BoSPaladin
The Paladin
Plasma first imo. See if we can set up a plasma mastadon later.
Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition
- Location
- Outside the Box
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Seriously, though: Between the Tib dice from most of the quest and the recent few turn's low-average streak, are we really that sure that SV's dice roller isn't somehow being weighted by Ithillid's system, account, or post formatting? Are we just being paranoid, or...? (Probably still just random chance being weird as usual.)
aledeth
The Flesh is Weak
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Almost every quest I've been part of on SV has had people complain about SV's dice roller being off.
As I understand it whichever one is built first doesn't matter. The one that gets the bonus has the larger progress bar because its breaking new ground while the other one is just duplicating the work so its a little easier. The last write up even mentioned that maybe it would be safer to put the new stuff away from South Africa for Nod concerns.
I'd do 5 or 6 on ICS. Fortress Towns would push against our shell supply again, and I'd like to get a few turns of just building up supply, especially since we probably will be doing other projects than the other 2 Shell Factory phases. And it won't be all that bad if it doesn't finish, just inconvenient.
3 on BZHIS, so we can do military Factory Refits. And that lets us do 1 die to finish the Fusion plants.
4 dice on T-Glass is a good idea, because that stuff is going to be in huge demand.
We'll want to do 2 dice on Perennials, to have a decent chance of finishing it without going overboard. And we'll probably want to do something with the kudzu.
Tiberium... we'll see. I'm hoping for good results from the offshore stations (by which I mean more phases but with no PS cost), but that's up in the air.
4 dice on Philly, and the other can be up in the air. I'd like to check out the novel material, but would not be opposed to diving into Enterprise. (I don't want to work on Colombia next turn, because I don't want to do it without having done the Political Promises project, so we get something back out of it.)
1 die to finish up AI development, with the rest of Services up to what's available.
Military will probably eat a lot of Free dice, because of finishing the Savannah fleet, Auroras, and probably Orcas, too. And maybe another consumables phase.
- Location
- Outside the Box
- Pronouns
- She/Her
- Location
- USA
Random dice roller is probably working just fine- a truely random dice roller does end up with streaks like this, if it never happened then I would be more worried about the SV dice roller.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Welp!
First chance I've had to post my reactions to the rolls. This isn't actually so bad! Now, you may say, "Simon, Simon, how can you say this," and here's my reply.
Consider:
(EDIT: Almost) Every single project I was planning on finishing, finished.
Yes, seriously.
We've got the Phase 4 shell plants (84% chance), Phase 3 of Reykjavik (73% chance), and importantly, the YZ-6a reclamator hub which had a 6% chance of failing to complete and leaving all that MARV fleet progress with nowhere to go. Failures on any of those projects would have been unpleasant and a fly in the ointment for the whole Plan. And we had several such things that could have gone wrong, so we shouldn't take for granted that none of them would go wrong.
No critical failures.
This is self explanatory. We rolled forty-something dice and none of them came up '1.' It could be worse. Furthermore:
Most of the worst luck was on nonessential projects.
We had 1/300-tier bad luck rolling for progress on Perennials, seriously, there was only a 0.32% chance of an outcome that bad. But we can live without those; nothing we need urgently is impacted, and we have plenty of Agriculture dice left to roll before the end of the Plan to hit our Plan commitments. We also had very bad luck on the T-glass foundries, but desirable as those are, those are something we can grit our teeth and live without for a little longer.
The only really cursed roll that's probably going to impact us going forward is on the ICS, where we rolled 172 on 5d100 instead of the median 252. There was only about an 11% chance of rolling this low on ICS. This puts us well behind schedule, which is bad news, but that is partly counterbalanced by the very good news:
The Philadelphia rolled really well.
To be precise, 555 on 9d100, which we would have expected to roll about 455. This is very, very good. It's exactly what I'd hoped to happen from frontloading dice on the Philadelphia. Better than I'd hoped, even.
There was only about a 1/8 chance of such a good result.
What this means is that Philadelphia Phase 5 is now only about 200 points of Progress from completion. I haven't seen everyone else's calculations, but I think that in 2059Q3 we will roll +18+5 on our station dice. With that +23 bonus in mind...
We could put three dice on the project. Three dice gives us a 76.7% chance of completion.
Four dice? 97.4%.
Five dice? Literally 99.9% chance of success.
We can put zero Free dice on Orbital and have only a one-in-a-thousand chance of failure to complete the Philadelphia next turn. We could still have an overwhelming chance of success and have an Orbital die left over for a project of your choosing (say, studying the Martian transuranic samples).
And in turn, that means we have the Free dice to commit to the ICS. Two Free dice would give us a 82.3% chance. Three would give us a 96.8% chance if we're feeling afraid of the warlord dogpile hitting in 2059Q3 specifically and want to be sure of finishing the project in time.
(EDIT: And OK, yeah, I misread @Lightwhispers , and the Savannah MARV fleet is like 28 points from completion. Big whoop)
...
You know what? I'll take that. I'll fucking well take that.
I think this turn actually went pretty well. Most of the really bad luck hit stuff that could afford to take the hit, and the cursed ICS roll was canceled out by the blessed Philadelphia roll.
Mm... Philadelphia rolls... suuuushi.
Last edited:
- Location
- USA
I admire your optimism.
I would share it but...
Those were some very cursed rolls.
I would share it but...
Those were some very cursed rolls.
trooperist
Cinnamon Roll AI
We've got elections coming up in the fourth quarter. With Philadelphia well on schedule we look set to be able to have the first full Parliament session of 10,000 representatives be able to meet in person tens years after the Third Tiberium War ended. It would be too symbolic not to do it.
Of course, we know how NOD gets about GDI leadership getting together in one place.
Of course, we know how NOD gets about GDI leadership getting together in one place.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
I'll toss an approval vote to otherwise sound plans that put that fifth Orbital die on Columbia in Q3, because I respect the hell out of that project.
But my main plan will be to do the Martian transuranic samples, because I'm curious if that mystery box is eezo after all.
[Fistbumps @Lightwhispers ' snake avatar. Somehow!]
Let's wait on the war factory refits until Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors completes.
We just had a submarine attack on a city containing one of our major second-line Capital Goods facilities (Manchester). And it's plausible that Stahl may have damaged something that cost Capital Goods down in South America. I want to keep a reserve of capacity.
But Reykjavik Phase 3 was the project that specifically had the Capital Goods I was budgeting for the ICS, and that's done. And we can do the Super Orcas project, no problem, which in a way is like doing 1/8 of the war factory refits, so that's something!
I'll be thinking about it, but the good news is that we can totally afford to invest 4-6 Free dice on the military next turn, depending on just how urgent you consider "finish the ICS" to be and how much overexpenditure of dice you're willing to accept to get it done in 2059Q3.
(Personally I'm thinking two Free dice on the ICS and the rest on the military right now, but I might revise that opinion...)
I don't know exactly where Shell Plants Phase 4 puts us, but it's good enough that we should prioritize some of the other areas where we don't have enough enough-ness.
South America. Not where we keep most of our most strategically critical stuff, but there's some MARV hubs and an Apollo factory down there, and of course the usual valuable Blue Zones with millions and millions of innocent people and all.
