[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[X][Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
Please don't vote for harmony. There's a ~23 chance that harmony puts us at -4 to start, fracturing us completely
 
If i remember correctly we got prestige for it and traded with HK after getting it. Trade has by this time almost run dry, but word has probably gotten out by now. Even a rumor of a cure existing might drive a desperate leader to action.
Prestige came a turn latter, and there was nothing in the text suggesting that we advertised to the HK that we had it.

We have to at some point. Seriously, this is the sort of situation that Restore was made for, and it's reasonably safe since the only way for it to go wrong is for every single roll to be a crit fail. And at the point that the dice hate us that much, we're doomed anyway. Mostly because we might not have a lot of time to deal with the fallout from this decision. Remember, our knee-jerk reaction in a crisis is to nom our neighbors for Economy by spending Stability. Well, the DP have the same reaction, except they spend Martial. And now? There's much less between us and them than there used to be.
Despite it's wording, it is a better preemptive measure as opposed to a reactionary measure.

When our stability is okay, say 0 or above, it is a good way to get it significantly above. It is also much more dangerous to do as a secondary than as a main. Doing it here is most definitely doing it as a secondary. We should have done it last turn, but doing it now does not fix that issue.
 
So people have been saying that we took the Scourgeward Megaproject so we could stay safe from disease while everyone else perished. But that's not why I voted for it back in the day.

I took the project because I wanted to break the back of disease. I wanted to shatter the demons that literally plagued the People for generations. And now we want to quit halfway? We all know about the Herd Immunity. Vaccines are more effective the more people are vaccinated. And if smallpox cannot travel through Nomad or Hill Kingdom populaces, the chances of it reaching our shores (and whoever haven't been innoculated) fall immensely.

Also remember that the other factions are Nega-SVs. Imagine how we would react if we suffered from devastating plagues and learned that, say, the Spirit Talkers had a cure but didn't want to give it to us because it was "Sacred Knowledge"? For how long do you think we would carry that grudge?

And let me say this outright. If we do this? If we let everyone, including their civilians, slaves, children and forced vassals, die to preserve some nebulous "advantage"? Then we truly deserve the name Devil.

[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)

Ok, using your script(thanks for that by the way!) if we go extreme on all options, we have a 33% chance of coming apart at the seams. Holy fuck.
Funnily enough, reading that number just made me go "Not more? Why aren't we doing that then?".

Yes, those are bad odds, but as someone who plays Hearthstone and Fire Emblem I am used to way worse.
 
So people have been saying that we took the Scourgeward Megaproject so we could stay safe from disease while everyone else perished. But that's not why I voted for it back in the day.

I took the project because I wanted to break the back of disease. I wanted to shatter the demons that literally plagued the People for generations. And now we want to quit halfway? We all know about the Herd Immunity. Vaccines are more effective the more people are vaccinated. And if smallpox cannot travel through Nomad or Hill Kingdom populaces, the chances of it reaching our shores (and whoever haven't been innoculated) fall immensely.

Also remember that the other factions are Nega-SVs. Imagine how we would react if we suffered from devastating plagues and learned that, say, the Spirit Talkers had a cure but didn't want to give it to us because it was "Sacred Knowledge"? For how long do you think we would carry that grudge?

And let me say this outright. If we do this? If we let everyone, including their civilians, slaves, children and forced vassals, die to preserve some nebulous "advantage"? Then we truly deserve the name Devil.

[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)


Funnily enough, reading that number just made me go "Not more? Why aren't we doing that then?".

Yes, those are bad odds, but as someone who plays Hearthstone and Fire Emblem I am used to way worse.
Yeah, but those are solo games you play by yourself. Please don't gamble the thread because you think you can beat the odds that high
 
Yeah, but those are solo games you play by yourself. Please don't gamble the thread because you think you can beat the odds that high
If the vote wins, presumeably the thread is fine with those odds as well.

Like, I do not have the ability to mindcontrol the rest of the voters through the screen. Trust me, if I did, this Quest would've looked a lot different.
 
True.

