- Location
- Panama City
your plan has a 33% chance for us to get -4 temp stability and fall apart immediately. Please don't do this
Paths of Civilization
- Thread starter Academia Nut
- Start date
- Original
@Academia Nut
What is our current heir situation? Is he fully prepared to take the job should we sacrifice our king? Are his stats all average and if not, what are they?
Assuming the questions above are answered and our heir is all set up and ready to take over, I'll try to push
[][Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[][Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
What does this do over the current plan?
Traits:
We are a sacrificing people. We work for the betterment of all who join our society, but not those who are outside of it- for our ways are better, and you should join us.
As such, we sacrifice everything including our king, in order to accommodate the maximum number of those seeking our aid as we possibly can. The ??? under [Refugee] I suspect will cause our LoO to evolve further, as our people become more willing than ever to accept everyone who is willing to do the same sacrifices that they do. The ???s under [Sacrifice] and [King] combine with the previous to possibly eliminate entirely the option of not accepting refugees and causing us to sacrifice more of ourselves if we need to to accommodate those who need our aid if they are willing to listen to our rules and do as we do.
This is the culmination of all the giving we did in those early turns. We give and we give to all who come to us, but for those who do not come, we simply ignore. They chose their path.
Math:
1) From the old +1 to +2 econ, this plan gives us +2 to +4 econ.
2) Goes from a ~3%* chance of societal collapse to 0%.
3) Same average stability at turn's end. (-1.7)
4) edit: +1 Legitimacy is useful in the medium-term since it raises our Stability cap and is overall a very nice stat to have.
*Value calculated via the program's default values of 25% increments and the admin roll is 50% chance of random order, 50% optimal order. If the admin roll is pure random, it goes up to a 6% chance of failure.
edit: Alternatively, if we're feeling risky, we can take Restoration of Harmony for a ~5% chance of failure in exchange for a -1.1 average stability. Probably not worth the risk though
What is our current heir situation? Is he fully prepared to take the job should we sacrifice our king? Are his stats all average and if not, what are they?
Assuming the questions above are answered and our heir is all set up and ready to take over, I'll try to push
[][Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[][Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
What does this do over the current plan?
Traits:
We are a sacrificing people. We work for the betterment of all who join our society, but not those who are outside of it- for our ways are better, and you should join us.
As such, we sacrifice everything including our king, in order to accommodate the maximum number of those seeking our aid as we possibly can. The ??? under [Refugee] I suspect will cause our LoO to evolve further, as our people become more willing than ever to accept everyone who is willing to do the same sacrifices that they do. The ???s under [Sacrifice] and [King] combine with the previous to possibly eliminate entirely the option of not accepting refugees and causing us to sacrifice more of ourselves if we need to to accommodate those who need our aid if they are willing to listen to our rules and do as we do.
This is the culmination of all the giving we did in those early turns. We give and we give to all who come to us, but for those who do not come, we simply ignore. They chose their path.
Math:
1) From the old +1 to +2 econ, this plan gives us +2 to +4 econ.
2) Goes from a ~3%* chance of societal collapse to 0%.
3) Same average stability at turn's end. (-1.7)
4) edit: +1 Legitimacy is useful in the medium-term since it raises our Stability cap and is overall a very nice stat to have.
*Value calculated via the program's default values of 25% increments and the admin roll is 50% chance of random order, 50% optimal order. If the admin roll is pure random, it goes up to a 6% chance of failure.
edit: Alternatively, if we're feeling risky, we can take Restoration of Harmony for a ~5% chance of failure in exchange for a -1.1 average stability. Probably not worth the risk though
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[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
I'm choosing this, but the perfectly safe option with my plan is the -3 stability Many may enter. That literally cannot fracture our civilization even if literally every other roll goes against us. So why am I choosing this? I figure that the gains are worth the cost, both mechanically and in terms of Civ traits, and more importantly, this one amuses me. After all, the (Offer) option is above this one. This one is that all must receive aid. To me, it seems like we would literally be kidnapping people to give them aid, like we did with the colonists from the Lowlanders long ago. Literally mugging people with Charity, which is a hilarious thought
@Academia Nut Am I right with my interpretation of what that entails?
Ultimately, with my plan we will gain anywhere from 2-7 Stability before refugees, and I'm not even going to argue over what to do with them.
+2-7 Stability
+1 Legitimacy
-1 Diplomacy
-4 Econ +2-4 Econ
Even if we take the super safe option of Many, we still end up with +2 to +4 Econ after refugees and a shiny new trait or evolution. With the risky option, we end up with +7 to +11 Econ And the surplus of Econ will nearly guaruntee that the sub-chiefs will build more settlements to shelter all of them.
