Kyuubey's statements aren't wrong, exactly, but they're not right, either. However, as you say, that could be from the perspective of dumbing down the example for a middle schooler.

Especially since he specifically states:
Kyubey Episode 9 said:
Let me give you a simple example

Bold is mine.

A more precise description of entropy is that "the entropy of a physical system is the minimum number of bits you need to fully describe the detailed state of the system." Of course, it's a bit difficult to make that make sense to a non-physicist. (You can read this and this for a nice series of explanations of what entropy is and what it means.)

I'll have to remember to read those. Personally I enjoy this video to explain Entropy.

In general, adding an arbitrary quantity of energy to a system (such as collecting grief energy) cannot reduce entropy (the total number of bits required to describe the system... Edit: this assumes that the energy is part of the system itself; it applied from 'outside' the system, it can reduce entropy), although it can reduce average entropy (the number of bits out of the total bit count that are necessary to describe any one element of the system).

Kyubey does state that they were looking for a system not bound by the laws of Thermodynamics so it could possibly be viewed as outside of the system.

So the Incubators are not saving the universe from Heath Death , they solve some sort of energy crisis amongst a Noosphere or oikumene and use bafflegab to talk around the fact that this at best will be a sort of far-future benefit to us if they do not decide to sacrifice us to the needs of the more advanced races. That is the new theory, yes ?

Maybe. We don't really know anything about what they want. We just know that they want large amounts of grief for something.

I call shenanigans. If we make a conservative estimate of 100,000 magical girls/witches on earth at any given time with an average lifespan of 1 year over a time period of 100 years, then Gretchen would need to produce more energy than 10,000,000 witches for this to be worthwhile. This is theoretically possible (if Homura's time travel adds to Madoka's potential multiplicatively rather than additively), but it's more likely that Gretchen merely produced enough energy to fill Kyuubey's quota, screwing over the incubators responsible for the other sectors of Earth in the process. Which would make this another instance of the Prisoners' Dilema. Perhaps we will need to make contact with incubators in other sectors to obtain a more balanced response.

By my estimates somewhere between 4.7m and 15.8m grief seeds are consumed every year. So it's more like in the 470m to 1.58 billion times range but as someone else commented Homura is adding entire universes worth of karma to Madoka's potential which is crazy.


As an aside I've been working on a google doc with all sorts of sciency stuff for those interested. Not an actual scientist so I've likely used words/terms wrong and there is probably flaws in my methodology but it is at the very least a start.
 
I'm not really sure what we can draw from hypothetical MG / Witch demographics, because those are based off of a TV show wherein if the consideration given to such things was based off of even napkin math, I would be pleasantly surprised.

If we ever made IC inquiries, I'm willing to bet the numbers would suddenly make more sense.
 
Amendment to the previous post:

I'm letting reality make me forget certain series aspects. Magic/grief by definition can violate the rules about reducing entropy, and I let that interfere a bit with my explanation. However I'm still pretty sure that the Incubators are the equivalent of a big oil corporation.

So the Incubators are not saving the universe from Heath Death , they solve some sort of energy crisis amongst a Noosphere or oikumene and use bafflegab to talk around the fact that this at best will be a sort of far-future benefit to us if they do not decide to sacrifice us to the needs of the more advanced races. That is the new theory, yes ?
Lifespan of the universe == How long existing space-faring civilizations can survive, based on available resources. Technically not how long the universe itself will exist, but how long it will effectively exist for any civilization of interest.

Death of the universe == The fall of all such civilizations. Further, since they ran out of resources, no civilization that comes after them would have any resources to use either. Thus, the end of all possible such civilizations for the remainder of the universe's existence.

Grief/magic == The ability to bypass the entropy accumulation inherent to using mundane fuels, either as a fuel itself, or an additive that would make an existing fuel last indefinitely. Means of creating a perpetual motion machine due to violating the laws of thermodynamics. The degree to which grief/magic itself is a limited resource (eg: will one grief seed last forever, or eventually need replacement?) is unknown.

Given what we know so far — such as Kyuubey being able to process raw grief and not strictly need a grief seed — I'd speculate that either grief acts something like a fuel additive that prevents the fuel being burned from dropping to a more entropic state, or that it can be used to 'process' used fuel to return it to a pristine state. Since Kyuubey repeatedly uses the phrase "reduce entropy", the latter seems more likely.


The above doesn't really help us solve any problems, but it does allow for a sensible perspective on some of the statements that Kyuubey has made.
 
@SWB: We made IC inquiries, to Mami and Sendai group. The numbers can be fudged, but they can't be fudged a lot unless most MGs make wishes preventing witchouts or something.

@Kinematics: The second variant works for speculation "magic >grief".
 
Kyubey saying she fulfills his quota in timeline...4(?). If four loops from homura already lift her onto All the Earth levels, were is she after hundred+?

Now if shes already universal after four....