I mean, "shitty politics" here means something like "bad at Nod politics," because he's not a frothing idiot. If I had to pick a Nod warlord to be conquered by, it'd probably be Stahl, from a perverse point of view.
But yeah, it's awkward and I could wish the win had gone to someone I was more confident of being able to beat up more effectively down the line.
Hmrm. Good point. On the other hand, I might want to play it a bit more conservatively, since even a 7.91% chance of failure is still not good.
Also... I don't know what happens if we do Orca refits and Phase 4 of the war factory refits in the same turn. Since there's some redundant Capital Goods expenditure in there.
@Ithillid , what would be the result of us rolling for the Orca refits and not completing them, and of Phase 4 of the war factory refits and completing them, in the same turn? Would we wind up still having to spend -1 Capital Goods on the Orca refit in the following turn when we finished that project?
Goes with the part where there are tiberium glaciers looming over the place, sadly.
Gideon: "Damn the guided antitank missiles! Full dangerous tiberium vapors ahead!"
Also Gideon: "I REGRET MY LIFE CHOICES!"
Recreation Glider Commercials
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Recreation Glider Commercials
Ninja Sports Test File 01: Extreme Sports Test Copy *Recording starts
Narrator: (in a 1990s excited kids toy commercial voice) Coming next year, the ultimate extreme sport....
CUT TO: Roof of an arcology, where a man wearing a red headband and a sleeveless shirt is wielding a katana sword and running on the roof. He stops at the edge, where we see him being chased by guys in really fake looking plastic NOD costumes. He looks for a way out, he is surrounded. He deploys his NINJA BRAND CIVILIAN GLIDERS and jumps off of the building.
Narrator: For those who just want to rise above the Tiberium and surf the wind, Ninja sports proudly presents the NINJA BRAND CIVILIAN GLIDER!
CUT TO CGI footage of bandanna man surfing around several locations.
CUT TO close up of Bandanna Man actor with broad smile on his face as he glides.
CUT TO Stunt man landing in front of an arcology.
Bandanna man lands next to the arcology, wielding his katana, looking cool.
Narrator: GET YOURS TODAY!!!!!!!
FADE OUT
Ninja Sports Test File 02: Romantic Comedy Test Copy **
FADE IN on an arcology, where a woman in a beautiful dress is leaving her arcology apartment, going down tastefully designed steps, holding a box of Kudzu treats.
Man's voice: My darling Vanessa....
The woman continues walking towards a waste reclamation hatch to dump the kudzu treats.
Man's voice: I'm sorry that I couldn't be there in time for our date.
The woman throws the box of treats into the trash with disgust.
Man's voice: Your arcology suite is just too far from my building and I missed the train.
CUT TO MAN running as the train. leaves the station without him.
CUT TO BANDANNA MAN stopping in front of Vanessa with a box of Kudzu chocolates and wearing NINJA BRAND CIVILIAN GLIDERS, looking COOL and EXTREME!!!!
Vanessa smiles, charmed by the coolness of BANDANNA MAN.
NARRATOR: NINJA GLIDERS, for when you want to make your date ON-TIME. GET YOURS TODAY!!!!
Author's note: I really wanted the Civilian Gliders to be made, and since the POD is the 1990s, extreme sports still very much a cultural memory that might have survived the decades. Only instead of rollerblades, it's now Civilian Gliders that the teenagers use to annoy everyone.
* Based off the 2007 Shadowrun xbox game tech.
** Based off of this silly 1996 commercial
We could use my very special Alpha Legion dice. Maybe we get some better rolls. Totally not rigged for a hidden Malicious Purpose or anything.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Remember, Kane can just show up and say "fuckit, I'm picking this person as my right-hand man, woman, or enby for the next Tiberium War" at any time. Having Stahl look like Nod's rising tactical genius may mean there's some risk of that happening, and we don't want that.
Huh? @Lightwhispers said we got both MARV fleets, didn't we?
Crap, I misread. Going back and editing some of my stuff.
With that said... I think the next hub is in Richmond and provides almost no income. I think that next turn we should 'tap' Savannah with one Military die for completion, or maybe even Bureaucratic Assistance since it's pretty close to being done... And put another die on one of the Middle Eastern MARV hubs.
Then in Q4 we can do a more aggressive push to get one or more of the Middle Eastern MARV fleets done (Tripoli, Istanbul, and Beirut are all in Red Zones, and Djibouti is in a Yellow Zone).
@Ithillid , if we invest two Military dice in different MARV projects, can we invest Tiberium dice in one or the other of them?
It's conceivable, but right now we're actually doing fairly well, taking only relatively minor hits and inconveniences.
The most likely "loss" outcome from just generally below-average dice rolls in this quest would be crit-failing the "convince Kane to cough up the TCN blueprints" check and then chronically underperforming in the "evacuate everyone to space" project, so eventually the Earth blows up from tiberium contamination and we've still got a lot of people on it.
But even then, humanity almost certainly survives, which is better than you can say for some "Earth gets hit by malevolent von Neumann terraforming ultratech" scenarios.
Now, if you want a planquest where the low dice rolls are really fucking everyone over, go check out Rukia's Attempting to Survive the Apocalypse quest...
Speaking as a Columbia advocate, I'd be much happier giving it a big shot of funding in 2059Q4, maybe in 2059Q3 as well, then beelining Enterprise except for maybe 1-2 dice to finish off Columbia Phase 3 after the election.
Because this is not an issue where slow/steady funding is really beneficial compared to just being able to point and say "yeah, we did that, we're coming back to it." The election is politically relevant not just because 'it helps Starbound' but because it's the public's chance to give feedback on how they feel about our actions. Our ultimate bosses are the voters, and this is the kind of thing you do right before a performance review to prove that yes, you give a shit what they think, because it's quite clear that Columbia matters to people besides just the relatively small minority of Starbound voters.
But once you've proven yourself, you go back to doing your job as best you know how in good faith, and frankly that involves trying to get Enterprise done. Trickle-spending on both stations at the same time over a period of several quarters does not appeal to me.
Sacrifice
Sacrifice
Victory requires sacrifice.
The Brotherhood of Nod had always understood that principle of warfare. Sometimes they had taken it too far, glorifying sacrifice for its own sake, sending wave after wave of suicide bombers against a fortified position in a desperate attempt to prove their devotion to their "Prophet". But for all of their madness, there was still something to learn from the enemy.
The Brotherhood's forces lacked the equipment and training of Initiative soldiers. Their soldiers often went into battle without close air support or artillery or even body armor, but they still fought. And they lost, time and time again. Even Krukov, who was the best of the warlords in a conventional battle, had been badly defeated at Saint Petersburg.
Every Tiberium War had ended in a defeat for Nod. Yet they returned after each defeat, driven by their faith in the Prophet and his vision. GDI had not secured a true, lasting victory, and Jawada Okoro had almost started to believe that they never could.
He had been wrong.
"Kane's Peace upon you, brothers and sisters." Fatima was an old woman, but her voice carried clearly through the night. "Be welcome within our walls, guests. Take this bread, in the Name of Kane."
"In the Name of Kane," the soldier said, "I swear to Peace within these walls. May this oath bind us all."
