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Paths of Civilization

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DragonParadox said:
Nobility in humility is not a negative. It is neutral since it makes crit fails rarer and less damaging. Hence why it is a value and not a debilitating belief
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Nobility in Humility is not a negative, correct. However, it's side effect reducing hero generation is. That's why that part is listed as a con.

Saying it isn't is like saying that Cosmopolitan Acceptance's inability to avoid a 'good' chance of stability loss and control immigration isn't a downside. It is a small downside outweighed by the rewards, but a downside none the less.

We took a Trait that reduced our chances of spawning heroes, and the dice rewarded us with three of them. We obtained a Trait that penalised metal research, turned down the offer to remove it once given to us, and the dice rewarded us with one of the greatest metal discoveries we could get.
The dice gods might be fickle, but I have faith in them.
 
[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
Adhoc vote count started by Motoko on May 18, 2017 at 7:44 AM, finished with 238 posts and 71 votes.
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Omegahugger said:
Nobility in Humility is not a negative, correct. However, it's side effect reducing hero generation is. That's why that part is listed as a con.

Saying it isn't is like saying that Cosmopolitan Acceptance's inability to avoid a 'good' chance of stability loss and control immigration isn't a downside. It is a small downside outweighed by the rewards, but a downside none the less.

We took a Trait that reduced our chances of spawning heroes, and the dice rewarded us with three of them. We obtained a Trait that penalised metal research, turned down the offer to remove it once given to us, and the dice rewarded us with one of the greatest metal discoveries we could get.
The dice gods might be fickle, but I have faith in them.
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You tried to cobble together a pattern from two data points which share not even passing similarity (one is a net negative,the other is not). That does not even go into seriously basing anything on the predictability of the explicitly and intentionally random (the dice).
 
So... Game Theory.

We cannot effect whether the comet comes or not.

A) Comet/Disaster arrives
B) All's well

In case of A)
1) We take steps: Belief is strengthened, but we are prepared. [Average]
2) We ignore it: Belief is still strengthened, and now we have civil uprising due to making a mistake, and we're not prepared [Very Bad]

In case if B)
1) We take steps: Belief is weakened, we have reserves. But we may have done some unnecessary things [Good]
2) We ignore it: Belief is either weakened, or not affected (because no one remembers about it). We get to do other stuff [Average]

Clearly, it is best if we take countermeasures. We either get an Average result, or a Good result.
Where else, if we ignore it, we get Average results, or Very Bad results.

Be safe. Take precaution.

[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
 
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2xMachina said:
So... Game Theory.

We cannot effect whether the comet comes or not.

A) Comet/Disaster arrives
B) All's well

In case of A)
1) We take steps: Belief is strengthened, but we are prepared. [Average]
2) We ignore it: Belief is still strengthened, and now we have civil uprising due to making a mistake, and we're not prepared [Very Bad]

In case if B)
1) We take steps: Belief is weakened, we have reserves. But we may have done some unnecessary things [Good]
2) We ignore it: Belief is either weakened, or not affected (because no one remembers about it). We get to do other stuff [Average]

Clearly, it is best if we take countermeasures. We either get an Average result, or a Good result.
Where else, if we ignore it, we get Average results, or Very Bad results.
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The strengthened belief could lead to long term instability though propagation of omen-reading and if we legitimize it by preparing, the needed "disaster" will have to be much smaller to cement the belief.
 
DragonParadox said:
The strengthened belief could lead to long term instability though propagation of omen-reading and if we legitimize it by preparing, the needed "disaster" will have to be much smaller to cement the belief.
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And it wouldn't if we ignored it?

They'll STILL gonna be omen-reading, and "I TOLD you so" is gonna strengthened it so much more than "Huh, maybe we are right to listen to insane people sometimes"

Omen reading is a function of whether disaster arrives, and nothing to do with our choice.
Only, if we choose wrong, it gets worse.

If disaster doesn't arrive, no one will omen-read. And probably, those who believed and prepared will get laughed at for stupidstition, and further weaken belief.
And if we ignored it, people would have forgotten, and this case is not recorded as a Wrong Evidence.
 
