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Paths of Civilization

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Reader of all said:
Not really -4+-1=-5+2=-3 we have stab 2 so it would take us to at most Stab -2 if there is an additional stab hit. I am not choosing the option because I enjoy being at positive stab but you are being paranoid.
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You're kind of thinking of it wrong. Admin roll dictates when actions occur. Nvm you just either didn't include the female King or the possible additional drop. I'm dumb, sorry.

The immigration is likely to occur before the King takes the throne, and possibly before the sacrifice. If it comes w/ an additional drop it's likely to occur soon.

So, in an unlikely worst-case scenario, we might go 2 - 4 = -2 -1 = -3 (normal) -1 (unlucky) = -4 (dead) + 2 (2 late, lol) = -2.

tryrar said:
Re-read the bolded part. That means mining and studying metal is a stability hit. It has nothing to do with study health or other study actions
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This makes sense to me.

notgreat said:
It's not the -4 that's bad, it's the -5. When we immediately hold a GS afterwards it's effectively only a -2. I'm in favor of the -3.5 option which has a chance of giving us -4. The -5 is the one that has a chance of breaking our civ.

Sure, but how do we do it in-universe? How do we prevent them from doing a study, getting a little unlucky and just confirming the belief?
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Um.... you mean a -5 fall, right? We're not going to actually end up at -5 stability. Just, potentially, at -4 in a worst case scenario, but more likely at -3, and even more likely at a -2.

I mean... how do we prevent them from doing that at literally any point in time? We can't. Waiting to solve the plague just means more people die and our stability slowly lowers. Fix the problem, then fix the belief in a steadier environment.

Remember that metal is "cursed"!!! aka it needn't result in the disease per say but can result in other ill effects. If we prove that it doesn't, then the belief goes away.
 
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[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects)
[X] You have lots of room (-2 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ, chance of further effects)

tryrar said:
Because the earlier we disprove the belief the easier it IS to disprove, which Study health is FOR.
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Personally I am suspicious that we will not be able to disprove the belief at all given our level of social reasoning and previous gm word on our ability to get new stuff with health study after beating cholera, which will result in a humiliating failure for our new female king and possible societal setbacks in gender equality. I would rather we plan to focus on something she is skilled at so as to have a lasting achievement, such as diplomacy or roads or perhaps a salt gift. Studying health and metal, and nothing else, with her in charge would be a waste of her skills.
 
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[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
Prefer New Trails more then True City status.
 
[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects)
[X] You have lots of room (-2 Stability, chance of further loss, +6-8 Econ, chance of further effects
 
What a bipolar set of rolls. Literally a potentially run ending belief if we can't stomp it out.

[X] Random Construction tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

Construction over Admin for me because it's both sparser and we're so close to really getting some amazing architectural stuff.
Otherwise, if you're not voting Mags then you haven't been reading Academia Nut's answers about male leadership bias that we need to fight and keep fighting, but I think that one's close to unanimous.
GS for Stab post Mags selection and then the probable Stab hit from Take in some.
 
veekie said:
Fixes the Stability hit immediately. Not that urgent though. We're in positives.
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... Come to think of it, we're going to be much shorter on econ with the Baby Boom ending.

Letting stability drop to -1 and running Restore Order would be more resource efficient, and probably necessary for implementing better countermeasures for pertussis than the current "let's just avoid metal" meme.

I'll switch to New Trails.

[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
 
[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability)
[X] Let it be known that you have room (-1 Stability, chance of further loss, +4-5 Econ)

Lands at +1-0 Stab. Hopefully leaves us in an alright place to get to work fixing the Cough and getting everyone accustomed to metal.
 
[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
 
drake_azathoth said:
...We just got a debilitating belief that means we will be losing stability every time we try to do anything with metal. Getting rid of it will almost definitely cost stability, and our means of getting stability back are limited.

The whooping cough or whatever is still ravaging the lowlands and taxing our own people's ability to cope with it. And you want to throw us into negative stability so we can have a city full of infected immigrants that our doctors won't be able to handle?
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The -3.5 option has a chance of hitting -1 stability. We can then do the Dam over

2 turns and get to either 0 or 1 stability. Add in a single GS and we're right back where we started.
tryrar said:
We Main study health MAIN study metal. This is the best shot currently for disproving things.
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Umi-san said:
I mean... how do we prevent them from doing that at literally any point in time? We can't. Waiting to solve the plague just means more people die and our stability slowly lowers. Fix the problem, then fix the belief in a steadier environment.
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And it has a better chance of disproving things when it's less likely to have corrupted results due to one person in the study group having been infected beforehand. Right now the disease is ripping through our population at an incredibly high speed. It'll naturally die down a little as our people start to build a resistance to it.