The rest of them repeated the words. Jawada would take their weapons, of course; the truce was sacred, but everyone understood the need for practicality. A handful of the fanatics had managed to smuggle explosives into the shelter only a week ago, hiding their bombs within their own bodies. More than a hundred refugees had died in an instant, but the flow had not stopped. The risk of death from a hidden bomb meant little compared to the slow, certain death that awaited them in the Tiberium fields.
One by one, the soldiers laid down their rifles, moving deliberately under the guns of Jawada's troopers. Zone armor could shrug off small arms fire, and he had chosen his soldiers very carefully. Sheltered children of the Blue Zones, professionals who knew how to obey orders. They were loyal sons and daughters of the Initiative, but the war against Nod was not personal for them.
Fatima embraced each one of them, ignoring the risk of a hidden knife. Her courage would kill her one day, but her death would be another victory for the Initiative. Sister Fatima, holy and blessed, murdered by treachery. A martyr for the cause of peace.
They made their way through the compound gates, drawn by the smell of food. There was a feast waiting for the newcomers, or at least a feast by local standards. They would have work to busy their hands, and in time their guns would be returned to them. Most of the Home Guard were Nod veterans, and it was only a matter of time before the Initiative started letting them into ZOCOM. The thought disgusted Jawanda, but some cold, distant part of him could already see the advantages.
Fatima said, "Blessings upon you, Colonel Okoro." She did not say whose blessings. "All the world sees that Director Litvinov has continued the work of Director Granger. The Initiative holds Power, but they seek Peace."
They had always sought peace. From the very beginning. While Fatima and her fellow cultists were trying to kill the planet, Jawada had been fighting to save the world. Nod propaganda liked to boast of their concern for the downtrodden, holding up examples of their charity even as they gleefully spread the poison that murdered billions.
The worst sins of GDI- and Jawada did not deny that they had sinned- were nothing besides what Nod had done. Hitler and Stalin and Mao together paled in comparison to the "Prophet". He longed to share his thoughts on "Father Kane" with the good Sister, but even if he was not under discipline there would be no purpose. Fatima would merely say that the Prophet was misunderstood, that subordinates had disobeyed his commands. Even here, among those who had turned away from the Brotherhood and made peace with GDI, the name of Kane was sacred.
"Lives beyond counting," she said reverently. "It would have been easy to turn away, Colonel. To abandon your enemies to their fate. But you chose otherwise."
"Yes, Sister." It had not been easy. Jawada could understand the children, and the civilians. The soldiers had been...difficult. Almost impossible. The urge to drive an armored fist through Sister Fatima's kindly old face was almost overwhelming, but he fought it back.
Fatima said, "I will go to eat now, Colonel Okoro. Please tell me if I am needed at the gates." She turned and was gone, leaving Okoro alone by the battered steel doors.
Jawada had been out here for a full shift. He could call for relief. He could go indoors and join Sister Fatima at a table with Disciple Harun al-Baghdadi and six other men and women. Some would say that it was his duty to eat with them, to show all the refugees that old sins were forgiven.
Jawada did not move. He would give his life for Sister Fatima, but he would not break bread with her. Not even if his superiors commanded it. If they knew that she had asked for him, they might give the order, so she had been careful never to put it into words. A suggestion, perhaps, but never a true invitation. It was a kindness, and only iron discipline kept him from marching through the doors and tearing all of them apart.
They were right, of course. Director Granger and Director Litvinov. This was the only path to victory. GDI would reach out to the people who hoped for a better world, and they would offer them an alternative to Nod's madness. You could not defeat Nod by claiming a city or even a nation; the Brotherhood would always find another place to hide and plot. An insurgent swam in the sea of the people, and so you could only end an insurgency by draining the sea. By cutting Nod off from the recruits that were the Brotherhood's lifeblood, and turning those soldiers to the cause of true peace.
They were right, and they would never understand. They had never huddled in a ditch for a day and a night while a column of Nod soldiers marched past, singing praise to Father Kane. They had never seen the piled corpses burning or heard the screams of the living souls trapped beneath the dead. Jawada was a soldier, and he would serve. He would obey. He would not forgive.
His sister did not understand. Taraji had sworn an oath, just like Jawada. She dreamed of a world made clean of their madness and poison, just like Jawada, but she did not realize that Granger had offered them that vision. She only saw treachery, justice set aside for the sake of convenience. Her dead- their dead- would not be avenged.
She was not wrong. The blood debt would not be paid. All that remained of the Purifying Flame Chapter of the Black Hand ate within the fortress, and Jawada stood guard to keep them safe while Taraji damned Parliament for their betrayal. They had fought for GDI, and they had died for GDI, and GDI had made peace with the murderers of his people. But he could understand, as she did not, that the price was worth paying.
Victory requires sacrifice.
Victory requires sacrifice.
The Brotherhood of Nod had always understood that principle of warfare. Sometimes they had taken it too far, glorifying sacrifice for its own sake, sending wave after wave of suicide bombers against a fortified position in a desperate attempt to prove their devotion to their "Prophet". But for all of their madness, there was still something to learn from the enemy.
The Brotherhood's forces lacked the equipment and training of Initiative soldiers. Their soldiers often went into battle without close air support or artillery or even body armor, but they still fought. And they lost, time and time again. Even Krukov, who was the best of the warlords in a conventional battle, had been badly defeated at Saint Petersburg.
Every Tiberium War had ended in a defeat for Nod. Yet they returned after each defeat, driven by their faith in the Prophet and his vision. GDI had not secured a true, lasting victory, and Jawada Okoro had almost started to believe that they never could.
He had been wrong.
"Kane's Peace upon you, brothers and sisters." Fatima was an old woman, but her voice carried clearly through the night. "Be welcome within our walls, guests. Take this bread, in the Name of Kane."
"In the Name of Kane," the soldier said, "I swear to Peace within these walls. May this oath bind us all."
The rest of them repeated the words. Jawada would take their weapons, of course; the truce was sacred, but everyone understood the need for practicality. A handful of the fanatics had managed to smuggle explosives into the shelter only a week ago, hiding their bombs within their own bodies. More than a hundred refugees had died in an instant, but the flow had not stopped. The risk of death from a hidden bomb meant little compared to the slow, certain death that awaited them in the Tiberium fields.
One by one, the soldiers laid down their rifles, moving deliberately under the guns of Jawada's troopers. Zone armor could shrug off small arms fire, and he had chosen his soldiers very carefully. Sheltered children of the Blue Zones, professionals who knew how to obey orders. They were loyal sons and daughters of the Initiative, but the war against Nod was not personal for them.
Fatima embraced each one of them, ignoring the risk of a hidden knife. Her courage would kill her one day, but her death would be another victory for the Initiative. Sister Fatima, holy and blessed, murdered by treachery. A martyr for the cause of peace.
They made their way through the compound gates, drawn by the smell of food. There was a feast waiting for the newcomers, or at least a feast by local standards. They would have work to busy their hands, and in time their guns would be returned to them. Most of the Home Guard were Nod veterans, and it was only a matter of time before the Initiative started letting them into ZOCOM. The thought disgusted Jawanda, but some cold, distant part of him could already see the advantages.