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DragonParadox said:
You tried to cobble together a pattern from two data points which share not even passing similarity (one is a net negative,the other is not). That does not even go into seriously basing anything on the predictability of the explicitly and intentionally random (the dice).
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In these games, you need faith that the dice don't screw you over no matter what options you pick. Why not give them just a bit more if it makes you have more fun?

2xMachina said:
1) We take steps: Belief is weakened, we have reserves. But we may have done some unnecessary things [Good]
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Stupid and baseless arguments aside, I do not agree with this part of the analysis. Belief will not neccesarily be weakened, if some of our people remember the words and retroactively apply them to the new catastrophe. The same goes if something goes sufficiently wrong at the Star Mirror or Bleeding Rocks site as well.

And there are three resources we need in case of a comet. Mysticism to tell people it's not a big deal, Economy for stockpiling and Stability to take in refugees that'll probably come with the increased unrest overall. And in all three categories we are not particularly strong at the moment. Preparing for the comet allows us to obtain Stability while only 'paying' for Economy, meaning we won't have to dedicate our entire turn to preparations.
 
Omegahugger said:
In these games, you need faith that the dice don't screw you over no matter what options you pick. Why not give them just a bit more if it makes you have more fun?


Stupid and baseless arguments aside, I do not agree with this part of the analysis. Belief will not neccesarily be weakened, if some of our people remember the words and retroactively apply them to the new catastrophe. The same goes if something goes sufficiently wrong at the Star Mirror or Bleeding Rocks site as well.

And there are three resources we need in case of a comet. Mysticism to tell people it's not a big deal, Economy for stockpiling and Stability to take in refugees that'll probably come with the increased unrest overall. And in all three categories we are not particularly strong at the moment. Preparing for the comet allows us to obtain Stability while only 'paying' for Economy, meaning we won't have to dedicate our entire turn to preparations.
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If nothing happens, how can they apply the "prophecy"? They can only be laughed at for being stupidstitious.

If problems come:
If we prepare, we make sure we have enough Econ and Stab at least.
If we don't? We don't have Stab, probably spent the Econ somewhere. And where does that leave us?

We cannot avoid unpleasant things by ignoring them.
 
[X] This man is sick, care for him but ignore his ramblings (???)
[X] Military scouting mission


I will never support superstition.
 
[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
 
DkArthas said:
[X] This man is sick, care for him but ignore his ramblings (???)
[X] Military scouting mission


I will never support superstition.
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What I'm saying is...
How about you "Strawman" superstition?
Purposely take the position of a superstition , and proof it wrong?

That's is the key to Scientific Method: Assume something is true, and proof it wrong.
We need that if we want to upgrade Observance: keep disproving things we observe.
Not ignore the observance.
 
2xMachina said:
If nothing happens, how can they apply the "prophecy"? They can only be laughed at for being stupidstitious.

If problems come:
If we prepare, we make sure we have enough Econ and Stab at least.
If we don't? We don't have Stab, probably spent the Econ somewhere. And where does that leave us?

We cannot avoid unpleasant things by ignoring them.
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Because they will make a mountain out of a molehill to prove the prophecy right. After all if the king and the shamans believed it there must be something to it. Observence works against us here. If you look for patterns long enough you will find it.
 
I am going to be very annoyed if we have to delay building an iron mine next turn, even though the next action set is very much necessary if we want to prevent panic due to DOOM comet.
 
DragonParadox said:
Because they will make a mountain out of a molehill to prove the prophecy right. After all if the king and the shamans believed it there must be something to it. Observence works against us here. If you look for patterns long enough you will find it.
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So, you're saying, this Hill isn't the one we want to fight on, cause we'd probably lose?

In any case, we really need to take a stand sometime, and fight back.
Lock it in, disprove it MAJORly, that no one may argue that superstition is STUPID.\

If we always just ignore it, it'll just gain ground.
 
2xMachina said:
So, you're saying, this Hill isn't the one we want to fight on, cause we'd probably lose?

In any case, we really need to take a stand sometime, and fight back.
Lock it in, disprove it MAJORly, that no one may argue that superstition is STUPID.\

If we always just ignore it, it'll just gain ground.
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This particular set of ramblings is too vague to definitively disprove. By the time the tale circulates every village will have read whatever the hell they want into it. The only thing everyone will agree on is that it must be important because the king believed it.
 
