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Paths of Civilization

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Reader of all said:
And doing nothing and having the calamity come will mean we ignored the warnings of the spirits the common people will be pissed.
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It's a risk I'm willing to take. The law of averages says it is unlikely for the madman to predict calamity. I'm wagering we do not crit fail (and it would have to be a crit fail if we do not legitimize the belief) on the roll in an attempt to prevent a long term debilitating belief on the scale of Weapons of the Gods.

On the thee hand if we legitimize this lunatic confirmation bias will be on his side and anything mildly inconvenient will "prove' he was right.
 
Reader of all said:
And doing nothing and having the calamity come will mean we ignored the warnings of the spirits the common people will be pissed.
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I personally think that the +1 Stab you talk about in addition to the +1 from the stockpile will be eaten by the comet because our folks will still freak out.
Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 3:42 AM, finished with 186 posts and 53 votes.
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DragonParadox said:
It's a risk I'm willing to take. The law of averages says it is unlikely for the madman to predict calamity. I'm wagering we do not crit fail (and it would have to be a crit fail if we do not legitimize the belief) on the roll in an attempt to prevent a long term debilitating belief on the scale of Weapons of the Gods.
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Then so be it but I for one am not going to risk our civ being caught flat footed all for the sake of principle and OOC information keep in mind AN has not outright said that spirits or magic do not exist in this world.
BungieONI said:
I personally think that the +1 Stab you talk about in addition to the +1 from the stockpile will be eaten by the comet because our folks will still freak out.
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Unlikely forewarned is forearmed the people will not panic rather they will be resigned because they knew this day is coming so they would have already panicked once the government spread the word and once the comet comes all that will be left is grim acceptance.
 
BungieONI said:
Not really in my view, I've thought about that very thing and I say that it becomes more "We can see comets if we look in the pool." Than "This guy is right."

Personally though my true feelings is that this is all a crock of shit because it takes my mine away. For example if veekie's plan fails and the comet comes (which I doubt it is) then whoop we have social unrest and the Debilitating Belief. If Study the Shiny Pool wins I see the worst outcome being that we make progress on developing the idea that babbling = prophet, but do not gain it. The reason is that with the pool we are only focusing on part of what he says, and with observance the other parts we are not focused on are much less emphasized. With stockpile we take the whole thing and go "Yep this guy knows what he's talking about" and thus get the Belief.


True. But a prophet's prophecies are usually vague enough that disproving them is very difficult. See previous update.
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Yeah, I can see what you mean. I just feel that choosing the comet option is the best for avoiding possibly worse consequences if we don't take it and the comet happens. I freely admit my main motivation is the stability, though :D
 
[X] Examine Star Mirror (possibility of disrupting holy site, ???)
[X] Military scouting mission

My intrigue is piqued enough, time to see what Star Mirror is all about.
 
[X] This man is sick, care for him but ignore his ramblings (???)
[X] Military scouting mission
 
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Shard said:
We.. don't have to? The next insane prophet who turns out wrong will rekt the belief.

And evolving Observence might eventually resolve the beliefs over time, anyhow. Metal aversion is actually quite good for ecohippies.
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The belief in prophecy is basically impossible to disprove.

If the comet doesn't happen? Well obviously we misintepreted the signs, the oracle is right.

Prophecy from the deranged is far more toxic and difficult to remove than the metal idea.

Look at what he said.
"Black mirror sun spear ash bleeding vein return sky streak."

Black Mirror
-Anything to do with the night sky
-Anything to do with calm waters
-Anything to do with a dark shiny substance like obsidian, soot grease or polished iron

Mirror Sun
-Anything reflective interacting with any bright light.

Sun Spear
-Metal weapons
-'Sun' colored materials like Bronze and Brass.

Spear Ash
-Poisonous ash?
-Some kind of black colored weapon?

Ash Bleeding
-Red ash?
-Poisoned wounds?
-Burnt red rocks?

