[X] [Sacrifice] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[X][Ward] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Sacrifice] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
Adhoc vote count started by Spacegnom on Apr 14, 2017 at 7:52 PM, finished with 113 posts and 34 votes.
[x] [Harmony]Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
Plan Gotta Burn It All But Remain Paranoid
[X] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[X] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
Modifying my vote. This will leave us at 2 econ, but will be better for our stability. I'm not convinced that having our hero die will give us a human sacrifice trait.
[X] [Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[X] [Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
Every action marked Immediate Stability occurs first, no questions asked. Every action marked otherwise rolls for it's turn order.
The following vote:
[] [Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[] [Harmony]Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[] [Ward]] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
will go as follows:
START: -1 Stability Current>Gain +2 Stability (becomes 1)>ROLL HARMONY, WARD, SACRIFICE, OR REFUGEE FIRST
Refugee First>Stability reduced to -3>Harmony Triggers, we lose 1 stability to initiate the roll and collapse.
Refugee First>Stability reduced to -3>Ward triggers/Sacrifice Triggers>Chance of collapse on Harmony Trigger
Ward First>Safe
Sacrifice First>Safe
Harmony First>Safe
FOURTEEN PERCENT OF THE TIME, THIS VOTE WILL KILL US IMMEDIATELY. Approximately one in seven.
Alright you dunderheads. Just mathing this isn't something we can do. As @Powerofmind has been saying, we have to look at the possible trait gains, and long term consequences of each choice.
Size of Sacrifice to Spirits
[] Small (-1 Econ, chance of stability loss, ???)
[] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
We already perform sacrifices, however, we don't do human sacrifice. Any choice here is unlikely to leave us with major negative traits. More importantly, we need the +1 stability. More than we even need the econ. This is because the next few choices hinge on that stability. However, sacrificing everything is just a recipe to compound our issues. All in or bust just doesn't work here, and just ignores the issues in favor of dogpiling on what looks juicy. The large choice here is prudent. It nets us a guaranteed stability, leaves us with 1 econ and possible ulterior effects.
Emergency Restore Harmony?
[] No, they could cause further panic
[] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
This is simply risky. Either way. Its essentially a 50% chance for a null to negative gain. By that same token, it is also a 75% chance for null to positive gain. I see no reason not to choose it.
Share the scourge warding magic?
[] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
[] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
Do you guys want to fight the Dead Priests? If no, then pick NO. Its that fucking simple. This is our best advantage against our neighbors, and nothing else comes as close to knocking them down a peg or three.
Where should Twythulmyn go?
[] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
[] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
This is an interesting choice here. The final one is almost guaranteed to give us a human sacrifice trait. I can't say I really want one. I don't really like the other civs that do have one, nor does any other civ in the game. They fear them. The immediate stability gain is nice, and we could use it, but I don't want to gain it in this manner. The Legitimacy is also nice, but we actually don't need that at all.
The talk with the Thunderhorse is a decent option. It should help calm tensions outside our borders. That's cool, but frankly do we really care about anyone outside our borders unless we're taking them in? I don't think we do. Humanitarian efforts are nice, but we have a lot going on internally that we need to worry about, and having our chief take a year to travel through unstable lands to an unstable people is a terrible idea. There's also no stability gain possible.
That leaves our the Remain Home option. If you were one of The People would you want your leader our gallivanting when the goddamn sky is falling?
With disease and comets, everyone has lost their mind and thousands are running scared
[] Close the borders (-1 Stability, chance of further stability loss)
[] Only let in some (Significant chance of stability loss)
[] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
This is a little difficult. We straight up can't take everyone in, or we will have overcrowding issues and probably huge stability problems. Based on the above choices, if taken along the guidelines I've proposed we should have 1 stability. This is just based on odds of getting extra stability from any of the options and averaging it out. So, we can safely take the (-2 +4-5 Econ choice). Not only does this not carry the risk of secondary effects or overcrowding, but it leaves us in a good place economically and stability wise to take advantage of the chaos next turn.
[X][Sacrifice] Large(-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
[X][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[X][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
If you guys want math, this is:
+1 stab
+.75 Stab (averaged)
-.25 Stab (Just guessing the probability)
+.5 Stab (Once again guessing the probability)
-2 Stab
= -1
By this math we are left at -1. This is averaged and is what we are most likely to get. Seeing as the math doesnt work like this exactly, here are best and worst case scenarios.
_____________________
Best case leaves us at 1 Stability.
+1
+2
-0
+1
-2
= +1
Worst case:
+1
-1
-1
-2
=-4
Yeah that sucks but its unlikely and there's no lingering issues.
Here's the best and worst case for all in option:
Best:
+2
+2
+1
-5
=0
Congrats. You did a bunch of stuff, and we have a lot of econ and now every single one of our enemies are cured of disease. We also have overcrowding issues and a bunch of fun new traits causing cultural dissonance We aren't really any better off. Please stop voting for this plan.
Worst
+1
-1
+1
+1
-5
=-3
Congrats. We have overcrowding issues, cultural dissonance, and every single one of our enemies are cured of disease. Thats OK, we're unstable. Lets just push the damn button.
