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Paths of Civilization

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sidestory said:
You have no proof for that

Stab loss fRom Comets & econ stand in no relation outside of the action we are offered here
If you have to argue in favor of ignoring the guy, either stay with proven facts and stop spreadIng Debilitating Beliefs for your own convenience or go and get the quotes to back up your arguements

As it is I request a :Citation Needed: for where AN clearly says that enough econ prevents a stability loss from a comet/meteorit
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A crisis has ALWAYS given us a mid turn choice to solve it. Which usually involved Economy costs:
-What's that in the sky
--Event automatically solved for free by Heroic Shaman King
-An emissary arrives with news of DOOM
--Mid turn action available to use Grand Sacrifice, uses 1 to 4 Economy.
--Mid turn action available to use Restore Order.
--Mid turn action to sacrifice the King.
-Just like you imagined
--Event automatically resolved for free by Study Health crit.

As such, Preparing prevents the disaster from blowing us up because:
-Comet linked disease - Econ allows mid-turn Grand Sacrifice if we fail the roll.
-Comet linked drought - Econ represents food stores. We ignore the drought by having reserves.
-Comet linked war - Econ allows emergency military buildup.
-Comet linked refugees - Show some restraint?
 
DragonParadox said:
That's not what he is saying. Basically his point is that if we accumulate econ as the madman said the rulers will be able to spin it as having heeded his warning if a comet does come.
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Basically. People will still panic, but having Econ available deals with pretty much every problem it can cause, thus assuring the people that the King knows what he's doing. Especially if we have been seen telling the shamans to check everything.

It puts the trust point in the King, not random head injuries
 
Shard said:
We get a stability boost from stockpiling, though. Isn't that worth, like, 2 actions?
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Yep. But getting rid of the head trauma/insane = prophet Debilitating Belief is going to take upwards of 10 actions and a lot of luck to disprove.
Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 3:02 AM, finished with 166 posts and 49 votes.
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Kiba said:
We haven't heard of any attack on our neighbors. They might be conquering other nomad tribes or something.
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They don't have to be our neighbours just like how the Thunder Horse went East and conquered a bunch of city states the nomads up north may have also done the same with their hero general.
 
I wonder what Dead Priest did with their head trauma patients? Did they get fed to the gods or taken as useful jesters with insights?

Too bad we can't ask them.
 
BungieONI said:
Do you want the Debilitating Belief: Touched Prophets? Picking to stockpile and then the comet arriving will give it to us and that is gonna mean a fuckload more of these guys are gonna show up and cause all sorts of complications.
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And if we don't stockpile and the comet comes, then we likely lose a load of stability because we 'ignored' or 'misinterpreted the spirits message'. Out of all the possibilities, the Doom Comet seems the worst to be unprepared for. I also can't resist the siren call of extra stability :D

To be honest, in my opinion, each of the options has a chance of it backfiring and a debilitating belief appearing. If the action to study the pool wins and the event is to do with that, then hasn't this guys ramblings been confirmed as true in the eyes of the People? If we dismiss his ramblings and an event happens that's related to the options, then won't the People decide that he was spirit touched and should have been listened to?

On the other tentacle, if nothing happens and his ramblings turn out to be, well, just ramblings, then it seems like that's a chance for a positive belief of not listening to the guy who's had a recent head wound and botched primitive brain surgery. Possibly linked with Observance.
 
[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)

I want to find out ??? and I worry that the Nomads after failing to defeat us decided to try conqueror the Metal Workers.
 
Honestly I think there's a good chance of getting Believe Prophets anyway if the comet shows because guy maybe infested with spirits says the comet's coming, then the comet comes. I think the point of veekie's idea is to mitigate the idea of "head trauma prophets are real" with "well sometimes check first because they could just be super concussed". Which is frankly not certain to work but that's where the point of that plan is.
 
I wonder if this is how the Greeks got the Oracle of Delphi in AN world? I find it fun to try and consider what must have happened for the world to be as it is today if reality was run by these mechanics like it explains why Egypt built the pyramids it was a repeatable megaproject that probably gave some sweet bonuses.

