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Paths of Civilization

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Reader of all said:
Frankly you people expect too much from a copper age civ.


Oh really say you were the average copper age farmer and saw the comet that your ancestors have told you that great doom is coming you then found out that the king had known all about this event yet did nothing with this information you would of course be rightfully pissed.

And while you people may be right about that not being enough for civil war it would still lead to discontent and loss of trust in the government making us lose stab and legitimacy for no gain AND will get us the debilitating beliefe you people are trying to avoid!
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And we have also been saying that doing Star Mirror or Bleeding Cliffs is not nothing. Please do not mono-focus and fear monger, even unintentionally, in your own panic.
 
Reader of all said:
But if what the man foretold does happen we will be on the brink of civil war. Plus skepticism is bad if you have no scientific basis for proving stuff we are in the copper age still and have no scientific method the debilitating belief if overcome could evolve observance. But if we refuse to observe and form hypothesis no matter how false we will never arive to the true answer.

Yes he is but the risks from ignoring him outway the risks from listening to him we are at stab 0 legit 2 right now what do you think will happen to us if a calamity happens and people know we were forewarned yet did nothing about it?
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Except if we ignore him and maintain the Econ reserve anyway we won't have to face the Stability hit because we'd be able to take action during the crisis mid-turn if it happens.

We can prepare without believing him, because it's good practice anyways.
So if we pick "This guy is probably just sick" and then follow up next turn with something like:
-Main Expand Economy
-Secondary Study Stars
-Secondary Survey

It says:
-We don't rely on an injured man for snap prophecy, but we are looking into the problem to make sure.
-We look at the stars to see if a comet is really coming.
-We check out the land to see if theres anything to his babblings.
-We build a stockpile, because this is just good sense.

You know, establish a precedent for confirming the evidence with a second source rather than believing the very first thing that shows up.

Its basically just baseless fearmongering that we are unable to make preparations without believing it to be anything more than an injury.
 
veekie said:
Except if we ignore him and maintain the Econ reserve anyway we won't have to face the Stability hit because we'd be able to take action during the crisis mid-turn if it happens.

We can prepare without believing him, because it's good practice anyways.
So if we pick "This guy is probably just sick" and then follow up next turn with something like:
-Main Expand Economy
-Secondary Study Stars
-Secondary Survey

It says:
-We don't rely on an injured man for snap prophecy, but we are looking into the problem to make sure.
-We look at the stars to see if a comet is really coming.
-We check out the land to see if theres anything to his babblings.
-We build a stockpile, because this is just good sense.

You know, establish a precedent for confirming the evidence with a second source rather than believing the very first thing that shows up.

Its basically just baseless fearmongering that we are unable to make preparations without believing it to be anything more than an injury.
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Ooh I like that even if it does not have my mine.

But also so we don't over focus there is the fact that Star Mirror and Bleeding Cliffs are also doing something visible.
Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 2:18 AM, finished with 137 posts and 46 votes.
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Adhoc vote count started by Umi-san on May 18, 2017 at 2:18 AM, finished with 138 posts and 46 votes.
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BungieONI said:
And we have also been saying that doing Star Mirror or Bleeding Cliffs is not nothing. Please do not mono-focus and fear monger, even unintentionally, in your own panic.
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I am not mono focusing hell if it means that doing nothing will lose I will gladly switch to the other options at least those will be seen as doing something.
veekie said:
Except if we ignore him and maintain the Econ reserve anyway we won't have to face the Stability hit because we'd be able to take action during the crisis mid-turn if it happens.

We can prepare without believing him, because it's good practice anyways.
So if we pick "This guy is probably just sick" and then follow up next turn with something like:
-Main Expand Economy
-Secondary Study Stars
-Secondary Survey

It says:
-We don't rely on an injured man for snap prophecy, but we are looking into the problem to make sure.
-We look at the stars to see if a comet is really coming.
-We check out the land to see if theres anything to his babblings.
-We build a stockpile, because this is just good sense.

You know, establish a precedent for confirming the evidence with a second source rather than believing the very first thing that shows up.

Its basically just baseless fearmongering that we are unable to make preparations without believing it to be anything more than an injury.
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I do not believe you let us just let AN see if said plan is viable

@Academia Nut would doing what Veekie suggest mitigate the chance of us losing stability and legitimacy if a calamity happens?
 
veekie said:
We can prepare without believing him, because it's good practice anyways.
So if we pick "This guy is probably just sick" and then follow up next turn with something like:
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Well.

I suppose the deadline for the stability boost makes it a fair assumption that we'll have time to carry out these actions.

But it is an assumption.
 
BungieONI said:
To take a deeper look at our options and how they interact with the dreaded Observance.
Do note with these options if a comet only comes on the mid turn then we won't know the exact permutation of the outcome until the mid turn, so we will have some time.

