University will be withdrawing from the city in a bit over six hours. We have possibly altered that by having Ishinomaki contact University.
Mami's early perspective: Territory grab. At least partially wrong (confirmed by Oriko in the next update).
University group noted (by Mami) as "getting their support from others". In other words, extortion. However, from what we know, over the last couple years it's been Sendai that's extorting University. Who was University supposedly extorting? The old Sendai group? Independents? Who can they manage to extort while they're under Sendai's thumb?
University recruitment attempt of Mami: "That was... late last year? December" So, three to four months ago. Significantly more recent than many of the thread discussions allow for. It also means that the death and other girl leaving had to have been very recent — within the last couple months, probably.
That means the pressure on the University group went way up, recently. They just lost two of their members, after a year or two of living under Sendai's thumb. The ambush is definitely a desperation move.
With 6 in University vs the 4-5 in Sendai, University would at least hold a nominal edge in any conflict. Dropping to 4 in University vs 5 in Sendai, and with Akiko's desire to completely crush them, they can't really afford to sit idly about.
Akiko pauses for a moment before responding. "Hiyoriyama park, near the center of the city, it should be quite obvious. It's on a hilltop. We teleported there... I'm somewhere... north of it."
When they arrived in the city, all three of them were together. They split up to an extent that Sakura was not able to teleport to Akiko.
You have the faintest impression that there should have been tsunami damage, but there's none to be seen - it hasn't come through yet, maybe?
Didn't realize, but this was actually mentioned
before my speculation on the tsunami (so it's not an update comment that incorporates random thread discussion).
Back to the University...
"I suspect the University group was convinced to do this by the Ishinomaki Group," she says. "And I called in a favour with the Fukushima group to help when it became clear that we were outnumbered."
...
"Four of them?" Mami asks. "Weren't there six of them?"
"One of them left," Akiko says. "The last one... died." She grimaces, looking away.
Given the apparent recentness of these events, Akiko likely thinks that the University group is crumbling. It would also explain why she felt the Ishinomaki group orchestrated this. Ishinomaki is still a strong seven members, and she might think that the University group's recent losses make them ripe for being used by Ishinomaki for their grudge issue with Sendai. It also implies that she didn't think the University girls were strong enough to actually fight back at this point.
"I was there t-to heal another independent," Rin offers. "Kato Setsuko."
Akiko tilts her head to indicate agreement. "I don't know how much you've heard, Miss Sabrina, but Ishinomaki and us have... not been on the best of terms, in recent years."
"I heard about it," Mami says, voice forbidding. With her arms still folded, she directs a disapproving, regal frown upon Akiko, looking down upon her despite their nearly equal heights. "You've been fighting back and forth for... two years?"
Akiko's face tightens. "We have, yes."
I'm going to bet on Akiko's reaction here is concern that Mami might know more about the Kato Setsuko issue, possibly blowing her cover.
Sakura's scowl deepens, too, and her grip tightens on her katana as she stares down Kirika. The black haired girl gives as good as she gets, an unblinking, citrine orange glare and a feral smirk displaying far too many teeth.
And Sakura is preparing for a fight if that info leaks.
"They claimed to be suing for a truce, but attacked me when I got there," Akiko says, as if it's the most obvious thing in the world, her lips curling into a scowl. "During the negotiations... which were presumably a feint."
Aside from Ishinomaki claiming that Akiko was the one who called for the talks, we have another data conflict: Akiko claims the attack happened during the negotiations, while Ishinomaki claimed to have initiated the attack the day before the talks were supposed to be held because they found Akiko there early.
Of the two, I'm far more inclined to believe Ishinomaki because it admits to guilt, while Akiko's paints her as an innocent.
Sakura scowls at you, expression shifting between slight queasiness and raw dislike. Rin, on the other hand, gives you a quick smile, before it's subsumed back into the worried frown that she's been wearing the entire time.
Rin likes us, but is worried. There's the obvious reasons, of a tense discussion, but I'm wondering if it isn't more than that. Rather, that she's at least somewhat aware of the deception, and doesn't like it.
Schedule:
University contacts Ishinomaki for an alliance, but no specific plans.
Akiko contacts Ishinomaki for 'talks' of an unspecified nature.
Akiko is caught in Ishinomaki early, prompting Ishinomaki's ambush.
Akiko has been running exorbitant extortion for close to two years now. They have to have built up a pretty significant stockpile of grief seeds by now.
Akiko wants
something in Ishinomaki. Ishinomaki claims to not know what that might be.
One question I wish was asked of the Ishinomaki girls: *Where* did they first find Akiko. Can we telepath that question back at them real quick?
If they found Akiko skulking about in their city, then Akiko was taking advantage of her early arrival to try to ferret out whatever she was interested in. Probably had Sakura and Rin there for the same purpose. If Akiko was found near the Ishinomaki's 'headquarters', it's likely that Akiko believes that the Ishinomaki group has whatever it is she's after. If she was found elsewhere, then it's only the territory she's interested in; it's something in the city that she wants, not something that the Ishinomaki group has.
Why does Akiko want the University group dead? I'm starting to suspect it's related to Mami's comment about the University group
also being extortionists. Could something about their activity have led to the witching of that sixth Sendai girl?
Speculation:
University on par with Sendai, both extorting others for their livelihood.
University somehow triggers a grief spiral in Sendai #6, who witches out.
Kato witnesses this, freaks, and runs.
Kato probably avoided staying in Mitakihara because she could see that Mami didn't know the witchbomb secret.
Kato passes through Ishinomaki, but eventually moves on.
Kato eventually witches out.
Her witch tries to return to Sendai.
It gets as far as Ishinomaki, when the Ishinomaki girls kill it.
-- Alternatively, it's 'trapped' in Ishinomaki, somehow, but the girls in that area never killed it (leave it to allow familiar farming?).
Kyuubey relays the info that Ishinomaki killed Kato to Akiko (most likely in the "it's their fault" sort of phrasing).
Akiko has already gone full-hate on University for their part in Sendai #6's 'death' and Kato's flight.
Akiko turns that hate on Ishinomaki and tries to take revenge for them killing Kato.
This implies Akiko had very strong feelings for Kato.
Akiko eventually learns the witchbomb. May not know it explicitly at the time she goes after Ishinomaki.
Akiko comes up with The Plan. This involves massive grief seed accumulation.
Crushing University is just a pleasant side-project, for their part in this mess.
She succeeded in returning the favor to University by witching one of theirs, and causing a second to flee.
Akiko believes that there is
something in Ishinomaki that will help her achieve her Plan (likely to revive Kato).
Part of this involves acquiring a healer who can help rebuild the body.
Sabrina's appearance opens up interesting possibilities on the grief side.
But there's still a Key somewhere in Ishinomaki, and she doesn't necessarily believe that the Ishinomaki group has it, or is aware of it.