Fatima said, "Blessings upon you, Colonel Okoro." She did not say whose blessings. "All the world sees that Director Litvinov has continued the work of Director Granger. The Initiative holds Power, but they seek Peace."
They had always sought peace. From the very beginning. While Fatima and her fellow cultists were trying to kill the planet, Jawada had been fighting to save the world. Nod propaganda liked to boast of their concern for the downtrodden, holding up examples of their charity even as they gleefully spread the poison that murdered billions.
The worst sins of GDI- and Jawada did not deny that they had sinned- were nothing besides what Nod had done. Hitler and Stalin and Mao together paled in comparison to the "Prophet". He longed to share his thoughts on "Father Kane" with the good Sister, but even if he was not under discipline there would be no purpose. Fatima would merely say that the Prophet was misunderstood, that subordinates had disobeyed his commands. Even here, among those who had turned away from the Brotherhood and made peace with GDI, the name of Kane was sacred.
"Lives beyond counting," she said reverently. "It would have been easy to turn away, Colonel. To abandon your enemies to their fate. But you chose otherwise."
"Yes, Sister." It had not been easy. Jawada could understand the children, and the civilians. The soldiers had been...difficult. Almost impossible. The urge to drive an armored fist through Sister Fatima's kindly old face was almost overwhelming, but he fought it back.
Fatima said, "I will go to eat now, Colonel Okoro. Please tell me if I am needed at the gates." She turned and was gone, leaving Okoro alone by the battered steel doors.
Jawada had been out here for a full shift. He could call for relief. He could go indoors and join Sister Fatima at a table with Disciple Harun al-Baghdadi and six other men and women. Some would say that it was his duty to eat with them, to show all the refugees that old sins were forgiven.
Jawada did not move. He would give his life for Sister Fatima, but he would not break bread with her. Not even if his superiors commanded it. If they knew that she had asked for him, they might give the order, so she had been careful never to put it into words. A suggestion, perhaps, but never a true invitation. It was a kindness, and only iron discipline kept him from marching through the doors and tearing all of them apart.
They were right, of course. Director Granger and Director Litvinov. This was the only path to victory. GDI would reach out to the people who hoped for a better world, and they would offer them an alternative to Nod's madness. You could not defeat Nod by claiming a city or even a nation; the Brotherhood would always find another place to hide and plot. An insurgent swam in the sea of the people, and so you could only end an insurgency by draining the sea. By cutting Nod off from the recruits that were the Brotherhood's lifeblood, and turning those soldiers to the cause of true peace.
They were right, and they would never understand. They had never huddled in a ditch for a day and a night while a column of Nod soldiers marched past, singing praise to Father Kane. They had never seen the piled corpses burning or heard the screams of the living souls trapped beneath the dead. Jawada was a soldier, and he would serve. He would obey. He would not forgive.
His sister did not understand. Taraji had sworn an oath, just like Jawada. She dreamed of a world made clean of their madness and poison, just like Jawada, but she did not realize that Granger had offered them that vision. She only saw treachery, justice set aside for the sake of convenience. Her dead- their dead- would not be avenged.
She was not wrong. The blood debt would not be paid. All that remained of the Purifying Flame Chapter of the Black Hand ate within the fortress, and Jawada stood guard to keep them safe while Taraji damned Parliament for their betrayal. They had fought for GDI, and they had died for GDI, and GDI had made peace with the murderers of his people. But he could understand, as she did not, that the price was worth paying.
Victory requires sacrifice.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Just to get discussion flowing...
TENTATIVE 2059Q3 BUDGET: 760+50 = 810 RpT
Unless I miscalculate...
615 + (Entire Tiberium Budget) + (Three Service Dice)/810 R
7/7 Free dice used
[] Plan Tentative 2059Q3 Plan- 200R on Military, ASAT 4, Auroras, Super Orcas, Bureaucrats.
Infrastructure 5/5 Dice + 2 Free Dice 105 R
-[] Integrated Cargo System 307/800 (7 Dice, 105 R) (82% chance)
Heavy Industry 4/4 Dice 95 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 3) 258/300 (1 Die, 20 R) (97% chance)
-[] Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 336/500 (3 Dice, 75 R) (92% chance)
Light and Chemical Industry 4/4 Dice 60 R
-[] T-Glass Foundries (Stage 1) 117/350 (3 Dice, 45R) (83% chance)
Agriculture 3/3 Dice 30 R
-[] Perennial Aquaponics Bays (Stage 3) 163/350 (1 Die, 10 R) (1/2 median)
-[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction 0/150 (2 Dice, 20 R) (51+ % chance)
(this may get swapped out for kudzu plantations, but I do feel like we should do this round of the SFSC)
Tiberium 6/6 Dice ??? R
??? (hard to be sure just yet)
Key concerns:
-What are our options for offshore tiberium mining?
-If we spend two Military dice on widely separate MARV projects, one of them being a hub, can we invest further Tiberium dice in MARV hub construction?
-Please no do not build tiberium power plants this turn, we are not that desperate.
Orbital 5/5 Dice 100 R
-[] GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 474/1425 (4 dice, 80 R) (97.4% chance)
and ONE OF
-[] Study Novel Material 0/50 (1 Die, 20 R) (83% chance)
OR
-[] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1) 0/80 (1 Die, 20 R) (58% chance of Phase 1, 1/3.25 median to Phase 2, 1/8 median to Phase 3)
Services ?/4 Dice 20+?? R
-[] Early Prototype General Artificial Intelligence Development 66/120 (1 Die, 20 R) (89% chance)
-[] (OTHER STUFF?)
Military 6/6 Dice + 5 Free Dice + Bureaucrats 205 R
-[] ASAT Defense System (Phase 4) 36/220 (3 Dice, 60 R) (86+ % chance)
-[] Universal Rocket Launch System Deployment (Phase 2) 105/200 (1 Die, 15 R) (41% chance)
-[] Orca Refit Deployment 0/200 (3 Dice, 45 R) (68% chance)
-[] RZ-3N? MARV Hub (Beirut) 0/125 (1 Die, 20 R) (10% chance, but hopefully spend Tib dice?)
-[] MARV Fleet YZ-6a (Savannah) 182/210, (Bureaucracy, 20 R) (~88% chance)
-[] Aurora Bomber Deployment 0/??? (3 Dice, 45 R) (??% chance, hopefully allows strike on Krukov)
Bureaucracy 3/3 Dice
-[] Bureaucratic Assistance (Savannah MARV fleet)
-[] Make Political Promises (see what we can get for Columbia, if we don't like the offer, forget it)
TENTATIVE 2059Q3 BUDGET: 760+50 = 810 RpT
Unless I miscalculate...
615 + (Entire Tiberium Budget) + (Three Service Dice)/810 R
7/7 Free dice used
[] Plan Tentative 2059Q3 Plan- 200R on Military, ASAT 4, Auroras, Super Orcas, Bureaucrats.