That being said it looks like the next highest-voted choice is the -4.5 which has a chance of breaking our civ, so I'll just admit defeat on the voting front.

[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] New Trails (-1 Econ, +1 Diplo, +1 Centralization, other effects)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

This is closest to my preferred vote, switching refugee effects for New Trails and losing a few points of econ. (+1 econ instead of +5-8)

Umi-san said:
Um.... you mean a -5 fall, right? We're not going to actually end up at -5 stability. Just, potentially, at -4 in a worst case scenario, but more likely at -3.
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Yeah, he was talking about taking a -4 hit. We can't get to -5, that is correct. We take up to -5 from refugees, which would put us at -4 stability. We break the moment we touch -4 stability.
 
If we don't fight the stab fall now then we can't both get the province and change the policy and thus not waste its actions.

Edit: lol nvm policy -> Expansion would work. silly me.
 
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[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
 
tryrar said:
.....



Re-read the bolded part. That means mining and studying metal is a stability hit. It has nothing to do with study health or other study actions
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Studying health would prove that the metal has no connection to the disease, so there is a narrative connection...as i've repeated several times now (3 times? 4?).

If AN replies that only study metal costs stability then great, as it would mean my assumption was wrong.

I'm done going in circles with you on this as you've been hostile the whole time.
 
notgreat said:
And it has a better chance of disproving things when it's less likely to have corrupted results due to one person in the study group having been infected beforehand. Right now the disease is ripping through our population at an incredibly high speed. It'll naturally die down a little as our people start to build a resistance to it.
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I'm not voting so as to remove the belief, I'm voting so as to remove the disease.

Edit: I anxiously await The Dam and feel that our current Hero is well suited for its construction, or that of roads, I guess...
 
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Inserted tally
Adhoc vote count started by Duesal on May 10, 2017 at 1:17 AM, finished with 142 posts and 36 votes.
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tryrar said:
We Main study health MAIN study metal. This is the best shot currently for disproving things.
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If we do not pair it with study metal it's possible in fact probable that we will study the effects of something else on health. Put yourself in the place of one of our primitives. If the king told you to focus on healing would you jump straight to the death metal? No, that's why it costs stability to tell them to do so specifically.
 
[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
 
[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)

I really want that true city status but I guess we can't afford to do that yet.
 
hylas240 said:
Studying health would prove that the metal has no connection to the disease, so there is a narrative connection...as i've repeated several times now (3 times? 4?).

If AN replies that only study metal costs stability then great, as it would mean my assumption was wrong.

I'm done going in circles with you on this as you've been hostile the whole time.
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......................because it's just so mind-bendingly obvious to not JUST me that study health has no stab hits that I just can't follow your logic.
 
veekie said:
Objective is to ease the strife with the northern tribes. And we probably could use Salt Gift next turn. Salt Gift with a Heroic Diplomacy king is godly.
We don't want a Stability crash at present however. It'd amplify the north problems
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The problem is that appointing female chief is bound to cost more Stability in the future, so we need to take either GS or +Stability option from the Garden.
[X] Random Admin tech upgrade
[X] Magwyna (-1 Stability, other effects, [Poor Martial, Heroic Admin and Diplo])
[X] Grand Sacrifice (-3 Econ, +2 Stability)
[X] Take in some (Chance of stability loss, +2 Econ)
 
Umi-san said:
I'm not voting so as to remove the belief, I'm voting so as to remove the disease.
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We basically can't. We're fairly certain it's the Whooping Cough and IRL that's a disease that we finally made a vaccine for in 1932. We've got advanced vaccine tech, but not that advanced.

That being said, I've given up. New Trails is apparently worth a lot to people, so whatever. Might as well go for that. (New Trails with -0.5 stab gives +1 econ, +1 diplo. Grand Sacrifice with -3.5 stab refugees gives -1.5 stab total and +5-8 econ. Both have "effects". Centralization is free due to Enforce Law.)

edit: These all also get -1 stab from our heroic leader. Current bandwagon gives +1.5 stab, -1 econ. But it sounds like everyone wants to waste the heroic leader doing things she's average at, so idk.
 
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