Bleeding Vein
-Anything that causes bleeding. Massive spread.

Vein Return
-This here would require poetic reading. Return something to the vein of mineral? Payment in blood?

Return Sky
-Oh okay, the gods want their shiny back. Burn it to reach the heavens.

Sky Streak
-Or a comet is coming?

I can come up with the following equally applicable interpretations:
-He is predicting that smelting iron will bring back the comet.
-He is predicting that the spirits want their shiny back and we should stop working with all this copper and iron heresy.
-He is predicting that a volcano is about to erupt.
-He is predicting that iron or bronze will come to kill our people.
-He is predicting that metal can be found at the Black Mirror
-He is predicting that we'd craft a magic artifact weapon.
-He is predicting that for taking the weapons of the gods, we must pay in blood.
-He is predicting that Nomads will attack us soon.

Good or bad, you can 'prove' a prophecy this vague applies. If it missed, clearly the interpreter picked the wrong completely coincidental event.

How do you even disprove it once you believe it has basis?
Simple. You don't believe him immediately.
You set your shamans to scour the heavens. Any comet? No, then it's not referring to comets.
You set your hunters to scour the land. Anything weird? No, then it's not one of the sites affected.
You prepare your stockpiles just in case. Anything goes wrong, you have stockpiles. Nothing goes wrong, then you lost only time.

If you want to prevent a Debilitating belief that only a Golden Age special event would let us burn off, then you accept that it MIGHT be a delusion first, then you check to see if it's right and prepare anyway.

For that you need to Ignore first, Study second.
Not buy into toxic beliefs for a minor Stability bonus which we were normally going to get anyway.
 
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[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
 
[X] This man is sick, care for him but ignore his ramblings (???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
 
Actually rereading in detail he's hallicinating a nightmare of evil starmetal and believes we must offer proper sacrifices in return for using the weapons of the gods.

Simplest explanation accessible to a warrior's knowledge.
 
veekie said:
The belief in prophecy is basically impossible to disprove.

If the comet doesn't happen? Well obviously we misintepreted the signs, the oracle is right.

Prophecy from the deranged is far more toxic and difficult to remove than the metal idea.
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Then that just mean we can interpret it however we like.
 
Watch the comet come in like 5 turns and we still remember this prophecy and prophets join our mythology.

Alternatively it'll come and nothing bad happens. Because fuck expectations
 
I think it also may be a point to choose a spiritualistic vs materialistic view of the universe, like in Stellaris.

And neither may be wrong, it just will shape our people differently.


...so do we want psionic or synthetic ascension?
:p
 
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Shard said:
Then that just mean we can interpret it however we like.
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No, a belief like that would be interpreted by everyone. You don't get to pick, and fear spreads faster than hope.
-Kings can invoke prophecy to justify their decisions instead of explaining it to the council convincingly. Citing prophecy gives them an argument that cannot be disputed effectively.
-Shamans can read the signs that will reinforce their traditional beliefs and superstitions.
-Revolutionaries point to the disfavor of the spirits regarding the central government. Consider the Young Stallions crisis if they had someone willing to rant and rave for their cause.
-The common people however, will be interpreting prophecy to answer their fears. Assume they will believe the worst case prophecies, especially at low Stability

See some of these prophecies still believed all the way to the modern day. If disproven, the time has not yet come, or the nature of the event was spiritually significant. I mean, heck, the Beast of Revelations refers to a long dead emperor in metaphor(which never came about since they died before doing anything of the sort). It's still believed by substantial numbers even now.

Once the belief goes out, it's down to the masses.
We have enough problems without handing them fuel.
 
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[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
 
[X] Military scouting mission

[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)

Eh. The DOOM COMET is just about due for another go round, so why not.
 
I have sneaking suspicion we will get something like this from listening to madmen:

Debilitating belief: Trust in Omens

Ware the Prophets of Doom: All stability drops have a chance to cause one additional stability hit
 
[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
 
[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
 
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