Infrastructure 5/5 Dice + 2 Free Dice 105 R
-[] Integrated Cargo System 307/800 (7 Dice, 105 R) (82% chance)
Heavy Industry 4/4 Dice 95 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 3) 258/300 (1 Die, 20 R) (97% chance)
-[] Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 336/500 (3 Dice, 75 R) (92% chance)
Light and Chemical Industry 4/4 Dice 60 R
-[] T-Glass Foundries (Stage 1) 117/350 (3 Dice, 45R) (83% chance)
Agriculture 3/3 Dice 30 R
-[] Perennial Aquaponics Bays (Stage 3) 163/350 (1 Die, 10 R) (1/2 median)
-[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction 0/150 (2 Dice, 20 R) (51+ % chance)
(this may get swapped out for kudzu plantations, but I do feel like we should do this round of the SFSC)
Tiberium 6/6 Dice ??? R
??? (hard to be sure just yet)
Key concerns:
-What are our options for offshore tiberium mining?
-If we spend two Military dice on widely separate MARV projects, one of them being a hub, can we invest further Tiberium dice in MARV hub construction?
-Please no do not build tiberium power plants this turn, we are not that desperate.
Orbital 5/5 Dice 100 R
-[] GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 474/1425 (4 dice, 80 R) (97.4% chance)
and ONE OF
-[] Study Novel Material 0/50 (1 Die, 20 R) (83% chance)
OR
-[] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1) 0/80 (1 Die, 20 R) (58% chance of Phase 1, 1/3.25 median to Phase 2, 1/8 median to Phase 3)
Services ?/4 Dice 20+?? R
-[] Early Prototype General Artificial Intelligence Development 66/120 (1 Die, 20 R) (89% chance)
-[] (OTHER STUFF?)
Military 6/6 Dice + 5 Free Dice + Bureaucrats 205 R
-[] ASAT Defense System (Phase 4) 36/220 (3 Dice, 60 R) (86+ % chance)
-[] Universal Rocket Launch System Deployment (Phase 2) 105/200 (1 Die, 15 R) (41% chance)
-[] Orca Refit Deployment 0/200 (3 Dice, 45 R) (68% chance)
-[] RZ-3N? MARV Hub (Beirut) 0/125 (1 Die, 20 R) (10% chance, but hopefully spend Tib dice?)
-[] MARV Fleet YZ-6a (Savannah) 182/210, (Bureaucracy, 20 R) (~88% chance)
-[] Aurora Bomber Deployment 0/??? (3 Dice, 45 R) (??% chance, hopefully allows strike on Krukov)
Bureaucracy 3/3 Dice
-[] Bureaucratic Assistance (Savannah MARV fleet)
-[] Make Political Promises (see what we can get for Columbia, if we don't like the offer, forget it)
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With the station almost complete we can slow down to 6 or 7 orbital dice for a bit:
-[] GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 1227/1425 2 dice 40R 21%, 3 dice 60R 77%, 4 dice 80R 97%, 5 dice 100R 99%
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
Is this a good idea in the context of consistently poor average dice rolls?
Dmol8
The Undead Unhinged Lunatic of the Web
- Location
- Belgrade,Serbia
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
I said ethanol synthesis because then we wouldn't need to reinvent the wheel on combustion engines as ethanol works just fine in our modern ones. And I'm referring to benzine toxicity regarding terror bombings because NOD likes to do atrocities and as such I figure GDI would be incentivized to make it harder to let NOD get their hands on benzine.
Bummer. Thank you for your work all the same.
I've been telling you guys I want more mitigation. Help me help you.
Working on it. We're all working on it.
You are definitely new here. AccomplishingProvidence is Schrodinger's Kane. Until Kane comes back and start acting publicly again we won't have the option of knowing if that user is or is not Kane.
And Tiberium is sleeping after a tantrum. Good rolls HousePet.
There are the new invisible aircraft that came into use last turn and the bio-mechanical horrors out of India.
Oh wow. You're optimistic that it will only be a 10 page argument.
Not really. We have consistently frontloaded our gains to mitigate these sort of rolls and have pounced on getting every edge we can from critical successes while mitigating every critical failure. We can lose, but it will never be simply from low rolling Dice.
In other words is Ithillid cursed?
And every quest that decided to use off-site dice rollers still complain about those too.
Ah. Now I see. SV's dice roller isn't designed to be reliably random, but rather to generate salt.
Every game of fortune is designed to generate salt. I've had a game of Settlers of Catan where everyone reliably rolled 11s for most of the game.
👆This.
Oh. Well yeah we could. So long as I throw them since my lucky number is 13.
Alright since only @Lightwhispers did a mathpost again:
here is my own mathpost:
Integrated Cargo System 0+88+19+10+45+10+135 = 307/800
Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants 199+37+22 = 258/300
Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 146+72+7+45+66 = 336/500
Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner Phase 3 260+63+17 = 340/320 Phase 4 20/640 +2 CapG +1 E
T-Glass Foundries Stage 1 0+7+17+42+51 = 117/350
Perennial Aquaponics Bays Stage 3 163+2+8+34 = 207/350
Wadmalaw Kudzu Development 0+45+22 = 67/40
Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Development 0+25+35 = 60/50 -5 PS
Offshore Tiberium Harvester Stations 148+23+30 = 201/200 -5 PS +25 Resources per Turn
GDSS Philadelphia II Phase 5 474+96+67+93+31+19+87+89+31+42+198 = 1227/1425
Tissue Replacement Therapy Development 42+8+27 = 77/60
Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Development 33+21+27 = 81/60
Shell Plants Phase 4 128+87+23+32+57 = 327/300 Phase 5 27/150 -2 E
Orbital Defense Laser Development 0+83+24 = 107/40
Aurora Strike Bomber Development 0+8+24+10 = 42/40 Completes with a Semi-Canon Omake
Havoc Scout Deployment Brest 77+82+19 = 178/110 -2 E
Red Zone 7 South Mobile Bay Super MARV Fleet 0+8+27+68+40+36+55+38+120 = 392/210 +3 Red Zone Mitigation +25 Resources per Turn
Yellow Zone 6a Savannah Super MARV Fleet 182/210
Reclamator Hub Yellow Zone 6a Savannah 84+80+19 = 183/125
Reclamator Hub Blue Zone 2 Richmond 58/125
Rationalize Yellow Zones (New) 22+84+61+51 = 218 DC 90 PASS
-3 Mitigation from Mutation Roll
Capital Goods: 3+2 = 5
Energy: 9+1-2-2 = 6
Political Support: 80-5-5 = 70
Resources per Turn: 760+25+25 = 810
Tiberium Processing Capacity: 1720+25+25 = 1770/2370
Yellow Zone:
Mitigation: 86-3 = 83
Red Zone:
Mitigation: 70-3+3 = 70
Alright preliminary plan incoming as soon as I can work it in.
- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Whoopsie. That was actually an artifact of copy-pasting; you may note that in the old version of the draft plan, the 'top line' of Orbital had been corrected to five dice, even while the line for the Philadelphia construction itself was still saying "nine dice out of median thirteen expected" same as last turn.
I'm going to go back and edit that...
We have literally no valid reason to expect the bad average dice rolls to persist indefinitely. The gambler's fallacy of believing in "streaks" (usually whenever it's convenient, but not always) is not a good way to predict the actions of a random number generator.
The 2 and 8 we rolled on Perennials could just as easily have been a 98 and a 92. If they had, our average dice rolls would be about four points higher for the turn and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
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- Location
- Norway
"Streaks" are not a good way to predict the actions of a random number generator which is known to have a uniform distribution. Important clause! If you miss it, you can end up losing a lot of money betting against a guy with weighted dice.