Edit:If nothing else that's another vote to sac everything, which boosts the current winning combo by quite a bit
 
Y'know what? I'm gonna go ahead and do the vote even without confirmation. Our heir should be ready, and our hierarchy is high enough to deal with a couple minor wobbles during the transition. If it turns out he's not ready I'm definitely switching off of this though.

[X][Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X][Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)

Compared to the currently wining vote, math wise we get an extra +1/+2 econ and remove any chance of stability -4 collapse. It doesn't change average stability at the end (-1.7 average), and gives an extra +1 Legitimacy.

Trait wise, so long as we grab both sacrifice "Everything!" and a minimum of "many may enter", any sacrificial trait should be for sacrifice in general rather than human sacrifice directly, which is a lot more workable. We already do that to a degree with LoO and Harmony, so this is doubling down on one of our most powerful traits. So long as people are coming to us, we will sacrifice all that we are able to in order to aid them. It's also very likely that this will elevate Twythulmyn into the realm of our spirits like Gygo and Crow, which would be pretty nice to have.

Vote wise it needs [Sacrifice] +4, [King] +20, [Refugee] +8, half if it comes from people switching. A bit much, but achievable. If [King] fails to pass but the other two do we're at a 9% chance of death and average -2.1 stability, which while worse than the current vote isn't by much.

For more analysis, see here.

but with higher payout.
Nope. Its advantages are that it doesn't cost us any resources and it can raise our stability to a higher maximum. Instead of raising a guaranteed 1, it raises by an average of 0.5 as a secondary and 1.13 as a main. Annual festivals are also very likely to be a limited resource since there are only so many reasonable times to have one, though we don't know how many slots we have left.

If the vote wins, presumeably the thread is fine with those odds as well.
Votes are by-line instead of by-plan. Which makes so many things so much more painful.
 
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Prestige came a turn latter, and there was nothing in the text suggesting that we advertised to the HK that we had it.
Still trade was, while not prosperous, still happening after we completed the cure. Are you saying none of our traders mentioned it, or a villager explained why the shamans had "special" cattle to a traveling merchant.
Sooner or later our neighbors will notice that we are not getting sick, either by observation or from a refugee who got exiled. You don't need to brag about something to have it be known. Additionally prestige isn't something that seems directed towards our own people, but rather how much of a impression we give our neighbors, and our mega projects are likely part of that score. Meaning that since the cure is part of our great works, it's probably part of the stories that are spread about our people. Humans are gossips like that
 
[X][Sacrifice] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)

I don't want to sacrifice our king for dumb reasons. Yes, self immolation to "speak" to a fucking comet is a stupid reason. :mad:

I maybe persuaded on other things though.
 
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
 
[X][Sacrifice] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)

I don't want to sacrifice our king for dumb reasons. Yes, self immolation to "speak" to a fucking comet is a stupid reason. :mad:

I maybe persuaded on other things though.
Sacrificing all improves the odds of positive stability immensely, while protecting against instadeath from -4 stab
 
Vote Tally : Paths of Civilization | Page 667 | Sufficient Velocity
##### NetTally 1.7.4
Task: Harmony
[X][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
No. of Votes: 31
[x] [Harmony]Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
No. of Votes: 29

——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: King
[x] [King]Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
No. of Votes: 40
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
No. of Votes: 21
[X][King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
No. of Votes: 4

——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Refugee
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
No. of Votes: 22
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
No. of Votes: 14
[x] [Refugee]Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
No. of Votes: 13
[X][Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
No. of Votes: 5
[X] [Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
No. of Votes: 4
[X] [Refugee] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
No. of Votes: 3

——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Sacrifice
[X] [Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
No. of Votes: 30
[x] [Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
No. of Votes: 26
[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
No. of Votes: 8

——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Ward
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
No. of Votes: 37
[x] [Ward]] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
No. of Votes: 14
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
No. of Votes: 7
[X][Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
No. of Votes: 6
Total No. of Voters: 65
 
[X] [Sacrifice] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
Reasons for [King] and [Sacrifice] are that I don't want to end this turn lower than -1 Stab. If we are at -2 or -3 we will have bound ourselves to only take Stability actions next turn.
I am aware that these two could lead to bad traits. But it is my hope that by doing both we lower the significance of the indiviual actions in the eyes of the People.
Reasons for [Ward] and [Refugee] are that I wish to help our allies and get back the Econ we sacrifice.
Adhoc vote count started by Spacegnom on Apr 15, 2017 at 1:09 PM, finished with 487 posts and 75 votes.