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
-1+1+0-1+1+1=+1
-1+1+1-1+1+1=+2
-1+1+0-0+1+1=+2
-1+1+1-0+1+1=+3
-1+1+0+1+1+1=+3
-1+1+1+1+1+1=+4
-1+1+0+2+1+1=+4
-1+1+1+2+1+1=+5
-1+1+1-1+1+1=+2
-1+1+0-0+1+1=+2
-1+1+1-0+1+1=+3
-1+1+0+1+1+1=+3
-1+1+1+1+1+1=+4
-1+1+0+2+1+1=+4
-1+1+1+2+1+1=+5
I'm choosing this, but the perfectly safe option with my plan is the -3 stability Many may enter. That literally cannot fracture our civilization even if literally every other roll goes against us. So why am I choosing this? I figure that the gains are worth the cost, both mechanically and in terms of Civ traits, and more importantly, this one amuses me. After all, the (Offer) option is above this one. This one is that all must receive aid. To me, it seems like we would literally be kidnapping people to give them aid, like we did with the colonists from the Lowlanders long ago. Literally mugging people with Charity, which is a hilarious thought
@Academia Nut Am I right with my interpretation of what that entails?Ultimately, with my plan we will gain anywhere from 2-7 Stability before refugees, and I'm not even going to argue over what to do with them.
+2-7 Stability
+1 Legitimacy
-1 Diplomacy
Even if we take the super safe option of Many, we still end up with +2 to +4 Econ after refugees and a shiny new trait or evolution. With the risky option, we end up with +7 to +11 Econ
And the surplus of Econ will nearly guaruntee that the sub-chiefs will build more settlements to shelter all of them.
- Location
- Panama City
Dude, if we blow the admin roll and get hit with a -6 stab before bonuses(which only requires refugees and one other negative stability) we're buttfucked.[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)-1+1+0-1+1+1=+1
-1+1+1-1+1+1=+2
-1+1+0-0+1+1=+2
-1+1+1-0+1+1=+3
-1+1+0+1+1+1=+3
-1+1+1+1+1+1=+4
-1+1+0+2+1+1=+4
-1+1+1+2+1+1=+5
I'm choosing this, but the perfectly safe option with my plan is the -3 stability Many may enter. That literally cannot fracture our civilization even if literally every other roll goes against us. So why am I choosing this? I figure that the gains are worth the cost, both mechanically and in terms of Civ traits, and more importantly, this one amuses me. After all, the (Offer) option is above this one. This one is that all must receive aid. To me, it seems like we would literally be kidnapping people to give them aid, like we did with the colonists from the Lowlanders long ago. Literally mugging people with Charity, which is a hilarious thought
Ultimately, with my plan we will gain anywhere from 2-7 Stability before refugees, and I'm not even going to argue over what to do with them.
+2-7 Stability
+1 Legitimacy
-1 Diplomacy
-4 Econ+2-4 Econ
Even if we take the super safe option of Many, we still end up with +2 to +4 Econ after refugees and a shiny new trait or evolution. With the risky option, we end up with +7 to +11 Econ
Large enough cow-to-human ratio.
If you use our method of focused breeding and slaughter, you can reduce the impossibly high cow ratio by focused transmission of cowpox.
Otherwise you're flat out not going to be able to innoculate more than a few people reliably.
Please read the project updates.
Metal tools are available to the Nomads and the Highland Kingdom in small quantities, but none of them have enough to trade usable quantities to us until we found our own sea route.
And most cultures do not have a hygiene taboo either, so the problem of creating a small injury and infecting it with JUST cowpox, is going to run into poor washing practices. Cultures WITH a hygiene taboo will fervently refuse to touch an infected animal, much less get cursed on purpose from the animal.
Remember again, cultural and language barriers. We can't tell them straight how to do it, we're using imprecise pidgin languages, pantomime and demonstrations to convey the idea, so those of them who learn the right things and those of them who learn the completely wrong thing from the passing is going to be a thing.
The information to be conveyed is complex as well, since identifying diseased cows, transmitting disease to young cows, not trying to pass disease to a cow that's already immune and controlling your breeding cow population so they don't get infected by other diseases is a major challenge when you're working with trade tongue used to demonstrate why your product is awesome and why they should pay you a lot for it.
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Oh, right we're at -1 stability.