To minimize chances of stability issues, the best options to pick in replacement are the -2 stability [Refugee] option, and the -4 econ [Sacrifice] Either of these I would be happy to vote for. They are otherwise minimal impact in the long run.
Vote Tally : Paths of Civilization | Page 667 | Sufficient Velocity ##### NetTally 1.7.4 Task: Harmony
[14][Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[7][Harmony] No, they could cause further panic
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: King
[11][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
[9][King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[2][King] Talk with the Thunder Horse (Applies Heroic diplomacy to interactions over the crisis)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Refugee
[7][Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
[6][Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[4][Refugee] Some from friendly groups can come in (-2 Stability, +4-5 Econ)
[3][Refugee] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
[1][Refugee] All who need aid must receive it (-5 Stability, +11-15 Econ, overcrowding issues, ???)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Sacrifice
[12][Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[5][Sacrifice] Medium (-2 Econ, ???)
[4][Sacrifice] Large (-3 Econ, +1 Stability, ???)
——————————————————————————————————————————————Task: Ward
[8][Ward] ] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[8][Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[4][Ward] Everyone, even the Dead Priests! (Shares far and wide for -1 Diplomacy, +1 Stability, ???)
[2][Ward] It should be shared with friendly tribes (Shares with a few groups)
Total No. of Voters: 22
[X] [Sacrifice] Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[X] [Harmony] Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] Those with preexisting ties can come in (-1 Stability, +2 Econ, small chance of further stability loss)
Modifying my vote. This will leave us at 2 econ, but will be better for our stability. I'm not convinced that having our hero die will give us a human sacrifice trait.
If the people hear "The Shamans sacrificed the king to save us all" and then the disaster stops, as disasters do, they'll think it worked. These are peasant farmers, they aren't putting a whole lot of thought into the temporary nature of disasters
Every action marked Immediate Stability occurs first, no questions asked. Every action marked otherwise rolls for it's turn order.
The following vote:
[] [Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[] [Harmony]Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[] [Ward]] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[] The People must offer aid (-4 Stability, +8-11 Econ, probable overcrowding issues, ???)
will go as follows:
START: -1 Stability Current>Gain +2 Stability (becomes 1)>ROLL HARMONY, WARD, SACRIFICE, OR REFUGEE FIRST
Refugee First>Stability reduced to -3>Harmony Triggers, we lose 1 stability to initiate the roll and collapse.
Refugee First>Stability reduced to -3>Ward triggers/Sacrifice Triggers>Chance of collapse on Harmony Trigger
Ward First>Safe
Sacrifice First>Safe
Harmony First>Safe
FOURTEEN PERCENT OF THE TIME, THIS VOTE WILL KILL US IMMEDIATELY. Approximately one in seven.
The issue isn't so much ending up like the dead priests and more that this potentially sets a precident for killing leaders when things go wrong which is not a good precident to have as it results in people going, "Oh, the harvest didn't go so well. We better execute the king to appease the spirits!".
No, they suggested it. He would be willing. This is still a sacrifice. No way to spin that. It gets lodged in the peoples' consciousness and stays there, 'it' being "sacrifice is an OK thing to do".
The issue isn't so much ending up like the dead priests and more that this potentially sets a precident for killing leaders when things go wrong which is not a good precident to have as it results in people going, "Oh, the harvest didn't go so well. We better execute the king to appease the spirits!".
There is a giant star in the sky, and people are dying left right and center just about everywhere. It'll take a bit more than a bad harvest for people to start eyeing each other up for "voluntary" sacrifices.
There is no point. You're like a GOP congressman in the US. Flipflopping your opinions from issue to issue. Back when we first took in the nomads you were all for conservative play.
Except people aren't factoring in our civ's culture. Our hero killing himself specifically to talk to the spirits is a trigger for harmony, honorable death, and possibly protective justice. This will make him a martyr...not make everyone suddenly bloodthirsty and start killing leaders every time a drought happens.
[x] [Sacrifice]Everything! (-4 Econ, +1 immediate stability, chance of extra stability, ???)
[x] [Harmony]Yes, the people need to be further calmed (-1 to +2 Stability)
[x] [Ward] Even less friendly groups should know of the magic (Shares with many groups, chance of stability gain, ???)
[X] [King] Speak with spirits (Twythulmyn dies, +1 immediate stability, +1 Legitimacy, ???)
[X] [Refugee] Many may enter (-3 Stability, +6-8 Econ, ???)
[X] [Ward] No, it is sacred magic (Small chance of stability loss)
Everything else can change, but I am firmly against sharing our megaproject.
[X][King] Remain home (Chance of stability gain)
I can see him staying home or going to the Thunder Horse, but strategic voting bade me for this one to avoid killing him off. We don't need the things it would give us, especially if we go all in on sacrifice anyway.
Except people aren't factoring in our civ's culture. Our hero killing himself specifically to talk to the spirits is a trigger for harmony, honorable death, and possibly protective justice. This will make him a martyr...not make everyone suddenly bloodthirsty and start killing leaders every time a drought happens.