Also I feel people are overplaying the effect that ignoring the 'prophecy' will have since the average person won't know that some crazy guy said something that might be interpreted as being a part of a 'prophecy'.
 
If the metal workers are being conquered, we would have known an impact on our trade. Also, Metal Workers live in their mountain/hills, which is like, really hard to dig out.

Another thing to note: nobody pledge loyalty to us or the ST. They might have gotten scared off.

Is anybody paranoid about the nomads? My stomach is feeling upset for the past two days. It's not good to be stressed out by a quest of all thing.
 
[X] Military scouting mission

I honestly can't see people sending a trade mission to the Metal Workers as anything than chasing a shiny. I fail to see them being aware of what our group of nomads is doing.
 
BungieONI said:
Yep. But getting rid of the head trauma/insane = prophet Debilitating Belief is going to take upwards of 10 actions and a lot of luck to disprove.
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We.. don't have to? The next insane prophet who turns out wrong will rekt the belief.

And evolving Observence might eventually resolve the beliefs over time, anyhow. Metal aversion is actually quite good for ecohippies.
 
Inspirit said:
And if we don't stockpile and the comet comes, then we likely lose a load of stability because we 'ignored' or 'misinterpreted the spirits message'. Out of all the possibilities, the Doom Comet seems the worst to be unprepared for. I also can't resist the siren call of extra stability :D

To be honest, in my opinion, each of the options has a chance of it backfiring and a debilitating belief appearing. If the action to study the pool wins and the event is to do with that, then hasn't this guys ramblings been confirmed as true in the eyes of the People? If we dismiss his ramblings and an event happens that's related to the options, then won't the People decide that he was spirit touched and should have been listened to?

On the other tentacle, if nothing happens and his ramblings turn out to be, well, just ramblings, then it seems like that's a chance for a positive belief of not listening to the guy who's had a recent head wound and botched primitive brain surgery. Possibly linked with Observance.
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Not really in my view, I've thought about that very thing and I say that it becomes more "We can see comets if we look in the pool." Than "This guy is right."

Personally though my true feelings is that this is all a crock of shit because it takes my mine away. For example if veekie's plan fails and the comet comes (which I doubt it is) then whoop we have social unrest and the Debilitating Belief. If Study the Shiny Pool wins I see the worst outcome being that we make progress on developing the idea that babbling = prophet, but do not gain it. The reason is that with the pool we are only focusing on part of what he says, and with observance the other parts we are not focused on are much less emphasized. With stockpile we take the whole thing and go "Yep this guy knows what he's talking about" and thus get the Belief.

Shard said:
We.. don't have to? The next insane prophet who turns out wrong will rekt the belief.

And evolving Observence might eventually resolve the beliefs over time, anyhow. Metal aversion is actually quite good for ecohippies.
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True. But a prophet's prophecies are usually vague enough that disproving them is very difficult. See previous update.
Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 3:16 AM, finished with 177 posts and 51 votes.
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Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 3:30 AM, finished with 181 posts and 53 votes.
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Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 3:33 AM, finished with 181 posts and 53 votes.
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Seriously people why does the risks in not believing this guy which is at LEAST -1 stab and -1 legitimacy if the comet comes outweigh preparing for a calamity which if it does not come would just prove this guy as a madman and if it does would actually give us +1 stab initially and +1 legit and stab once it comes!?
 
Chrestomanci said:
Only if the comet returns, and if it returns we could gain that belief in any option.
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If anything bad happens. It will be seen as having misinterpreted the vision.

Reader of all said:
Seriously people why does the risks in not believing this guy which is at LEAST -1 stab and -1 legitimacy if the comet comes outweigh preparing for a calamity which if it does not come would just prove this guy as a madman and if it does would actually give us +1 stab initially and +1 legit and stab once it comes!?
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Because as rational people we know lunatics do not predict comets or anything else and enshrining the belief as a core tenet of Ymaryn religion is bad.
 
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