(IIRC, this forum uses a Mersenne Twister distribution. It's within 1% of uniform, but not good enough for cryptography.)
Dmol8
The Undead Unhinged Lunatic of the Web
- Location
- Belgrade,Serbia
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
Preliminary plan for Q3 of 2059:
Political Support: 70
SCIENCE Meter: 4/4
Free Dice: 7
Housing: +31 (16 Low Quality)
Energy: +6 (+4 Reserve)
Logistics: +7
Food: +21 (+8 Reserve)
Health: +11 (3 Consumed)
Capital Goods: +5
Stable Transuranics: +13
Consumer Goods: +43
Labor: +38
Tiberium Processing Capacity (1770/2370)
Green Zone:
Water: +6
Abatement: 83
Red Zone:
Abatement: 70
Infrastructure: +28
Heavy Industry: +23
Light and Chemical Industry: +18
Agriculture: +18
Tiberium: +31
Orbital Industry: +18
Services: +23
Military: +20
Bureaucracy: +18
+5 Development
+5 Technology Working Groups
+5 Station Building
Security Reviews:
Military 2 turns ago 2059 Q1
Agriculture 3 turn ago 2058 Q4
Light/Chem 4 turn ago 2058 Q3
Services 5 turns ago 2058 Q2
Orbital 7 turns ago 2057 Q4
Heavy Ind 8 turns ago 2057 Q3
Tiberium 9 turns ago 2057 Q2
Bureaucracy 10 turns ago 2057 Q1
Infrastructure 11 turns ago 2056 Q4
[ ] Plan Stocking the Piles 3.0:
Infrastructure 5/5 Dice + 2 Free Die 105 Resources
-[ ] Integrated Cargo System 307/800 15 Resources per Die -2 Lab - 2 E -2 CapG on Completion, 7 Dice = 105 Resources
Heavy Industry 4/4 Dice 95 Resources
-[ ] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 3) 258/300 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 336/500 25 Resources per Die -4 Lab -8 E on Completion, 2 Die = 75 Resources
Light and Chemical Industry 4/4 Dice 60 Resources
-[ ] T-Glass Foundries (Stage 1) (New) 117/350 15 Resources per Die -1 STU -2 Energy on Completion, 4 Dice = 60 Resources
Agriculture 3/3 Dice 40 Resources
-[ ] Perennial Aquaponics Bays (Stage 3) (updated) 207/350 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Wadmalaw Kudzu Plantations 0/??? 20? Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
Tiberium 6/6 Dice 150 Resources
-[ ] Tiberium Processing Refits (Phase 2) (Updated) 20/100 20 Resources per Die -250 PC if not completed, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment Red Zone 6 0/120 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
-[ ] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment Red Zone 7 0/120 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
-[ ] Railgun Harvester Factory (Updated) Dandong 0/70 10 Resources per Die -2 E -1 Lab on Completion, 1 Die = 10 Resources
Orbital 5/5 Dice 100 Resources
-[ ] GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 1227/1425 20 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 80 Resources
-[ ] Study Novel Material 0/50 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
Services 4/4 Dice 70 Resources
-[ ] Tissue Replacement Therapy Deployment 0/??? 20? Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Domestic Animal Programs 0/200 10 Resources per Die -3 F on Completion, 1 Die = 10 Resources
-[ ] Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Deployment 0/??? 20? Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Early Prototype General Artificial Intelligence Development 66/120 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
Military 6/6 Dice + 5 Free Dice 180 Resources:
-[ ] Stealth Disruptor Development 0/40 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
-[ ] Reclamator Hub Blue Zone 2 Richmond 58/125 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Reclamator Fleet Yellow Zone 6a Savannah 182/210 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Aurora Strike Bomber Deployment 0/??? 15? Resources per Die, 2 Die = 30 Resources
-[ ] Shell Plants (Phase 5) 27/150 10 Resources per Die -1 E on Completion, 2 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Orca Refit Deployment 0/200 15 Resources per Die -1 CapG on Completion, 3 Dice = 45 Resources
-[ ] Havoc Scout Mech Deployment (New) Seoul 92/110 10 Resources per Die -2 E on Completion, 1 Administrative Die = 10 Resources
-[ ] Tactical Plasma Weapon Development 0/40 30 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 30 Resources
Bureaucracy 3/3 Dice:
-[ ] Administrative Assistance Havoc Scout Mech Deployment (New) Seoul 2 Die
-[ ] Make Political Promises 1 Die
105+95+60+40+150+100+70+190 = 810/810
-2 Lab -2 E -2 CapG -4 Lab -8 E -1 STU -2 E -1 Lab -2 E -1 E -1 CapG -2 E means that the minimum for this plan is +35 Labor, -7 Energy, +2 Capital Goods and +12 Stable Transuranics. Let's hope we complete a round of Fusion this turn.
So here's what my preliminary plan does:
- 7 Dice on Integrated Cargo System to patch one of our strategic weaknesses. 82% chance and an Average DC of 55 to complete.
- 1 Die on Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants for a 97% chance and a DC of 4 to complete Phase 3. We will need Phase 4 next turn.
- 3 Dice on Blue Zone Heavy Industry Sectors for a 92% chance and an Average DC of 27.
- 4 Dice on T-Glass Foundries for a 83% chance and an Average DC of 37.
- 2 Die on Perennial Aquaponics Bays for a 59% chance and an Average DC of 46.
- 1 Die on Wadmalaw Kudzu Deployment. I fully expect this to cost 15 Resources per Die, but no point in risking it since I'm planning on slow rolling Perennials I can just swap to 2 Die on Kudzu deplyoment if my expectations are met.
- 1 Die on Tiberium Processing Refits for a 67% chance and a DC of 34 to complete another Phase of it.
- 2 Die each on Tiberium Inhibitor Deplyoments in Red Zone 6 and 7. 91% chance and an Average DC of 22 to complete.
- 1 Die on Railgun Harvester Factory in Dandong as that is the one closest to the East Asia Tiberium Fields because we are going after Krukov so might as well go after his Tiberium supply as well. 77% chance and a DC of 24.
- 4 Dice on GDSS Philadelphia II to get Phase 5 completed. 97% chance and an Average DC of 28 to complete.
- 1 Die on Studying Novel Material. 84% chance and a DC of 17 to complete if it doesn't count as a Technology Working Group. If it does count as one then an 89% chance and a DC if 12 to complete.
- 1 Die on Tissue Replacement Therapy Deployment to take up space for that option.
- 1 Die on Domestic Animal Programs since it doesn't spend Health. 1/3 Median and no DC that can succeed.
- 1 Die on Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Deployment if it happens to be needed.
- 1 Die on Early Prototype General Artificial Intelligence Development to complete it. Since it's an Early Prototype there probably won't be a follow up action for quite some time. 90% chance and a DC of 11 to complete.
- 1 Die on Stealth Disruptor Development for a 100% chance and a DC of 2 to complete.
- 1 Die on the Blue Zone Marv Hub we overcompleted towards. 69% Chance and a DC of 32 to complete it and have it act as an investment break.