Did you actually read what I wrote there? I purposely set off the Refugee vote because I know some people won't like taking the risk (Even if I consider that incredibly foolish considering that it was risk-aversion over many turns that doomed the ST), and the Many option has literally zero chance of going into -3 Stability at any point because two of our Stability gains are immediate. And AN has already stated that in order to get better traits and such, we need to take risks and do things that may seem less than perfectly optimal.
- Location
- Panama City
I'm not understanding what the heck you mean by this. Clarify?
I'm dead set on the first four of my otions, these:
But not on the Refugee option. If we do decide to go for absolute safety, the Many May Enter option is the best since we literally cannot break thanks to two of our Stab gains being immediate, meaning that they will happen before anything else. Personally, I want to go for the gold and take the riskiest option, but I'm not sure how much support I can rally for that.
- Location
- Panama City
You're going to find little support for your plan as is, since giving away the one advantage we have at the moment(protection against the smallpox plague buttfucking the lowlands right now) is very unpopular right now. And many people don't want to sac the king in case that becomes a regular thing, so that's likely not happening either.
You're taking Restoration of Harmony. Given horrible admin rolls, you go from -1 to 1 (immediate) to -3 (refugees) to -4 (Restoration of Harmony initialization). Under my program's assumptions, you have a ~5% chance of death.
If you don't take Restoration of Harmony then you're at 0%.
...Why are you dead set on restore harmony?
Which...translates to taking both the immediately optimal options which reinforce bad behaviors, and take the risk which doesn't challenge problematic social values how?
As long as we tie that with a refugees of at minimum Many, I'm pretty sure it won't become regular. Only in exceptional circumstances would we our people even consider it, though there is a tiny chance of it becoming the standard way for our chiefs to get an honorable death once they feel that their job is complete. (As opposed to our current "work yourself to death" system)
(I still don't want to do it until we get confirmation that our heir is fully prepared to take over the job with a smooth transfer of power, however)
Btw, a slightly updated version of the program that reports all the probabilities for the different stability values at the end. Instructions still here.
Code:
import random
import collections
def roll(c): return random.random()<c
smallChance = 0.25
chance = 0.5
significantChance = 0.75
adminFail = 0.5
actionOrderBase = ['SacrificeLarge', 'KingStay', 'HarmonyNo', 'WardKeep', 'RefugeeFriendly']
#note that this is the order it will be done if admin roll passes
#if admin roll fails, will be performed randomly
Actions = {
'SacrificeSmall' : lambda x: x-1 if(roll(chance)) else x,
'SacrificeMedium' : lambda x: x,
'SacrificeLarge' : lambda x: x+1,
'SacrificeEverything' : lambda x: x+1 if(roll(chance)) else x,
'HarmonyNo' : lambda x: x,
'HarmonyYes' : lambda x: -4 if(x==-3) else x+random.randint(-1,2),
'WardKeep' : lambda x: x-1 if(roll(smallChance)) else x,
'WardFriendly' : lambda x: x,
'WardNeutral' : lambda x: x+1 if(roll(chance)) else x,
'WardEvil' : lambda x: x+1,
'KingStay' : lambda x: x+1 if(roll(chance)) else x,
'KingHorse' : lambda x: x,
'KingDies' : lambda x: x,
'RefugeeNone' : lambda x: x-2 if(roll(chance)) else x-1,
'RefugeeSome' : lambda x: x-1 if(roll(significantChance)) else x,
'RefugeeTies' : lambda x: x-2 if(roll(smallChance)) else x-1,
'RefugeeFriendly' : lambda x: x-2,
'RefugeeMany' : lambda x: x-3,
'RefugeeAid' : lambda x: x-4,
'RefugeeAll' : lambda x: x-5,
'RefugeeIllegal' : lambda x: x-6,
'RefugeeIllegal2' : lambda x: x-7,
'RefugeeIllegal3' : lambda x: x-8,
}
startingStability = -1
if 'SacrificeEverything' in actionOrderBase: startingStability += 1
if 'KingDies' in actionOrderBase: startingStability += 1
stabilityVals = collections.Counter()
n = 200000
print actionOrderBase
deaths = 0
stabilitySum = 0
for i in range(n):
stability = startingStability
actionOrder = list(actionOrderBase)
dead = False
if (roll(adminFail)): random.shuffle(actionOrder)
k = 0
for fn in actionOrder:
k += 1
stability = Actions[fn](stability)
if (stability < -3):
dead = True
break
if (dead):
deaths += 1
continue
stabilitySum += stability
stabilityVals[stability] += 1
print str(deaths*100./n)+"% chance of death"
print str(stabilitySum/float(n-deaths))+" average stability at end (excluding deaths)"
print "stability probabilities"
for k, v in sorted(stabilityVals.iteritems()):
print format(k, '2d')+":"+str(v*100./n)+"%"
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Maragas
Nothing to see here.