Adhoc vote count started by Spacegnom on Apr 15, 2017 at 1:10 PM, finished with 17147 posts and 74 votes.

Adhoc vote count started by Spacegnom on Apr 15, 2017 at 1:12 PM, finished with 17147 posts and 74 votes.

Adhoc vote count started by Spacegnom on Apr 15, 2017 at 1:20 PM, finished with 17147 posts and 74 votes.
 
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[X][Sacrifice] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)

I don't want to sacrifice our king for dumb reasons. Yes, self immolation to "speak" to a fucking comet is a stupid reason. :mad:

I maybe persuaded on other things though.

[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
Please don't restore harmony, please.
In order for it to work, it has to start out at knocking down our stability by one, meaning that every single other sequence of events has to flow just right in order for us to not temporarily hit -4 stability. And thanks to our harmony trait, even if that is temporary, we shatter as soon as it happens.
 
I don't want to sacrifice our king for dumb reasons. Yes, self immolation to "speak" to a fucking comet is a stupid reason.

Math: The immediate stability is a huge bonus, removing any risk of dying to -4 stability. and the extra legitimacy is also very nice so long as we can avoid taking a hit to it over the next couple of turns.

Traits: For metal, our people are going to have to get themselves sick from the various pollutants that metal mining and refining inevitably cause at our tech level. Better to grab a trait relating to self-sacrifice in the aid of the group now with its associated bonuses then to have to grab it later as a bunch of people hate it and don't want to go working in the mines/smithies. And if not metal, there are plenty of other times in which sacrifice for the benefit of the group is incredibly useful.

However, I am definitely against killing him off if we don't take both sacrifice Everything and Many may enter. That has a much stronger chance of getting traits related directly to our leader's sacrifice as opposed to the sacrifice of everything in the pursuit of helping the community, and that's something we definitely want to avoid.

Other: He's dying soon anyway. Better to give him an honorable death and elevate him to to the realm of the spirits than to have him work to death like the rest of our (recent) leaders.
Also, we still haven't conclusively ruled out magic in this setting. It's not likely, but it might actually work.
 
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Math: The immediate stability is a huge bonus, removing any risk of dying to -4 stability. and the extra legitimacy is also very nice so long as we can avoid taking a hit to it over the next couple of turns.

Traits: For metal, our people are going to have to get themselves sick from the various pollutants that metal mining and refining inevitably cause at our tech level. Better to grab a trait relating to self-sacrifice in the aid of the group now with its associated bonuses then to have to grab it later as a bunch of people hate it and don't want to go working in the mines/smithies.

However, I am definitely against killing him off if we don't take both sacrifice Everything and Many may enter. That has a much stronger chance of getting traits related directly to our leader's sacrifice as opposed to the sacrifice of everything in the pursuit of helping the community, and that's something we definitely want to avoid.

Other: He's dying soon anyway. Better to give him an honorable death and elevate him to to the realm of the spirits than to have him work to death like the rest of our (recent) leaders.
Also, we still haven't conclusively ruled out magic in this setting. It's not likely, but it might actually work.
I should note, that the only other way of getting a 0% chance of crashing our civilization is:
[Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
And nothing that would take a greater stability hit than-
[Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
 
Please don't restore harmony, please.
In order for it to work, it has to start out at knocking down our stability by one, meaning that every single other sequence of events has to flow just right in order for us to not temporarily hit -4 stability. And thanks to our harmony trait, even if that is temporary, we shatter as soon as it happens.

Fine, I'll take your word for it.

[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
 
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Fine, I'll take your word for it.

[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
.....you quote him and do restore harmony anyways. Wat.
 
Fine, I'll take your word for it.

[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
But, but you're still voting to restore harmony?
 
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