- 1 Die on Super MARV fleet in Savannah for a 100% chance and a DC of 2 to complete.
- 2 Die on Aurora Deployment so I can be sure we bomb Krukov next turn. No idea how much building an Aurora factory will take, but we can't slow roll the one that will supply the Russian battlefields.
- 2 Die on Shell Plants to get the Shell stockpile built up. 78% chance and an average DC of 34 to complete Phase 5. Plan goal is Phase 6.
- 3 Dice on Orca Refit. It's time it was done. 70% chance and an Average DC of 42 to complete.
- 2 Bureaucracy Dice to get 1 Administrative Die on the Seoul Havoc Factory. 98% chance and a DC of 3 to complete.
- 1 Die on Talons Plasma Weapon Development because:
it doesn't have a Deployment Action we need to do for the Talons. So a 100% chance and a DC of 2 to complete a plan goal with this Die so long as we can pay 30 Resources for it. Perfect for a turn before we need to start paying for a lot more Dice from Philadelphia II completing.
- 1 Die on Making Political Promises to get a few things more into the Plan for both moral and political gain.
Political Support: 70
SCIENCE Meter: 4/4
Free Dice: 7
Housing: +31 (16 Low Quality)
Energy: +6 (+4 Reserve)
Logistics: +7
Food: +21 (+8 Reserve)
Health: +11 (3 Consumed)
Capital Goods: +5
Stable Transuranics: +13
Consumer Goods: +43
Labor: +38
Tiberium Processing Capacity (1770/2370)
Green Zone:
Water: +6
Abatement: 83
Red Zone:
Abatement: 70
Infrastructure: +28
Heavy Industry: +23
Light and Chemical Industry: +18
Agriculture: +18
Tiberium: +31
Orbital Industry: +18
Services: +23
Military: +20
Bureaucracy: +18
+5 Development
+5 Technology Working Groups
+5 Station Building
Security Reviews:
Military 2 turns ago 2059 Q1
Agriculture 3 turn ago 2058 Q4
Light/Chem 4 turn ago 2058 Q3
Services 5 turns ago 2058 Q2
Orbital 7 turns ago 2057 Q4
Heavy Ind 8 turns ago 2057 Q3
Tiberium 9 turns ago 2057 Q2
Bureaucracy 10 turns ago 2057 Q1
Infrastructure 11 turns ago 2056 Q4
[ ] Plan Stocking the Piles 3.0:
Infrastructure 5/5 Dice + 2 Free Die 105 Resources
-[ ] Integrated Cargo System 307/800 15 Resources per Die -2 Lab - 2 E -2 CapG on Completion, 7 Dice = 105 Resources
Heavy Industry 4/4 Dice 95 Resources
-[ ] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 3) 258/300 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Blue Zone Heavy Industrial Sectors 336/500 25 Resources per Die -4 Lab -8 E on Completion, 2 Die = 75 Resources
Light and Chemical Industry 4/4 Dice 60 Resources
-[ ] T-Glass Foundries (Stage 1) (New) 117/350 15 Resources per Die -1 STU -2 Energy on Completion, 4 Dice = 60 Resources
Agriculture 3/3 Dice 40 Resources
-[ ] Perennial Aquaponics Bays (Stage 3) (updated) 207/350 10 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Wadmalaw Kudzu Plantations 0/??? 20? Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
Tiberium 6/6 Dice 150 Resources
-[ ] Tiberium Processing Refits (Phase 2) (Updated) 20/100 20 Resources per Die -250 PC if not completed, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment Red Zone 6 0/120 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
-[ ] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment Red Zone 7 0/120 30 Resources per Die, 2 Die = 60 Resources
-[ ] Railgun Harvester Factory (Updated) Dandong 0/70 10 Resources per Die -2 E -1 Lab on Completion, 1 Die = 10 Resources
Orbital 5/5 Dice 100 Resources
-[ ] GDSS Philadelphia II (Phase 5) 1227/1425 20 Resources per Die, 4 Dice = 80 Resources
-[ ] Study Novel Material 0/50 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
Services 4/4 Dice 70 Resources
-[ ] Tissue Replacement Therapy Deployment 0/??? 20? Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Domestic Animal Programs 0/200 10 Resources per Die -3 F on Completion, 1 Die = 10 Resources
-[ ] Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Deployment 0/??? 20? Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Early Prototype General Artificial Intelligence Development 66/120 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
Military 6/6 Dice + 5 Free Dice 180 Resources:
-[ ] Stealth Disruptor Development 0/40 15 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 15 Resources
-[ ] Reclamator Hub Blue Zone 2 Richmond 58/125 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Reclamator Fleet Yellow Zone 6a Savannah 182/210 20 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Aurora Strike Bomber Deployment 0/??? 15? Resources per Die, 2 Die = 30 Resources
-[ ] Shell Plants (Phase 5) 27/150 10 Resources per Die -1 E on Completion, 2 Die = 20 Resources
-[ ] Orca Refit Deployment 0/200 15 Resources per Die -1 CapG on Completion, 3 Dice = 45 Resources
-[ ] Havoc Scout Mech Deployment (New) Seoul 92/110 10 Resources per Die -2 E on Completion, 1 Administrative Die = 10 Resources
-[ ] Tactical Plasma Weapon Development 0/40 30 Resources per Die, 1 Die = 30 Resources
Bureaucracy 3/3 Dice:
-[ ] Administrative Assistance Havoc Scout Mech Deployment (New) Seoul 2 Die
-[ ] Make Political Promises 1 Die
105+95+60+40+150+100+70+190 = 810/810
-2 Lab -2 E -2 CapG -4 Lab -8 E -1 STU -2 E -1 Lab -2 E -1 E -1 CapG -2 E means that the minimum for this plan is +35 Labor, -7 Energy, +2 Capital Goods and +12 Stable Transuranics. Let's hope we complete a round of Fusion this turn.
So here's what my preliminary plan does:
- 7 Dice on Integrated Cargo System to patch one of our strategic weaknesses. 82% chance and an Average DC of 55 to complete.
- 1 Die on Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants for a 97% chance and a DC of 4 to complete Phase 3. We will need Phase 4 next turn.
- 3 Dice on Blue Zone Heavy Industry Sectors for a 92% chance and an Average DC of 27.
- 4 Dice on T-Glass Foundries for a 83% chance and an Average DC of 37.
- 2 Die on Perennial Aquaponics Bays for a 59% chance and an Average DC of 46.
- 1 Die on Wadmalaw Kudzu Deployment. I fully expect this to cost 15 Resources per Die, but no point in risking it since I'm planning on slow rolling Perennials I can just swap to 2 Die on Kudzu deplyoment if my expectations are met.
- 1 Die on Tiberium Processing Refits for a 67% chance and a DC of 34 to complete another Phase of it.
- 2 Die each on Tiberium Inhibitor Deplyoments in Red Zone 6 and 7. 91% chance and an Average DC of 22 to complete.
- 1 Die on Railgun Harvester Factory in Dandong as that is the one closest to the East Asia Tiberium Fields because we are going after Krukov so might as well go after his Tiberium supply as well. 77% chance and a DC of 24.