[] Examine Star Mirror (possibility of disrupting holy site, ???)
This has us go look at the Star Mirror in Black River. What will we find is the question? If the comet comes and we find something then that won't have much effect one way or the other on Weapons of the Gods. What it may do is that we see the comet early in the mirror lake and get an early warning system and a positive proc from Observance.

If the comet comes and we did not find anything we will be neutral. We will have gone over there and seen "Hey we didn't find anything and this comet is here." The only reason it is neutral, is sadly it can't weaken Weapons of the Gods from what I can see. At least not directly.

If the comet does not come and we do find something then yippie! Whatever it is will at least be tangentially related to study stars and that is always good.

If nothing comes out of it then it was a "wasted action" but it did show our people the kings and chiefs are doing something. This counters the nebulous legitimacy and stability costs that come with ignoring him.

[] Examine Bleeding Cliff (possibility of disrupting settlement activity, ???)
This has us go look at the Bleeding Cliff. What will we find is the question? If the comet comes and we find something then that, depending on the nature of what we find, may strengthen Weapons of the Gods, because "hey we found something and here is the comet they must be connected".

If the comet comes and we did not find anything we will be neutral or weakening the Weapons of the Gods. We will have gone over there and seen "Hey we didn't find anything and this comet is here. Confusion?" The only reason it is neutral instead of good is that this can be explained away by saying "We just didn't look hard enough".

If the comet does not come and we do find something then yippie! Whatever it is will at least be tangentially related to metal and that is always good. If it's a toxic thing for example we now know about it and can deal with it.

If nothing comes out of it then it was a "wasted action" but it did show our people the kings and chiefs are doing something. Same legitimacy and stability things as the Star Mirror.


[] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)

The strongest "listen to him option" this has a distinct chance of giving us a madmen are prophets Belief. Which would be bad we generally all agree.

If the comet comes and we have done this then it means a very strong chance to get a new superstition which is that insane people are touched by spirits and are prophets.

If the comet does not come it is a big blow to Observance's con and we get some mild relief/humor/embarrassment for the chiefs and king.



[] This man is sick, care for him but ignore his ramblings (???)

If the comet comes and we did this we will have massive social backlash.

If it does not come and we did this then not a lot is gonna change. We set a precedent that the insane and head trauma victims are sick and not touched by vorlons. E: or at least they may be touched by vorlons but they can't tell the future.



By doing Star Mirror or Bleeding Cliffs we are exploring parts of the prophecy while not risking social backlash or really severe issues in superstitions. Even if the comet comes we will have been visibly doing something and that cancels out the legitimacy and stability hits. Basically "The Kings and Chiefs listened and found X." Depending on X we have a strong chance of developing either a good observation or coming out neutral.

Also thanks @veekie for the analysis of the options.

My vote is still.

[X] Examine Star Mirror (possibility of disrupting holy site, ???)
[X] Military scouting mission
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Thats fine. This is well reasoned even if I disagree with the end choice.

BungieONI said:
Ooh I like that even if it does not have my mine.

But also so we don't over focus there is the fact that Star Mirror and Bleeding Cliffs are also doing something visible.
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I'd rank worst to best being:
Bleeding Cliffs - Major risk of reinforcing existing superstition.

Comet - Significant risk of validating mad prophets and spawning even MORE of these.

Star Mirror - Largely neutral.

Sickness - Precedent that people are sick first. Requires the followup turn to be done right to avoid trouble/backfire.
 
veekie said:
It says:
-We don't rely on an injured man for snap prophecy, but we are looking into the problem to make sure.
-We look at the stars to see if a comet is really coming.
-We check out the land to see if theres anything to his babblings.
-We build a stockpile, because this is just good sense.

You know, establish a precedent for confirming the evidence with a second source rather than believing the very first thing that shows up.

Its basically just baseless fearmongering that we are unable to make preparations without believing it to be anything more than an injury.
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OK this is more convincing. The notion of false prophets is easier to swallow at our level than that there are no prophets.

[X] This man is sick, care for him but ignore his ramblings (???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)
 
[X] This man is sick, care for him but ignore his ramblings (???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)

OK. Changed my mind.
 
veekie said:
Except if we ignore him and maintain the Econ reserve anyway we won't have to face the Stability hit because we'd be able to take action during the crisis mid-turn if it happens.
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You have no proof for that

Stab loss fRom Comets & econ stand in no relation outside of the action we are offered here
If you have to argue in favor of ignoring the guy, either stay with proven facts and stop spreadIng Debilitating Beliefs for your own convenience or go and get the quotes to back up your arguements

As it is I request a :Citation Needed: for where AN clearly says that enough econ prevents a stability loss from a comet/meteorit
 
By picking Star Mirror it has a very high chance if it gives something to have our people make the observation that we can see comets coming. Don't you want to be able to lord it over the other polities, thread?


veekie said:
Thats fine. This is well reasoned even if I disagree with the end choice.


