Okay, since a quick skim of the thread is all off the cuff panic votes. analysis:
Diplomacy 7->5(+2?)
Redshore sent one trade mission into the wilds, our King sent another. It's unknown whether they're successful.
Economy 2(+2)->4
Cashed out Economy. We can spend 4 at once at low risks.
Stability 0->-1
This looks like we failed the Mysticism roll to avert Cometary doom.
Twythulmyn had had many things planned. He had been ordering the expansion of the warriors and militia, left ill at ease by the territorial expansions of southern neighbours, he had sent out a mission to the Thunder Horse to see how they were doing and if they needed support, while also trying to make sure that connections of trade and friendship were further developed. He had been frustrated by the news that a group of boats had gone scouting to the south of Redcoast and disappeared, even as the pastures in the northern hills were expanded.
Stonepen - Expand Economy(Pastures)
Redcoast - Trade Mission(Into the Wilds) - Result unknown until next turn.
Sacred Forest - Expand Economy or Study <Something>(?)
Valleyhome - Study <Something> - No result
Reminder that we have 9 Economic expansion slots left now
He had been listening to the happenings in the south with some interest and anxiety, as the Highlanders and Dead Priests seemed to settle into a period of quiet consolidation, letting their subject villages squabble on their behalf while they turned inward. He had especially wondered what the Dead Priests might be up to, with word of increased trade flowing out of their city, and of changes as to how they were dealing with their slaves, but as it was all coming third or fourth hand it was hard to be sure what might be happening.
Dead Priests and Highlanders are taking actions to boost Centralization, Diplomacy and Legitimacy while they have a cooling off period.
Not good for us of course, but we also see that provinces can take War Missions on their own.
Traders had also brought news of the chief who had caused all the trouble among the Metal Workers also somehow succeeding in his ambitions and unifying his people and Twythulmyn had wondered at sending another expedition their way to congratulate the man, solidify ties, and possibly also learn more about the stones that were mysteriously made into metal.
Hi, Metal King guy, how are your four daugthers now? Satisfied?
If we don't do the Study Rocks as main, we probably should send them a secondary trade mission.
He had so many plans, and then a stranger appeared in the sky. He had been a boy when the comet had appeared in the sky and Bynwyn had calmed the populace, had told them not to be afraid, and had more or less countered the magic of the Spirit Talkers. The thing was though that you kind of had to look for that comet, which while unsettling when you found something strange in the sky it wasn't immediate and obvious that it was there.
Not this monster. Brighter than the Morning Star and with tails that trailed across the sky, it had slowly drifted across the sky for two seasons now and seemed to be getting brighter and brighter with each passing night. Utter terror gripped the People, and while there were many shamans these days, there were fewer who studied the celestial spirits than ever and they had no answers as to what to do to appease this monster in the sky. Unseasonal storms of shooting stars blazed across the sky, as if the stars themselves were at war and were firing their bows of fire and thunder for or against this intruder.
In the coming days, it may be known as the King-killer.
And we can see here the consequences of Mysticism 0, we have shamans, but no idle ones to study abstract concerns.
And then, as above so below, during the summer months there was a mass outbreak of the scourging disease among the lowlands, cutting down thousands and turning the entire region into a frothing frenzy as villages turned upon each other, both out of fear that they might be harbouring the 'Star Pox' and in an attempt to satiate the panicked desire for blood of the Dead Priests.
Trade to the south ground to a halt and the northern plains were equally thrown into madness from the fear gripping the nomads there. Only the sea routes to the west and the land routes to the east remained relatively clear, and many sailors and traders refused to head out under the baleful influence of the serpent in the sky.
This is kind of good for us. We weather the crisis just fine...if we don't panic anyway.
Of those theories that were being floated that the People were able to do anything about, the dominant ones were that the People had somehow angered the spirits with their warding magic against the scourging plague, and that the Thunder Horse had somehow intruded upon matters they did not understand with their star axe and settling in the valley where the Spirit Talkers once lived.
Panic ensues
So the people seize upon every possible offensive action, though personally I'd peg it on the STs curse if I were them.