Maybe we should just have her wish for omnipotence. That would solve stuff. And madoka is one of the few i might trust with that.
She is universal since Homura erases universe every time she loops.

4. 4 Universes if she is additive.

That is so many Earths Avogadro number looks small.
Meguca deal with magic/grief rather than energy in general, so it's unlikely that a loop adds all of the energy in the universe to Madoka's potential. I would bet that a month long time loop adds a month's worth of magic/grief to Madoka's potential. Even if the actual range is universal, the effective range is probably still planetary (unless there are human/meguca/witch populations other planets). That's still a ton of potential; after a couple of loops, it's easily enough to create a witch capable of destroying all life on Earth. But on the other hand it would still require 100 years of looping to equal 100 years of the total magic/grief output.

Let's get some more solid information to base our plans on by asking Homura/Kyuubey for more information or by experimenting:
Are the incubators actually a hivemind, or are they simply a collection of like-minded individuals?
How do different incubators vary in terms of appearance and behavior?
Where could we meet other incubators (if we were so inclined)?
What exactly do they do with the grief they collect?
How large of a range is Kyuubey responsible for?
How many meguca are there in Tokyo? In Japan? In the world? In the universe?
How many other planets do the incubators operate on?
What other systems of collecting energy do they use?
When did the incubators first arrive on Earth?
Was the meguca/witch system created by the incubators, or did it exist on Earth before they arrived?
Has the meguca to normal human population ratio changed over time, or has it been mostly static?
Do the incubators have access to FTL travel or communication?
Can we obtain any numbers (or even basic approximations) about the energy/grief potential for each witch that we know about from Homura's notebook?
How much potential do each of the meguca (and potential meguca) that we know have?
Has anyone (apart from Madoka) had a change in potential over the course of the loops?
How much energy do the Incubators collect from the creation of a witch; how does this compare to the amount of energy they collect from a grief seed for that same witch?
Is the amount of grief in each seed about the same, or is there a lot of variation?
Can normal people see grief/magical constructs?
Why do meguca give their grief seeds to Kyuubey rather than letting the seeds hatch again and collecting a new grief seed from the witch?
When Kyuubey says that a wish "reduces entropy", what does he mean by that, exactly? Is he just assuming that it does (because meguca produce magic/grief out of nothing), or does he have some means of measuring entropy/energy and can see that the wish affected things?

Dangerous experiments that would require Oriko to detect potential disasters:
Collect as much grief as we can by draining all of the grief seeds that we have access to. Do any problems occur from having this much grief in one place? Is there a limit to the amount of grief we can control?
Compress all of the grief into witch-stuff. Problems and limits?
Stuff as much grief into a single grief seed as it can handle. How much can it handle? Can we prevent it from hatching?
Let a seed hatch: can we produce more grief than we put into it by harvesting it again? Are there any changes to the witch the second time around? Is there any difference between the hatching of a normal seed and the hatching of a cleared seed?
Edit: What happens if we leave a huge quantity of grief outside our range?
 
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Meguca deal with magic/grief rather than energy in general, so it's unlikely that a loop adds all of the energy in the universe to Madoka's potential. I would bet that a month long time loop adds a month's worth of magic/grief to Madoka's potential. Even if the actual range is universal, the effective range is probably still planetary (unless there are human/meguca/witch populations other planets). That's still a ton of potential; after a couple of loops, it's easily enough to create a witch capable of destroying all life on Earth. But on the other hand it would still require 100 years of looping to equal 100 years of the total magic/grief output.

Let's get some more solid information to base our plans on by asking Homura/Kyuubey for more information or by experimenting:
Are the incubators actually a hivemind, or are they simply a collection of like-minded individuals?
How do different incubators vary in terms of appearance and behavior?
Where could we meet other incubators (if we were so inclined)?
What exactly do they do with the grief they collect?
How large of a range is Kyuubey responsible for?
How many meguca are there in Tokyo? In Japan? In the world? In the universe?
How many other planets do the incubators operate on?
What other systems of collecting energy do they use?
When did the incubators first arrive on Earth?
Was the meguca/witch system created by the incubators, or did it exist on Earth before they arrived?
Has the meguca to normal human population ratio changed over time, or has it been mostly static?
Do the incubators have access to FTL travel or communication?
Can we obtain any numbers (or even basic approximations) about the energy/grief potential for each witch that we know about from Homura's notebook?
How much potential do each of the meguca (and potential meguca) that we know have?
Has anyone (apart from Madoka) had a change in potential over the course of the loops?
How much energy do the Incubators collect from the creation of a witch; how does this compare to the amount of energy they collect from a grief seed for that same witch?
Is the amount of grief in each seed about the same, or is there a lot of variation?
Can normal people see grief/magical constructs?
Why do meguca give their grief seeds to Kyuubey rather than letting the seeds hatch again and collecting a new grief seed from the witch?
When Kyuubey says that a wish "reduces entropy", what does he mean by that, exactly? Is he just assuming that it does (because meguca produce magic/grief out of nothing), or does he have some means of measuring entropy/energy and can see that the wish affected things?

