After reading the arguments and thinking some more, I agree with the medium refugee wave since that way we have a good chance of getting the Golden Age. If we don't get the Golden Age, we're in a bad position due to everything overflowing into Martial.
I've been convinced that sending out reassurances is probably a good idea. We don't want them getting nervous about us, we need to digest all the land we just conquered. And it's 3 secondaries, quite worthwhile.
Also we just got WoAN that Centralization resistance rounds up, so any loss in Centralization leads to a corresponding -1 to our Temp Econ Damage Resistance. Seeings as we need at least a Sec Black Soil, going to a [Main] has a lot of potential good. It'll also hopefully tell us what the "Other Effects" are.
Black Soil:
*S: +2-3 Econ Expansion
*M: -2 Econ, 1 Forest Slot Consumed, +6 Econ Expansion, other effects [King]
* used 3 times
The first is +2 EE, the second is +8. It guarantees that we don't run out of room next turn, whereas the former is a little risky.
Econ loss: 4 temp [Conq], 6 temp [Refugee], 2 PttS, 2 BS, -1 from resistance = 13 Econ loss, we're still safe. (We're at -1 total modifier to temp damage if we take any Centralization hit)
[X] [Conq] Take the northern lowlands (Thunder Speakers become vassal, Txolla annex additional territory, gain Ruined Thunder Horse as vassal, remainder fragment, -4 Econ and 4 temporary Econ damage from supporting wrecked vassal)
[X] [Refugee] Send out runners that you have food and intact farmland (6 temporary Econ damage, -6-8 Econ Expansion, -1 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ next turn)
[X] [PttS] Horse Valley
[X] [PttS] 0 Stability
[X] [Diplo] Send out reassurances (Sec Trade Mission to Khemetri, Trelli, and Harmurri)
[X] [PSN] Lots more black soil (Main Black Soil, -2 Centralization)