I'd rank worst to best being:
Bleeding Cliffs - Major risk of reinforcing existing superstition.

Comet - Significant risk of validating mad prophets and spawning even MORE of these.

Star Mirror - Largely neutral.

Sickness - Precedent that people are sick first. Requires the followup turn to be done right to avoid trouble/backfire.
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With the sickness route veekie I think the best that can come out of that is disproving that sick people are capable of being prophets. The idea that sick people are caused by demons is going to be here for a while yet.

I personally don't want to risk the social backlash. If your expand + Stars + survey is viable I am okay with it winning.
Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 2:26 AM, finished with 150 posts and 47 votes.
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Anybody wants to speculate on why the nomads are not even approaching us?

We did a WRAGH, but we did not do a WRAGH that is absolutely extreme by burning the grassland and such.
 
sidestory said:
You have no proof for that

Stab loss fRom Comets & econ stand in no relation outside of the action we are offered here
If you have to argue in favor of ignoring the guy, either stay with proven facts and stop spreadIng Debilitating Beliefs for your own convenience or go and get the quotes to back up your arguements

As it is I request a :Citation Needed: for where AN clearly says that enough econ prevents a stability loss from a comet/meteorit
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That's not what he is saying. Basically his point is that if we accumulate econ as the madman said the rulers will be able to spin it as having heeded his warning if a comet does come.
 
Agreed that being able to whether the storm is important... but more importantly does the ~10 year "wait" have an impact as well? Like, if we can ignore, then follow up with investigate/prep anyway and be okay... obvious have our cake and eat it too kinda deal here.
 
Kiba said:
Anybody wants to speculate on why the nomads are not even approaching us?

We did a WRAGH, but we did not do a WRAGH that is absolutely extreme by burning the grassland and such.
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They are either conquering another civ or they are running away from something. The only two options available for nomads.
 
[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)

I have a bad feeling something that costs a lot of stability is coming. This prepares us in case the Doom Comet makes an appearance, it also has the added bonus of stockpiling in case another event happens as well. If the Comet doesn't arrive, then we have econ to play with and got some sweet stability.

The Metal Workers is to see if they have any info on the nomads, and see what they've been up to since we last visited. I don't think the Thunder Horse would be a good option, and I believe we'd have to do really well on the dice rolls to succeed with the nomad actions. They don't want to be seen and I'd rather try asking our neighbours, than striking out into the steppe in the hopes we stumble across whatever they're up to.
 
Umi-san said:
we could just study stars. Also, ptts will probably provide comet resistance.
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Another interesting/amusing thing is that if the DOOM does come next time, and we verify it is the DOOM then we the players will know the next time it will come around in an rather accurate approximation because we now have to points of information. Long term prep ho!
 
Inspirit said:
[X] Stockpile resources for the return of the Doom Comet (+1 Stability if over 5 Econ by mid-turn next turn, ???)
[X] Trade mission to the Metal Workers (-1 Diplomacy)

I have a bad feeling something that costs a lot of stability is coming. This prepares us in case the Doom Comet makes an appearance, it also has the added bonus of stockpiling in case another event happens as well. If the Comet doesn't arrive, then we have econ to play with and got some sweet stability.

The Metal Workers is to see if they have any info on the nomads, and see what they've been up to since we last visited. I don't think the Thunder Horse would be a good option, and I believe we'd have to do really well on the dice rolls to succeed with the nomad actions. They don't want to be seen and I'd rather try asking our neighbours, than striking out into the steppe in the hopes we stumble across whatever they're up to.
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Do you want the Debilitating Belief: Touched Prophets? Picking to stockpile and then the comet arriving will give it to us and that is gonna mean a fuckload more of these guys are gonna show up and cause all sorts of complications.
Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 2:35 AM, finished with 158 posts and 48 votes.
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Adhoc vote count started by BungieONI on May 18, 2017 at 2:44 AM, finished with 161 posts and 48 votes.
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DragonParadox said:
That's not what he is saying. Basically his point is that if we accumulate econ as the madman said the rulers will be able to spin it as having heeded his warning if a comet does come.
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And I say it doesn' work like that, because the way I See it, listening to him means acting on it and spreading the warning about the coming doom among our people and let them prepare for it,
Thus by not acting on it, we won't spread the message & our people will feel caught off guard from the comet regardless of our econ, thus resulting in a new Stability loss and even more trouble if people remember that guy and remember that we did't act on his warnings

Ignoring means ignoring the issue and not prentending to not act on it in order to keep the population calm and secretly act on it anyway in order to reap the benefits in case it is really true
 
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