- Location
- Tree House
[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
- Location
- Panama City
Thanks!
So, from the current options that are winning, we have a ~3% chance of dying, a ~10% chance of final stability of -3, ~49% chance of -2 stability, and ~38% chance of -1 stability.
If we go sac everything, we have no chance of dying, ~6% chance of stab -3, ~31% chance of stab -2, ~44% chance of stab -1, and ~19% chance of stab 0.
- Location
- Panama City
Your plan has worse stability averages and is even more conservative than the winning plan right now, for less gain. This isn't a good idea.
Just don't forget that we don't have the mechanics on how the admin roll works. If you want to see what I consider the worst case for a leader with average admin (pure random) then increase "adminFail" to 1. That shouldn't change the final probabilities unless it starts increasing death% though (in which case it actually raises the average stability by killing off the near-dead cases)
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- Location
- Panama City
Ooph, in that case CTD doubles, though in the sac everything case nothing happens(which is why you probably support it).
Yeah, in this instance, the knee-jerk reaction of "Sac Everything" in the early voting is the correct one, since it has the best outcome in a lot of cases(besides traits of course)
Actually, if this does give us an option to trade econ for stab, this might synergize with LoO to a ridiculous degree.
The problem with that is that the smallpox plague is going to stop being a plague very quickly anyway. We don't have the forces to attack this turn, and by next turn it's going to be back down to normal levels again and they're going to be rebuilding. Smallpox in a community with any sort of resistance is horrifying, but not an existential danger. And once it has passed, it's over and the community resistance will be back up. The only reason it was so very deadly to the Indians is that they had no immunity to it whatsoever. Our area has been dealing with it for a long time though so every community should have some basic resistance.
I'm less than worried about the king thing. We don't have room for any more traits, and having self-sacrificial leaders isn't actually a bad thing. For one, it makes being the leader much less attractive to the selfish, since they will know that they have that sort of expectation. Second, it would let us swap out unfitting rulers in times of crisis, which is something we actually want. Think about it: If we have a leader with poor martial and someone attacks us, we take a hit, then send him to the spirits and get a leader with better martial. Basically, it would make us more able to deal with sudden crises if it even became a part of our culture.
Edit: Besides, our current leader is at the end of his life anyway. He was predicted to have a two turn lifespan and now he's on his third.
(does the math)
I actually forgot about that. Still, I think that that's a small enough risk to take.
We're going to have to do it anyway. Seriously, we simply can't afford the time investment to try to build our stability through just roads and festivals right now. We have for too many other things we need to do.
They're really not bad behaviors? Sacrifice is how our willingness to put the group above the individual manifests, and I detailed why I wouldn't be upset in even the worst case scenario for Talk to the Spirits above. And the risk definitely reinforces one of our best traits, possibly allowing us to diplo-annex stuff outside of a crisis. (It seems like we won't take no for an answer if we go with the final Refugee option)
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Erm, do they even know we have this? They tend to like to pretend the trade mission action doesn't exist as far as I can tell.
Well, yes, except how it works is we get a -1 stab hit at the beginning and then roll to improve from there. It is specifically more risk prone than any other stability loss/build up option, but with higher payout. We just really can't afford a stability loss here, even temporarily, as we're flirting rather hard with a complete shattering of our civilization.
Tis a good point...
I really wish more people would pay attention to it.
Romv
A Memory of TREES
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[X][Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[X][Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
- Location
- Sweden
If i remember correctly we got prestige for it and traded with HK after getting it. Trade has by this time almost run dry, but word has probably gotten out by now. Even a rumor of a cure existing might drive a desperate leader to action.
We have to at some point. Seriously, this is the sort of situation that Restore was made for, and it's reasonably safe since the only way for it to go wrong is for every single roll to be a crit fail. And at the point that the dice hate us that much, we're doomed anyway. Mostly because we might not have a lot of time to deal with the fallout from this decision. Remember, our knee-jerk reaction in a crisis is to nom our neighbors for Economy by spending Stability. Well, the DP have the same reaction, except they spend Martial. And now? There's much less between us and them than there used to be.
Off to bed for me.
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