- 4 Dice on GDSS Philadelphia II to get Phase 5 completed. 97% chance and an Average DC of 28 to complete.
- 1 Die on Studying Novel Material. 84% chance and a DC of 17 to complete if it doesn't count as a Technology Working Group. If it does count as one then an 89% chance and a DC if 12 to complete.
- 1 Die on Tissue Replacement Therapy Deployment to take up space for that option.
- 1 Die on Domestic Animal Programs since it doesn't spend Health. 1/3 Median and no DC that can succeed.
- 1 Die on Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Deployment if it happens to be needed.
- 1 Die on Early Prototype General Artificial Intelligence Development to complete it. Since it's an Early Prototype there probably won't be a follow up action for quite some time. 90% chance and a DC of 11 to complete.
- 1 Die on Stealth Disruptor Development for a 100% chance and a DC of 2 to complete.
- 1 Die on the Blue Zone Marv Hub we overcompleted towards. 69% Chance and a DC of 32 to complete it and have it act as an investment break.
- 1 Die on Super MARV fleet in Savannah for a 100% chance and a DC of 2 to complete.
- 2 Die on Aurora Deployment so I can be sure we bomb Krukov next turn. No idea how much building an Aurora factory will take, but we can't slow roll the one that will supply the Russian battlefields.
- 2 Die on Shell Plants to get the Shell stockpile built up. 78% chance and an average DC of 34 to complete Phase 5. Plan goal is Phase 6.
- 3 Dice on Orca Refit. It's time it was done. 70% chance and an Average DC of 42 to complete.
- 2 Bureaucracy Dice to get 1 Administrative Die on the Seoul Havoc Factory. 98% chance and a DC of 3 to complete.
- 1 Die on Talons Plasma Weapon Development because:
it doesn't have a Deployment Action we need to do for the Talons. So a 100% chance and a DC of 2 to complete a plan goal with this Die so long as we can pay 30 Resources for it. Perfect for a turn before we need to start paying for a lot more Dice from Philadelphia II completing.
- 1 Die on Making Political Promises to get a few things more into the Plan for both moral and political gain.
- Our Strategic Needs are to keep the confidence level of all our military branches High and to have enough Resources per Turn to activate all Dice while gaining more Dice.
- Our Strategic Weaknesses currently are a lack of full new generation Tiberium processing (which we can mitigate by building new processing plants, but isn't going away until we do both the retrofit and the new generation of Tiberium storage/silos), not enough consumables (which can be fixed by building up ammo, ablat and sensor stockpiles) and not enough slack in our Logistics system for fighting a war (which we can fix by building up more Logistics projects).
- Our Operational Needs are a better distribution of personnel (civilian and military), a better defensive envelope around the Earth so NOD can't use the orbits against us (so the completion of the ASAT system and the installment of new armaments for it), rapid expansion of space infrastructure and Tiberium abatement in all environments (we are currently not doing enough to mine it out of Blue Zones, we are maybe not cleaning enough of the ocean floor, the Red Zones don't have complete containment lines and we are not doing enough in Glacier Mining).
- Our Operational Weaknesses currently are a lack of completed Railways in Blue and Green Zones for better direct population transfer, a lack of Integrated Cargo System for better ablation of Logistics during a war, a lack of Zone Armor so that ZOCOM isn't doing the job of the regular military and a lack of enough quality Housing for our population.
- Our Tactical Needs are better education for all (Litvinov is going to be really helpful with this), Labor pool expansions, Mental Health treatment actions, more options in Orbital Supremacy (Orbital Lasers need the new Laser Tech, High Altitude Ion Cannons, Orbital Nuclear Stockpiles and Orbital Strike Regimental Team Combat Stations), deescalation of everyday life from the war footing and better preparation of our population for participation in military actions.
- Our Tactical Weaknesses currently are an insufficient amount of Yellow Zone Fortress Cities, lack of NOD anti-stealth deployment, the Himalayan (isolated, which can be fixed with a MARV Hub and Karachi), South African (too many eggs in one basket, can be mitigated with Reykjavik) and Arabian Blue Zones (ZOCOM HQ and the Blue Zone from which the Mecca complex is run, needs a MARV Hub and more Fortress Cities), Security Reviews (DC is still too high for 1 Die so we need Philadelphia II completed to be able to run two of them at the same time which will mitigate some problems), better local Food and Water supplies for the Green Zones and the lack of Plasma Shuttle Logistics which would enable better binding of the Blue Zones into a more coherent entity.
- Our Strategic Weaknesses currently are a lack of full new generation Tiberium processing (which we can mitigate by building new processing plants, but isn't going away until we do both the retrofit and the new generation of Tiberium storage/silos), not enough consumables (which can be fixed by building up ammo, ablat and sensor stockpiles) and not enough slack in our Logistics system for fighting a war (which we can fix by building up more Logistics projects).
- Our Operational Needs are a better distribution of personnel (civilian and military), a better defensive envelope around the Earth so NOD can't use the orbits against us (so the completion of the ASAT system and the installment of new armaments for it), rapid expansion of space infrastructure and Tiberium abatement in all environments (we are currently not doing enough to mine it out of Blue Zones, we are maybe not cleaning enough of the ocean floor, the Red Zones don't have complete containment lines and we are not doing enough in Glacier Mining).
- Our Operational Weaknesses currently are a lack of completed Railways in Blue and Green Zones for better direct population transfer, a lack of Integrated Cargo System for better ablation of Logistics during a war, a lack of Zone Armor so that ZOCOM isn't doing the job of the regular military and a lack of enough quality Housing for our population.
- Our Tactical Needs are better education for all (Litvinov is going to be really helpful with this), Labor pool expansions, Mental Health treatment actions, more options in Orbital Supremacy (Orbital Lasers need the new Laser Tech, High Altitude Ion Cannons, Orbital Nuclear Stockpiles and Orbital Strike Regimental Team Combat Stations), deescalation of everyday life from the war footing and better preparation of our population for participation in military actions.
- Our Tactical Weaknesses currently are an insufficient amount of Yellow Zone Fortress Cities, lack of NOD anti-stealth deployment, the Himalayan (isolated, which can be fixed with a MARV Hub and Karachi), South African (too many eggs in one basket, can be mitigated with Reykjavik) and Arabian Blue Zones (ZOCOM HQ and the Blue Zone from which the Mecca complex is run, needs a MARV Hub and more Fortress Cities), Security Reviews (DC is still too high for 1 Die so we need Philadelphia II completed to be able to run two of them at the same time which will mitigate some problems), better local Food and Water supplies for the Green Zones and the lack of Plasma Shuttle Logistics which would enable better binding of the Blue Zones into a more coherent entity.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
okay, my math says we need 6.04 dice per turn if we complete philly next turn on avg of 50 and 6.45 dice per turn of avg of 45
Snowfire
Polyglot of Chimera
- Location
- Wordcats
I've had multiple conversations about this with operators (for reasons), and every single one of them has been very clear in saying that it's as random as it can easily be when examining all rolls made on the forum. If I recall correctly it's Mersenne Twister based, so pseudorandom, but doesn't connect to particular accounts or threads in the way you're implying. And at the end of the day, there's a reason that Mersenne is still used 20+ years after it was developed.