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DragonParadox said:
This particular set of ramblings is too vague to definitively disprove. By the time the tale circulates every village will have read whatever the hell they want into it.
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In this case... then the A) Disaster arrives should always trigger.

If we ignored it, people will complain we didn't do anything AND rather listen more to insane people than their king, by believing in stupidstition
If we prepared, people will think our King made a good decision, and believe more in stupidstition.

Stupidstition belief is guaranteed.

That's a lose-big lose scenario. Whether we want to lose more or not.

It's not like suppressing the insane ramblings depend on our choice.
Regardless we SHOULD suppress the insane ramblings.

No one said that we need to announce to everyone why we're stockpiling.
 
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2xMachina said:
In this case... then the A) Disaster arrives should always trigger.

If we ignored it, people will complain we didn't do anything AND rather listen more to insane people than their king, by believing in stupidstition
If we prepared, people will think our King made a good decision, and believe more in stupidstition.

That's a lose-big lose scenario. Whether we want to lose more or not.

It's not like suppressing the insane ramblings depend on our choice.
Regardless we SHOULD suppress the insane ramblings.

No one said that we need to announce to everyone why we're stockpiling.
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If we do not give the insane ramblings the imprimatur of royal authority and nothing truly catastrophic happens no one will remember head wound guy. Obscurity is real the enemy of doomsayers.

Basically what I'm saying is that the threshold for faulty pattern recognition becomes much lower if the king legitimizes this lunatic.
 
DragonParadox said:
If we do not give the insane ramblings the imprimatur of royal authority and nothing truly catastrophic happens no one will remember head wound guy. Obscurity is real the enemy of doomsayers.

Basically what I'm saying is that the threshold for faulty pattern recognition becomes much lower if the king legitimizes this lunatic.
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Unless he keeps talking about things vaguely related to disaster and then disaster manages to strike. Then people certainly remember him, because this is already a noteworthy worthy event. You can tell it is a noteworthy event, because the players and the king both made note of it.

At least with royal attention said superstition is not regulated entirely by the rumour mill.
 
Well considering the current vote this should be !!FUN!! no matter how it shakes out.


Kiba said:
I am going to be very annoyed if we have to delay building an iron mine next turn, even though the next action set is very much necessary if we want to prevent panic due to DOOM comet.
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I have concluded that even if the comet is not coming the thread will not go for an iron mine next turn, just in case it is coming in the following mid turn. We will have to wait until the next project turn after this coming one before we can try for it. I am not going to fight for the mine hard enough to convince them, one because they have something of a point, and two because arguing that hard is too stressful.

Also if it does come next mid turn we will be recovering for the next two main turns, and then we can get the mine.

So in worst case we will be opening the mine in three main turns from now, (the coming one plus the next two).
 
BungieONI said:
Well considering the current vote this should be !!FUN!! no matter how it shakes out.



I have concluded that even if the comet is not coming the thread will not go for an iron mine next turn, just in case it is coming in the following mid turn. We will have to wait until the next project turn after this coming one before we can try for it. I am not going to fight for the mine hard enough to convince them, one because they have something of a point, and two because arguing that hard is too stressful.

Also if it does come next mid turn we will be recovering for the next two main turns, and then we can get the mine.

So in worst case we will be opening the mine in three main turns from now, (the coming one plus the next two).
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I am utterly against the mine till we got our stability and legitimacy up again.
 
DragonParadox said:
If we do not give the insane ramblings the imprimatur of royal authority and nothing truly catastrophic happens no one will remember head wound guy. Obscurity is real the enemy of doomsayers.

Basically what I'm saying is that the threshold for faulty pattern recognition becomes much lower if the king legitimizes this lunatic.
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But if something DOES happen the king will look like a fool and we will take additional stab and legit damage when we at present cannot afford and get the mallus people are trying to avoid it is a neutral-lose scenario here one I cannot understand why many people are voting for it.
 
[x] Examine Star Mirror (possibility of disrupting holy site, ???)
[x] Military scouting mission

I'm prepared to tactical vote for sick if needed. I don't value 1 stab that high. And I'm 80% sure Comet is a trap option.
 
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