I think the biggest thing we need to do is evaluate what happens in both the gradients of success and failure. Then we need to consider our chances of success and how that impacts reflective.
I'm going to use the cease fire option as an example. I think we can all agree that it is a high risk high reward option, right? It is the most complicated option, with the success of the negotiation not based on just our communication checks (hell, it's not based on just our checks in general). There are a lot of parts that could go wrong and sabotage the negotiation or turn it into a negligible success that would otherwise be a lot better.
The big point I want to get to is what happens if we fail, specifically in regards to our reflective trait. We already have a victory here, although it's a small one. If things go wrong with it, it can turn that into a defeat. How would Kakara feel if she chose negotiation, it broke down, and the people under her were killed or seriously hurt? She knows this can be over in an instant with no more damage, so she'll know that she was the reason they were able to do it. Some degree of the people's blood would be on her hands. That's some serious trauma to get through, and it would really fuck up our progress on reflective.
I'm not saying the cease fire is the wrong option, but we need to think of what could go wrong in addition to what can go right.
(Sorry for any errors and/or typos. I'm on my phone right now so typing is a bitch)