Y'know what? I'm gonna go ahead and do the vote even without confirmation. Our heir should be ready, and our hierarchy is high enough to deal with a couple minor wobbles during the transition. If it turns out he's not ready I'm definitely switching off of this though.
[X][Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X][Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
Compared to the currently wining vote, math wise we get an extra +1/+2 econ and remove any chance of stability -4 collapse. It doesn't change average stability at the end (-1.7 average), and gives an extra +1 Legitimacy.
Trait wise, so long as we grab both sacrifice "Everything!" and a minimum of "many may enter", any sacrificial trait should be for sacrifice in general rather than human sacrifice directly, which is a lot more workable. We already do that to a degree with LoO and Harmony, so this is doubling down on one of our most powerful traits. So long as people are coming to us, we will sacrifice all that we are able to in order to aid them. It's also very likely that this will elevate Twythulmyn into the realm of our spirits like Gygo and Crow, which would be pretty nice to have.
Vote wise it needs [Sacrifice] +4, [King] +20, [Refugee] +8, half if it comes from people switching. A bit much, but achievable. If [King] fails to pass but the other two do we're at a 9% chance of death and average -2.1 stability, which while worse than the current vote isn't by much.
For more analysis, see
here.
Nope. Its advantages are that it doesn't cost us any resources and it can raise our stability to a higher maximum. Instead of raising a guaranteed 1, it raises by an average of 0.5 as a secondary and 1.13 as a main. Annual festivals are also very likely to be a limited resource since there are only so many reasonable times to have one, though we don't know how many slots we have left.
If the vote wins, presumeably the thread is fine with those odds as well.
Votes are by-line instead of by-plan. Which makes so many things so much more painful.