Dangerous experiments that would require Oriko to detect potential disasters:
Collect as much grief as we can by draining all of the grief seeds that we have access to. Do any problems occur from having this much grief in one place? Is there a limit to the amount of grief we can control?
Compress all of the grief into witch-stuff. Problems and limits?
Stuff as much grief into a single grief seed as it can handle. How much can it handle? Can we prevent it from hatching?
Let a seed hatch: can we produce more grief than we put into it by harvesting it again? Are there any changes to the witch the second time around? Is there any difference between the hatching of a normal seed and the hatching of a cleared seed?

Oomph , Lots of Questions, and we can only hope that Kyuubey deigns to answer them , and aNswer them for free - but yes, information is our second best tool (except for grief control):
 
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Collect as much grief as we can by draining all of the grief seeds that we have access to. Do any problems occur from having this much grief in one place? Is there a limit to the amount of grief we can control?
This one shouldn't be an issue. We wished to control ALL Grief. Leaving too much Grief in one place outside of our range is probaby bad considering we felt it trying to do something before disapating last time. Other than that we've got effectively absolute control of an Grief inside of 100m.

We're gonna have to ask Coobs about a bunch of that other shit though. That won't be fun.
 
@'Lement because both MG and therefore witch populations are controlled arbitrarily and artificially, and because we don't know the conditions nor frequency familiars become witches (other than wild guesses), and because we don't and cannot know if our locales or experiences are a representative sample...

If we knew from IC info rather than just guessing how many magical girls there were in the entire world, it would be a lot more credible to do calculations based on supposed average use. Even then, I would still take issue with using the conclusions, but at least they would be proper estimates than wild guesses
 
We keep meaning to. It's even made it into winning votes once or twice.

The test that we meant to do but forgot to was grief basketball leaves our control', I think.
 
And despite that almost at the start, we still havent gotten around to investigating this rather obvious thing.
Clearly, to satisfy Sayaka's desire to pay us back after we heal Kyousuke, we must draft her as part of our Griefbusters team.

Now, the question is will she end up as Adam Savage, or Tory Belleci?
 
In fact, the writing itself has felt a bit 'off' in that regard, even allowing for the horror factor. It feels like really really bad fanfics, where the main character tells some shortened version of past events (Ranma's cat fist training is an extremely common example), and everyone who hears it is immediately horrified beyond belief, willing to burn at the stake anyone even remotely involved in harming our dear sweet protagonist.
*wince*

Ouch. Tweaked it a bit.
 
Also.
Vote tally:
##### 3.20
[x] Go help Mami with dinner
[x] Ask if the others are staying for dinner
-[x] If they aren't, get Homura to walk them home.
[x] Serve dinner, move on to less depressing topics. Keep things light.
[x] Watch the news. Check up on the aftermath of the Sendai Kerfluffle.
No. of votes: 4
Cannongerbil, Ugolino, EtchedSteel, SynchronizedWritersBlock

[X] Assist Mami with making dinner
[X] Ice Cream is good for dealing with emotional trauma, right?
[X] I don't have any memories from before last week and I strongly suspect that I didn't even exist before then. But that doesn't really bother me. My wish was to control all grief; looking back I realize that maybe it was rather pretentious of me to want to be the solution to all of the problems that grief causes. But I've been going around trying to do just that. I keep getting frustrated when people keep wanting to fight each other over grief problems that my powers can easily solve, but at the same time I have been able to make a positive difference. I just don't know if I can make a permanent difference.
[X] Ask for help thinking up ways that we can use our grief powers.
[X] Watch the news. Check up on the aftermath of the Sendai Kerfluffle.
No. of votes: 2
boonerunner, Gadjo

[X] Assist Mami with making dinner
[X] Ice Cream is good for dealing with emotional trauma, right?
[X] Watch the news. Check up on the aftermath of the Sendai Kerfluffle.
No. of votes: 1
moonstne
 
[X] Assist Mami with making dinner
[X] Ice Cream is good for dealing with emotional trauma, right?
[X] Watch the news. Check up on the aftermath of the Sendai Kerfluffle.
 
Eh... Being a hivemind, I suspect the incubators would never work against one another.
You do realise that evidence for an incubator hivemind is spotty at best, right? It doesn't make alot of sense when you consider that they have insane individual within their society.
 
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[X] Assist Mami with making dinner
[X] Ice Cream is good for dealing with emotional trauma, right?
-[jk] Make Grief ice cream.
[X] Watch the news. Check up on the aftermath of the Sendai Kerfluffle.
 
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[X] Assist Mami with making dinner
[X] Ice Cream is good for dealing with emotional trauma, right?
-[jk] Make Grief ice cream.
[X] Watch the news. Check up on theaftermath of the Sendai Kerfluffle.
 
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