Of the first, while there were some who called that the warding magic itself had angered the spirits and they were sending an emissary to correct the imbalance
Honorable Death triggered.
many others felt that the issue was simply that they had horded magic that could save lives and thus they were being informed that if they had such miracles they had to share the magic with others.
Land of Opportunity triggered
For the second, there was less that could be done there, although the trade mission to the Thunder Horse were being sent runners to try to get more information out of them, and Twythulmyn was tempted to join them in an attempt to get more information and potentially get the Thunder Horse to act on whatever might be going on.
This gives us a chance to affect the outwards ones.
Although, grimacing, there was also an idea he had and had quietly run past the Chief Shaman to see if it was viable - it technically was, but he hadn't voiced it to anyone else yet - and that was to attempt to leverage his charm and diplomacy directly. He had never considered himself particularly selfless - he had technically got the position of king by being the opposite -, but for his family, for his People... if the shamans and other chiefs thought it might work, he would offer up his life. The only method the Chief Shaman thought might work though was immolation and incineration, so that when his spirit detached from his body it would be carried quickly up to the sky where he might entreat with the comet and other celestial spirits and beg that they be merciful to the people. Beyond that, the People were going to be making a mass sacrifice to their ancestral spirits in an attempt to gain their protection.
And the tradition of kingly sacrifice potentially emerges, bringing him to myth.
Size of Sacrifice to Spirits (Task [Sacrifice])
[] Small (-1 Econ, chance of stability loss, ???)
[] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
Sliding scale here. We probably want to avoid the Small sacrifice due to the chances of stability hits at a time we're taking lots of them.
The bigger the sacrifice, the higher the probability that we'd get a trait demanding sacrificing economy when Stability is low...which means a recursive Stability-destruct loop at low Economy like the Lowlanders faced with Pioneering Spirit.
Emergency Restore Harmony? (Task [Harmony])
[] No, they could cause further panic
[] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
This is almost certainly a Secondary restore harmony.
As our leader has average Administration and we don't get a reroll, it's likely to give us a governmental crisis from hitting Stability -2 or -3 temporarily.
Share the scourge warding magic? (Task [Ward])
[] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
I have no idea why we'd share with the DPs, but it should be noted that the more we share to, the more likely they are to get it via trade.
Where should Twythulmyn go? (Task [King])
[] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
Conservative option. Hurts us the least, just try to smooth things out.
[] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
This takes advantage of the opportunity to manipulate the Thunder Horse. Good choice if otherwise conservative, bad choice otherwise as it won't help Stability
[] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
This is almost certainly going to evolve Honorable Death + Humility to Self Sacrifice.
Which means when faced with Stability crisis, we can sacrifice the King for an immediate +Stability bonus, in exchange for losing a King who actually knows what to do.
Awesome for the immediate turn. Awful in the long run.
The last thing you want to do in a crisis is to kill off the experienced guy overseeing it!
With disease and comets, everyone has lost their mind and thousands are running scared (Task [Refugee])
[] Close the borders (-1 Stability, chance of further stability loss)
[] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
[] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
Overall, the fourth one seems the most advantageous to me. We'd temporarily drop to -3 if we lack an Immediate boost however, and that'd be nasty.
The first and third are the worst ones after the obviously crazy "take everyone" options, as they take a stability hit AND have a risk of taking a further hit to no gain.
However we don't breakup at -3. We lose the option to take Restore Harmony at -3, so if this is the only Stability loss we take and we add a few stability gains to pull back out, this can be done safely.
We'd still take the stability crisis point though.
As such I can see a few plans:
[] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[] [Refugee] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
This is the conservative route in the long run, maintaining our advantages without building negative traits. However, it has the least immediate gains. We'd potentially drop to Stability -2, but we'd be in a solid position to take Festivals and Main Restore Order next turn to get out of the hole.
This basically means we play the game where we emerge from the crisis in a better situation than anyone else, and can go expansionist over the next 3 turns while their butts are all on fire
[] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[] [Refugee]Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
This basically goes with preserving our Economy margin, at worst it'd just break even there, but with a risk of negative traits from sacrificing everything.
Personally I'd go with:
[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
We can afford NOT to take a profit here, and we can recover from losing 1 Stability to refugees. This lets us maintain traits healthy for stability, even if next turn is now going to be the Restore Stability turn.